Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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GLOBIO-Aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems
Janse, J.H. ; Kuiper, J.J. ; Weijters, M.J. ; Westerbeek, E.P. ; Jeuken, M.H.J.L. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Alkemade, R. ; Mooij, W.M. ; Verhoeven, J.T.A. - \ 2015
Environmental Science & Policy 48 (2015). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 99 - 114.
Catchment - Cyanobacteria - Eutrophication - Hydrological disturbance - Lakes - Land use change - Rivers - Scenario analysis - Wetlands

Biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems - rivers, lakes and wetlands - is undergoing rapid global decline. Major drivers are land use change, eutrophication, hydrological disturbance, climate change, overexploitation and invasive species. We developed a global model for assessing the dominant human impacts on inland aquatic biodiversity. The system consists of a biodiversity model, named GLOBIO-Aquatic, that is embedded in the IMAGE model framework, i.e. linked to models for demography, economy, land use changes, climate change, nutrient emissions, a global hydrological model and a global map of water bodies. The biodiversity model is based on a recompilation of existing data, thereby scaling-up from local/regional case-studies to global trends. We compared species composition in impacted lakes, rivers and wetlands to that in comparable undisturbed systems. We focussed on broad categories of human-induced pressures that are relevant at the global scale. The drivers currently included are catchment land use changes and nutrient loading affecting water quality, and hydrological disturbance and climate change affecting water quantity. The resulting relative mean abundance of original species is used as indicator for biodiversity intactness. For lakes, we used dominance of harmful algal blooms as an additional indicator. The results show that there is a significant negative relation between biodiversity intactness and these stressors in all types of freshwater ecosystems. In heavily used catchments, standing water bodies would lose about 80% of their biodiversity intactness and running waters about 70%, while severe hydrological disturbance would result in losses of about 80% in running waters and more than 50% in floodplain wetlands. As an illustration, an analysis using the OECD 'baseline scenario' shows a considerable decline of the biodiversity intactness in still existing water bodies in 2000, especially in temperate and subtropical regions, and a further decline especially in tropical regions in 2050. Historical loss of wetland areas is not yet included in these results. The model may inform policy makers at the global level in what regions aquatic biodiversity will be affected most and by what causes, and allows for scenario analysis to evaluate policy options.

Mapping and modelling trade-offs and synergies between grazing intensity and ecosystem services in rangelands using global-scale datasets and models
Petz, K. ; Alkemade, J.R.M. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Schulp, C.J.E. ; Velde, M. van der; Leemans, R. - \ 2014
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 29 (2014). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 223 - 234.
net primary production - land-use - conservation priorities - livestock production - developing-countries - production systems - biodiversity - carbon - challenges - balance
Vast areas of rangelands across the world are grazed with increasing intensity, but interactions between livestock production, biodiversity and other ecosystem services are poorly studied. This study explicitly determines trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services and livestock grazing intensity on rangelands. Grazing intensity and its effects on forage utilization by livestock, carbon sequestration, erosion prevention and biodiversity are quantified and mapped, using global datasets and models. Results show that on average 4% of the biomass produced annually is consumed by livestock. On average, erosion prevention is 10% lower in areas with a high grazing intensity compared to areas with a low grazing intensity, whereas carbon emissions are more than four times higher under high grazing intensity compared to low grazing intensity. Rangelands with the highest grazing intensity are located in the Sahel, Pakistan, West India, Middle East, North Africa and parts of Brazil. These high grazing intensities result in carbon emissions, low biodiversity values, low capacity for erosion prevention and unsustainable forage utilization. Although the applied models simplify the processes of ecosystem service supply, our study provides a global overview of the consequences of grazing for biodiversity and ecosystem services. The expected increasing future demand for livestock products likely increase pressures on rangelands. Global-scale models can help to identify targets and target areas for international policies aiming at sustainable future use of these rangelands.
How sectors can contribute to sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity
Kok, M. ; Alkemade, R. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Boelee, E. ; Christensen, V. ; Eerdt, M. van; Esch, S. van der; Janse, J. ; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E. ; Kram, T. ; Lazarova, T. ; Linderhof, V.G.M. ; Lucas, P. ; Mandryk, M. ; Meijer, J. ; Oorschot, M. van; Teh, L. ; Hoof, L.J.W. van; Westhoek, H. ; Zagt, R. - \ 2014
The Hague : PBL (CBD technical series no. 79) - ISBN 9292255533 - 230
Scenarios of biodiversity loss in southern Africa in the 21st century
Biggs, R.H. ; Simons, H. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Scholes, R.J. ; Eickhout, B. ; Vuuren, D. van; Alkemade, R. - \ 2008
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 18 (2008)2. - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 296 - 309.
anthropogenic climate-change - intactness index - global impacts - diversity - vulnerability - model - conservation - ecosystems - management - stability
The rich biodiversity of southern Africa has to date been relatively unimpacted by the activities of modern society, but to what degree will this situation persist into the 21st century? We use a leading global environmental assessment model (IMAGE) to explore future land use and climate change in southern Africa under the scenarios developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We assess the impacts on terrestrial biodiversity using the Biodiversity Intactness Index, which gives the average change in population size relative to the pre-modern state, across all terrestrial species of plants and vertebrates. Over the coming century, we project absolute declines in the average population sizes of these taxa that are two to three times greater than the reductions that have occurred since circa 1700. Our results highlight the immense challenges faced by efforts to reduce rates of biodiversity loss in southern Africa, even under relatively optimistic scenarios. These results stress the urgent need for better aligning biodiversity conservation and development priorities in the region. Furthermore, we suggest that context-sensitive conservation targets that account for the development imperatives in different parts of the region are needed.
Cross-roads of planet earth's life : exploring means to meet the 2010 biodiversity target : solution-oriented scenarios for Global Biodiversity Outlook 2
Brink, B.J.E. ten; Alkemade, R. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Clement, J. ; Eickhout, B. ; Fish, L. ; Heer, H. de; Kram, T. ; Manders, T. ; Meijl, H. van; Miles, L. ; Nellemann, C. ; Lysenko, I. ; Oorschot, M. van; Smout, F. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Vuuren, D. van; Westhoek, H. - \ 2007
Bilthoven [etc.] : Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) [etc.] (CBD technical series no. 31) - ISBN 9789292250713 - 90
biodiversiteit - milieutoets - milieuwetgeving - milieubescherming - hulpbronnenbehoud - overheidsbeleid - modellen - wereld - biodiversiteitsbepaling - aarde - Nederland - biodiversity - environmental assessment - environmental legislation - environmental protection - resource conservation - government policy - models - world - biodiversity assessment - earth - Netherlands
A scenario study from 2000 to 2050 has been performed (by Natuur en Milieuplanbureau, UNEP and WCMC) to explore the effects of future economic, demographic and technical developments on environmental pressures and global biodiversity. Policy options that affect global biodiversity were analysed on their contribution to the 2010 biodiversity targets agreed upon under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The mean species abundance of natural occurring species was used as indicator for biodiversity. To analyse the economic and environmental consequences of changes in global drivers and policies, we developed a global economic-biophysical framework by combining the extended GTAP model (Van Meijl et al., 2005) with the IMAGE model (Alcamo et al., 1998; IMAGE Team, 2001).
Klimaatverandering versterkt versnipperingeffect
Ozinga, W.A. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Schaminée, J.H.J. - \ 2007
WOt's new Nieuwsbrief Wettelijke Onderzoekstaken Natuur & Milieu 2007 (2007)14. - p. 6 - 6.
Sensitivity of Dutch vascular plants to climate change and habitat fragmentation : a preliminary assessment based on plant traits in relation to past trends and future projections
Ozinga, W.A. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Schaminée, J.H.J. - \ 2007
Wageningen : WOT Natuur & Milieu (WOt-rapport 49) - 46
planten - klimaatverandering - habitats - soorten - biodiversiteit - plantenecologie - nederland - vaatplanten - habitatfragmentatie - plants - climatic change - species - biodiversity - plant ecology - netherlands - vascular plants - habitat fragmentation
In the present study indicators were developed for the sensitivity of plant species to climate change and habitat fragmentation, by analysing large databases. The resulting sensitivity scores were confronted with trends observed over the 20th century in the frequency of occurrence of species. The scores for sensitivity to climate change and habitat fragmentation can both explain part of the trends observed over the 20th century. Within the group of species that are sensitive to climate change, the highest proportion of deteriorating species was found among the subset of species with low dispersal ability. This supports the theory that the effects of climate change on biodiversity are aggravated by habitat fragmentation.
Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050
Bakkenes, M. ; Alkemade, J.R.M. ; Ihle, F. ; Leemans, R. ; Latour, J.B. - \ 2002
Global Change Biology 8 (2002). - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 390 - 407.
The rapidly increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may lead to significant changes in regional and seasonal climate patterns. Such changes can strongly influence the diversity and distribution of species and, therefore, affect ecosystems and biodiversity. To assess these changes we developed a model, called euromove. The model uses climate data from 1990 to 2050 as compiled from the image 2 model, and determines climate envelopes for about 1400 plant species by multiple logistic regression analysis. The climate envelopes were applied to the projected climate to obtain predictions about plant diversity and distributions by 2050. For each European grid cell, euromove calculates which species would still occur in forecasted future climate conditions and which not. The results show major changes in biodiversity by 2050. On average, 32␘f the European plant species that were present in a cell in 1990 would disappear from that cell. The area, in which 32␘r more of the 1990 species will disappear, takes up 44␘f the modelled European area. Individual responses of the plant species to the forecasted climate change were diverse. In reviewing possible future trends, we found that plant species, in general, would find their current climate envelopes further northeast by 2050, shifting ranges that were comparable with those ranges in other studies.
Simulated effects of environmental change on ecosystem processes and plant species diversity at a regional scale
Oene, H. van; Arp, W.J. ; Berendse, F. ; Alkemade, J.R.M. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Ihle, F. - \ 1999
In: Assessment of long term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems. / van Oene, H., Wageningen : Wageningen University, Nature Conservation and Plant EcologyGroup [etc.] - ISBN 9789058510150 - p. 123 - 159.
Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems
Oene, H. van; Berendse, F. ; Alkemade, J.R.M. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Ihle, F. ; Kovel, C.G.F. de - \ 1999
Wageningen [etc.] : Wageningen University, Nature Conservation and Plant Ecology Group [etc.] - ISBN 9789058510150 - 168
meteorologie - klimaatverandering - nadelige gevolgen - soortendiversiteit - ecosystemen - biodiversiteit - nederland - terrestrische ecosystemen - meteorology - climatic change - adverse effects - species diversity - ecosystems - biodiversity - netherlands - terrestrial ecosystems
The effects of climate change on Europe's biodiversity: modelling trends with the EUROMOVE model.
Alkemade, J.R.M. ; Bakkenes, M. ; Ihle, F. ; Latour, J.B. ; Leemans, R. ; Berendse, F. - \ 1998
In: Facts & figures on Europe's biodiversity : state en trends 1998 - 1999 / Delbaere, B.C.W., - p. 18 - 19.
vegetatie - broeikaseffect - klimaatverandering - modellen - vegetation - climatic change - greenhouse effect - models
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