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Forty Years of Climate and Land-Cover Change and its Effects on Tourism Resources in Kilimanjaro National Park
Kilungu, Halima ; Leemans, Rik ; Munishi, Pantaleo K.T. ; Nicholls, Sarah ; Amelung, Bas - \ 2019
Tourism Planning and Development 16 (2019). - ISSN 2156-8316 - p. 235 - 253.
attractions - climate - Kilimanjaro - land-cover - last chance tourism - tourism
This study explores the effects of observed changes in rainfall, temperature and land cover on the physical and sightseeing aspects of trekking in Kilimanjaro National Park. The impact analysis is organised around hazard-activity pairs approach, combinations of environmental change aspects (such as higher temperatures) and tourism activities (such as trekking and sightseeing). The results suggest that higher temperatures and reduced rainfall have lowered the risks of landslides, rock fall and mountain sickness, improving physical trekking conditions. Changes in land cover have affected sightseeing: there now are more flowers and groundsels to admire and less wildlife, waterfalls and snow. In the short term, the disappearing snow may give rise to “last chance tourism”, increasing visitation, but eventually, the loss of snow and forest cover will likely decrease the number of tourists. The paper concludes that effective management of the attractions in the expanding heathlands is the most promising option to limit the losses.
Reindeer Herders Without Reindeer. The Challenges of Joint Knowledge Production on Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic
Pristupa, A.O. ; Lamers, M.A.J. ; Tysyachnyouk, M. ; Amelung, S.B. - \ 2018
Society & Natural Resources (2018). - ISSN 0894-1920 - 19 p.
Arctic - ECORA - ecosystem approach - indigenous involvement in natural resource management - indigenous peoples - integrated ecosystem management - joint knowledge production - Kolguev Island - reindeer herding - Russia
Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic has a unique tundra ecosystem and an indigenous Nenets population whose livelihood is traditionally based on reindeer herding. The Nenets faced a major crisis in 2013–2014 when the reindeer population collapsed. Widely different explanations for this collapse were put forward. This lack of a shared perspective points at the failure of genuine joint knowledge production (JKP) in the island’s UNEP–GEF’s ECORA project (2004–2009). The ECORA project aimed to achieve integrated ecosystem management by stimulating dialog and mutual learning among indigenous people, state agencies, and scientists. This paper analyses the failure of ECORA’s JKP, using a recently developed framework of conditions for successful JKP. The results suggest that ECORA met none of these conditions. It failed at bringing the scientific and indigenous knowledge systems together, and the produced knowledge did not resonate with indigenous people’s perception of living in Kolguev.
Easing the adoption of agent-based modelling (ABM) in tourism research
Johnson, Peter ; Nicholls, Sarah ; Student, Jillian ; Amelung, Bas ; Baggio, Rodolfo ; Balbi, Stefano ; Boavida-Portugal, Ines ; Jong, Eline de; Hofstede, G.J. ; Lamers, M.A.J. ; Pons, Marc ; Steiger, Robert - \ 2017
Current Issues in Tourism 20 (2017)8. - ISSN 1368-3500 - p. 801 - 808.
Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an emerging approach in tourism research. Despite the natural fit between theories of tourism as a complex, interconnected system, and the generative approach supported in ABM, there has been only limited integration within mainstream tourism research. This research letter reports on a recent gathering of tourism ABM researchers to define the main challenges that face the adoption of ABM in tourism research. These include technical, communications, and novelty issues. In response to these challenges, three potential strategies to ease adoption are outlined: education, awareness, and interdisciplinary teams. These findings are framed as a call for increased attention to the fit of ABM within tourism research, and a framework for negotiating constraints to adoption of this technology.
Agent-Based Modeling: A Powerful Tool for Tourism Researchers
Nicholls, Sarah ; Amelung, B. ; Student, Jillian - \ 2017
Journal of Travel Research 56 (2017)1. - ISSN 0047-2875 - p. 3 - 15.
agent-based modeling - complexity - simulation - systems - tourism
Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a way of representing complex systems of autonomous agents or actors, and of simulating the multiple potential outcomes of these agents’ behaviors and interactions in the form of a range of alternatives or futures. Despite the complexity of the tourism system, and the power and flexibility of ABM to overcome the assumptions such as homogeneity, linearity, equilibrium, and rationality typical of traditional modeling techniques, ABM has received little attention from tourism researchers and practitioners. The purpose of this paper is to introduce ABM to a wider tourism audience. Specifically, the appropriateness of tourism as a phenomenon to be subjected to ABM is established; the power and benefits of ABM as an alternative scientific mechanism are illuminated; the few existing applications of ABM in the tourism arena are summarized; and, a range of potential applications in the areas of tourism planning, development, marketing and management is proposed.
The value of agent-based modelling for assessing tourism–environment interactions in the Anthropocene
Amelung, Bas ; Student, Jillian ; Nicholls, Sarah ; Lamers, Machiel ; Baggio, Rodolfo ; Boavida-Portugal, Ines ; Johnson, Peter ; Jong, Eline de; Hofstede, Gert Jan ; Pons, Marc ; Steiger, Robert ; Balbi, Stefano - \ 2016
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 23 (2016). - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 46 - 53.
Tourism is one of the prime manifestations of the ‘great acceleration of humankind’ since the Anthropocene started around 1950. The almost 50-fold increase in international tourism arrivals has substantial implications for environmental sustainability, but these have not yet been fully explored. This paper argues that a full exploration requires the study of tourism as a complex socio-ecological system. Such approach integrates environmental processes and stakeholder behaviour and puts feedbacks in the spotlight. Systemic insights can inform strategies to address tourism's problematic environmental performance. The paper finds that systems approaches in tourism research are rare and identifies a number of challenges: the large number of stakeholders involved; the heterogeneity of stakeholders; and the lack of transdisciplinarity in tourism research. The paper then argues that agent-based modelling can help address some of these challenges. Agent-based modelling allows to run simplified tourism systems with heterogeneous stakeholders and explore their behaviour, thus acting as living hypotheses. They do this by: (1) representing tourism's dynamics in a systemic, intuitive and individual-based way; (2) combining theories from different domains; (3) unpacking the link between stakeholder behaviours and emergent tourism system patterns; and (4) connecting researchers and stakeholders. Agent-based models allow representation of heterogeneous agents driven by plausible needs, who perceive local context and interact socially. Companion modelling is identified as a promising tool for more effective stakeholder inclusion.
An inter-comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) in Europe
Scott, Daniel ; Rutty, Michelle ; Amelung, Bas ; Tang, Mantao - \ 2016
Atmosphere 7 (2016)6. - ISSN 2073-4433
Climate - Climate change - Climate index - Europe - Holiday Climate Index (HCI) - Tourism - Tourism Climate Index (TCI) - Urban tourism
Much research has been devoted to quantifying optimal or unacceptable climate conditionsboth generally and for specific tourism segments or activities over the last 10 years. This knowledge isnot incorporated in the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), which has also been subject to other substantialcritiques. To more accurately assess the climatic suitability of destinations for leisure tourism, theHoliday Climate Index (HCI) was developed. A major advancement of the HCI is that its variablerating scales and the component weighting system are based on this aforementioned literature oftourists' stated climatic preferences. This paper will discuss the design of the HCI and how thelimitations of the TCI were overcome. It then presents an inter-comparison of the results fromHCI:Urban and TCI for geographically diverse urban destinations across Europe. The resultsillustrate how the HCI:Urban rates the climate of many cities higher than the TCI, particularlyin shoulder seasons and the winter months, which is more consistent with observed visitationpatterns. The results empirically demonstrate that use of the TCI should be discontinued.
|Keeping tourism’s future within a climatically safe operating space
Eijgelaar, Eke ; Amelung, Bas ; Peeters, Paul - \ 2016
In: Tourism and the anthropocene Taylor and Francis - ISBN 9781317601081 - p. 17 - 33.
Vulnerability Is Dynamic! Conceptualising a Dynamic Approach to Coastal Tourism Destinations’ Vulnerability
Student, J.R. ; Amelung, B. ; Lamers, M.A.J. - \ 2016
In: Innovation in Climate Change Adaptation / Leal Filho, W., Springer - ISBN 9783319258126 - p. 31 - 42.
dynamic vulnerability approach - companion modelling - agent-based modelling - adaptive capacity - vulnerability - coastal tourism
Coastal regions and islands are among the most popular tourist destinations.
They are also highly vulnerable to climate change. Much of the literature on
vulnerability, including IPCC reports, states that vulnerability is dynamic. However,
vulnerability conceptualisations in the tourism realm have so far taken a static perspective. Static conceptualisation underestimates inherent uncertainties stemming from actor interactions (with one another and their environment) and processes. The interactions and processes are important for developing adaptive strategies in a dynamic world. Hence, frameworks for analysing tourism vulnerability as a dynamic phenomenon are urgently needed. This paper outlines the first steps taken towards a dynamic approach for analysing vulnerability of Caribbean coastal tourism. The approach consists of (1) a conceptual framework focusing on human-human and human-environment interactions at the actor level and (2) an evolutionary methodology. The methodology engages both Caribbean climate change experts and regional actors. Regional actors both respond to and help develop the framework through interactive, or companion, modelling. By focusing on interactions and processes, the approach is expected to yield key insights into the development of vulnerability through time, crucial information for adaptive management.
Towards a tipping point? Exploring the capacity to self-regulate Antarctic tourism using agent-based modelling
Student, J.R. ; Amelung, B. ; Lamers, M.A.J. - \ 2016
Journal of Sustainable Tourism 24 (2016)3. - ISSN 0966-9582 - p. 412 - 429.
IAATO - agent-based modelling (ABM) - self-regulation - Antarctic tourism - simulation - scenario analysis
Antarctica attracts tourists who want to explore its unique nature and landscapes. Antarctic tourism has rapidly grown since 1991 and is currently picking up again after the recent global economic downturn. Tourism activities are subject to the rules of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) and the decisions made by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties (ATCPs), but within this context, the industry has considerable freedom to self-organise. The industry is self-regulated by a voluntary member-based
group, the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). Researchers and policy-makers express concern about IAATO’s ability to deal with further tourism development and the environmental consequences. This study applies a new approach to understand what affects self-regulation, consisting of a literature review and agent-based modelling (ABM). The review identifies four challenges for self-regulation: operator commitment, tourism growth, operator diversification, and
accidents. The ABM simulations help conceptualise the complex concepts and theories surrounding self-regulation. Self-regulation is measured by the capacity of the simulated self-regulatory system to maintain a majority membership at the end of 20 years. The model suggests that a number of the challenges are nonlinear and have tipping points. This approach provides insights that industry officials and policy-makers can use to proactively regulate Antarctic tourism.
The changing role of environmental information in Arctic marine governance
Lamers, M.A.J. ; Pristupa, A.O. ; Amelung, B. ; Knol, M. - \ 2016
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 18 (2016). - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 49 - 55.
In the Arctic region global environmental change creates economic opportunities for various sectors, which is increasing pressure on marine biological resources. Next to state governance arrangements, informational governance instruments deployed by non-state actors, such as private certification schemes, mapping exercises and observation systems, play a progressive role in introducing ecosystem-based approaches for governing the marine environment. In this paper we review recent academic literature to understand the role of environmental information in Arctic marine governance. Our review reveals that environmental information may on one hand enable safe or sustainable operations of actors by creating legitimacy and building trust, while on the other hand the participation and empowerment of some actors may constrain other actors, leading to conflict and controversy. We conclude that the growing importance of environmental information in Arctic marine governance is driven both by state management systems and non-state actors, that currently the enabling role of information dominates the literature, but that the constraining role of information will likely increase in future Arctic marine governance.
Private informational governance in Post-Soviet waters: Implications of the Marine Stewardship Council certification in the Russian Barents Sea region
Pristupa, A.O. ; Lamers, M.A.J. ; Amelung, B. - \ 2016
Fisheries Research 182 (2016). - ISSN 0165-7836 - p. 128 - 135.
The Russian Barents Sea represents a celebrated example of sustainable fisheries management owing to effective and stable bilateral cooperation between Norway and Russia. The success of the state regime has not ruled out the emergence of private certification of the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC). The current study investigates the intended and unintended implications of the emergence and implementation of MSC certification in the Russian Barents Sea region. The employed conceptual framework builds on the literature on private informational governance, more specifically by providing an analytical prism of three core concepts: transparency, participation and trust. Based on interviews with stakeholders closely involved in MSC certification in Russia and literature analysis, this study concludes that MSC performs primarily a supplementary commercial function for Russian Barents Sea fisheries, which are already generally considered as sustainable, by ensuring access to the world market of sustainable fish and potentially providing a premium price. The certification mechanism has little to add to the well-established practices at sea, but it does urge companies to prioritise attention to such environmental issues as bycatch, discards and negative effects of bottom trawling through encouraging cooperation between fishing companies, NGOs and research institutions. Our analysis also suggests that indirectly MSC certification contributes to a growing divide between larger-scale, internationally oriented, distant-water fishing companies and the smaller-scale coastal fisheries dependent on state support. Finally, our analysis draws attention to the distrust of the Russian state in transnational private governance arrangements, like MSC, the implications of which are currently unclear.
Tourism, Climate Change and the Mass Media: the representation of the issue in Spain
Gómez-Martín, M.B. ; Armesto-López, Xosé ; Amelung, B. - \ 2016
Current Issues in Tourism 19 (2016)2. - ISSN 1368-3500 - p. 174 - 198.
This paper sets out to analyse the information dedicated to climate change and tourism in the Spanish press in the Mediterranean region of the peninsula during the period 1990–2010. Specifically, it seeks to determine the quantitative evolution of media coverage of climate change and tourism and the importance given to this subject. Adequate media attention in both quantitative and qualitative terms could greatly influence public concern and contribute to the social mobilization that will be needed to negotiate/resist the phenomenon in a geographical area in which tourism is a major economic and territorial driver and which is particularly vulnerable to climate change. To construct the corpus, we undertook a systematic analysis of newspaper coverage of tourism and climate change in the media selected; and we carried out content analysis of the 1014 units identified. The results indicate that the coverage is outstanding in quantitative terms. However, the importance given to the subject is quite marginal.
The role of information in sustainable resources governance in the Russian Arctic (2012 - 2016)
Pristupa, A.O. ; Lamers, M.A.J. ; Amelung, S.B. ; Mol, A.P.J. ; Leemans, H.B.J. - \ 2015
In: An overview of Arctic research of Wageningen UR Wageningen UR - 1 p.
|Keeping tourism's future within a climatically safe operating space
Eijgelaar, E. ; Amelung, B. ; Peeters, P. - \ 2015
In: Tourism and the Anthropocene / Gren, M., Huijbens, E., Routledge - ISBN 9781138814578 - 224 p.
|The environmental challenges of cruise tourism: Impacts and governance
Lamers, M.A.J. ; Eijgelaar, E. ; Amelung, B. - \ 2015
In: The Routledge Handbook of Tourism and Sustainability / Hall, C.M., Gössling, S., Scott, D., Abingdon, UK : Routledge - ISBN 9780415662482 - p. 430 - 439.
Implications of Climate Change for Rural Tourism in the Nordic Region
Nicholls, S. ; Amelung, B. - \ 2015
Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism 15 (2015)1-2. - ISSN 1502-2250 - p. 48 - 72.
vulnerability - weather - index - variability - perspective - businesses - resources
In many rural regions, including those of the Nordic region, a former dependence on primary activities such as fishing, forestry, mining and/or agriculture has been superseded in recent decades by increasing involvement in the tourism sector. The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential implications of climate change for non-winter rural tourism in the Nordic region. Using the Tourism Climatic Index as an analytical tool, the paper highlights the range of potential conditions for outdoor tourism activity for three future time periods (the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) under two scenarios of climate change (B1A and A1F). Findings suggest the possibility of substantially longer periods of desirable climatic conditions in future decades, particularly in the southern and eastern portions of the region. Implications of the findings are discussed in the context of the adaptive capacity of various tourism actors (tourists, providers and government) and in light of the particular vulnerabilities and assets of rural communities. The need for an integrated and multilevel approach that recognises the importance of the efficient coordination and integration of resources, products and services across multiple actor boundaries and levels is stressed.
On climate change skepticism and denial in tourism
Hall, C.M. ; Amelung, B. ; Cohen, S. ; Eijgelaar, E. ; Gössling, S. ; Higham, J. ; Leemans, R. ; Peeters, P. ; Ram, Y. ; Scott, D. - \ 2015
Journal of Sustainable Tourism 23 (2015)1. - ISSN 0966-9582 - p. 4 - 25.
environmental kuznets curve - sustainable tourism - international tourism - scientific consensus - temperature-changes - economic-growth - science - reanalysis - policy - flows
The period leading to and immediately after the release of the IPCC’s fifth series of climate change assessments saw substantial efforts by climate change denial interests to portray anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as either unproven theory or a negligible contribution to natural climate variability, including the relationship between tourism and climate change. This paper responds to those claims by stressing that the extent of scientific consensus suggests that human-induced warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Second, it responds in the context of tourism research and ACC, highlighting tourism’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as climate change’s potential impacts on tourism at different scales. The paper exposes the tactics used in ACC denial papers to question climate change science by referring to non-peer-reviewed literature, outlier studies, and misinterpretation of research, as well as potential links to think tanks and interest groups. The paper concludes that climate change science does need to improve its communication strategies but that the world-view of some individuals and interests likely precludes acceptance. The connection between ACC and sustainability illustrates the need for debate on adaptation and mitigation strategies, but that debate needs to be grounded in scientific principles not unsupported skepticism.
No time for smokescreen skepticism: A rejoinder to Shani and Arad
Hall, C.M. ; Amelung, B. ; Cohen, S. ; Leemans, R. ; Lamers, M.A.J. ; Nicholls, S. ; Richardson, R.B. - \ 2015
Tourism Management 47 (2015). - ISSN 0261-5177 - p. 341 - 347.
climate-change - environmental skepticism - scientific consensus - tourism - emissions - policy
Shani and Arad (2014) claimed that tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessments regarding climate change, and that anthropogenic climate change was a “fashionable” and “highly controversial scientific topic”. This brief rejoinder provides the balance that is missing from such climate change denial and skepticism studies on climate change and tourism. Recent research provides substantial evidence that reports on anthropogenic climate change are accurate, and that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, including from the tourism industry, play a significant role in climate change. Some positive net effects may be experienced by some destinations in the short-term, but in the long-term all elements of the tourism system will be impacted. The expansion of tourism emissions at a rate greater than efficiency gains means that it is increasingly urgent that the tourism sector acknowledge, accept and respond to climate change. Debate on tourism-related adaptation and mitigation measures is to be encouraged and welcomed. Climate change denial is not.
Denying bogus skepticism in climate change and tourism research
Hall, C.M. ; Amelung, B. ; Cohen, S. ; Leemans, R. ; Lamers, M.A.J. ; Long, P. - \ 2015
Tourism Management 47 (2015). - ISSN 0261-5177 - p. 352 - 356.
consensus - reanalysis - policy
This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights the inaccuracies, misinformation and errors in their commentaries. The obfuscation of scientific research and the consensus on anthropogenic climate change may have significant long-term negative consequences for better understanding the implications of climate change and climate policy for tourism and create confusion and delay in developing and implementing tourism sector responses.
Wildlife Safari Tourist Destinations in Tanzania: Experiences from Colonial to Post-Colonial Era
Kilungu, H. ; Munishi, P. ; Leemans, R. ; Amelung, B. - \ 2014
International Journal of Current Research and Academic Review 2 (2014)6. - ISSN 2347-3215 - p. 240 - 259.
Tanzania is currently one of the world's most visited countries for wildlife
tourism, but its main destinations are at risk from changes in climate and local
land-use. The consequences of these changes on tourism demand are,
however, unclear. Despite Tanzania's two centuries of experience with
wildlife tourism, the trends in Tanzania s wildlife tourism demand are poorly
understood. Insights into past, current and future tourists motivations and
preferences are thus vitally important to successfully manage wildlife safari
tourist destinations and tourism. This study aims to document and explain the
developments in tourist motivations and preferences since the early 19th
century. Changes in motivation and preferences, and the consequent wildlife
resource utilization are analysed. These study recapitulates two centuries of
wildlife resources governance. Wildlife resource uses in Tanzanian protected
areas vary historically from exploration and discovery, ivory collection,
hunting for trophies, safaris and nature conservation. These different purposes
in different periods are summarised in an annotated map of the evolution and
distribution of Tanzanian tourist destinations. The results are relevant for
spatial planning and wildlife conservation in relation to tourism. Additionally,
the map provides building blocks to develop exploratory scenarios to cope
with the current climate and land-use change risks