Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    We will mail you new results for this query: keywords==Decision making
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The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies
Stone, Vicki ; Führ, Martin ; Feindt, Peter H. ; Bouwmeester, Hans ; Linkov, Igor ; Sabella, Stefania ; Murphy, Finbarr ; Bizer, Kilian ; Tran, Lang ; Ågerstrand, Marlene ; Fito, Carlos ; Andersen, Torben ; Anderson, Diana ; Bergamaschi, Enrico ; Cherrie, John W. ; Cowan, Sue ; Dalemcourt, Jean Francois ; Faure, Michael ; Gabbert, Silke ; Gajewicz, Agnieszka ; Fernandes, Teresa F. ; Hristozov, Danail ; Johnston, Helinor J. ; Lansdown, Terry C. ; Linder, Stefan ; Marvin, Hans J.P. ; Mullins, Martin ; Purnhagen, Kai ; Puzyn, Tomasz ; Sanchez Jimenez, Araceli ; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J. ; Streftaris, George ; Tongeren, Martie van; Voelcker, Nicolas H. ; Voyiatzis, George ; Yannopoulos, Spyros N. ; Poortvliet, P.M. - \ 2018
Risk Analysis 38 (2018)7. - ISSN 0272-4332 - p. 1321 - 1331.
Decision making - Nano-regulation - Risk communication - Risk governance - Risk management
Societies worldwide are investing considerable resources into the safe development and use of nanomaterials. Although each of these protective efforts is crucial for governing the risks of nanomaterials, they are insufficient in isolation. What is missing is a more integrative governance approach that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration of the complex issues that occur in this rapidly evolving research and development area. Here, we propose three sets of essential elements required to generate an effective risk governance framework for nanomaterials. (1) Advanced tools to facilitate risk-based decision making, including an assessment of the needs of users regarding risk assessment, mitigation, and transfer. (2) An integrated model of predicted human behavior and decision making concerning nanomaterial risks. (3) Legal and other (nano-specific and general) regulatory requirements to ensure compliance and to stimulate proactive approaches to safety. The implementation of such an approach should facilitate and motivate good practice for the various stakeholders to allow the safe and sustainable future development of nanotechnology.
Logistical case study for the AragÓn region using the locagistics tool
Annevelink, Bert ; Galindo, Daniel García ; Espatolero, Sergio ; Staritsky, Igor ; Vanmeulebrouk, Bas - \ 2017
European Biomass Conference and Exhibition Proceedings 2017 (2017)25thEUBCE. - ISSN 2282-5819 - p. 41 - 47.
Decision making - Geographical information system (GIS) - Logistics - Supply chain
LocaGIStics is a support tool for the design of regional biomass delivery chains. It enables to further design and evaluate regional biomass delivery chains that are e.g. the result of initial planning by an energy company or a biobased producer. These general plans are translated in several biomass delivery designs using the variation in logistical concepts covering transport, pre-treatment and conversion options. The performance of every chain design can then be analyzed by comparing the different biomass delivery chains on the following environmental and economic indicators. A regional case study was performed in Aragón (Spain) using the LocaGIStics tool. In this case study maps were used where the biomass availability is specified for 2.5 x 2.5 grid cells. Data about the logistical components were supplied partly by the energy supplying company that was involved. This paper shows the main outcomes of this case study.
Considering healthiness promotes healthier choices but modulates medial prefrontal cortex differently in children compared with adults
Meer, Floor van; Laan, Laura N. van der; Viergever, Max A. ; Adan, Roger A.H. ; Smeets, Paul A.M. - \ 2017
NeuroImage 159 (2017). - ISSN 1053-8119 - p. 325 - 333.
Children - Decision making - Development - fMRI - Food choice
Childhood obesity is a rising problem worldwide mainly caused by overconsumption, which is driven by food choices. In adults, food choices are based on a value signal encoded in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). This signal is modulated by the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), which is involved in self-control. We aimed to examine the neural correlates of food choice in children, and how considering healthiness affects neural activity and choice behavior. 24 children and 28 adults performed a food choice task while being scanned with fMRI and provided health and taste ratings of the foods afterwards. During the choice task participants considered either the healthiness or tastiness of the food or chose naturally. Health rating was a positive predictor of choice in adults, but a negative predictor in children. Children had weaker dlPFC activation than adults during yes vs. no independent of health or taste condition. Both children and adults made healthier choices when considering healthiness. Taste rating modulated mPFC activation in both children and adults. When considering the healthiness, health rating positively modulated mPFC activation in adults, but negatively in children. Considering the healthiness increased connectivity between dlPFC and mPFC in adults, but not in children. In conclusion, considering healthiness can promote healthier choices in both children and adults, but is accompanied by an opposing pattern of brain activation in the mPFC. Since the absolute number of healthy choices remained lower in children, this suggests that children may not yet be geared to modify their choices away from their natural tendency to choose unhealthy tasty foods. Thus, this study suggests that it may be promising to develop interventions that increase children's preference for healthy food, for example by increasing the habitual consumption of healthy foods from a young age.
A New Statistical Method to Determine the Degree of Validity of Health Economic Model Outcomes against Empirical Data
Corro Ramos, Isaac ; Voorn, George A.K. van; Vemer, Pepijn ; Feenstra, Talitha L. ; Al, Maiwenn J. - \ 2017
Value in Health 20 (2017)8. - ISSN 1098-3015 - p. 1041 - 1047.
Decision making - Health economics methods - Statistics - Validation

Background: The validation of health economic (HE) model outcomes against empirical data is of key importance. Although statistical testing seems applicable, guidelines for the validation of HE models lack guidance on statistical validation, and actual validation efforts often present subjective judgment of graphs and point estimates. Objectives: To discuss the applicability of existing validation techniques and to present a new method for quantifying the degrees of validity statistically, which is useful for decision makers. Methods: A new Bayesian method is proposed to determine how well HE model outcomes compare with empirical data. Validity is based on a pre-established accuracy interval in which the model outcomes should fall. The method uses the outcomes of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and results in a posterior distribution around the probability that HE model outcomes can be regarded as valid. Results: We use a published diabetes model (Modelling Integrated Care for Diabetes based on Observational data) to validate the outcome "number of patients who are on dialysis or with end-stage renal disease." Results indicate that a high probability of a valid outcome is associated with relatively wide accuracy intervals. In particular, 25% deviation from the observed outcome implied approximately 60% expected validity. Conclusions: Current practice in HE model validation can be improved by using an alternative method based on assessing whether the model outcomes fit to empirical data at a predefined level of accuracy. This method has the advantage of assessing both model bias and parameter uncertainty and resulting in a quantitative measure of the degree of validity that penalizes models predicting the mean of an outcome correctly but with overly wide credible intervals.

Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster : A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II
Ilg, Patrick ; Gabbert, Silke ; Weikard, Hans Peter - \ 2017
Risk Analysis 37 (2017)7. - ISSN 0272-4332 - p. 1213 - 1232.
Asse II - Cost minimization - Decision making - Decommissioning options - German nuclear waste policies - Nuclear waste disposal - Risk management
This article compares different strategies for handling low- and medium-level nuclear waste buried in a retired potassium mine in Germany (Asse II) that faces significant risk of uncontrollable brine intrusion and, hence, long-term groundwater contamination. We survey the policy process that has resulted in the identification of three possible so-called decommissioning options: complete backfilling, relocation of the waste to deeper levels in the mine, and retrieval. The selection of a decommissioning strategy must compare expected investment costs with expected social damage costs (economic, environmental, and health damage costs) caused by flooding and subsequent groundwater contamination. We apply a cost minimization approach that accounts for the uncertainty regarding the stability of the rock formation and the risk of an uncontrollable brine intrusion. Since economic and health impacts stretch out into the far future, we examine the impact of different discounting methods and rates. Due to parameter uncertainty, we conduct a sensitivity analysis concerning key assumptions. We find that retrieval, the currently preferred option by policymakers, has the lowest expected social damage costs for low discount rates. However, this advantage is overcompensated by higher expected investment costs. Considering all costs, backfilling is the best option for all discounting scenarios considered.
QUICKScan as a quick and participatory methodology for problem identification and scoping in policy processes
Verweij, Peter ; Janssen, Sander ; Braat, Leon ; Eupen, Michiel van; Pérez Soba, Marta ; Winograd, Manuel ; Winter, Wim de; Cormont, Anouk - \ 2016
Environmental Science & Policy 66 (2016). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 47 - 61.
Decision making - Environmental policy - Impact assessment - Participatory - Spatial planning - Trade-off

Policy making is required in cases in which a public good needs to be either maintained or created, and private or civil initiatives cannot deal alone with this. Policy making thus starts with a phase of problem identification and determining whether there is a problem that needs to be dealt with. Rapidly evolving contexts exert influence on policy makers who have to take decisions much faster and more accurately than in the past, also facing greater complexity. There is a need for a method that lowers the lead time of the exploratory phase of the policy cycle. At the same time the method should create a joint understanding of the most important interactions. This paper proposes QUICKScan, a method, process and spatially explicit tool, to jointly scope policy problems in a participatory setting, investigate the most important interactions and feedbacks and assesses the state of knowledge and data of relevance to the problem. QUICKScan uses strongly moderated participatory workshops bringing together a wide range of stakeholders relevant to the policy issue. These moderated workshops jointly build an expert system in a spatially explicit tool using functionality of bayesian belief networks, python programming, simple map algebra and knowledge matrices, with a strong focus on visualization of results. QUICKScan has been applied in 70 different applications in a range of different policy contexts, stakeholders and physical locations. Through these applications participants were able to internalize the knowledge that was usually handed to them in briefs and reports, to develop a joint understanding of the main interactions and their link to impacts and to develop a problem statement and solution space in a reduced lead time. Ultimately, QUICKScan demonstrates another role of science, not solely as a knowledge production, but also facilitating the knowledge consumption.

Cow characteristics and their association with udder health after different dry period lengths
Hoeij, R.J. van; Lam, T.J.G.M. ; Koning, D.B. de; Steeneveld, W. ; Kemp, B. ; Knegsel, A.T.M. van - \ 2016
Journal of Dairy Science 99 (2016)10. - ISSN 0022-0302 - p. 8330 - 8340.
Clinical mastitis - Continuous milking - Decision making - Somatic cell count

Shortening or omitting the dry period (DP) in dairy cows is of interest because of potential beneficial effects on energy balance and metabolic health. Reported effects of a short or omitted dry period on udder health are ambiguous. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of no DP (0 d), a short DP (30 d), or a conventional DP (60 d) on the occurrence of intramammary infections (IMI) during the precalving period and on somatic cell counts (SCC), elevations of SCC (SCC ≥ 200,000 cells/mL), and clinical mastitis in the subsequent lactation. The study also aimed to analyze which prepartum cow characteristics are associated with udder health after different DP lengths. Holstein-Friesian dairy cows (n = 167) were randomly assigned to a DP length (0, 30, or 60 d). Cows with a 0-d DP had a greater occurrence of chronic IMI and a lower occurrence of cured IMI during the precalving period than cows with a 30-d or 60-d DP. Postpartum average SCC for lactation was greater in cows with a 0-d DP than in cows with a 30-d or 60-d DP. The number of cows with at least 1 elevation of SCC, the number of elevations of SCC per affected cow, the number of cows treated for clinical mastitis, and the number of cases of mastitis per affected cow did not differ among DP lengths. Cow characteristics related to postpartum average SCC for lactation were DP length, parity, and the following interactions: DP length with prepartum elevation of SCC, DP length with fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM) reduction between 150 and 67 d prepartum, DP length with parity and with average SCC for lactation, and last FPCM before the conventional drying-off day with average SCC for lactation. Cows with prepartum parity 1 had a lower occurrence of at least 1 elevation of SCC in subsequent lactation compared with cows with parity >2. Last SCC before the conventional drying-off day was positively associated with occurrence of clinical mastitis in the subsequent lactation. In this study, DP length was not a risk factor for either elevation of SCC or occurrence of clinical mastitis in the subsequent lactation. The identified cow characteristics could be used in a decision support model to optimize DP length for individual cows.

Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control : Objectives matter
Probert, William J.M. ; Shea, Katriona ; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J. ; Runge, Michael C. ; Carpenter, Tim E. ; Dürr, Salome ; Garner, M.G. ; Harvey, Neil ; Stevenson, Mark A. ; Webb, Colleen T. ; Werkman, Marleen ; Tildesley, Michael J. ; Ferrari, Matthew J. - \ 2016
Epidemics 15 (2016). - ISSN 1755-4365 - p. 10 - 19.
Decision making - Epidemiology - Foot-and-mouth disease - Management - Objectives - Optimisation

Formal decision-analytic methods can be used to frame disease control problems, the first step of which is to define a clear and specific objective. We demonstrate the imperative of framing clearly-defined management objectives in finding optimal control actions for control of disease outbreaks. We illustrate an analysis that can be applied rapidly at the start of an outbreak when there are multiple stakeholders involved with potentially multiple objectives, and when there are also multiple disease models upon which to compare control actions. The output of our analysis frames subsequent discourse between policy-makers, modellers and other stakeholders, by highlighting areas of discord among different management objectives and also among different models used in the analysis. We illustrate this approach in the context of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Cumbria, UK using outputs from five rigorously-studied simulation models of FMD spread. We present both relative rankings and relative performance of controls within each model and across a range of objectives. Results illustrate how control actions change across both the base metric used to measure management success and across the statistic used to rank control actions according to said metric. This work represents a first step towards reconciling the extensive modelling work on disease control problems with frameworks for structured decision making.

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