- M.P.M. Meuwissen (1)
- H.M. Nielsen (2)
- S. Ostergaard (1)
- A.G.J.M. Oude Lansink (1)
- J. Pedersen (1)
- B. Vargas (1)
Scenarios for a future dairy chain in the Netherlands
Demeter, R.M. ; Meuwissen, M.P.M. ; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. ; Arendonk, J.A.M. van - \ 2009
NJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences 56 (2009)4. - ISSN 1573-5214 - p. 301 - 323.
greenhouse-gas emissions - milk-production traits - fatty-acids - bovine-milk - raw-milk - carbon-dioxide - fluid milk - genetic-parameters - waste treatment - breeding goals
The objective of this study was to assess qualitatively, through a participatory approach, the potential for increasing the value added in the Dutch dairy production chain. A workshop involving stakeholders and experts in the Dutch dairy sector developed three scenarios, envisioned according to the strategic interests of the dairy chain in the Netherlands. These scenarios address major trends including changing consumer preferences, increasing pressure for more cost-efficient production, and rising environmental concerns. The scenarios indicate different directions in which the dairy chain in the Netherlands might develop in the next 5 to 20 years. The first scenario envisions the prevalence of producing differentiated raw milk with enhanced health or improved manufacturing properties. The second scenario envisions a dairy chain that is reduced to producing fresher and more individually customized dairy products with improved shelf life. The third scenario envisions ecologically sustainable dairy farming with improved animal welfare. These scenarios show that when improving the dairy sector it is important to consider the entire chain, and hence concerted and co-ordinated actions by the various stakeholders are necessary. Further studies quantifying the consequences of different scenario settings are necessary
A stochastic model for the derivation of economic values and their standard deviations for production and functional traits in dairy cattle
Nielsen, H.M. ; Groen, A.F. ; Ostergaard, S. ; Berg, P. - \ 2006
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica Section A-Animal Science 56 (2006)1. - ISSN 0906-4702 - p. 16 - 32.
feed-intake capacity - selection indexes - production circumstances - profit-functions - breeding goals - herd - bias
The objective of this paper was to present a model of a dairy cattle production system for the derivation of economic values and their standard deviations for both production and functional traits under Danish production circumstances. The stochastic model used is dynamic, and simulates production and health in a dairy herd. Because of indirect effects between traits, the phenotypic levels of (related) traits can change as a result of genetic changes. Economic values for milk production and body weight were 0.28 and -0.76 euro/kg per cow-year respectively. For incidence of milk fever, mastitis, retained placenta and laminitis economic values were -402.1, -162.5, -79.0 and -210.2 euro/incidence per cow-year. The economic values for involuntary culling rate, stillbirth and conception rate were -6.66, -1.63, and 1.98 euro/% per cow-year, respectively and the economic value for days from calving to first heat was -0.94 euro/day per cow-year. Standard deviations of economic values expressing variation in realised profit of a farm before and after a genetic change were computed using a linear Taylor series expansion. Expressed as coefficient of variation, standard deviations of economic values based on 1000 replicates ranged between 0.07 (milk production) to 16 (retained placenta)
Stochastic simulation of economic values and their standard deviations for production and functional traits under current and future Danish production circumstances
Nielsen, H.M. ; Groen, A.F. ; Pedersen, J. ; Berg, P. - \ 2004
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica Section A-Animal Science 54 (2004)3. - ISSN 0906-4702 - p. 113 - 126.
breeding goals - selection - herd - improvement - objectives - weights - systems
The objectives were to derive economic values (EVs) and their standard deviations for dairy cow traits in Denmark under future possible production circumstances using a stochastic bio-economic farm model. EVs were derived for three different scenarios with the first representing current Danish production circumstances. The other two scenarios were based on a report with predictions of expected developments in the Danish agricultural sector with respect to structural development and market situation. The three scenarios differed with respect to herd size, level of trait, prices and presence of milk quota. EVs for functional traits differed only slightly between scenarios, but without a milk quota the relative importance of milk yield compared to the functional traits increased. Under current production circumstances with milk quota, EVs of milk yield and body weight were 0.13 and -0.51 epsilon/kg per cow-year. For milk fever, mastitis, retained placenta and laminitis EVs were -277, -124, -39 and -27 epsilon/incidence/cow-year. The EVs for involuntary culling, stillbirth, conception rate and days from first calving to first heat were -5.2, -0.61, 1.69 epsilon/%/cow-year and -0.62 epsilon/day/cow-year. Standard deviations of EVs expressing variation in realised farm profit were lower in a situation with fixed number of cows on the farm than in a situation with milk quota.
Economic values for production and functional traits in Holstein cattle in Costa Rica
Vargas, B. ; Groen, A.F. ; Herrero, M. ; Arendonk, J.A.M. van - \ 2002
Livestock Production Science 75 (2002). - ISSN 0301-6226 - p. 101 - 116.
feed-intake capacity - dairy-cattle - production circumstances - output limitations - production systems - breeding goals - live weight - situations - selection - model
Economic values for production traits (carrier, fat, protein, and dressing percentage) and functional traits (conception rate, survival rate, body weight, and rumen capacity) were calculated for Holstein cattle of Costa Rica. Economic values were derived using a bio-economic model that combined genetic potential performance, feeding strategies and optimum culling and insemination policies to obtain actual phenotypic performance. Two evaluation bases were considered: fixed herd-size and fixed milk-output. With a fixed herd-size economic values were 0.04 (carrier), 5.25 (fat), 3.95 (protein), 0.92 (dressing percentage), 1.30 (conception rate), 2.42 (survival rate), 0.81 (body weight) and 84.53 (rumen capacity). With a milk-output limitation, economic values for all traits except survival rate were lower than for fixed herd-size. The respective values were -0.04, 3.53, 2.91, 0.88, 0.85, 3.18, 0.51 and 45.59. Sensitivity analysis indicated that economic values of fat, protein and rumen capacity increased significantly with higher prices of milk solids. Other traits were less sensitive to a change in price of milk solids. Changes in price of concentrate did not alter economic values significantly. Under a fixed feeding strategy, economic values for functional traits increased substantially, while those for production traits decreased. The results of this analysis suggest that genetic improvement of fertility, health and cow-efficiency traits will have a clear positive effect on profitability of Holstein cows in Costa Rica, especially when feeding conditions are not optimal. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science BY All rights reserved.