Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Water allocation under future climate change and socio-economic development : the case of Pearl River Basin
Yan, Dan - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Pavel Kabat, co-promotor(en): Saskia Werners; Fulco Ludwig. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463438193 - 140
water allocation - climatic change - socioeconomics - china - watertoewijzing - klimaatverandering - sociale economie

Water shortage has become a major challenge in many parts of the world due to climate change and socio-economic development. Allocating water is critical to meet human and ecosystem needs in these regions now and in the future. However, water allocation is being challenged by uncertainties associated with climate change and socio-economic development. This thesis aims to assess the combined effects of climate change and socio-economic development on water supply and demand in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) in China, and identify water allocation plans, which are robust to future climate change and socio-economic development. To do so, the impact of climate change on future water availability is first assessed. Next, different model frameworks are developed to identify robust water allocation plans for improving reservoir management, ensuring sufficient flow into the delta to reduce salt intrusion, and providing sufficient freshwater for human and industrial consumption under future climate change and socio-economic development.

Results show that water availability is becoming more variable throughout the basin due to climate change. River discharge in the dry season is projected to decrease throughout the basin. For a moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5), low flows reduce between 6 and 48 % depending on locations. For a high climate change scenario (RCP8.5), the decreases of low flows can reach up to 72%. In the wet season, river discharge tends to increase in the middle and lower reaches and decreases in the upper reach of the Pearl River Basin. The variation of river discharge is likely to aggravate water stress. Especially the reduction of low flow is problematic as already the basin experiences water shortages during the dry season in the delta.

The model frameworks developed in this study not only evaluate the performance of existing water allocation plans in the past, but also the impact of future climate change on robustness of previous and newly generated water allocation plans. The performance of the four existing water allocation plans reduces under climate change. New water allocation plans generated by the two model frameworks perform much better than the existing plans. Optimising water allocation using carefully selected state-of-the-art multi-objective evolutionary algorithms in the Pearl River Basin can help limit water shortage and salt intrusion in the delta region. However, the current water allocation system with six key reservoirs is insufficient in maintaining the required minimum discharge at two selected gauge stations under future climate change. More reservoirs, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River, could potentially improve the future low flow into the delta.

This study also explored future water shortage in the Pearl River Basin under different water availability and water use scenarios. Four different strategies to allocate water were defined. These water allocation strategies prioritize upstream water use, Pearl River Delta water use, irrigation water use, and manufacturing water use, respectively. Results show that almost all the regions in the Pearl River Basin are likely to face temporary water shortage under the four strategies. The increasing water demand contributes twice as much as the decreasing water availability to water shortage. All four water allocation strategies are insufficient to solve the water scarcity in the Pearl River Basin. The economic losses differ greatly under the four water allocation strategies. Prioritizing the delta region or manufacturing production would result in lower economic losses than the other two strategies. However, all of them are rather extreme strategies. Development of water resources management strategies requires a compromise between different water users. Optimization algorithms prove to be flexible and useful tool in adaptive water resources allocation for providing multiple approximate Pareto solutions. In addition, new technologies and increasing water use efficiency will be important to deal with future water shortage in the Pearl River Basin.

Planning amid uncertainty : Adaptiveness for spatial interventions in delta areas
Zandvoort, Mark - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Adri van den Brink, co-promotor(en): Maarten van der Vlist; F. Klijn. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463437158 - 242
physical planning - deltas - climatic change - risk management - uncertainty - ruimtelijke ordening - delta's - klimaatverandering - risicobeheersing - onzekerheid

Planning for delta areas happens amid uncertainty, which may influence the location, type and form of interventions such as infrastructure, spatial strategies and design standards. Interventions, however, may fix the spatial configuration for decades, for which insight in the appropriate use of adaptiveness to account for uncertainty is essential. This thesis explores uncertainty and adaptiveness in spatial planning and studies their expression and empirical manifestation in planning approaches, planning tools and planning processes. Uncertainty’s characteristics are used to distill information about the (in)adequacy of specific interventions and are related to three domains of adaptiveness: adaptive management, adaptive capacity and adaptive planning. The thesis shows that while some uncertainties demand interventions aimed at ensuring the effectiveness of planning while anticipating future change, others require a focus on the planning process by the co-construction of knowledge, deliberating about values and increasing the adaptive capacity of actors and institutions.

How to achieve Climate Action SDG 13 : Seminar report
Hennemann, I. ; Gevers, G.J.M. - \ 2017
Centre for Development Innovation (Report CDI 17-015) - 16 p.
climatic change - governance - finance - klimaatverandering - financiën
What does the implementation of ‘SDG 13 Climate Action’ mean in practice and what is needed to achieve this? Reaching this goal not only depends on science and technologies, but maybe more so on human behaviour and collaboration between stakeholders across different levels and scales.
This report summarises and visualises the main outcomes of an international seminar organised by Wageningen Centre for Development Innovation in November 2016. The seminar was structured around four core themes which are key to achieve Climate Action: Governance, national-local disconnect, incremental versus transformational change and climate finance.
Maatgevende afvoer en maaiveldafvoer in waterschap Vechtstromen : beschouwing over de bruikbaarheid van afvoernormen voor bepaling van veranderingen in de waterhuishouding en het optreden van maaiveldafvoer
Massop, H.Th.L. ; Bakel, P.J.T. ; Louw, P.G.B. de - \ 2017
Wageningen : Wageningen Environmental Research (Wageningen Environmental Research rapport 2839) - 71
drainage - waterbeheer - afvoer - oppervlakkige afvoer - klimaatverandering - nederland - water management - discharge - runoff - climatic change - netherlands
Dit rapport beschrijft (1) een evaluatie van de MA-methodiek (Maatgevende Afvoer) toegepast door harmonisatie van de legger van het waterschap Vechtstromen en brengt (2) de maaiveladafvoer voor het waterschapgebied in beeld.
Verder vergroenen, verder verbreden : naar een effectieve bijdrage van het Europees landbouwbeleid en beleid voor agrarisch natuurbeheer aan groene opgaven
Doorn, Anne van; Westerink, Judith ; Nieuwenhuizen, Wim ; Melman, Dick ; Schrijver, Raymond ; Breman, Bas - \ 2017
Wageningen : Wageningen Environmental Research (Wageningen Environmental Research rapport 2822) - 75
duurzame landbouw - vergroening - milieubeheer - beschermde soorten - klimaatverandering - biodiversiteit - landbouwbeleid - conservering op het bedrijf - sustainable agriculture - greening - environmental management - protected species - climatic change - biodiversity - agricultural policy - on-farm conservation
This report explores in what way greening and enhancing sustainability of agriculture could be best supported within the CAP: by greening of direct payments (1 st pillar) or by contracts for agri-environmental management (2 nd pillar). Additionally it is explored for which goals it would be meaningful to implement a collective approach for agri-environmental management, next to the current objectives of the support of internationally protected species. The most relevant issues in the Netherlands concerning the sustainable management of natural resources, climate change and biodiversity are the point of departure of the analysis. For a couple of issues it is analysed which objectives can be best reached with which measures and instruments within the CAP.
Quantifying the impact of socioeconomic development and climate change on Escherichia coli concentrations in the Pakistani Kabul River
Iqbal, Shahid - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Rik Leemans, co-promotor(en): Nynke Hofstra. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463434478 - 183
escherichia coli - rivers - climatic change - socioeconomics - water quality - regression analysis - water pollution - health - rivieren - klimaatverandering - sociale economie - waterkwaliteit - regressieanalyse - waterverontreiniging - gezondheid

Clean water is indispensable for the sustenance of life and maintenance of health. However, water quality is threatened by changes in socio-economic developments (population growth, urbanisation, livestock increase and sanitation) and climate (surface air temperature and precipitation patterns). Major water quality contaminants include microorganisms, such as fecal coliforms, Escherichia Coli (E.coli) and pathogens. Microbial contamination poses serious health risks in developing countries like Pakistan, where people do not have access to clean water due to lack of waste water treatment and thorough manure management. Therefore, to reduce the present and future health risk, it is important to understand the impacts of socio-economic development and climate-change on microbial fate and transport in surface water resources in the Kabul River Basin in Pakistan.

The objective of this study is quantifying the impact of socio-economic development and climate change on E.coli concentrations in the Pakistani Kabul River. To reach the objective, I sampled E.coli concentrations at several locations in Kabul River, applied statistical and process based modelling, developed future global change scenarios and analysed the impact of these scenarios on E.coli concentrations. I focus on E.coli rather than pathogens, because sampling of pathogens and its chemical analysis are expensive. Kabul River Basin is a tributary of the Indus river and is located in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH) and suffers from floods every year. The population suffers from a high risk of waterborne diseases. The water is contaminated by direct sewage inputs from large cities, like Peshawar, direct manure inputs from animal sheds along the river and indirect manure inputs from the land.

Kabul River Basin is subjected to hazardous levels of microbiological pollution. The concentration of micro-organisms is influenced by hydro-climatic variables, such as water and surface air temperature, precipitation and discharge. However, the net effect of these variables remains thus far unclear. High concentrations of E.coli were found in the main stream and its tributaries (Chapter 2). Samples were collected along the Kabul river and drinking water samples from the city of Nowshera (April 2013 to July 2015) and all surface water samples violate the bathing water criteria and all drinking water samples violate the drinking water criteria. The correlation between hydro-climatic variables and E.coli concentration was analysed. Water temperature and surface air temperature were positively correlated, most likely because high temperatures coincide with high precipitation and discharge. Precipitation and river discharge data were also positively correlated with E.coli concentrations. This shows that precipitation, which increases the surface runoff, transports E.coli and other waterborne pathogens to the river nearby (correlation with precipitation) and further upstream (correlation with discharge). A regression model was also applied that explained 61% of the E.coli variability in surface water and 55% of E.coli variability in drinking water resources, even when other factors, such as location and land-use variables are ignored (Chapter 2).

To better understand the hydrology in the basin, the current and future flows of Kabul river were modelled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which serves as a basis for the process-based E.coli model. Flash floods occur every year in the basin as a result of increased discharge due to snow and glacier melt together with monsoon precipitation. The Kabul River Basin is one of the most vulnerable regional basin to climate change. The hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the full Kabul River Basin and performed well (NSE equals 0.77 and 0.72 respectively). Flood frequency and expected return period were analysed for a contemporary period (1981-2000) and two future periods (i.e. 2031-2050 and 2081-2100) using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on four bias-corrected downscaled climate models (Chapter 3). The flood frequency analysis shows that the present day’s one-in-a-fifty year event could occur between once in every 3 year (EC-EARTH and MIROC climate-models) and once in every 24 years (IPSL climate-model). This study presents climate-change impact assessment in the Kabul River Basin. The selected approach is in general well accepted in the scientific community and the results can be useful in flood management in the region. Outcomes of this study can be helpful for regions that have similar hydro-climatological conditions.

To better understand the fate and transport of bacteria from land to water resources and to assess source contribution, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated for E.coli. Our study is the first bacterial modelling study for the Kabul River Basin (Chapter 4). The simulated concentrations have slightly lower variability than the observed concentrations. The model performance could be improved further by using more input E.coli data, but the current model results agree well enough with our measured E.coli concentrations (NSE equals 0.69 and 0.66 for calibration and validation respectively). Based on the pathogen source estimations, point (direct) sources are identified to be the most important microbial pollution sources. Pollution from upstream areas is also important, while non-point (diffuse) sources play a role mostly during the periods with high discharge. Our study underlines the importance of wastewater treatment and manure management both in and upstream of the study area. Studies like ours were lacking in developing countries like Pakistan and can be used for scenario analyses in the region (Chapter 4). The model can be useful in microbial water quality assessments in other watersheds and for pathogenic microorganisms, such as Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus.

The calibrated and validated SWAT bacterial model (Chapter 4) was used to assess E.coli concentrations in a comprehensive scenario analysis (Chapter 5). We developed two future scenarios based on state-of-the-art approaches, using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), RCPs and own assumptions in line with the SSP storylines. We took the modelled E.coli concentrations from Chapter 4 as baseline scenarios and defines two future scenarios as Scenario_1 (sustainability scenario) and Scenario_2 (uncontrolled scenario). These scenarios represent different socio-economic development and climate change. The two scenarios were developed by combining SSP1, a sustainable, equitable and environmentally focussed world with RCP4.5 (limed climate change) in Scenario_1, and SSP3 (a divided world, with no interest in the environment) with RCP8.5 (strong climate change) in Scenario_2. Currently, no wastewater treatment plant exists in the basin, because the 2010 floods destroyed the available plants. We assumed excellent and poor wastewater and manure treatment for 2050s and 2100s for Scenario_1 and Scenario_2 respectively, in line with the storylines. Scenario_2 resulted in higher E.coli concentrations compared to the baseline scenarios due to high population growth, poor wastewater and manure treatment and land-use changes. However, microbial water quality was found to improve under Scenario_1. This was achieved by implementing improved and technologically advanced wastewater treatment and manure management. Future concentrations were found to be between 0.6% and 7% of the baseline concentrations depending on the treatment technology used (Chapter 5). This study highlights the need for substantial improvements in wastewater and manure treatment systems in the Kabul River Basin to assure future E.coli concentrations in water sources will be within the limits of WHO and US-EPA regulations for drinking and bathing water quality. The primary treatment facility that is currently installed is a good start, but insufficient to strongly reduce concentrations. Hence major investments are required to install technologically advanced wastewater treatment and manure treatment plants to cut-down the current contamination level of Kabul river.

My PhD thesis provides a base for devising optimal coping strategies that are essential for the sustainability of hydrological resources under socio-economic developments and climate-change impacts. The results of our research are helpful to further assess alternative water quality management options. The outcomes of this study also increase the knowledge in the field of microbial fate and transport in water resources in a developing country like Pakistan, where such studies are lacking. A limited number of previous studies on global change impacts on microbial contamination of surface water in other areas of the world focused only on the climate-change impacts on microbial water quality. This is the first study to evaluate the influence of combined socio-economic and climate-change impacts on E.coli concentrations in the Kabul River Basin. The developed SWAT model and scenario analysis can be used for other contaminants, such as nutrients, pesticides and heavy metals. Our study can be a first step to improve water quality of the Kabul River Basin by providing tools for water managers and health specialists to improve the water quality and reduce the risks related to the use of contaminated water resources. This study will be useful not only in this region, but also for other regions of the world with similar microbial water contamination issues.

Assessing the impact of socio-economic development and climate change on faecal indicator bacteria in the Betna River, Bangladesh
Islam, Majedul - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Rik Leemans, co-promotor(en): Nynke Hofstra. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463436304 - 137
climatic change - environmental impact - water quality - rivers - contamination - bacteria - coliform bacteria - faecal coliforms - bangladesh - south asia - klimaatverandering - milieueffect - waterkwaliteit - rivieren - besmetting - bacteriën - coliformbacteriën - fecale coliformen - zuid-azië

Consumption of water that is contaminated with pathogens still causes high numbers of death and disease. Understanding the factors that influence the dynamic distribution of waterborne pathogens is important, as this will help understanding improvements and possible solutions. Such understanding is particularly important in a developing country like Bangladesh, where large proportions of the population often have little or no access to clean water. Despite the high relevance for public health, few studies currently exists on the fate and transport of pathogens and the so-called Faecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB, e.g. E. coli, enterococci) in (sub)tropical systems. FIB are susceptible to shifts in water flow and quality. The predicted increases in rainfall and floods due to climate change will exacerbate the faecal contamination scenarios. This could be further compounded by the rapid change in socio-economic conditions (population growth, urbanization, sanitation and agricultural management) in the developing countries. Therefore, to reduce future health risks, understanding the influence of changes in socio-economic conditions and climate on microbial dynamics is important.

Very few studies have quantified the relationship between the waterborne pathogens/FIB concentrations and climate and socio-economic changes. In this study a process-based model was developed and a scenario analysis was performed based on the new combined climate and socio-economic changes scenarios, to assess the present and future river hydrodynamics, FIB sources, die-off processes and concentrations. We used FIB, because measuring FIB are cheaper than pathogens. FIB are usually not pathogenic but their presence indicates the likely presence of waterborne pathogens. These pathogens are expected to respond to climate change in a comparable way to FIB. The present study is based on the Betna River basin in southwestern Bangladesh, where faecal contamination is not monitored and very little knowledge exists on the distribution of contaminants.

First of all, FIB concentrations of the river water were measured to identify the river’s faecal contamination levels that can be used to validate the water-quality model. In the study area, wastewater is not treated and this untreated wastewater is discharged directly into the river. This is evident from the measured FIB data. In 88% of the E. coli and all enterococci samples, the USEPA bathing water quality standards were violated (Chapter 2). Such violation indicates potential health risks associated with the use of the river water for domestic, bathing and irrigation purposes. The correlation between environmental variables (water temperature, precipitation and salinity) and FIB concentrations was also determined. A positive correlation was found with water temperature and precipitation, and a negative correlation with salinity. The positive correlation with temperature is due to the co-occurrence of high summer temperature with abundant monsoon rainfall. The positive correlation with precipitation can be explained by the increased runoff from agricultural lands and urban areas. This runoff contains many bacteria. In the study area, during the rainy season (July to September) precipitation increases and as a result water salinity decreases. The observed negative correlation with salinity is more likely due to the typical weather patterns during the rainy season when low salinity coincides with increased precipitation and high temperature, than to salinity dependent die-off of bacteria. A regression model was applied that explained almost half of E. coli and enterococci variability in river water. This, however, only considers water temperature and precipitation (Chapter 2).

Then, the present and future hydrodynamics of the river were simulated using a two dimensional hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21 FM). Although the main goal of this thesis is to assess the river’s present and future FIB concentrations, the reasons for this hydrodynamic modelling are twofold. Firstly, outputs of the hydrodynamic model are used as input into the water-quality model (Chapter 4). Secondly, hydrodynamics (i.e. water level and discharge) are simulated because increased water level and discharge together with sea level rise stimulate floods in the river basin. These floods are related to outbreaks of waterborne diseases. The modelled results corresponded very well with the measured water levels and discharges. The model was applied to simulate baseline and future water levels and discharge for Representative Concentration Pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using bias-corrected downscaled data from two climate models (IPSL-CM5A and MPI-ESM). The model results showed an expected increase in water level up to 16% by the 2040s and 23% by the 2090s (Chapter 3). The monsoon daily maximum discharge was expected to increase up to 13% by the 2040s and 21% by the 2090s. These model results also showed that the duration of the water level above the danger level and extreme discharge periods can increase by half a month by the 2040s and over a month by the 2090s. The coincidence of the water danger level with extreme discharge may cause disastrous floods in the study area.

Next, the hydrodynamic model was coupled with a water-quality module (ECOLab). The fate and transport of FIB was simulated, the influence of different processes tested and the contribution from different sources to the total contamination quantified (Chapter 4). The model outputs corresponded very well with the measured FIB data. The present river microbial water quality based on measured and simulated results indicated, once again, noncompliance with bathing water standards. Primary and secondary levels of wastewater treatment were not sufficient to reach the standards most of the time, and discharges from sewer drains and incoming concentrations from the upstream boundary were found to be a major cause of water contamination. Tide, wind and diffuse sources (urban and agricultural runoff) contributed little. The high FIB inputs from the upstream open boundary come from untreated point source discharges from upstream urban areas and accumulation of diffuse contaminants from the large upstream areas. Therefore, this study underlines the need for establishment of wastewater treatment plants both in the studied basin and upstream urban areas. This study provides insight into bacterial fate and transport mechanisms, contribution of different sources to the faecal contamination and applicability of wastewater treatment in a river of a subtropical developing country where this type of study is lacking. Uncertainties are related to the lack of high temporal resolution measured FIB data and the lack of available data for contaminant loads from septic tank leakages, open defecation and sediment resuspension. However, the model well captured the measured FIB variability, suggesting that it can be applied for microbial water quality assessments in other watersheds of the world with similar characteristics.

The developed model could be an ideal tool to forecast future impacts of climate and socioeconomic changes on FIB fate, transport and dynamics. Finally, future FIB concentrations were simulated using the coupled hydrodynamic and microbial model (MIKE 21 FM-ECOLab) and scenario analysis (Chapter 5). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We developed a baseline scenario (October 2014–September 2015) reflecting the current conditions and two future scenarios, S1 (sustainability scenario) and S2 (uncontrolled scenario) mimicking different future developments of socio-economic (population, urbanization, sanitation, wastewater treatment development, land use) and climate-change factors (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). In S1 RCP4.5 was combined with socio-economic scenarios SSP1, and for S2 RCP8.5 was combined with SSP3 (S2). Assumptions on sanitation, waste water treatment and agricultural management in line with the storylines were made to quantify future changes in FIB concentrations and consequent health risk. Different future scenarios were found to have substantial impact on FIB concentrations in the river. By the 2090s, FIB concentrations are expected to decrease by 98% or increase by 75% for the sustainability scenario and uncontrolled scenario respectively. An uncontrolled future resulted in a deterioration of microbial water quality due to socio-economic developments, such as higher population growth, land-use change and increased sewage discharges and changes in rainfall patterns. Microbial water quality strongly improved under a sustainable climate and improved sewage treatment. FIB concentrations were much more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors than to changes in climatic factors. This underlines the importance of socio-economic factors in assessing and improving microbial water quality.

The results show the importance of improvements in sanitation and wastewater treatment in the Bangladeshi Betna River basin to ensure that future FIB concentrations in the river comply with the US-EPA bathing water quality standards. Major investments to construct wastewater treatment plants are necessary to compensate for the population growth and increased the volume of wastewater treatment. Although the current level of contamination is already too high, without wastewater treatment the water quality will further deteriorate.

The thesis assesses the present and future FIB dynamics in the Betna River through sampling, statistical and process-based modelling, and scenario analysis. The results contribute to increase the knowledge base on the dynamic distributions of the FIB in surface water in a developing country and in a subtropical system, where this type of study is lacking. It also reduces the knowledge gaps regarding future flooding scenarios at the local scale. While some earlier studies focused on only assessing climate-change impacts on microbial water quality, this study for the first time assessed the influence of combined climate and socio-economic scenarios (using scenarios based on the new SSP-RCP scenario matrix) on river FIB concentrations. This combined modelling and scenario approach enables the assessment of faecal contamination sources and dynamics at present and in the future. The developed model and scenario analysis approach provides a basis for the water managers to reduce the widespread faecal contamination and the risks of waterborne disease outbreaks, which are still a leading cause of deaths in developing countries.

Modelling the dynamic interactions between food production and ecosystem services : a case study in Benin
Duku, C. - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Lars Hein, co-promotor(en): S.J. Zwart. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431613 - 141
ecosystem services - modeling - food production - case studies - hydrology - irrigation - forests - woodlands - climatic change - nature conservation - food security - benin - ecosysteemdiensten - modelleren - voedselproductie - gevalsanalyse - hydrologie - irrigatie - bossen - bosgebieden - klimaatverandering - natuurbescherming - voedselzekerheid

Given the high levels of food insecurity and the loss of vital ecosystem services associated with deforestation, countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face a major dilemma. How can they produce enough food in a changing climate to feed an increasing population while protecting natural forests and woodlands that provide a wide array of ecosystem services beneficial to livelihoods? Thus, the objectives of this thesis are twofold. First, to further enhance the understanding of the dynamic interactions between food production, and natural and semi-natural ecosystems with a case study in Benin. Second, to further enhance the understanding of how hydrological ecosystem services can be captured in an accounting framework. Understanding hydrological ecosystem services is key to understanding the multi-directional relationship between food production and ecosystem services supply from natural and semi-natural ecosystems. First, I examine how a spatially explicit ecohydrological model can be used to analyse multiple hydrological ecosystem services in line with the ecosystem accounting framework. The hydrological ecosystem services include crop water supply for rainfed agriculture, household water supply (both groundwater supply and surface water supply), water purification, and soil erosion control. Second, I develop a general modelling approach for analysing the effects of deforestation on the availability of water for irrigation at the watershed level, and I apply the approach to the Upper Oueme watershed in Benin. Third, I analyse the impact of climate change on agricultural intensification options. Finally, I quantify trade-offs between per capita food availability and protecting forests and woodlands at different levels of yield increases taking into account climate change, population growth. This thesis shows that the integration of hydrological ecosystem services into an accounting framework can provide relevant information at appropriate scales suitable for decision-making. It is empirically feasible to distinguish between service capacity and service flow of hydrological ecosystem services. This requires appropriate decisions regarding physical and mathematical representation of ecohydrological processes, spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, temporal resolution, and required model accuracy. This thesis also shows that opportunities for irrigation expansion depend on conservation of forests and woodlands in the headwaters of the rivers feeding the irrigation scheme. Opportunities for agricultural intensification in SSA are likely to diminish with climate change, hence increasing pressure to expand cultivated areas in order to meet increasing food demand. Climate change will lead to substantial reductions in; exploitable yield gaps for major food crops, rainfed cropland areas that can support the cultivation of two or more crops per year, and water availability for irrigation expansion. Furthermore, in the far future crop yields will have to increase at a faster rate than has been recorded over the past two and half decades in order to maintain current levels of per capita food availability. Failure to achieve the required levels of yield increases is likely to lead to the conversion of substantial areas of forests and woodlands for crop cultivation. Based on the results of this thesis, four main recommendations to help address the dual challenge of food security and ecosystem protection in Benin and the larger SSA region are made: (i) promote a precautionary approach to forest and woodland conservation, (ii) promote cross-sectoral policy coherence and consultations, (iii) promote the development of satellite ecosystem accounts consistent with national accounts, and (iv) identify, evaluate and implement adaptation and resilience measures to reduce agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

Evaluating rainwater harvesting systems in arid and semi-arid regions
Ammar, Adham Ali - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Coen Ritsema, co-promotor(en): Michel Riksen; M. Quessar. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431460 - 207
water harvesting - rain - water - arid zones - semiarid zones - geographical information systems - water management - climatic change - tunisia - iraq - regenwateropvang - regen - aride klimaatzones - semi-aride klimaatzones - geografische informatiesystemen - waterbeheer - klimaatverandering - tunesië - irak

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is an ancient traditional technology practised in many parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions (ASARs). ASARs represent 40% of the earth’s land surface and are characterised by low average annual rainfall and uneven temporal and spatial distributions of that rainfall. In these regions an efficient use of the limited amount of rainfall available is important, e.g. by collecting and using surface runoff (water harvesting). Lately, access to water for agriculture and domestic use has become worse because of increasing population, higher levels of human activity and the impacts of climate change. The inhabitants of ASARs have developed several RWH techniques to increase the water availability, thus coping with water shortages. RWH is an important mitigation strategy to the impact of climate change on water availability in ASARs.

Four main methodologies of site selection were categorised, ranging from those based only on biophysical criteria to more integrated approaches that include socioeconomic criteria. Our analysis suggests that the integration of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) with a geographic information system (GIS) is the most advanced approach. It offers high potential in data-poor regions; GIS-based hydrological modelling is always recommended for data-rich regions.

The potential for RWH in wadi Horan (western desert of Iraq) was identified using a GIS-based suitability model. The method for selecting suitable sites for RWH was then further developed into an evaluation and decision support tool for assessing the overall performance of existing RWH systems by integrating engineering, biophysical and socioeconomic criteria using MCA supported by GIS. It was tested in the wadi Oum Zessar in southeastern Tunisia.

A simple but generally applicable water harvesting model (WHCatch) was developed to investigate and optimise the performance of the RWH systems under various scenarios of design and management, It was tested in wadi Oum Zessar. The advantages of simulating long-term water balances at the sub-catchment level for improving our understanding of hydrological processes in an RWH system are emphasised. Several solutions for optimising RWH performance in various scenarios are provided.

Finally, the impact of climate change on existing RWH systems in the Oum Zessar watershed under current and future scenarios of climate was investigated. The downscaled maximum and minimum temperatures clearly indicated an increasing trend in the mean monthly temperature and the generated precipitation tended to decrease in the future. It was shown that the combination of changing the flow direction and the spillway height had a large impact on the performance of the RWH systems under current and future conditions. Water management and structural design at the sub-catchment level plays a more important role than climate change in the performance of RWH.

‘Force of Nature’ : climate shocks, food crises and conflict in Colonial Africa and Asia, 1880-1960
Papaioannou, Kostadis J. - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Ewout Frankema; Erwin Bulte. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431668 - 238
climatic change - environmental degradation - environmental impact - agricultural development - agriculture - agriculture and environment - historical ecology - history - colonialism - colonization - africa - asia - nigeria - rainfed agriculture - rain - klimaatverandering - milieuafbraak - milieueffect - landbouwontwikkeling - landbouw - landbouw en milieu - historische ecologie - geschiedenis - kolonialisme - kolonisatie - afrika - azië - regenafhankelijke landbouw - regen

“Global climate change poses one of the most urgent challenges of our age. The increasing frequency and intensity of weather shocks, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and hurricanes, are all anticipated to adversely affect conditions of agricultural production, and jeopardize efforts to achieve global food security. In recent years, there has been a rapidly growing body of literature across multiple disciplines aiming to quantify and assess the adverse consequences of climate on relatively poor rural societies. Building entirely on original primary sources, this dissertation provides evidence that weather shocks raised property crime, triggered civil conflict and shaped patterns of human settlement in British colonial Africa and Asia during the first half of the twentieth century (~1880-1960). By merging the theoretical and empirical insights of several strands of literature (e.g. economics, history, geography), this dissertation has both academic and social merit. Its academic merit lies in its promise to disentangle the net effect of climate on societies from the many other contextual factors that may affect them. And its social merit lies in its capacity to reveal key factors that can mitigate the adverse consequences of weather shocks, enabling tailor-made policy interventions. In sum, the present dissertation contributes to a better understanding of long-term agrarian development in tropical Africa and Asia, offering fresh input to academic debates on how to mitigate the effects of weather extremes”

The role of forests in climate change mitigation : a discursive-institutional analysis of REDD+ MRV
Ochieng, Robert M. - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Bas Arts; Martin Herold, co-promotor(en): Ingrid Visseren-Hamakers; M. Brockhaus. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431712 - 172
forests - climatic change - mitigation - forest monitoring - developing countries - deforestation - forestry - bossen - klimaatverandering - mitigatie - bosmonitoring - ontwikkelingslanden - ontbossing - bosbouw

Since the advent of professional forestry in the 17th century, forest monitoring has been part and parcel of forest management, and has been implemented in different forms in many European countries. The practice of forest monitoring was later exported to the European colonies, and has since been taken over and conducted by post-colonial governments in many developing countries. From an earlier focus on assessment of timber stocks, the practice has evolved to include assessments of other forest variables than timber. Despite this evolution, national forest monitoring has remained largely timber-oriented, and a closed system with little participation of actors outside the state forestry bureaucracy. However, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) decision on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) has opened up new discussions on forest monitoring in developing countries. Specifically, the global discourse on monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of REDD+ outcomes has introduced new ideas and demands on the scope and objectives of forest monitoring, the actors to be involved, and resources to be used. Taken together, the emergence of the REDD+ MRV discourse and associated ideas calls for change in the institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in developing countries. Furthermore, while these ideas and demands are determined and agreed upon in an international negotiation process, they need to be translated and implemented in highly diverse country-specific contexts, with country-specific actors, ideas, interests, and institutions. Translating the REDD+ MRV discourse and ideas into national institutional arrangements thus involves negotiation and contestation among national stakeholders.

This dissertation examines the performance of REDD+ MRV in terms of its implementation and institutionalization in developing countries, and the political processes by which such institutionalization occurs. Specifically, it examines (1) the institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV; (2) how the concept of REDD+ MRV and associated ideas have materialized in new institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in developing countries; and (3) how discursive processes of policymaking and the argumentation and contestation inherent in such processes enable or constrain institutionalization. With this, the dissertation contributes to the literature on REDD+ MRV by examining forest monitoring from a social science perspective. While current research on REDD+ MRV remains highly technical, since it is assumed that forest monitoring is a neutral, apolitical activity, this study argues that monitoring deforestation is also political, and contributes by highlighting the political contestation involved in implementing REDD+ MRV at the national level. The dissertation also contributes to scientific debates on the performance of international environment agreements at the national level, and how contestation and negotiation among domestic stakeholders enable or constrain their institutionalization at the national level.

Chapter 1 introduces the research presented in this dissertation. It provides an overview of the emergence of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) within the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as a climate mitigation strategy, and argues that the UNFCCC’s decisions on monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) for REDD+ pose new ideas and demands for forest monitoring in developing countries. It elucidates the research that has been done on REDD+ MRV so far, identifies gaps in the existing literature on forest monitoring for REDD+, and delineates the objectives of the study. It discusses the theoretical basis and framework for the study, explaining how the main theoretical concept – discursive institutionalism – is combined with the Policy Arrangement Approach (PAA) to examine how REDD+ MRV has been shaped and institutionalized in new or reformed institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in developing countries, and discursive processes by which such institutionalization occurs. After presenting the conceptual framework, four research questions are outlined, namely:

1. What is the institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV in terms of its implementation in developing countries?

2. How have institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in Peru evolved, and how and to what extent has their evolution been shaped by international discourses on forests, especially REDD+ MRV?

3. How and to what extent has the concept of MRV become institutionalized in new or reformed institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania, and how can differences in this extent of institutionalization across the countries be explained?

4. How has discursive politics enabled or constrained institutionalization of MRV in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania?

The chapter then describes the study’s overall research design and methodology, and ends by outlining the structure of the dissertation.

Chapter 2 examines the institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV. The chapter draws on regime literature to conceptualize UNFCCC and its decisions on REDD+ MRV as an international institution or regime, and outlines the technical and good governance requirements for MRV. Drawing on Young and Levy’s (1999) framework for assessing effectiveness of international institutions, and building on UNFCCC and IPCC methodological guidelines for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), and good governance literature, it develops criteria and indicators for assessing progress in implementing the identified technical and governance requirements for MRV. Three dimensions on which effectiveness of REDD+ MRV can be evaluated are developed: ‘owning technical methods for MRV’, ‘developing administrative competence’ and ‘integrating good governance’ in MRV. The framework is applied to assess and compare institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV in 13 REDD+ countries, based on a review of national and international documents. The Chapter shows that REDD+ countries have high to very high ownership of technical methods. However, the majority of the countries rank only low to moderate on administrative capacity and good governance. This means that although countries have started developing technical methods for MRV, they are yet to develop the competence necessary to administer MRV and to incorporate aspects of good governance in MRV. The chapter explains the scores and suggest ways of improving implementation of REDD+ MRV.

Chapter 3 examines how and to what extent global discourses and ideas on forests, especially the concept of REDD+ MRV, have shaped institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in developing countries, using the case of Peru. It draws on discursive institutionalism to conceptualize REDD+ MRV as a discourse and identify the ideas represented in the discourse. It then combines discursive institutionalism with the policy arrangement approach to craft a framework for examining the extent to which REDD+ MRV, and other global discourses, have shaped national institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in Peru. An analytical distinction is made between ‘shallow’ and ‘deep’ institutional change. The chapter identifies three distinct discourses – productivist forest philosophy, multiple-use and sustainable forest management philosophies and REDD+ MRV – that have shaped forest monitoring in Peru. The chapter shows that while all the three discourses have shaped the scope and objectives of forest monitoring, the actors involved, resources used, and rules governing forest assessments, none of them has led to ‘deep’ institutionalization of forest monitoring. On REDD+ MRV specifically, the chapter shows that it has expanded the scope and objectives of forest assessments in Peru, inspired the mobilization of new actors and resources, and spawned the development of new rules to govern forest monitoring. However, these institutional changes are not yet ‘deep’, since the new rules for forest inventories have not yet been formally adopted, and the agencies envisioned to implement forest monitoring have not been established. The chapter concludes that forest monitoring in general, and REDD+ MRV in particular, is only shallowly institutionalized in Peru.

Chapter 4 compares how and to what extent the concept of REDD+ MRV has institutionalized in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania. To do so, the chapter draws on insights from discursive institutionalism operationalized by means of the policy arrangement approach to develop the analytical categories of ‘shallow’, ‘shallow-intermediate’, ‘deep-intermediate’ and ‘deep’ institutionalization, and uses these categories to examine the extent of institutionalization across the countries. The chapter shows that in all three countries, REDD+ MRV has institutionalized in new or revised aims, scope and strategies for forest monitoring, and the development of new agencies and mobilization of new actors and resources. New legislation to anchor forest monitoring in law, and procedures to institutionalize the roles of the various agencies, are also being developed. Nevertheless, the extent of institutionalization of MRV varies across the countries, with Indonesia experiencing ‘deep’ institutionalization, Peru ‘shallow-intermediate’, and Tanzania ‘intermediate-deep’ institutionalization. To explain the differences in institutionalization, the chapter examines the theoretical factors for discourse institutionalization and their manifestation in each country. It shows that the relatively ‘deep’ institutionalization of REDD+ MRV in Indonesia and Tanzania is due to the presence of all five factors for discourse institutionalization. Only one factor is found to be present in Peru, and the ‘shallow- intermediate’ institutionalization of REDD+ is largely due to the absence of other factors. Based on the findings and conclusions, the chapter draws lessons to inform institutionalization of MRV in other countries.

Chapter 5 examines how the discursive politics of MRV policymaking has enabled or constrained institutionalization of REDD+ MRV in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania. To do this, it draws on the concept of discourse – understood as ideas and the interactive process of policymaking and public deliberation – to examine the actors involved in MRV policy development in the respective countries, and how the deliberation, argumentation and contestation among them (discursive politics) have enabled or constrained institutionalization. The chapter shows that in all countries, the methodologies to be used for MRV, the actors to be involved and their roles were contentious. However, it shows that in Indonesia and Tanzania, where there was a broad-based national discourse on MRV, and where policy actors agreed on the strategies to implement MRV and the role of different actors in forest monitoring, there is relatively ‘deep’ institutionalization compared to Peru, where such discourse and agreement were lacking. The chapter discusses how the discursive process facilitated institutionalization of REDD+ MRV in Indonesia and Tanzania and constrained the same in Peru. It concludes that how discursive politics is played matters in institutionalization.

Chapter 6 presents the conclusions on the study. It draws on the empirical chapters to answer the research questions, concluding that majority (60%) of the analysed countries has achieved at least a ‘moderate’ institutional effectiveness for MRV. Further, it concludes that the concept of REDD+ MRV has materialized in reformed institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania, albeit to varying degrees. The chapter also concludes that forest monitoring for REDD+ is not only a technical activity, but is also political. Specifically, it concludes that decisions on what exactly is to be monitored and reported, by whom and using what methods are determined through political negotiations, and that how this political process is managed has a significant influence on how, and the extent to which, MRV is institutionalized. After drawing the conclusions, the chapter reflects on the key theoretical concepts used in the study by outlining how discursive institutionalism and the policy arrangement approach can be used to enrich one another. The chapter ends by outlining several policy recommendations. First, it recommends that while the development of new agencies to implement REDD+ MRV is necessary in some countries, care should be taken to avoid establishment of many agencies. Where possible, policy makers and donors should consider working with and strengthening existing agencies before deciding to establish new agencies. Second, it recommends that more investments be directed to organizing inclusive MRV policy coordination processes, since the politics involved in these processes determine the extent to which REDD+ MRV is institutionalized. Lastly, investments in policy coordination should be accompanied with investments in broader communicative political discourse to enlighten all REDD+ stakeholders on MRV policy processes and the strategies being proposed, while seeking the views and feedback these strategies. This is necessary if the proposed strategies are to be legitimate in the eyes of key REDD+ stakeholders.

Preserving Urmia Lake in a changing world : reconciling anthropogenic and climate drivers by hydrological modelling and policy assessment
Shadkam, Somayeh - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Pavel Kabat, co-promotor(en): Fulco Ludwig; Pieter van Oel. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431866 - 140
lakes - hydrology - climatic change - modeling - water resources - water management - environmental protection - iran - meren - hydrologie - klimaatverandering - modelleren - watervoorraden - waterbeheer - milieubescherming

Urmia Lake, in north-western Iran, is an important internationally recognized natural area designated as a RAMSAR site and UNESCO Biosphere Reserve. Over the last 20 years, the surface area of Urmia Lake has declined by 80%. As a result, the salinity of the lake has sharply increased which is disturbing the ecosystems, local agriculture and livelihoods, regional health, as well as tourism, which could amplify economic, political and ethnic tensions in this already volatile region. In response to that, Iranian government established the ten-year “Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP)” proposing six approaches in terms of controlling, protecting, surveying, studying and supplying water from other sources. This study first assessed the main reasons for the decreased inflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, including reservoirs and irrigation modules. The results showed that climate change was the main contributor to this inflow reduction. However, water resources development, particularly water use for irrigation, has played a substantial role as well. In the second step assessed Urmia lake inflow under future climate change and irrigation scenarios. Then, the (VIC) model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability. The results showed that the water resources plans are not robust to changes in climate. In other words, if future climate change is limited due to rapid mitigation measures (RCP2.6) the new strategy of reduction of irrigation water use can contribute to preserve Urmia Lake.

The next step of this study assessed the quantitative impacts of ULRP by introducing a constructive framework. The framework depicts real water saving by distinguishing between water withdrawals, depletion, and demand in the context of uncertainties in future demand and supply. The results showed that although the ULRP helps to increase inflow by up to 57% it is unlikely to fully reach its target for three main reasons. The first reason is decreasing return flows due to increasing irrigation efficiency. The second reason is increased depletion which is due to neglecting the fact that agricultural water demand is currently higher than available water for agriculture. The third reason is ignoring the potential impact of climate change. However, there still can be some additional none-quantifiable barriers and challenges that may cause the failure of the restoration plan. Therefore, in the last step, this study used two types of qualitative data to explore these aspects: first, the opinions from 40 experts and the in-situ observation of some of the ULRP implementation practices. The results indicate a number of challenges for the ULRP implementation including the water use regulations and the agricultural measures. In addition, (water) demand-side measures such as crop pattern changes were more supported, as opposed to supply-side measures.

This thesis showed that the sustainable approach to preserve Urmia Lake should incorporate both demand management (considering socioeconomic complexity) and flexible supply management strategies (to deal with uncertainties in climate variability and change) in a participatory approach. To be prepared for the future, also scenarios with reduced inflow into Urmia Lake, either due to climate change or water resources development, need to be considered to deal with considerable amounts of variability in the current system and with future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions.

Agricultural policy objectives on productivity, climate change adaptation and mitigation : policy assessment for the Netherlands
Polman, Nico ; Michels, Rolf ; Boonstra, Carla ; Theune, Elmar ; Venema, Gabe ; Reinhard, Stijn ; Velden, Nico van der; Silvis, Huib ; Vrolijk, Maarten - \ 2017
Wageningen : Wageningen Economic Research (Wageningen Economic Research memorandum 2017-045) - 33
agricultural policy - climatic change - netherlands - landbouwbeleid - klimaatverandering - nederland
This paper offers a systematic overview of policies that may cause synergies and trade-offs between
agricultural policy objectives on productivity, climate change adaptation and mitigation for the
Netherlands. Implementation of the climate policy is to a large extent based on voluntary agreements
with the private sector, but supported by regulations, subsidies, tax incentives, emissions trade,
extension services and demonstration projects. Synergies between objectives are exploited through
policy different programmes including public private partnerships (PPP) at different institutional levels.
The Mekong’s future flows : quantifying hydrological changes and developing adaptation options
Hoang, Long Phi - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Pavel Kabat; Rik Leemans, co-promotor(en): Fulco Ludwig; Michelle van Vliet. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431088 - 159
hydrology - mekong river - modeling - climatic change - socioeconomics - water resources - water use - south east asia - hydrologie - mekong - modelleren - klimaatverandering - sociale economie - watervoorraden - watergebruik - zuidoost-azië

This multidisciplinary study focuses on projecting and adapting to future hydrological changes in the Mekong – an international river of global significance in terms of rapidly increasing human pressures and climate-change vulnerability. A modelling framework was developed to project future changes in both the river flow regime and hydrological extremes (i.e. high/low flows and floods), under multiple scenarios of climate change, irrigation and hydropower developments. Furthermore, we developed a combined quantitative-qualitative approach to develop suitable adaptation measures and strategies to future floods in the Mekong Delta being a key vulnerability hotspot.

Results show that the Mekong’s future flow regime is subjected to substantial changes under climate change and human developments. Climate change will intensify the hydrological cycle, resulting in increasing average river flows (between +5 % and +16%, annually), and more frequent and extreme high flows during the wet season. Flow regime shows substantial alterations in the seasonal flow distributions under the combined impacts of climate change, irrigation expansions and hydropower developments. While dry season flows increase strongly (monthly changes up to +150%), wet season flows show contrasting changes with reductions during June - October (up to -25%) and substantial increases during November – December (up to 36%). A follow-up modelling assessment for the Mekong Delta shows substantial increases in flood hazards under climate change and sea level rise, shown by higher flood frequencies and flood depths across the whole delta. Increasing flood hazards therefore represents a key issue to be addressed in terms of future adaptation. The adaptation appraisal study further shows that effective adaptation requires looking beyond sole infrastructural investments. Instead, technological innovations for flood risk management combined with improved governance and institutional capacities offer ample opportunities to adapt to future hydrological changes.

This study projects substantial future hydrological changes under future climate change and accelerating socioeconomic developments and shows potentially serious consequences for water related safety and sustainable water resources uses and allocations. Furthermore, this study demonstrates amble opportunities to manage future changes through strategic development planning and through adaptive interventions. Insights from this study address the needs for quantified future hydrological changes and emphasize adequate adaptation to the associated risks in an important international river experiencing climate change and rapid socioeconomic developments.

Technical documentation of the soil model VSD+ : Status A
Mol-Dijkstra, J.P. ; Reinds, G.J. - \ 2017
Wageningen : Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment (WOt-technical report 88) - 88
soil - soil acidity - models - nutrient availability - soil carbon sequestration - climatic change - precipitation - bodem - bodemaciditeit - modellen - voedingsstoffenbeschikbaarheid - koolstofvastlegging in de bodem - klimaatverandering - neerslag
VSD+ is een model om de gevolgen te berekenen van atmosferische depositie en klimaatverandering voorbodemverzuring, de beschikbaarheid van voedingsstoffen en het vastleggen van koolstof. Het model isontwikkeld ter onderbouwing van strategieën om de uitstoot van zwavel (S) en stikstof (N) in Europa teverminderen. Dit document biedt een samenvatting van de theorie waar het model op gestoeld is, detechnische documentatie hiervan alsmede een beschrijving van het testen, het valideren en de sensitiviteitsanalysevan het model. De processen zoals beschreven in het artikel over VSD+ zijn met goed gevolg getest.De gevoeligheidsanalyse gaf aan dat de constante voor het evenwicht tussen H+ en Al3+ in de bodemoplossingen de Ca-verweringssnelheid de parameters zijn, die voor een groot gedeelte de waarde van degesimuleerde pH bepalen. Voor basenverzadiging zijn de belangrijkste parameters de uitwisselingsconstantetussen H+ en basische kationen en de verwering van Ca. Voor de C/N ratio van bodemorganische stof zijn Cen N in het strooisel en de opname van N zeer bepalende factoren. De nitraatconcentratie hangt sterk samenmet het nerslagoverschot en de netto input van N---VSD+ is a model to calculate effects of atmospheric deposition and climate change on soil acidification,nutrient availability and carbon sequestration. The model has been developed to support emission abatementstrategies of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. This document contains a summary of the modeltheory, technical documentation and descriptions of testing, validations and the sensitivity analysis of themodel. The processes described in the paper about VSD+ have been tested successfully. The sensitivityanalysis showed that the constant for the equilibrium between H+ and Al3+ in the soil solution and theweathering rate of Ca are the parameters that to a large extent determine the value of the simulated pH. Forbase saturation, most important parameters are the exchange constant between H+ and base cations andthe weathering of Ca. For the C/N ratio of soil organic matter, litterfall of C and N and the uptake of N areimportant influencing factors. The nitrate concentration strongly depends on the leaching flux and the net N input
Marine complex adaptive systems : theory, legislation and management practices
Bigagli, Emanuele - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Arnold Bregt, co-promotor(en): M. Craglia. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431255 - 160
marine areas - marine environment - adaptation - environmental management - oceans - climate - environmental legislation - global warming - climatic change - mariene gebieden - marien milieu - adaptatie - milieubeheer - oceanen - klimaat - milieuwetgeving - opwarming van de aarde - klimaatverandering

Anthropogenic and climate-related stressors challenge the health of nearly every part of the global oceans. They affect the capacity of oceans to regulate global weather and climate, as well as ocean productivity and food services, and result in the loss or degradation of marine habitats and biodiversity. Moreover, they have a negative impact on maritime economic sectors and on the social welfare of dependent coastal populations. In order to overcome the deficiencies of traditional single-sector management, in the recent decades several scientific approaches emerged, based on the view of marine systems as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS), i.e. systems where components interact in non-linear, path dependent ways, with lock-in and feedback loop mechanisms, and unpredictable effects also across scales. These approaches have been introduced into the texts of several international agreements related to marine CAS, and related management practices, with contrasting results in relation to effectiveness and integration of governance.

This thesis evaluates for the first time the current international and European legal frameworks from the perspective of marine CAS. To accomplish this objective, four research objectives are formulated: (1) Develop a framework for marine CAS assessment and management; (2) Evaluate the entire European Union (EU) legal framework against the framework developed; (3) Evaluate the international legal framework for the assessment and management of the global oceans against the framework developed; and (4) Evaluate the implementation of the EU and global legal frameworks into practice.

Chapter 2 develops a framework for marine CAS, based on the combination of two promising theoretical approaches: Adaptive Management (AM) and Transition Management (TM). The framework is based on the idea that AM and TM have the potential to overcome each other’s limitations, which are related to the insufficient attention to micro-level socio-economic components, and to the limited incorporation of environmental aspects into socio-technical assessments, respectively. More into detail, the proposed framework is articulated into three components. First, the two sets of marine social-ecological systems and connected socio-technical systems (e.g. fisheries, maritime transportation, coastal tourism and energy) must be clearly identified, and the complex interactions and influences between socio-economic patterns of production and consumption, and ecological components must be assessed. Second, the achievement of ecological resilience of a marine social-ecological system should be performed in coordination with transitions of unsustainable connected socio-technical systems. This implies that sustainability should be evaluated in relation to the pressures socio-technical systems generate on the ecological resilience of connected social-ecological systems, and related impacts. Third, the implementation of the two approaches should be articulated into iterative, learning- and science-based policy cycles, with mechanisms to foster coordination between the policy cycles of social-ecological and socio-technical systems. The benefits of this framework are threefold. First, the assessment of the two sets of social-ecological and socio-technical systems, taken together, allows to overcome current AM limitations and include micro-level socio-economic components into the assessment of ecological resilience. Second, by linking AM managers with established transition arenas, it is possible to overcome TM limitations and streamline the consideration of ecological aspects into the TM process. Third, by linking AM and TM policy cycles, it is possible to reduce the current legal and policy fragmentation.

Chapters 3 and 4 apply the framework proposed in Chapter 2 to evaluate the EU and global legal frameworks for the assessment and management of marine CAS. Chapter 3 presents the first comprehensive review ever realised of the entire EU legal framework, composed of more than 12,000 EU legal acts, from the perspective of marine CAS assessment and management. It concludes that the EU legislation does not provide a fully coherent framework for the assessment and management of EU marine CAS. Although the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD; 2008/56/EC) is a major step towards this purpose, the present research highlights three major limitations: (1) the limited capacity of the MSFD to support the coordination between Member States sharing the same marine region or sub-region; (2) the insufficient characterisation of marine ecological resilience, in particular in relation to socio-economic elements, ecosystem services, human benefits and cross-scale interactions; and (3) the limited capacity of the MSFD to tackle the fragmentation of the EU legal framework and integrate ecological resilience into the objectives of sector-based laws and policies.

Chapter 4 reviews 500 multilateral agreements, evaluated for the first time from the perspective of marine CAS. It shows that there is no international agreement aiming at the ecological resilience of the global oceans social-ecological system. Instead, the international legal framework is fragmented along two dimensions. On the one side, global agreements focus on specific objectives for determined socio-economic activities, ecological features or anthropogenic pressures. On the other side, regional agreements are in place for 18 ocean regions of the world, with a varying level of inclusion of elements of marine CAS assessment and management. The need is highlighted for a reformed global ocean governance framework, which should be based on a bio-geographical approach to the ecological resilience of the global oceans, and build on iteration, learning, and science-based advice to policy and management.

Chapter 5 evaluates the implementation of the EU and global legal frameworks into the practice of assessment and management of a case-study area, the Adriatic Sea. It shows the importance of the MSFD as the first policy trying to deliver a CAS approach to marine assessment and management. However, the case-study investigation confirms the three limitations of the MSFD, laying in: 1) an insufficient geographical approach, where implementation is driven at national level and the requirement of cross-border cooperation is weak; 2) the vagueness of legal requirements, and the limited capacity to include socio-economic aspects into the required assessment; and 3) an insufficient capacity to coordinate with other laws, policies and programmes at various levels of governance. Based on the identified limitations, suggestions are advanced on how to strengthen the implementation of the MSFD, both at Adriatic and EU level. These suggestions are further advanced in Chapter 6, which includes detailed proposals on how to foster integrated large-scale marine monitoring in the EU, in order to contribute to the implementation of the MSFD in an efficient and effective way, also in relation to costs.

Chapter 7 synthesizes the major findings of this thesis and evaluates the capacity of the framework to deliver a CAS approach to marine systems. It concludes that AM and TM, although holding different visions on sustainability and referring to different principles, have the potential to be put in synergy at the practical level. Further scientific research and management practices should focus on the need for AM and TM to overcome the relative isolation and foster synergies across sector-based management, in order to integrate environmental considerations into economic sectors. Suggestions are advanced to improve legal frameworks and policy practices at the global and EU level. They focus on the need: (i) to fill the gaps in the geographical scope of legal texts and to foster international cooperation at the right social-ecological scale; (ii) to increase guidance in translating complex scientific requirements into clear management objectives, and improve related data collection and sharing; and (iii) to reduce current legal and policy fragmentation through targeted, ecological resilience-based marine environmental impact assessments and maritime spatial planning. Lines for further scientific research are suggested, focusing on: (i) improving the evidence-base through additional case-studies; (ii) analysing legal frameworks and governance regimes in place for other marine social-ecological systems, like e.g. the United States of America, Canada, Australia and China; (iii) improving existing tools, or creating new ones for marine ecological resilience assessment; and (iv) developing innovative instruments and mechanisms to strengthen global oceans governance.

Grasklaverteelt motor voor samenwerking en klimaatadaptatie : 'climatecafe' evalueert samenwerking akkerbouw- en veeteeltbedrijven
Wit, Jan de; Adelhart Toorop, R.L. de - \ 2016
Ekoland (2016)12. - ISSN 0926-9142 - p. 20 - 21.
klimaatadaptatie - klimaatverandering - samenwerking - grasklaver - teelt - biologische landbouw - gewassen - gewasbescherming - akkerbouw - veehouderij - climate adaptation - climatic change - cooperation - grass-clover swards - cultivation - organic farming - crops - plant protection - arable farming - livestock farming
Het wordt natter en warmer in Nederland voorspelt het KNMI. Is de biologische boer bezig met deze verandering? Dat valt wel mee. Er wordt gewerkt aan een goede bodemkwaliteit en structuur. Dat draagt bij aan het aanpassingsvermogen aan een veranderend klimaat (‘adaptatie’). Grasklaver als rustgewas helpt de akkerbouwer daarbij, zo blijkt ook uit modelberekeningen.
Towards Water Smart Cities : climate adaptation is a huge opportunity to improve the quality of life in cities
Hattum, Tim ; Blauw, Maaike ; Bergen Jensen, Marina ; Bruin, Karianne de - \ 2016
Wageningen : Wageningen University & Research (Wageningen Environmental Research rapport 2787) - 60
water - waterbeheer - stedelijke gebieden - steden - klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - water management - urban areas - towns - climatic change - climate adaptation
Arctic climate change and decadal variability
Linden, Eveline C. van der - \ 2016
University. Promotor(en): Wilco Hazeleger, co-promotor(en): R. Bintanja. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462579453 - 197
climatic change - arctic regions - global warming - temperature - models - carbon dioxide - sea water - barents sea - klimaatverandering - arctische gebieden - opwarming van de aarde - temperatuur - modellen - kooldioxide - zeewater - barentszzee

High northern latitudes exhibit enhanced near-surface warming in a climate with increasing greenhouse gases compared to other parts of the globe, indicating an amplified climate response to external forcing. Decadal to multidecadal variability sometimes enhances and at other times reduces the long-term trends. Therefore, the influence of internal variability should be taken into account when externally forced climate signals are assessed.
This thesis contributes to our understanding of Arctic climate projections by clarifying the role of coupled ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere processes on the long-term trends and decadal variability of the Arctic climate system. Important mechanisms linked to the location of the sea ice margin and ocean heat transports into the Arctic have been identified and were shown to have a substantial effect on the Arctic's response to climate change.

Waarheen met het Nederlandse bos?
Hekhuis, Harrie ; Ouden, J. den - \ 2016
Vakblad Natuur Bos Landschap 13 (2016)127. - ISSN 1572-7610 - p. 4 - 7.
bosbeheer - houtachtige planten - gebruikswaarde - nederland - klimaatverandering - ecosystemen - bostypen - recreatie - zandgronden - oppervlakte (areaal) - forest administration - woody plants - use value - netherlands - climatic change - ecosystems - forest types - recreation - sandy soils - acreage
Het Nederlandse bos is een populair park met jaarlijks honderden miljoenen bezoeken. Het bos is een belangrijke pijler van de Nederlandse natuur met bijvoorbeeld veel Natura 2000-habitats, nieuwe wildernissen en een bron van hernieuwbare grondstoffen. Welke kennis en beheer zijn nodig om aan al deze functies tegemoet te blijven komen? Wij zijn ons als bosbeheerders, beleidsmakers, onderzoekers en opleiders onvoldoende bewust van de forse uitdagingen waar het Nederlandse bosbeheer voor staat!
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