Measuring the effect of risk attitude on marketing behavior
Franken, J.R.V. ; Pennings, J.M.E. ; Garcia, P. - \ 2014
Agricultural Economics 45 (2014)5. - ISSN 0169-5150 - p. 525 - 535.
farmers subjective probabilities - econometric estimation - production contracts - northern thailand - preference - aversion - perceptions - decisions - construct - india
Despite extensive study, researchers continue to search for consistent and reliable measures of risk preferences to explain market behavior. We find that a measure, combining experiments rooted in expected utility theory and measures derived from surveys, explains spot and contractual sales, but does not exhibit substantially greater explanatory power than its underlying components. Survey-based measures are generally more significant indicators of marketing choices, but experimental measures reveal how risk attitudes vary over a range of probable outcomes, which is important in light of increased commodity price volatility. Given recently identified limitations on the applicability of expected utility theory, we suggest that researchers include survey methods to obtain low-cost supplemental measures.
Crop Production Contracts and Marketing Strategies: What Drives Their Use?
Franken, J.R.V. ; Pennings, J.M.E. ; Garcia, P. - \ 2012
Agribusiness 28 (2012)3. - ISSN 0742-4477 - p. 324 - 340.
econometric estimation - risk preferences - attitudes - behavior - aversion
Numerous crop marketing and risk management tools are available. Research relating producers’ risk attitudes to their use of these tools has produced mixed results, and most studies focus on individual tools, neglecting potential complementarities in information they provide. Little is known about the proportion in which individual tools are used, e.g., the percentage of the crop that is forward sold as opposed to hedged. This study identifies factors, including risk attitude, that impact the proportion of corn and soybean producers’ sales through spot markets, futures, and options, as well as forward and production contracts, and investigates contract complementarity and substitutability using survey and accounting data, and causal modeling.