Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Wageningen Urban Rainfall experiment
Leth, T.C. van; Overeem, A. ; Uijlenhoet, R. ; Leijnse, H. - \ 2018
disdrometer - microwave link - precipitation
Microwave link test setup for precipitation measurements. Includes 3 microwave and 1 optical link along the same path. Also included are data from 5 disdrometers at different locations along the path.
Technical documentation of the soil model VSD+ : Status A
Mol-Dijkstra, J.P. ; Reinds, G.J. - \ 2017
Wageningen : Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment (WOt-technical report 88) - 88
soil - soil acidity - models - nutrient availability - soil carbon sequestration - climatic change - precipitation - bodem - bodemaciditeit - modellen - voedingsstoffenbeschikbaarheid - koolstofvastlegging in de bodem - klimaatverandering - neerslag
VSD+ is een model om de gevolgen te berekenen van atmosferische depositie en klimaatverandering voorbodemverzuring, de beschikbaarheid van voedingsstoffen en het vastleggen van koolstof. Het model isontwikkeld ter onderbouwing van strategieën om de uitstoot van zwavel (S) en stikstof (N) in Europa teverminderen. Dit document biedt een samenvatting van de theorie waar het model op gestoeld is, detechnische documentatie hiervan alsmede een beschrijving van het testen, het valideren en de sensitiviteitsanalysevan het model. De processen zoals beschreven in het artikel over VSD+ zijn met goed gevolg getest.De gevoeligheidsanalyse gaf aan dat de constante voor het evenwicht tussen H+ en Al3+ in de bodemoplossingen de Ca-verweringssnelheid de parameters zijn, die voor een groot gedeelte de waarde van degesimuleerde pH bepalen. Voor basenverzadiging zijn de belangrijkste parameters de uitwisselingsconstantetussen H+ en basische kationen en de verwering van Ca. Voor de C/N ratio van bodemorganische stof zijn Cen N in het strooisel en de opname van N zeer bepalende factoren. De nitraatconcentratie hangt sterk samenmet het nerslagoverschot en de netto input van N---VSD+ is a model to calculate effects of atmospheric deposition and climate change on soil acidification,nutrient availability and carbon sequestration. The model has been developed to support emission abatementstrategies of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. This document contains a summary of the modeltheory, technical documentation and descriptions of testing, validations and the sensitivity analysis of themodel. The processes described in the paper about VSD+ have been tested successfully. The sensitivityanalysis showed that the constant for the equilibrium between H+ and Al3+ in the soil solution and theweathering rate of Ca are the parameters that to a large extent determine the value of the simulated pH. Forbase saturation, most important parameters are the exchange constant between H+ and base cations andthe weathering of Ca. For the C/N ratio of soil organic matter, litterfall of C and N and the uptake of N areimportant influencing factors. The nitrate concentration strongly depends on the leaching flux and the net N input
Two and a half years of country-wide rainfall maps using radio links from commercial cellular telecommunication networks
Overeem, A. ; Leijnse, H. ; Uijlenhoet, R. - \ 2016
Water Resources Research 52 (2016)10. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 8039 - 8065.
measurement - microwave links - precipitation - remote sensing

Although rainfall estimation employing microwave links from cellular telecommunication networks is recognized as a new promising measurement technique, its potential for long-term large-scale operational rainfall monitoring remains to be demonstrated. This study contributes to this endeavor by deriving a continuous series of rainfall maps from a large 2.5 year microwave link data set of, on average, 3383 links (2044 link paths) covering Netherlands (∼3.5 × 104 km2), a midlatitude country (∼5°E, ∼52°N) with a temperate climate. Maps are extensively verified against an independent gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set for different temporal (15 min, 1 h, 1 day, 1 month) and spatial (0.9, 74 km2) scales. The usefulness of different steps in the rainfall retrieval algorithm, i.e., a wet-dry classification method and a filter to remove outliers, is systematically assessed. A novel dew filter is developed to correct for dew-induced wet antenna attenuation, which, although a relative underestimation of 6% to 9% is found, generally yields good results. The microwave link rainfall estimation technique performs well for the summer months (June, July, August), even outperforming interpolation of automatic rain gauge data (with a density of ∼1 gauge per 1000 km2), but large deviations are found for the winter months (December, January, February). These deviations are generally expected to be related to frozen or melting precipitation. Hence, our results show the potential of commercial microwave links for long-term large-scale operational rainfall monitoring.

De Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): een snel neerslag-afvoermodel speciaal voor laaglandstroomgebieden
Brauer, C.C. ; Torfs, P.J.J.F. ; Teuling, A.J. ; Uijlenhoet, R. - \ 2016
Stromingen : vakblad voor hydrologen 22 (2016)1. - ISSN 1382-6069 - p. 7 - 18.
neerslag - hydrologie van stroomgebieden - modellen - afvoerwater - laaglandgebieden - stroomgebieden - grondwater - oppervlaktewater - kwel - reservoirs - droogte - risicoanalyse - precipitation - catchment hydrology - models - effluents - lowland areas - watersheds - groundwater - surface water - seepage - drought - risk analysis
De Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) is een nieuw neerslag-afvoermodel dat het gat moet vullen tussen complexe, ruimtelijk gedistribueerde modellen die vaak gebruikt worden in laaglandstroomgebieden en simpele, ruimtelijk geïntegreerde, parametrische modellen die voornamelijk zijn ontwikkeld voor hellende stroomgebieden. WALRUS houdt expliciet rekening met hydrologische processen die belangrijk zijn in laaglandgebieden, in het bijzonder (1) de koppeling tussen grondwater en onverzadigde zone, (2) vochttoestandafhankelijke stroomroutes, (3) grondwater-oppervlaktewaterterugkoppeling en (4) kwel, wegzijging en het inlaten of wegpompen van oppervlaktewater. WALRUS bestaat uit een gekoppeld reservoir voor grondwater en onverzadigde zone, een reservoir voor snelle stroomroutes en een oppervlaktewaterreservoir. Het is geschikt voor operationele toepassingen omdat het efficiënt rekent en numeriek stabiel is. In de vrij toegankelijke modelcode zijn standaardrelaties geïmplementeerd, zodat er slechts vier parameters overblijven die gekalibreerd hoeven te worden. Het model is geschikt voor het operationeel simuleren van hoogwater en droogte ten behoeve van risico-analyses en scenario-analyses, voor het ontwerpen van infrastructuur en voor het aanvullen van ontbrekende gegevens in afvoermeetreeksen
Een nieuwe en handzame lysimeter: eerste stap naar een nationaal netwerk voor de werkelijke verdamping?
Voortman, Bernard ; Witte, J.P. ; Rheenen, Hans van; Bosveld, F. ; Elbers, J.A. ; Bolt, F.J.E. van der; Heijkers, J. ; Hoogendoorn, Jan ; Bolman, A. ; Spek, T. ; Voogt, M. - \ 2016
Stromingen : vakblad voor hydrologen 22 (2016)2. - ISSN 1382-6069 - p. 49 - 63.
hydrologie - neerslag - waterbalans - grondwater - lysimeters - evaporatie - hydrology - precipitation - water balance - groundwater - evaporation
Vrijwel overal op aarde verdampt meer dan de helft van het neerslagwater, ook in Nederland. Toch wordt deze grote verliespost in ons land slechts sporadisch gemeten. Door inspanningen van kennisinstituten, bedrijven en overheid is daarom een lysimeter ontwikkeld. Metingen in 2014 en 2015 op twee locaties vertonen opvallende verschillen, maar ook grote overeenkomsten, met eddy-correlatiemetingen. Schattingen van de verdamping via satellietdata zijn hoger dan de metingen. Tijd daarom, om metingen in het veld te combineren met modellen en waarnemingen vanuit de ruimte
Lisse effect, Wieringermeer effect en omgekeerd Wieringermeer effect : internationaal onderkend
Dekker, L.W. ; Oostindie, K. ; Wesseling, J.G. - \ 2016
Stromingen : vakblad voor hydrologen 26 (2016)2. - ISSN 1382-6069 - p. 23 - 38.
fluctuaties - neerslag - ingesloten lucht - bodemprofielen - hydrologische gegevens - monitoring - grondwaterstand - fluctuations - precipitation - entrapped air - soil profiles - hydrological data - groundwater level
Het Lisse effect, Wieringermeer effect en omgekeerd Wieringermeer effect zijn de oorzaak van onverwacht snelle en grote grondwaterstandsschommelingen. Het Lisse effect is het gevolg van luchtinsluiting tussen het infiltratiefront en het freatisch vlak. Het Wieringermeer en omgekeerd Wieringermeer effect zijn het gevolg van wederzijdse conversie van de volcapillaire zone in de grondwaterzone, na respectievelijk geringe verdamping en geringe neerslaghoeveelheden. In dit artikel wordt een kort overzicht gegeven van deze verschijnselen, die als eerste in Nederland zijn ontdekt en daarna wereldwijd zijn onderkend. Deze hydrologische fenomenen kunnen leiden tot problemen bij het correct modelleren van grondwaterstanden.
Land surface impacts on precipitation in the Netherlands
Daniels, E.E. - \ 2016
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Bert Holtslag, co-promotor(en): Ronald Hutjes; G. Lenderink. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462576674 - 151 p.
precipitation - land surface - land - environmental impact - land use - climatic change - urban areas - weather patterns - netherlands - neerslag - aardoppervlak - milieueffect - landgebruik - klimaatverandering - stedelijke gebieden - weerpatronen - nederland
Dit proefschrift bestudeert de effecten van landgebruiksveranderingen uit het verleden en in de toekomst op neerslag in Nederland door middel van analyses van gemeten regendata en het gebruik van een weermodel.
Meerwaarde van ruimtelijke neerslagdata voor het modelleren van stijghoogtefluctuaties
Ottow, Bouke Pieter ; Schuurmans, H. ; Steijn, T. van - \ 2015
Stromingen : vakblad voor hydrologen 24 (2015)4. - ISSN 1382-6069 - p. 43 - 52.
grondwaterstand - watersystemen - neerslag - grondwater - hydrologie - tijdreeksen - gegevensanalyse - grondwateraanvulling - groundwater level - water systems - precipitation - groundwater - hydrology - time series - data analysis - groundwater recharge
Om het effect van velerlei processen die van invloed zijn op grondwaterstanden goed te kunnen analyseren, is het belangrijk om goed te weten wat de respons van het grondwatersysteem is op de neerslag. Een methode om dat te modelleren is de PIRFICT tijdreeksanalyse geïmplementeerd in het programma Menyanthes. De meest gebruikte databron voor neerslag is de neerslagstations van het KNMI. Waar de neerslagstations soms 5 à 10 km van een peilbuis af staan, zorgen radargebaseerde neerslagproducten voor vlakdekkende informatie. Hiermee wordt een nauwkeuriger beeld van de lokale neerslag verkregen. De invloed van dit verschil op een tijdreeksanalysemodel is onderzocht voor 77 locaties met 109 peilbuisfilters in de Mariapeel (Noord-Brabant/Limburg). De gemiddelde verklaarde variantie van de modellen ging door gebruik van de Nationale Regenradar omhoog van 69,1% naar 76,9%. Het resultaat van deze case studie geeft aan dat het opportuun is om ook elders ruimtelijke informatie van neerslag te gebruiken voor grondwaterstudies.
Fine scale ecohydrological processes in northern peatlands and their relevance for the carbon cycle
Nijp, J.J. - \ 2015
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Frank Berendse; Sjoerd van der Zee, co-promotor(en): Juul Limpens; Klaas Metselaar. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462575837 - 202
ecohydrologie - veengebieden - koolstofcyclus - koolstof - klimaat - neerslag - droogte - bodem - ecohydrology - peatlands - carbon cycle - carbon - climate - precipitation - drought - soil
Environmental changes drive the temporal stability of semi-arid natural grasslands through altering species asynchrony
Xu, Z. ; Ren, H. ; Li, M.H. ; Ruijven, J. van; Han, X. ; Wan, S. ; Li, H. ; Yu, Q. ; Jiang, Y. ; Jiang, L. - \ 2015
Journal of Ecology 103 (2015)5. - ISSN 0022-0477 - p. 1308 - 1316.
nitrogen addition - statistical inevitability - competitive communities - ecosystem stability - water availability - plant diversity - inner-mongolia - biodiversity - productivity - precipitation
1.Stability is an important property of ecological systems, many of which are experiencing increasing levels of anthropogenic environmental changes. However, how these environmental changes influence ecosystem stability remains poorly understood. 2.We conducted an 8-year field experiment in a semi-arid natural grassland to explore the effects of two common environmental changes, precipitation and nitrogen enrichment, on the temporal stability of plant above-ground biomass. A split-plot design, with precipitation as the main plot factor and nitrogen as the subplot factor, was used. Temporal stability was related to potential explanatory abiotic and biotic variables using regressions and structural equation modelling. 3.Increase in growing season precipitation enhanced plant species richness and promoted temporal stability of plant above-ground biomass. Nitrogen fertilization, however, reduced both plant species richness and temporal stability of plant above-ground biomass. Contrary to expectations, species richness was not an important driver of stability. Instead, community temporal stability was mainly driven by water and nitrogen availability that modulated the degree of species asynchrony and, to a lesser extent, by the stability of dominant plant species. 4.Synthesis. Our results highlight the importance of limiting resources for regulating community biomass stability and suggest that the projected increase in growing season precipitation may potentially offset negative effects of increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition on species diversity and community stability in semi-arid grasslands.
Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya
Odongo, V.O. ; Tol, C. van der; Oel, P.R. van; Meins, F.M. ; Becht, R. ; Onyando, J.O. ; Su, Z. - \ 2015
Hydrological Processes 29 (2015)15. - ISSN 0885-6087 - p. 3276 - 3293.
long-term persistence - time-series - hurst phenomenon - climatic-change - impact - identification - hydrology - ethiopia - water - precipitation
Recent hydro-climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50¿years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35¿×¿106¿m3¿year-1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50¿years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes.
Berekening van uit- en afspoeling van nutriënten- en zware metalen ten behoeve van de EmissieRegistratie 2013
Renaud, L.V. ; Bonten, L.T.C. ; Groenendijk, P. ; Groenenberg, J.E. - \ 2015
Wageningen : Alterra, Wageningen-UR (Alterra-rapport 2638) - 61
landbouw - landgebruik - bodemchemie - neerslag - uitspoelen - fosfor - stikstof - emissie - monitoring - agriculture - land use - soil chemistry - precipitation - leaching - phosphorus - nitrogen - emission
In het kader van de nationale en internationale verplichting om de emissies en belasting van oppervlaktewater te rapporteren, is de uit- en afspoeling van nutriënten en zware metalen uit het landelijk gebied berekend. Met het landelijke emissiemodel STONE en STONE-ZM zijn de emissies naar het oppervlaktewater doorgerekend. Voor het bepalen van een gemiddelde verwachting van de uit- en afspoeling is de klimaatreeksmethode toegepast om de grote effecten van de dynamiek in het weer te filteren. Aangezien het neerslagoverschot van grote invloed is op de uit- en afspoeling van stikstof en fosfor.
Waterberging op landbouwgrond : wat doet dat met de waterkwaliteit?
Roelsma, J. ; Massop, H.T.L. ; Maaswaal, D. van; Wiegman, W. - \ 2015
H2O : tijdschrift voor watervoorziening en afvalwaterbehandeling 47 (2015)9. - ISSN 0166-8439 - p. 42 - 43.
landbouwgrond - meervoudig landgebruik - neerslag - wateropslag - afvoer - waterkwaliteit - stikstof - fosfor - monitoring - salland - agricultural land - multiple land use - precipitation - water storage - discharge - water quality - nitrogen - phosphorus
Waterschap Groot Salland heeft de afgelopen jaren een aantal waterbergingen ingericht, waarvan sommige ook voor de landbouw in gebruik zijn. Uit onderzoek blijkt dat het effect van de combinatie landbouw en waterberging – een zogenaamde landbouwberging – op de waterkwaliteit gering is. De verwachting is dat onder normale omstandigheden er zelfs sprake zal zijn van een afname van de stikstof, omdat een deel ervan in de landbouwberging opgeslagen wordt.
Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change
Pol, T.D. van der; Ierland, E.C. van; Gabbert, S.G.M. ; Weikard, H.P. ; Hendrix, E.M.T. - \ 2015
Journal of Environmental Management 154 (2015). - ISSN 0301-4797 - p. 40 - 47.
hydrologic design - future changes - flood damage - precipitation - model - risk - netherlands - management - extremes - state
Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable.
Assessment of uncertainties in simulated European precipitation
Haren, R. van - \ 2015
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Wilco Hazeleger, co-promotor(en): G.J. van Oldenborgh. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462572324 - 132
neerslag - simulatie - hydrologie - klimaatverandering - modellen - europa - precipitation - simulation - hydrology - climatic change - models - europe

The research presented in this thesis is aimed to understanding the changes and the simulation of precipitation in Europe. A correct representation of simulated (trends in) European precipitation is important to have confidence in projections of future changes therein. These projections are relevant for different hydrological applications. Among others, simulated changes of summer drying are often accompanied by an enhanced increase in air temperatures [Zampieri et al., 2009]. This can be expected to have large impacts on society and ecosystems, affecting, for example, water resources, agriculture and fire risk [Rowell, 2009]. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation are critical for estimates of future discharge extremes of large river basins, and changes in frequency of major flooding events [e.g. Kew et al., 2010].

The subjects that are studied in this thesis are divided in three parts: (1) evaluation of 20th century European precipitation trends; (2) effect of general circulation model (GCM) spatial resolution on simulated western European winter precipitation in the current climate; and (3) effect of GCM spatial resolution on simulated future summer drying in central and southern Europe.

In the first part of the thesis (chapters 2 and 3) an investigation of (extreme) precipitation trends in multi-model ensembles including both global and regional climate models is performed. The results show that these models fail to reproduce the observed trends over (parts of) the past century. In many regions the model spread does not cover the trend in the observations: the models significantly underestimate the observed trend. A misrepresentation of large scale atmospheric circulation changes in climate models is found to be responsible for the underestimation of winter precipitation trends in Europe over the past century. Additionally, the underestimation of trends in winter precipitation extremes in the Rhine basin is directly related to this as well. In summer a misrepresentation of sea surface temperature (SST) trends is responsible for the underestimation of summer precipitation trends along the coastal regions of western Europe.

The second part (chapter 4) investigates the effect of GCM spatial resolution on modeled precipitation over Europe using an atmosphere-only GCM at two resolutions (EC-Earth, ~25 km and ~112 km horizontal resolution). The results show that the high resolution model gives a more accurate representation of northern and central European winter precipitation. The medium resolution model has a larger positive bias in precipitation in most of the northern half of Europe. Storm tracks are better simulated in the high resolution model, providing for a more accurate horizontal moisture transport and precipitation. A decomposition of the precipitation difference between the medium- and high resolution model in a part related and a part unrelated to a difference in the distribution of vertical atmospheric velocity confirms that the reduced precipitation in the high resolution model is likely the result of a reduced moisture transport at this resolution: the precipitation difference in this area in unrelated to a difference in the distribution of vertical atmospheric velocity. In areas with orography the change in vertical velocity distribution is more important.

Using the same atmosphere-only model, the third part (chapter 5) of this thesis investigates the influence of GCM spatial resolution on the simulated future summer drying of central Europe. High resolution models have a more realistic representation of circulation in the current climate and could provide more confidence on future projections of circulation forced drying. The results show that the high resolution model is characterized by a stronger drying in spring and summer, mainly forced by circulation changes. The initial spring drying intensifies the summer drying by a positive soil moisture feedback. The results are confirmed by finding analogs of the difference between the high and medium-resolution model circulation in the natural variability in another ensemble of climate model simulations. In current climate, these show the same precipitation difference pattern resulting from the summer circulation difference. In future climate the spring circulation plays a key role as well. It is concluded that the reduction of circulation biases due to increased resolution gives higher confidence in the strong drying trend projected for central Europe by the high-resolution version of the model.

Uncertainty in the future change of extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin: the role of internal climate variability
Pelt, S.C. van; Beersma, J.J. ; Buishand, T.A. ; Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Schellekens, J. - \ 2015
Climate Dynamics 44 (2015)7. - ISSN 0930-7575 - p. 1789 - 1800.
klimaatverandering - neerslag - hydrologie van stroomgebieden - risicoanalyse - rijn - climatic change - precipitation - catchment hydrology - risk analysis - river rhine - local precipitation - change simulations - model - temperature - quantification - frequency - ensemble - version - gcm
Future changes in extreme multi-day precipitation will influence the probability of floods in the river Rhine basin. In this paper the spread of the changes projected by climate models at the end of this century (2081–2100) is studied for a 17-member ensemble of a single Global Climate Model (GCM) and results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble. All climate models were driven by the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. An analysis of variance model is formulated to disentangle the contributions from systematic differences between GCMs and internal climate variability. Both the changes in the mean and characteristics of extremes are considered. To estimate variances due to internal climate variability a bootstrap method was used. The changes from the GCM simulations were linked to the local scale using an advanced non-linear delta change approach. This approach uses climate responses of the GCM to transform the daily precipitation of 134 sub-basins of the river Rhine. The transformed precipitation series was used as input for the hydrological Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model to simulate future river discharges. Internal climate variability accounts for about 30 % of the total variance in the projected climate trends of average winter precipitation in the CMIP3 ensemble and explains a larger fraction of the total variance in the projected climate trends of extreme precipitation in the winter half-year. There is a good correspondence between the direction and spread of the changes in the return levels of extreme river discharges and extreme 10-day precipitation over the Rhine basin. This suggests that also for extreme discharges a large fraction of the total variance can be attributed to internal climate variability.
Rain events decrease boreal peatland net CO2 uptake through reduced light availability
Nijp, J.J. ; Limpens, J. ; Metselaar, K. ; Peichl, M. ; Nilsson, M. ; Zee, S.E.A.T.M. van der; Berendse, F. - \ 2015
Global Change Biology 21 (2015)6. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 2309 - 2320.
carbon-dioxide - soil respiration - sphagnum mosses - water-content - solar-radiation - climate-change - precipitation - accumulation - drought - balance
Boreal peatlands store large amounts of carbon, reflecting their important role in the global carbon cycle. The short-term exchange and the long-term storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in these ecosystems are closely associated with the permanently wet surface conditions and are susceptible to drought. Especially, the single most important peat forming plant genus, Sphagnum, depends heavily on surface wetness for its primary production. Changes in rainfall patterns are expected to affect surface wetness, but how this transient rewetting affects net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) remains unknown. This study explores how the timing and characteristics of rain events during photosynthetic active periods, that is daytime, affect peatland NEE and whether rain event associated changes in environmental conditions modify this response (e.g. water table, radiation, vapour pressure deficit, temperature).
Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Estimates for Drought and Flood Monitoring in Mozambique
Tote, C. ; Patricio, D. ; Boogaard, H.L. ; Wijngaart, R. van der; Tarnavsky, E. ; Funk, C. - \ 2015
Remote Sensing 7 (2015)2. - ISSN 2072-4292 - p. 1758 - 1776.
west-africa - precipitation - validation - products - microwave - climate - dataset - gages - sahel - trmm
Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET) Rainfall Estimate (RFE) v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)) are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012). This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.
Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety
Liu, C. ; Hofstra, N. ; Leemans, R. - \ 2015
Food Research International 68 (2015). - ISSN 0963-9969 - p. 31 - 40.
stochastic weather generator - multimodel ensemble - change projections - model - precipitation - cmip5 - uncertainty - temperature - calibration - growth
Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and illustrates how this tool can be used with impact models, such as bacterial and mycotoxin growth and pesticide models. As an example, coarse gridded data from two global climate models (GCMs), HadGEM2-ES and CCSM4, are selected and downscaled using the “Delta method” with quantile-quantile correction for Ukkel, Belgium. Observational daily temperature and precipitation data from 1981 to 2000 are used as a reference for this downscaling. Data are provided for four future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2031–2050 and 2081–2100. These RCPs are radiative forcing scenarios for which future climate conditions are projected. The climate projections for these RCPs show that both temperature and precipitation will increase towards the end of the century in Ukkel. The climate change data are then used with Ratkowsky's bacterial growth model to illustrate how projected climate data can be used for projecting bacterial growth in the future. In this example, the growth rate of Lactobacillus plantarum in Ukkel is projected to increase in the future and the number of days that the bacteria are able to grow is also projected to increase. This example shows that this downscaling method can be applied to assess future food safety. However, we only used two GCMs. To obtain a more realistic uncertainty range, using many different GCM output datasets and working directly with climate modellers is recommended. Our approach helps food safety researchers to perform their own climate change scenario analysis. The actual algorithm of the downscaling method and its detailed manual is available in the supplementary material.
Time-dependent effects of climate and drought on tree growth in a Neotropical dry forest: Short-term tolerance vs. long-term sensitivity
Mendivelso, H.A. ; Camarero, J.J. ; Gutierrez, E. ; Zuidema, P. - \ 2014
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 188 (2014). - ISSN 0168-1923 - p. 13 - 23.
tropical forests - ring chronologies - rain-forest - santa-cruz - water-use - phenology - patterns - bolivia - precipitation - coordination
We analyzed the effects of climate and drought on radial growth using dendrochronology in seven deciduous tree species coexisting in a Bolivian tropical dry forest subjected to seasonal drought. Precipitation, temperature and a multiscalar drought index were related to tree-ring width data at different time-scales (from one month to 42 years). Precipitation affected positively tree growth in all species, mainly during the wet season, while temperature affected it negatively in five species. Tree growth responses to precipitation and temperature were species-specific and peaked at short-time scales, specifically from one to nine months. At inter-annual scales tree growth always responded positively to less dry conditions at short-time scales, particularly from two to seven months, and also at long-time scales from six to 30 years. Tree growth was mainly sensitive to multi-annual droughts and such sensitivity differed among species. Our findings suggest that tree species of the studied tropical dry forest are predominantly sensitive in terms of growth reduction to long-lasting droughts. This time-dependency of growth responses to drought should be explicitly considered as an additional constraint of the community dynamics in evaluations of the future responses of tropical dry forests to climate warming. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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