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Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Governance of wicked climate adaptation problems
Termeer, C.J.A.M. ; Dewulf, A. ; Breeman, G.E. - \ 2013
In: Climate Change Governance / Knieling, J., Filho, W.L., Berlin : Springer (Climate change management ) - ISBN 9783642298301 - p. 27 - 39.
klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - probleemanalyse - governance - climatic change - climate adaptation - problem analysis
Climate change adaptation has been called a “wicked problem par excellence.” Wicked problems are hard to define because ‘the formulation of the problem is the problem; they are considered a symptom of another problem; they are highly resistant to solutions and extremely interconnected with other problems. Climate change problems are even more complex because they lack a well-structured policy domain, and knowledge about climate change is uncertain and contested. Given the wicked characteristics of the climate issue and its particular challenges, the question is which theories are useful starting points for the governance of climate adaptation? The chapter distinguishes between theories and concepts that focus on reflexivity, on resilience, on responsiveness and on revitalisation. Instead of integrating these theories in one overarching governance approach, the chapter suggests an approach of theoretical multiplicity. It proposes that exploiting the variety of concepts and strategies based on the different theories can increase the governance capacity to deal with climate change. Finally, it addresses the moral dimension of wicked problems, which suggests that it is unacceptable to treat a wicked problem as though it were a tame one. Governance scholars nowadays risk raising expectations far beyond their ability to deliver, and thus enhance confusions over whether wicked problems are in fact tame ones.
Vooruit met de geit
Bremmer, B. ; Bos, A.P. ; Schuiling, H.J. ; Ferwerda-van Zonneveld, R.T. - \ 2012
Lelystad : Wageningen UR Livestock Research (Rapport / Wageningen UR Livestock Research 557) - 34
geitenhouderij - dierenwelzijn - geiten - duurzame veehouderij - probleemanalyse - probleemoplossing - dierlijke productie - diergezondheid - goat keeping - animal welfare - goats - sustainable animal husbandry - problem analysis - problem solving - animal production - animal health
The report provides insight into the problems in and around Dutch goat husbandry.
Adviezen voor daglicht in varkensstallen
Winkel, A. ; Bokma, S. - \ 2011
V-focus 8 (2011)3. - ISSN 1574-1575 - p. 36 - 37.
varkenshouderij - varkensstallen - daglicht - dierenwelzijn - energiebesparing - probleemanalyse - probleemoplossing - pig farming - pig housing - daylight - animal welfare - energy saving - problem analysis - problem solving
Er is een toenemende vraag vanuit markt en maatschappij naar daglicht in stallen. Ervaringen met daglichttoetreding in varkensstallen zijn niet altijd positief. In opdracht van het Productschap Vee en Vlees organiseerde Wageningen UR Livestock een rondetafelgesprek: wat zijn de knelpunten en waar liggen de oplossingen?
The voice of the visual : visual learning strategies for problem analysis, social dialogue and mediated participation
Witteveen, L.M. - \ 2009
University. Promotor(en): Cees Leeuwis, co-promotor(en): B. Enserink. - [S.l. : S.n. - ISBN 9789085854623 - 183
leertheorie - leren - methodologie - perceptie - probleemanalyse - learning theory - learning - methodology - perception - problem analysis
The changing needs for innovative learning strategies in the life sciences results from the growing complexity of societal issues. Nowadays, complex societal issues are also called ‘wicked problems.’ Wicked problems are problems that do not have one single solution that is right or wrong, good or bad or true or false. These are problems in which many stakeholders are involved, all of them framing the problems and issues in a different way. Reflecting on the consequent changing role of scientists and the way they need to be trained, it is realized that innovative learning strategies are needed to enhance problem analysis.
This PhD project explored visual learning strategies for problem analysis. In exploring these strategies, the project emphasized dialogue and participation by social actors, (future) practitioners and decision makers involved in wicked problem settings. The project had the twofold aim of exploring the potential of visual learning and defining the design and production of visual learning strategies. The project materialized in a design and research perspective on the production and use of visual learning strategies. The design track resulted in the development of the Visual Problem Appraisal (VPA) and Embedded Filming strategies. At the start of the project these strategies were used in settings of international master course work and adult education. As the project advanced, the attention also focused on using the strategies in the public domain, with a focus on public participation by silenced or overlooked social actors.
The VPA design developed with the production and use of the ‘VPA Kerala’s Coast’ (2003 – 2008) and the ‘VPA AIDS & Rural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa’ (2005-2009). Core of the VPA design are filmed stakeholder narratives and a well elaborated methodological approach that creates a learning space where the VPA user meets with these stakeholders as part of a decision making process. The wicked problems addressed in these VPAs focus on integrated coastal zone management in Kerala, India, and on AIDS and rural development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Embedded Filming, designed and produced between 2003 and 2007, also focuses on HIV/AIDS and rural development professionalism in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Embedded Filming involves participation in the production phase by combining action research with a learning process. The film crew, facilitators and participants form an integrated whole.
The shared focus of VPA and Embedded Filming is reflected in similarities in the general production and use. The filming process of both strategies focuses on social actors, their perspectives and reflections on reality. This consideration for multiple realities and societal complexity in the films is further underlined in the absence of a voice over or otherwise a steering ‘outsider.’ Although VPA and Embedded Filming have strong similarities, they are also characterized by differences. VPA filming activities are not embedded in a wider activity as is the case for Embedded Filming. Editing in Embedded Filming differs from the editing style of the VPA interviews as it adheres more to conventional documentary editing. The distinctive visual language of each film style was highlighted in the found footage experiment. This experiment showed that the footage of the Embedded Filming series could not be used for the production of VPA narratives because of the film styles not being congruent.
The visual learning strategies have been used in an array of situations and with a variety of audiences. They have shown the ability to bring complex realities and a diversity of stakeholders together in spaces of learning, reflection and change. The experiences obtained with Visual Problem Appraisal and Embedded Filming provided the empirical evidence that it is possible to design, produce and use specific visual learning strategies to achieve strategic learning objectives that enhance complex competences for action and change. Research on these experiences is documented in the various chapters of this dissertation.
The first chapter provides the background to the study and elaborates on the research design. The second chapter gives a broad introduction to the design, production and use of the ‘VPA Kerala’s Coast.’ It describes the educational design of VPA and the operationalisation during the filming process in Kerala, India. The analysis of the production experiences led to a series of workshops to research the impact of the VPA in the public domain. The evaluation of these workshops provided indications for social learning and stakeholder dialogue.
The third chapter elaborates on the effects of the VPA in higher professional education. The study is based on experiences with the ‘VPA Kerala’s Coast,’ lectured in 2007/08 and 2008/09. The VPA design deliberately incorporates a rich variety of instruction strategies to anticipate the diverse learning styles of students in the international and intercultural classroom with a prominent role for visual learning. Students are confronted with a variety of learning activities that provides a challenging environment. They are immersed in the reality of complex multi stakeholder settings and they are stimulated to learn about wicked problems that are not easy to solve. Facilitator’s instructions and precise feedback options stimulate students to reflect on their work and that of their peers. It makes students almost immediately aware of the effects of their actions and the way they learn. The assessment presented indicates that the VPA strategy is effective as a strong and attractive simulation. The created safe space provides students an opportunity to learn from their interaction with un-familiar stakeholders and the VPA enhances critical reflection on learning procedures and patterns. Besides elaborating on the impact in education the chapter also provides insight in the design process of this learning strategy.
The fourth chapter presents the process of producing and testing the ‘VPA Kerala’s Coast’ as a complex and intriguing multidisciplinary and multicultural project. We wondered what made the project a success. Framing the project as a space of intercultural communication gave guidance to the questions that articulated our search to understand the process we had been immersed in. In this chapter the events are described and critical incidents are analyzed that occurred during the production and the use of the VPA. The outcome leads to valuable recommendations for international and intercultural teams working on similar production and research projects.
The fifth chapter reports on Embedded Filming. The filming and the films of a series of workshops and courses for Rural Development Professionals in Ghana, India, Tanzania and Zambia are analyzed as tools for learning and social change for different audiences. Analyzing the production and consumption processes shows the interconnectedness of the filming and learning during the courses. The results indicate that the films contribute to improved rural development professionalism in the context of HIV/AIDS.
Chapter six highlights the potential of ‘mediated participation’ as compared to live participation, especially regarding the inclusion of vulnerable and distanced stakeholders. Mediated participation was explored by studying the production and use of the ‘VPA AIDS & Rural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa’ in workshops in Congo DRC, Ghana, Tanzania, the Netherlands and Zambia. The qualitative assessment was based on production experiences, evaluations of participants, and debriefings of workshops. The results indicate that mediated participation is not just a second-best option to live participation. Mediated participation as operationalized in VPA-methodology offers an alternative to learning in face-to-face interactions. The concept of mediated participation that resulted from the study is perceived as a promising concept. This term is used to contrast live presence of silenced and overlooked stakeholders in processes of public participation with participation or representation of these stakeholders’ concerns through the use of media (film). Mediated participation refers in this study to the filmed narrative (or mediated presence) of direct stakeholders who otherwise wouldn’t be present in public policy making processes. Mediated participation enhances social inclusion and equity in problem analysis and decision making by other means than through live participation.
The experiences in this study with the design, production and use of VPA and Embedded Filming indicate the relevancy of designing and producing specific visual learning strategies in the context of wicked problems in multi stakeholder settings and sustainable development. It was learned that a specific visual learning strategy requires a particular film style or visual language. It is not film in general that defines the outcome of a learning process; it is the conceptual design, grounded in specific learning and film theories and film making expertise that lays foundations for the process that can be induced by the film. The discussed visual learning strategies overcome physical, cultural and social barriers between vulnerable stakeholders and decision makers. The mediated encounters with ‘the Other’ and ‘meeting’ other realities in social dialogues turned out to contribute to problem analysis. Designing, producing and using visual learning strategies requires due attention, expertise and resources.

Probleemoplossing door integratie van verkeerskunde en recreatiekunde
Loon, M. van; Tuunter, E. ; Jaarsma, C.F. ; Webster, M.J. - \ 2008
Groen : vakblad voor groen in stad en landschap 64 (2008)4. - ISSN 0166-3534 - p. 18 - 22.
recreatiegebieden - recreatievoorzieningen - verkeersgeleiding - landgebruiksplanning - probleemanalyse - amenity and recreation areas - recreational facilities - controlled traffic - land use planning - problem analysis
De groene omgeving speelt een steeds belangrijkere rol in de vrijetijdsbesteding van Nederlanders. Recreëren in het landelijk gebied wordt steeds geliefder. Door deze toenemende vraag ontstaan er grotere bezoekerstromen waarbij de bereikbaarheid van het landelijk gebied in het gedrang komt. De tot nu toe gescheiden werelden van recreatie en verkeer kunnen niet langer los van elkaar gezien worden. Hoe kunnen de verkeers- en recreatiesector samen zorgen voor een bereikbaar, beleefbaar en verkeersveilig landelijk gebied? Een verslag van onderzoek van Stichting Recreatie en Wageningen Universiteit
Spatial relations among coastal bird populations: searching for new breeding habitats in intensively used estuaries
Schippers, Peter - \ 2008
birds - sea birds - coastal areas - breeding places - habitats - nature conservation - problem analysis
Praktijknetwerken onkruidbestrijding verhardingen
Kempenaar, C. ; Davies, J.A.R. ; Dijk, C.J. van; Hermans, G. ; Verstegen, H.A.G. ; Vlaming, E.A.C. ; Vlaswinkel, M.E.T. ; Weide, R.Y. van der; Wijnker, J.P.M. ; Wilms, J.A.M. ; Zeeland, M.G. van - \ 2008
onkruiden - onkruidbestrijding - bestrijdingsmethoden - duurzaamheid (sustainability) - probleemanalyse - informatieverspreiding - onderzoek - netwerken - weeds - weed control - control methods - sustainability - problem analysis - diffusion of information - research - networks
Onkruidbestrijding op verhardingen kent de laatste tijd vele nieuwe ontwikkelingen. Wageningen UR neemt het initiatief om met probleemhebbers, beheerders en toepassers in zogenaamde praktijknetwerken nieuwe kennis of inzichten te verspreiden, waar nodig kennis verder te ontwikkelen en implementatie van duurzame methoden te stimuleren. Perspectiefvolle systemen als Barometer Duurzaam Terreinbeheer en OVO-Best practice worden op praktijkniveau geoptimaliseerd, gepromoot en gemonitord
Nota: referenties en maatlatten voor macrobenthos van overgangs- en kustwateren: aanvullende informatie t.b.v. RWS-rapportage
Ysebaert, T. - \ 2007
Yerseke : IMARES (Rapport / Wageningen IMARES C110/07) - 24
visserij - gegevens verzamelen - kustwateren - probleemanalyse - probleemoplossing - historische ecologie - macrofauna - kaderrichtlijn water - waddenzee - oosterschelde - westerschelde - eems-dollard - fisheries - data collection - coastal water - problem analysis - problem solving - historical ecology - water framework directive - wadden sea - eastern scheldt - western scheldt
Naar aanleiding van de afronding van de referenties en maatlatten voor overgangs- en kustwateren ten behoeve van de Kaderrichtlijn Water (KRW) is extra informatie nodig betreffende enkele macrofauna referenties en (deel)maatlatten. Onder de vorm van een aantal actiepunten heeft RWS IMARES de opdracht gegeven deze extra informatie te verzamelen in een korte nota. Per waterlichaam worden hieronder de verschillende actiepunten behandeld.
Ongerief bij rundvee, varkens, pluimvee, nertsen en paarden : inventarisatie en prioritering en mogelijke oplossingsrichtingen
Leenstra, F.R. ; Visser, E.K. ; Ruis, M.A.W. ; Greef, K.H. de; Bos, A.P. ; Dixhoorn, I.D.E. van; Hopster, H. - \ 2007
Lelystad : Animal Sciences Group (Rapport / Animal Sciences Group 71) - 80
dierenwelzijn - dierhouderij - probleemanalyse - rundvee - paarden - varkens - nerts - pluimvee - inventarisaties - probleemoplossing - intensieve veehouderij - diergezondheid - animal welfare - animal husbandry - problem analysis - cattle - horses - pigs - mink - poultry - inventories - problem solving - intensive livestock farming - animal health
Najaar 2007 biedt LNV een Nota Dierenwelzijn aan aan de Tweede Kamer. In dit rapport worden daarvoor een aantal bouwstenen op het terrein van landbouwhuisdieren en paarden aangereikt, te weten: 1) Beschouwing over overeenkomsten en verschillen in perceptie van dierenwelzijn vanuit een maatschappelijke en een dierwetenschappelijke invalshoek. 2) Inventarisatie van de grootste welzijnsknelpunten, nadere prioritering van ongerief bij runderen, varkens, pluimvee, nertsen en paarden en mogelijke oplossingsrichtingen. 3) Een analyse hoe bij runderen, varkens en pluimvee ingrepen als onthoornen, castreren, staarten couperen en snavelkappen overbodig of minder 'ingrijpend' gemaakt kunnen worden. 4) Een plan voor integraal ontwerpen voor die sectoren waar dat het meest noodzakelijk is.
A window of opportunities : the contributions of land use modelling to societal learning
Sterk, B. - \ 2007
University. Promotor(en): Cees Leeuwis, co-promotor(en): Martin van Ittersum. - [S.l.] : S.n. - ISBN 9789085047667 - 136
land use - planning - learning - society - farming systems - sustainability - models - decision making - farm enterprises - problem analysis - problem solving - netherlands - uruguay - modeling - sustainable land use - landgebruik - leren - samenleving - bedrijfssystemen - duurzaamheid (sustainability) - modellen - besluitvorming - landbouwondernemingen - probleemanalyse - probleemoplossing - nederland - modelleren - duurzaam bodemgebruik
It has been argued that the management of land, whether at the field, farm or regional scale, can benefit from computer-based land use system analysis. As a result, a large number of computer-based models and tools have been produced over the past decades with the aim of providing support to policy and management. Though there is still optimism about the potential of land use modelling to contribute to societal problem solving, a number of scholars perceive the impact as too limited. Others, reporting model use outside the scientific sphere, do not explicitly analyze this use for its impact, and the reasons for this impact. Against this background, this thesis investigates the contribution of land use models to learning for societal problem solving, i.e., learning of farm managers and/or land use planners at local, regional, national or international level, to solve a land use related problem. The key question that the study seeks to answer is: How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling enhance learning in the context of societal problem solving? What we found were indeed proofs of learning through modelling. The learning took the form of a new perspective on a land use system, frequently in combination with a better understanding of the position of other stakeholders, resulting in adapted problem definitions, a changed solution space and/or the formation of new coalitions to tackle a particular land use related problem. Models were found to contribute not only to improving understanding (heuristic role) but also to agenda-setting (symbolic role) and the creation of communities (relational role). Time and again it appeared not so much ‘critical success factors’ that proved helpful to understand the contribution of modelling to societal change, but rather features of a social context and/or problem solving process in place, such as actors‘ aspirations, intentions, and perceptions of their own abilities, social and institutional relations. Consequently, instead of rather static and distinct factors, this thesis work suggests that we need to anticipate the relatively fluid and fuzzy features of social contexts and problem solving processes to harness land use modelling for societal learning. What do the findings imply for those who wish to pursue the use of science-based land use models to contribute to societal problem solving? First of all, the thesis work demonstrates that the contributions of land use models to societal problem solving represent ‘a window of opportunities’. The contributions are not limited to learning about a land use system but are more diverse and extend to learning about the views, norms and values of other actors, mediation of conflicts between stakeholders and community-building when the organization of stakeholders is desirable for coping with a problem. Furthermore, our research suggests that in designing a modelling strategy, equal attention needs to be paid to the requirements for model development, and the embedding of the work in a given/intended societal context. Depending on the background of the research team, such modelling strategy may encompass: arranging stepping stones, e.g., to let a team member establish and maintain a social network of possible users, or to establish contacts with persons and/or organizations that can become stepping stones. At the more executive level, suitable activities are: an exploration of possible and desired roles (i.e. heuristic, relational, symbolic) of the model in the given and/or intended societal context and to assess appropriate methods to shape participation in model development in line with the envisioned roles.
Computermodel moet botrytis in gerbera helpen voorkomen
Visser, P.H.B. de; Köhl, J. ; Wubben, J.P. - \ 2006
Vakblad voor de Bloemisterij 2006 (2006)50. - ISSN 0042-2223 - p. 54 - 55.
snijbloemen - plantenziekteverwekkende schimmels - botrytis - probleemanalyse - computer software - klimaatregeling - plantenziekten - energiebesparing - cut flowers - plant pathogenic fungi - problem analysis - air conditioning - plant diseases - energy saving
Botrytis in gerbera is een van de grootste problemen. Onder de naam Parapluplan Botrytis is onderzoek gestart om de schimmelziekte aan te pakken. Er wordt een computermodel ontwikkeld om het klimaat beter te kunnen sturen om besmetting te voorkomen en ook energie te besparen
Bereikbaarheid en recreatie: dilemma’s in het landelijk gebied
Jaarsma, Rinus - \ 2006
rural tourism - infrastructure - traffic patterns - problem analysis - netherlands - leisure policy - rural planning - entrepreneurship
Innovatienetwerk denkt mee over botrytis en energie in gerbera
Jagers op Akkerhuis, F. - \ 2005
Vakblad voor de Bloemisterij 60 (2005)45. - ISSN 0042-2223 - p. 48 - 49.
gerbera - botrytis - plantenziekteverwekkende schimmels - technische hulpverlening - professionele dienstverlening - samenwerking - probleemanalyse - glastuinbouw - energiebesparing - plant pathogenic fungi - technical aid - professional services - cooperation - problem analysis - greenhouse horticulture - energy saving
Met behulp van een innovatienetwerk wordt het ketenbrede probleem van botrytis in gerbera aangepakt. Dit probleem hangt nauw samen met het energieverbruik in gerbera. Het netwerk heeft uiteindelijk geleid tot een onderzoeksplan dat gesubsidieerd wordt door het Productschap Tuinbouw
Geïntegreerde benadering van allergieproblematiek noodzakelijk
Wichers, H.J. - \ 2004
Voedingsmiddelentechnologie 37 (2004)7. - ISSN 0042-7934 - p. 28 - 29.
allergieën - overgevoeligheid - preventie - probleemanalyse - voedselindustrie - levensstijl - voedingsgedrag - sociale situatie - wetenschappelijk onderzoek - allergies - hypersensitivity - prevention - problem analysis - food industry - lifestyle - feeding behaviour - social situation - scientific research
Wat moet in de komende jaren de strategie zijn om allergie zo veel mogelijk te voorkomen of beheersbaar te maken en de symptomen te reduceren? Die vraag stond centraal tijdens een internationale conferentie over preventie van allergie georganiseerd door het Allergie Consortium Wageningen. Conclusie was dat de onderzoekers en productontwikkelaars over de grenzen van hun disciplines heen zullen moeten kijken om tot een geïntegreerde benadering van de allergieproblematiek te komen
Zadoks, J.C. - \ 2001
Gewasbescherming 32 (2001). - ISSN 0166-6495 - p. 74 - 75.
plantenziektekunde - innovaties - wetenschappers - probleemanalyse - biotechnologie - plant pathology - innovations - biotechnology - scientists - problem analysis
Nieuwe technologie schept nieuwe mogelijkheden en nieuwe problemen. Biotechnologische innovaties in de gewasbescherming zijn onderhevig aan "creatieve en biologische afbraak", aldus J.C. Zadoks
Grondmarkt landelijk gebied : knelpunten, oplossingsrichtingen en kennisleemtes
Savornin Lohman, A.F. de; Luijt, J. ; Poole, M.J. Le - \ 2000
Den Haag : LEI - ISBN 9789052426143 - 40
grondmarkten - grondprijzen - platteland - plattelandseconomie - kennis - probleemanalyse - probleemoplossing - land markets - land prices - rural areas - rural economy - knowledge - problem analysis - problem solving
Milieudoelstellingen en landbouw-milieubeleid in Europa; achtergrondstudie voor de verkenning hulpstoffen en energie in landbouwsystemen in 2015
Diederen, P.J.M. ; Silvis, H.J. - \ 1998
Den Haag : NRLO - ISBN 9789050590488 - 42
landbouw - milieubescherming - milieubeheer - milieu - kwaliteit - overheidsbeleid - milieubeleid - milieuwetgeving - luchtverontreiniging - bodemverontreiniging - waterverontreiniging - hulpbronnen - hulpbronnengebruik - europa - consumptie - ruwe grondstoffen - materialenbalans - energiebeleid - energie - economie - probleemanalyse - tuinbouw - milieuwetenschappen - toekomst - Nederland - agriculture - environmental protection - environmental management - environment - quality - government policy - environmental policy - environmental legislation - air pollution - soil pollution - water pollution - resources - resource utilization - europe - consumption - raw materials - material balance - energy policy - energy - economics - problem analysis - horticulture - environmental sciences - future - Netherlands
Levering van warmte aan glastuinbouwbedrijven; Warmte/kracht-contracten en bedrijfseconomische aspecten
Verhoeven, A.T.M. ; Velden, N.J.A. van der; Verhaegh, A.P. - \ 1996
Den Haag : LEI-DLO (Mededeling / Landbouw-Economisch Instituut (LEI-DLO) 563) - ISBN 9789052423500 - 90
energiebeleid - energie - economie - probleemanalyse - warmte - kracht - warmtepompen - afvalwarmtebenutting - kosten-batenanalyse - kostenanalyse - investering - economische evaluatie - glastuinbouw - energy policy - energy - economics - problem analysis - heat - power - heat pumps - waste heat utilization - cost benefit analysis - cost analysis - investment - economic evaluation - greenhouse horticulture
Integrated economy - energy - environment policy analysis : a case study for the People's Republic of China
Zhang, Z. - \ 1996
Agricultural University. Promotor(en): H. Folmer; P. van Beek. - Wageningen : Zhang - 328
kooldioxide - economie - klimaatverandering - paleoklimatologie - energiebeleid - energie - probleemanalyse - luchtverontreiniging - milieu - schade - milieueffect - energiebronnen - elektrotechniek - elektrische apparatuur - elektriciteit - elektrificatie - wiskundige modellen - econometrische modellen - econometrie - theorie - China - carbon dioxide - economics - climatic change - palaeoclimatology - energy policy - energy - problem analysis - air pollution - environment - damage - environmental impact - energy sources - electrical engineering - electrical equipment - electricity - electrification - mathematical models - econometric models - econometrics - theory
<br/>This study is the first systematic and comprehensive attempt to deal with the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy in the light of the economics of climate change, of which this dissertation is the results. It consists of nine chapters. After a brief introduction, Chapter 2 discusses some economic aspects of climate change. This in turn will serve as a good guide to pursuing the case study for CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions in China. Chapter 3 analyses the Chinese energy system in the CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> context. Chapter 4 discusses alternative economic modelling approaches to cost estimates for limiting CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions. The purpose is to show the rationale for choosing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach for the macroeconomic analysis of CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emission limits and linking such a CGE model of the Chinese economy with a power planning model of China's electricity sector. Chapter 5 presents a time-recursive dynamic CGE model of the Chinese economy. Chapter 6 deals with some essential work done for empirical application of the CGE model. Chapter 7 analyses the economywide impacts of alternative carbon limits for China through counterfactual policy simulations, while Chapter 8 analyses the impacts of compliance with CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> limits in China's power industry by means of a technology- oriented dynamic optimization model for power system expansion planning. Finally, Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this study and points out some areas where there is a need for further methodological and empirical work to enrich the policy relevance of the study.<p><strong>Analysis of the Chinese energy system: implications for future CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions</strong><p>At present China contributes 11% of global CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions. This means that China ranks second if the Soviet emissions are distributed over the new independent republics. Given the global characteristics of climate change and China's potential importance as a source Of CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions, advocates of controlling CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions call for substantial efforts in China. However, the Chinese authorities have argued that China cannot be expected to make a significant contribution to the carbon emission problem unless China receives substantial international aid for this purpose. This contrasts sharply with the wishes of proponents of controlling CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions. Chapter 3 is devoted to explaining this difference in opinion by examining China's energy resources and their development, the Chinese energy consumption patterns, the achievements and remaining problems of electricity generation in China, China's energy conservation in an international perspective, historical CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions in China, and environmental challenges for the Chinese energy system. At the same time, it sheds light on the implications for China's future CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions.<p>From examining these aspects, it has become clear that, driven by the threat of further degradation of the environment, great pressure on the severely congested railways, and the harmful economic effects of energy shortages, China is already determined to make great efforts towards energy conservation and enhanced energy efficiency in general, and towards using coal much more efficiently in particular. A number of policy measures, which have been and will continue to be implemented, have been outlined. They are the so-called 'noregrets' measures in the sense that they are taken without considering the greenhouse effect. These measures include increase in proportion of raw coal washed; retrofitting and replacement of small inefficient industrial boilers; substituting direct burning of coal by electricity through development of largesize, high-temperature and high-pressure efficient coal-fired power plants; speeding up hydropower exploitation; popularizing domestic use of coal briquette; increased penetration of town gas into urban households; expanding district heating systems; and relaxing restrictions on energy trade. Moreover, success in the implementation of these measures will largely depend on the extent to which a reform of China's energy pricing will be carried out. With respect to reducing CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions, because the 'regrets' policies are often costly, 'getting prices right' and implementing these 'no-regrets' actions above should have priority over the imposition of a carbon tax. This suggests that the implementation of these measures will be accelerated if curbing global CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions requires special action on China's part.<p>While China makes such drastic efforts, fundamental reform of aid and loan practices also needs to be undertaken in the industrialized countries, so that bilateral and multilateral assistance be channelled less towards expanding energy supplies and more towards promoting energy efficiency improvements, thus reducing CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions. Related to this, <em>joint implementation</em> projects for increased energy efficiency should be encouraged.<p><strong>Macroeconomic analysis of CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emission limits for China</strong><p>Given that China is the world's most populous country and largest coal producer and consumer, its coal-dominated energy structure and carbon-intensive economy, and that carbon dioxide is the greatest contributor to global warming, its economic development and the resulting CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions are of great concern. Chapter 4 argues that a CGE approach is generally considered an appropriate tool for analysing the economic impacts of limiting CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions.<p>For this purpose, a time-recursive dynamic CGE model of the Chinese economy has been developed. This model includes ten production sectors, distinguishes four energy inputs, and is made up of nine blocks. Moreover, the CGE model highlights the relationships between economic activity, energy consumption and CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions. Thus, the model makes it possible to analyse the Chinese economy-energy-environment system interactions simultaneously, at both sectoral and macroeconomic levels. The model is also able to calculate the welfare impacts of carbon abatement policies. Furthermore, the CGE model incorporates an explicit tax system. This makes it suitable for estimating the 'double dividend' from the imposition of a carbon tax that is incorporated as a cost-effective means of limiting CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions. Finally, the model is solved directly with a numerical solution technique included in GAMS.<p>Using this CGE model, a baseline scenario for the Chinese economy has first been developed under a set of assumptions about the exogenous variables. Counterfactual policy simulations have then been carried out to compute the macroeconomic implications of two less restrictive scenarios, under which China's CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions in 2010 will be cut by 20% and 30% respectively relative to the baseline, and to determine the efficiency improvement of four indirect tax offset scenarios relative to the tax retention scenarios. Finally, a comparison with other studies for China has been made. The following conclusions can be drawn.<p>First, a rapid growth of the Chinese economy will take place until the year 2010. Consequently, this will lead to increased energy consumption and hence CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions, despite substantial energy efficiency improvement. Second, large reductions in carbon emissions can only be achieved by ever-larger increases in carbon taxes and hence prices of fossil fuels. Third, the associated GNP and welfare losses tend to rise more sharply as the degree of the carbon emission reduction increases. Fourth, although aggregate gross production tends to decrease at an increasing rate as the carbon dioxide emission target becomes more stringent, changes in gross production vary significantly among sectors in both absolute and relative terms. This suggests that special attention should be paid to the sectoral implications when designing a domestic carbon tax. Fifth, although a change in level and structure of economic activity and a change in direct energy consumption by households play a role in reducing total energy consumption, lower energy input coefficients contribute to the bulk of energy reduction and hence CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions. Sixth, the negative impacts of carbon taxes on GNP and welfare would be reduced if the carbon tax revenues were used to offset reductions in indirect taxes. Moreover, it would become more worthwhile to lower indirect taxes as the target of CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions becomes more stringent. Seventh, our estimates of the reduction in GNP growth are higher than those by GLOBAL 2100 and GREEN in order to achieve the same reductions in CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions relative to the baseline. Moreover, the carbon taxes required in China are much lower than those for both the industrialized countries and the world average. This suggests that the <em>joint implementation</em> mechanism as a preliminary step towards a global regime of tradeable carbon permits should be considered a means of reducing global CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions effectively.<p><strong>Cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options in China's electricity sector</strong><p>Chapter 8 attempts to shed light on technological aspects of carbon abatement in China's power industry and is thus devoted to satisfying electricity planning requirements. To that end, a technology-oriented optimization model for power system expansion planning has been developed. This model has been adapted from the MARKAL model. It chooses the minimization of discounted cost over the entire planning horizon as its objective function and incorporates a number of power- related constraints adopted by MARKAL. In the power planning model, 15 types of power plants are represented in terms of their technical, economic and environmental parameters. The model allows for substitution from highcarbon fossil fuels and technologies towards low-carbon and carbon-free counterparts and for interactions between periods to cope with carbon limits.<p>Using the power planning model, a comparison of the 15 types of power plants considered has been made in terms of both the levelized cost of generation and the marginal Cost Of CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> reduction at a 10% discount rate. Driven by the baseline electricity demands that are estimated by the CGE model, the model has then been used to develop a baseline scenario for China's electricity supply and to analyse the impacts of compliance with CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> limits in the power industry. The main findings are as follows.<p>First, large coal-fired plants and hydroelectric plants should be given priority in future electricity planning. Thus, efforts should be directed towards expanding domestic capacity for manufacturing large units, mobilizing the necessary large investment resources, and towards resolving the disappointing performance of domestically-produced large units.<p>Second, a rapid growth of China's power industry will take place until the year 2010. Accordingly, capital investment in the industry as a share of GNP is calculated to go up from the current level. Given that coal-fired power plants still predominate, the amount of coal consumed for electricity generation accordingly grows rapidly, thus increasing its share in total coal consumption. This will lead to an increase in CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions within the power sector itself, although the decreasing direct use of coal will alleviate the environmental impacts of coal use as a whole. Moreover, it has been shown that more large units are expected to be put into operation during the period under consideration compared with the current composition of plants. This will bring the average gross coal consumption of coal- fired plants down. Besides, the calculations show that nuclear power begins to make a useful contribution to China's electricity supply, although there is little prospect of dramatic increases until the year 2010.<p>Third, compliance with carbon limits in the electricity sector requires accelerated expansion of hydroelectric power and nuclear power. This finding is in line with the government investment priority, which has been set with aims to reduce pressure on transportation and air pollution, but without considering the greenhouse effect. This suggests that the development of hydroelectric power and nuclear power needs to be accelerated in China if curbing CO <sub><font size="-2">2</font></sub> emissions is taken into account. This provides a precondition for developing <em>joint implementation</em> projects in China's electricity sector. In practice, however, to make these projects operational will depend on the far-reaching negotiations for <em>joint implementation</em> mechanism.
Groen licht voor duurzame energie
Schaafsma, T.J. - \ 1995
Wageningen : Landbouwuniversiteit Wageningen - 25
energie - efficiëntie - energiegebruik - brandstofverbruik - duurzaamheid (sustainability) - natuurlijke hulpbronnen - hulpbronnengebruik - bescherming - herstel - energiebeleid - economie - probleemanalyse - hogere agrarische scholen - universiteiten - colleges (hoorcolleges) - nederland - veluwe - gelderland - openbare redes - energy - efficiency - energy consumption - fuel consumption - sustainability - natural resources - resource utilization - protection - rehabilitation - energy policy - economics - problem analysis - agricultural colleges - universities - lectures - netherlands - public speeches
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