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Effect of reducing the area under transport ban on transmission risk and piglet surplus during a CSF epidemic in the Netherlands
Hagenaars, T.H.J. ; Bergevoet, R.H.M. ; Bontje, D.M. ; Nodelijk, G. ; Backer, J.A. ; Asseldonk, M.A.P.M. van; Roermund, H.J.W. van - \ 2014
Lelystad/Wageningen : CVI/LEI (Report number CVI: 14/CVI0076 )
biggen - varkenspest - veevervoer - ziekteoverdracht - risicofactoren - dierenwelzijn - diergezondheid - varkenshouderij - veehouderij - piglets - swine fever - transport of animals - disease transmission - risk factors - animal welfare - animal health - pig farming - livestock farming
In this report, we investigate the expected effects of reducing the area in which live piglet transports are banned on transmission risk and on the piglet surplus (in the area of the transport ban) during a CSF epidemic in the Netherlands.
Ernstige klinische problemen gedurende meerdere weken op een varkensbedrijf: wat als het KVP was geweest?
Backer, J.A. ; Spierenburg, M. ; Spek, A. van der; Elbers, A.R.W. - \ 2010
Tijdschrift voor Diergeneeskunde 135 (2010)20. - ISSN 0040-7453 - p. 750 - 756.
varkenshouderij - varkens - varkenspest - varkensziekten - virusziekten - diergeneeskunde - pig farming - pigs - swine fever - swine diseases - viral diseases - veterinary science - virus - transmission - netherlands
In the Spring of 2009, a veterinarian reported suspected classical swine fever (CSF) on a multiplier pig farm in the southern part of the Netherlands (close to the Belgian border). Over a 5-week period there had been a number of sick sows and an excessively high percentage of stillborn and preterm piglets. Sick animals were treated with anti-inflammatory drugs and antibiotics, but did not respond as well as anticipated. A visiting specialist team from the Food Safety Authority could not exclude CSF as the cause of the clinical problems and sent blood samples to the reference laboratory in Lelystad for a PCR test on CSF antigen. Fortunately, test results obtained 6 hours later were negative for CSF, and the disease control measures were lifted. It later appeared that porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRSV) might have been responsible for the problems. But what if CSF had caused the clinical problems? A C SF-transmission model was used to simulate CSF outbreaks dependent on the duration of the high-risk period (HRP). As the duration of the HRP increased, there was an exponential growth in the number of pig farms infected during this period. Simulations also showed that with a longer HRP, the virus spread over greater distances from the source herd. It was also investigated whether a possible CSF outbreak could be detected on the basis of an increased mortality and hence increased number of cadavers sent to a rendering plant. However, the calculated mortality incidence was not sensitive enough to serve as an alarm signal. It is recommended that CSF-exclusion diagnostics be used much earlier in similar clinical situations on pig farms.
|Daadkracht en incrementeel leiderschap bij dierziektebestrijding: tien jaar na de varkenspest, hoofdstuk 8
Breeman, G.E. ; Termeer, C.J.A.M. - \ 2009
In: Crisis, Studies over crisis en crisisbeheersing / Muller, E.R., Rosenthal, U., Helsloot, I., van Dijkman, E.R.G., Deventer : Kluwer - ISBN 9789013054699 - p. 205 - 222.
dierziekten - ziektebestrijding - overheidsbeleid - crises - varkenspest - landbouwkundige rampen - risicobeheersing - animal diseases - disease control - government policy - swine fever - agricultural disasters - risk management
Ruim tien jaar na de varkenspest-uitbraak maken de auteurs van dit hoofdstuk de balans op: zijn de beleidsveranderingen nu wel zo groot geweest, vormde de varkenspestcrisis daarin het belangrijke omslagpunt en waren de beleidsveranderingen nu wel zo onverwacht? De vraag naar de impact van een crisis op beleidsverandering wordt onderzocht. Aan de hand van het voorbeeld van de uitbraak van varkenspest analyseren de auteurs welke veranderingen zich voor, tijdens en na de crisis hebben voorgedaan en wat daarvan na tien jaar nog zichtbaar is. Daarbij beargumenteren zij dat analyses vanuit het perspectief van schoksgewijze veranderingen tot andere conclusies kunnen leiden dan analyses vanuit het perspectief van continue veranderingen
|Persistentie van KVP-virus in gevaccineerde dieren: een risico? = Persistence of classical swine fever virus in vaccinated animals: a risk?
Loeffen, W.L.A. - \ 2008
Tijdschrift voor Diergeneeskunde 133 (2008)11. - ISSN 0040-7453 - p. 482 - 484.
landbouwbeleid - classical swine fever virus - varkenspest - varkenshouderij - ziektedistributie - verplichte vaccinatie - merkergenen - merkers - klassieke varkenspest - maatregelen - dierziektepreventie - agricultural policy - swine fever - pig farming - disease distribution - mandatory vaccination - marker genes - markers - classical swine fever - measures - animal disease prevention
Het is dit jaar geleden dat in Nederland het geval van klassieke varkenspest werd gedetecteerd. Het was het laatste geval in een epidemie die ruim een jaar had geduurd. Op dat moment waren we 429 besmette bedrijven verder, waren 12 miljoen varkens vernietigd en was de schade opgelopen tot meer dan 2 miljard euro. Om nog maar te zwijgen over de emotionele en psychotische schade bij vele betrokkenen. Sindsdien zit de angst voor een nieuwe uitbraak er goed in en zijn er veel maatregelen genomen om een herhaling te voorkomen. Een van die maatregelen is het aanpassen van het beleidsdraaiboek en het daarin opnemen van de optie om tijdens een volgende uitbraak eventueel te gaan vaccineren met een markergen. Het CV1 heeft veel onderzoek gedaan naar effectiviteit en veiligheid van een vaccinatiestrategie met markervaccins. Onder andere werd onderzocht wat de kans is dat gevaccineerde dieren na infectie een chronische infectie ontwikkelen en vervolgens langdurig infectieus zijn
Risicogebieden voor verspreiding van Klassieke Varkenspest bij verschillende interventiestrategieën
Gies, T.J.A. ; Boender, G.J. ; Baveco, J.M. ; Nodelijk, G. - \ 2008
varkenspest - varkensziekten - risicoschatting - diergezondheid - ziektedistributie - ruimtelijke variatie - klassieke varkenspest - risicobeheersing - swine fever - swine diseases - risk assessment - animal health - disease distribution - spatial variation - classical swine fever - risk management
Binnen het onderzoeksprogramma 428 "Risicomanagement diergezondheid en voedselveiligheid" van het Ministerie van Landbouw, Natuur en Voedselkwaliteit is onderzoek gedaan naar de verspreidingsrisico's na uitbraak van varkenspest en het effect van verschillende interventiestrategieën op dit risico. In deze poster wordt aandacht besteed aan methodiek, risicogebieden en toepassingsmogelijkheden
Toepassing van uitsluitdiagnostiek voor klassieke varkenspest bij a-specifieke klinische problemen op varkensbedrijven: een enquete onder varkenshouders en dierenartsen.
Elbers, A.R.W. ; Gorgievski-Duijvesteijn, M.J. ; Velden, P.G. ; Loeffen, W.L.A. - \ 2007
Tijdschrift voor Diergeneeskunde 132 (2007)9. - ISSN 0040-7453 - p. 340 - 345.
varkenspest - varkenshouderij - diagnostische technieken - laboratoriumdiagnose - polymerase-kettingreactie - testen - bloedmonsters verzamelen - bloed - klinische aspecten - symptomen - swine fever - pig farming - diagnostic techniques - laboratory diagnosis - polymerase chain reaction - testing - blood specimen collection - blood - clinical aspects - symptoms - epidemic
Outbreaks (of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) occurred in spring 2006 in Germany close to the Dutch border. On 6th April Dutch pig farmers were given the possibility to submit blood samples directly via their veterinary practitioner to the National Reference Laboratory for CSF if their pigs had nonspecific clinical symptoms or if pigs were being treated with antibiotics. The pig farm was not quarantined and was not visited by the veterinary authorities. Over a period of 9 weeks 156 pig farmers submitted whole blood samples via 50 different veterinary practices. All samples tested negative in the PCR test. These pig farmers and veterinary practitioners were asked to respond to a postal questionnaire with questions regarding their experience with this new diagnostic possibility, the distribution of the costs involved, a comparison official notification or use of with other instruments, such as of a leukocyte count test, and their knowledge of clinical signs of CSF 65 pig farmers (42%) and 33 veterinary practices (66%) returned the questionnaire. The main results indicated that pig farmers (72%) would use this type of exclusion diagnostics sooner than that they would approach the veterinary authorities (practitioners: 86%). Moreover the respondents considered the fact that the farm was not quarantined immediately to be an advantage (pig farmers, 79%; practitioners, 88%). 32 percent of the pig farmers were not aware that they were required to submit blood samples if pigs were being treated with antibiotics (practitioners: 11%). The majority of pig farmers and practitioners were not satisfied with the current distribution of the costs involved: in their opinion the costs of the PCR test, the costs of the veterinary practitioner and the costs for shipping the samples to the reference laboratory should be paid out of the Animal Health Fund (50% government and 50% industry) or by the government. If the current distribution of the costs is not changed, a large proportion of the pig farmers indicated that they would not use this form of exclusion diagnostics for CSF in the future. Pig farmers appeared to have a rather limited knowledge of the clinical signs of CSF: 33% of the pig farmers could mention maximally three clinical signs of CSF and 7% could not mention a single clinical sign of CSF and said they were entirely dependent on the practitioners' ability to judge a CSF-suspect situation.
Toelichting bij de RISKANDI kaartenbak
Pérez-Soba, M. ; Nodelijk, G. - \ 2006
Wageningen : Alterra - 32
varkenshouderij - dierziekten - ziektedistributie - varkenspest - ruimtelijke ordening - diergezondheid - dierziektepreventie - beslissingsondersteunende systemen - kennissystemen - risicobeheersing - pig farming - animal diseases - disease distribution - swine fever - physical planning - animal health - animal disease prevention - decision support systems - knowledge systems - risk management
In het onderzoeksprogramma van het Ministerie van LNV is er door Alterra binnen het programma 428 “Risicomanagement diergezondheid en voedselveiligheid” een prototype van een beslissingsondersteunend systeem ontwikkeld, RISKANDI genoemd (Risk animal diseases) in samenwerking met het cluster Kwantitatieve Veterinaire Epidemiologie van de Animal Sciences Group. Met het beslissingondersteunende systeem kan het inzicht vergroot worden in de ruimtelijke problematiek rond de verspreiding van dierziekten in Nederland (voorlopig alleen van varkenspest). Het systeem is ook bedoeld om de communicatie tussen het ministerie van LNV met onderzoeksinstituten te vergroten. Ook is er de ambitie om het systeem uit te breiden voor andere dierziekten
Risk analysis of classical swine fever introduction
Vos, C.J. de - \ 2005
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Ruud Huirne, co-promotor(en): Helmut Saatkamp. - Wageningen : Ponsen & Looijen BV - ISBN 9085042178 - 173
classical swine fever virus - varkenspest - risicoschatting - cost effective analysis - ziektepreventie - risicofactoren - nederland - europese unie - swine fever - risk assessment - cost effectiveness analysis - disease prevention - risk factors - netherlands - european union
Economic welfare analysis of simulated control strategies for Classical Swine Fever epidemics
Mangen, M.J.J. - \ 2002
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): A.A. Dijkhuizen; M. Nielen; A.M. Burrell. - S.l. : S.n. - ISBN 9789058086211 - 186
varkens - classical swine fever virus - varkenspest - ziekteoverdracht - ziektebestrijding - epidemiologie - vaccinatie - welvaartseconomie - kosten - verliezen - consumentengedrag - simulatiemodellen - economie - nederland - pigs - swine fever - disease transmission - disease control - epidemiology - vaccination - welfare economics - costs - losses - consumer behaviour - simulation models - economics - netherlands
<strong><font size="6"><p align="RIGHT"></p></strong><p align="RIGHT"> </p></font><p>Keywords: Classical swine fever; contagious disease; epidemiological model; sector-level market and trade model; simulation; economic welfare analysis; densely and sparsely populated areas; supplementary animal welfare measures; the Netherlands.</p><font size="2"><p> </p></font><p>A sector-level and trade market model and a generic, spatial, temporal and stochastic epidemiological model are used to simulate the epidemiological and economic effects of different measures to control classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in different regions in the Netherlands. The control measures include the current EU legislation (stamping-out infected herds; tracing contact herds and installing quarantine zones), preventive slaughtering or an emergency vaccination strategy with delayed destruction and intra-community trade as additional control measures. In addition, the effects of supplementary animal welfare measures to interrupt piglet production during a CSF epidemic are analysed. Different trade scenarios are simulated: a partial trade ban for the quarantine zones only or a total export ban on all Dutch live pigs. Aggregating the welfare changes of the different stakeholders (pig producers, consumers and government) provides results on the net welfare effect for the Dutch economy.</p><p>Economic and epidemiological results suggest that measures to control CSF epidemics should be dependent on geographical circumstances. In a sparsely populated pig area, the measures defined by EU legislation are appropriate, whereas in a densely populated area additional control measures, e.g. emergency vaccination and/or preventive slaughter, are needed. The current political climate favours preventive slaughter for the Dutch situation. Furthermore, the option of supplementary animal welfare measures to interrupt piglet production during the epidemic is rejected on economic grounds. Results indicate that rendering capacities should be reserved for carcasses from infected and preventively slaughtered farms, and used to destroy pig carcasses slaughtered for animal welfare reasons only if capacity permits.
Risk and economic consequences of contagious animal disease introduction
Horst, H.S. - \ 1998
Agricultural University. Promotor(en): A.A. Dijkhuizen; R.B.M. Huirne; P.W. de Leeuw. - Wageningen : WAU - ISBN 9789054857846 - 147
diergeneeskunde - zoötechniek - virusziekten - infectieziekten - ziektepreventie - varkenspest - mond- en klauwzeer - ondernemingen - risico - besluitvorming - bedrijfsvoering - operationeel onderzoek - simulatie - werkschema - lineair programmeren - computersimulatie - simulatiemodellen - nederland - veterinary science - zootechny - viral diseases - infectious diseases - disease prevention - swine fever - foot and mouth disease - enterprises - risk - decision making - management - operations research - simulation - work flow - linear programming - computer simulation - simulation models - netherlands
<p><strong>Introduction</strong><p>Within the European Union, epidemics of contagious animal diseases such as Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) are to be eradicated according to strict EU- prescriptions including stamping-out of infected herds, establishment of control and surveillance zones with complete standstill of animals and possible export bans on live animals. Epidemics clearly have a serious impact, in particular on countries with a high farm density and an export- oriented production, such as the Netherlands. Therefore, an effective animal disease prevention policy is of major importance for these countries.<p>This thesis is a result of a joint action by the government and private industry in the Netherlands that have funded a research project aimed at gaining more insight into the risk and economic consequences of virus introduction into the country.<p>Real-life experiments on strategies to reduce animal disease introduction and spread is not an option because such experiments would be too risky (and hence too costly). In principle, simulation modelling is an attractive alternative. It calculates the effects of predefined sets of input variables and therefore also offers the possibility of exploring strategies that have not been applied yet. Literature search showed that simulation models describing spread and economic consequences of epidemics within a country were already available. However, an integrated approach which combines the various aspects of outbreaks and spread with economic consequences of outbreaks was still lacking. Therefore, this research project emphasized the development of a model describing introduction of virus into the Netherlands and on the integration and combination of the models.<p><strong>Expert knowledge</strong><p><em>General</em><p>As with every model, the quality of the outcome of a simulation model is strongly influenced by the quality of the input ('garbage in = garbage out'). Therefore, a considerable part of the research was devoted to the gathering of information on aspects influencing virus introduction. It would be ideal to base the simulation model on relevant historical and experimental data. However, such information on virus introduction is limited, if available at all. Furthermore, outbreaks of contagious animal diseases occur irregularly over time and differ in magnitude; moreover circumstances change. Therefore it is questionable if historical data are relevant in simulating current and future events. Experimental data are also sparsely available. Literature search has shown that many researchers have done work in the area of contagious animal diseases, but most of their findings are of a qualitative nature. Despite this lack of 'objective' information, decisions on eradication and prevention of outbreaks must be made. Currently, such decisions rely on the expertise (a combination of experience and understanding of current/future circumstances) of those working in this area. Such expertise is a useful and necessary addition to the data available from research and databases. The elicitation of this 'expert knowledge' in an objective way, resulting in quantitative information useful for modelling purposes, was one of the major topics in the thesis.<p><em>Pilot experiment</em><p>For the elicitation experiment a format was sought which would guarantee a high response from experts and would provide the ability to elicit individual opinions in an objective way. Literature search showed that many elicitation methods were available, all with their own pros and cons. One of the methods, Conjoint Analysis, was considered an interesting technique for the elicitation of the relative importance of the risk factors. Conjoint Analysis is well known in consumer and marketing studies, but thus far has not or only scarcely been used in the field of animal health economics. A pilot experiment was conducted in which the potential of the method for elicitation of the relative importance of risk factors was explored. In this experiment, the Conjoint Analysis technique was used to draw up a paper questionnaire which was handed out during the 7th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE) held at Nairobi, Kenya, August 1994. Relevant ISVEE-participants asked to assign scores to profiles of six contagious animal diseases (African and Classical Swine Fever, Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Swine Vesicular Disease, Newcastle Disease, and Avian Influenza). The Kenya-experiment showed promising results. However, also some lessons for future use were learned. The 'paperapproach' resulted in a low response (30%) and the participants, who were not selected on the basis of their expertise, indicated that is was very difficult and time-consuming to evaluate six diseases at one time.<p><em>Basic experiment: elicitation of opinion of Dutch experts</em><p>The results and experiences of the Kenya experiment have led to and framed the use 0' Conjoint Analysis in a second and much bigger experiment during which the subjective knowledge of Dutch experts was elicited. Experts were defined as people that were involved in either research or policy-making on animal disease prevention and people that would be consulted in case of an outbreak. As the number of experts was limited, an approach was needed which would guarantee a high response rate. Therefore, the experiment was framed as a full evening's workshop. Such a workshop is a one-off group meeting, which means that the participants have to show up only once and have the possibility of discussing issues with other experts: both aspects may be attractive and incentives to join. This approach worked out well: the experiment was attended by a total of 43 out of 50 invited persons, a response rate of 86%.<p>Although it was acknowledged that group discussions may have the advantage of resulting in new and better approaches because people are able to share, evaluate and stimulate each other's opinions, the risk of possible negative effects of such discussions, such as individual dominance, was too high. Therefore, the workshop participants were asked to individually complete a computerized questionnaire. The program was developed to be self-explanatory, which minimized the interaction among participants and between participants and facilitators. The participants were given the opportunity to indicate on which disease they felt themselves most knowledgeable and were only asked questions about that disease. Furthermore, in order to keep the whole exercise at a manageable size, the questions were confined to Europe, the countries being grouped into five clusters.<p><em>Relative importance of risk factors</em><p>The relative importance of risk factors responsible for the introduction of virus into the Netherlands was elicited by using the above-described Conjoint Analysis method. Questions were asked per country cluster. The results showed that, for both FMD and CSF major risk factors were import of livestock and returning trucks. Differences between country clusters were small. For NCD, major risk factors were import of live animals, transport materials (crates) and import of exotic birds.<p>As a follow-up on the Kenya experiment, the Conjoint Analysis element of the workshop experiment was evaluated in detail on its usefulness as a tool to elicit expert knowledge in the field of animal health economics. Criteria were validity, consistency and respondent evaluation. The results obtained were comparable to or better than the results obtained in consumer and marketing studies. It was concluded that Conjoint Analysis provided a useful addition to the toolkit of the animal health economist.<p><em>Frequency of outbreaks in Europe</em><p>Each time an outbreak occurs in a European country, there is always a chance that the virus will be transferred to the Netherlands. A higher frequency of outbreaks in Europe means a higher risk of virus introduction to the Netherlands (and to all other countries). It was expected that estimates on the frequency of outbreaks would be difficult to make. Therefore, a method was chosen which enabled expression of uncertainty. This method, called ELI (elicitation), is a graphically-oriented computer program which facilitates the quantification of subjective knowledge about uncertain quantities. The program helps respondents produce subjective probability density functions (PDFs) and is based on socalled proper scoring rules. The top of a PDF indicates the best guess or most likely value, according to the respondent. The dispersion corresponds with the uncertainty as to this estimate.<p>The ELI-element of the workshop resulted in the parameters of a normal distribution from all participants individually concerning the expected number of outbreaks within the next five years. The workshop participants expected numerous outbreaks of NCD and CSF but not so many of FMD. For all three diseases, most outbreaks were expected to occur in Eastern Europe (midpoints were 21, 20, and 21, for CSF FMD and NCD respectively). The smallest numbers were expected in the country cluster containing the UK, Ireland and Scandinavia (midpoints were 1, 0.5, and 2.5, for CSF, FMD and NCD respectively).<p><em>High Risk Period</em><p>The High Risk Period (HRP) defines the period in which the virus is already present in a country but not yet detected or under control. During this period, the virus may spread freely within the country and/or transferred to other countries. The HRP can be divided into two periods, the first one starting with infection of the first animal and ending when an infected animal is detected (HRP1), the second period starting with detection and ending when all measures are considered effective (i.e., no spread to other countries) (HRP2).<p>The participating experts were asked to give a three-point estimate (minimum, most likely and maximum expected length) for the duration of both periods, for all country clusters and for the Netherlands. The HRP Is with the highest duration were expected for Eastern Europe (midpoints of 42, 19, and 21 days for CSF, FMD and NCD respectively). Shortest duration was expected for the cluster including the UK, Ireland and Scandinavia (midpoints were 21, 7, and 10 days for CSF, FMD and NCD respectively). Short durations were estimated for the Netherlands as well.<p>The HRP2 estimates showed the same distribution over countries, but were longer for FMD and CSF and shorter for NCD.
|Varkenspest: symptomen, epizootiologie en diagnose
Terpstra, C. - \ 1997
Tijdschrift voor Diergeneeskunde 122 (1997). - ISSN 0040-7453 - p. 198 - 200.
diergeneeskunde - varkens - varkenspest - veterinary science - pigs - swine fever
Naast een beschrijving van het klinische beeld en de laboratoriumdiagnostiek van klassieke varkenspest en de wijze, waarop de ziekte zich kan verspreiden, wordt er speciale aandacht besteed aan combinaties van symptomen, waarop de dierenarts bedacht moet zijn bij het controleren van bedrijven tijdens de recente varkenspestuitbraak
Insleep en verspreiding van besmettelijke dierziekten. Beslissingsondersteuning met Monte Carlo simulatie.
Horst, H.S. ; Jalvingh, A.W. ; Meuwissen, M.P.M. ; Nielen, M. ; Huirne, R.B.M. ; Dijkhuizen, A.A. - \ 1997
Agro Informatica 10 (1997)2. - ISSN 0925-4455 - p. 26 - 28.
diergeneeskunde - varkens - mond- en klauwzeer - varkenspest - infectieziekten - ziektepreventie - diergezondheid - hygiëne - computersimulatie - simulatie - simulatiemodellen - besluitvorming - bedrijfsvoering - operationeel onderzoek - werkschema - lineair programmeren - nederland - veterinary science - pigs - foot and mouth disease - swine fever - infectious diseases - disease prevention - animal health - hygiene - computer simulation - simulation - simulation models - decision making - management - operations research - work flow - linear programming - netherlands
In deze bijdrage wordt een overzicht gegeven van het onderzoek met een simulatiemodel naar de kans van insleep van mond- en klauwzeer en varkenspest, en een overzicht van het onderzoek met een ander simulatiemodel naar de verspreiding van beide ziekten binnen Nederland
|Simulation studies on the potential role on national identification and recording systems in the control of Classical Swine Fever.
Saatkamp, H.W. - \ 1996
Agricultural University : Wageningen (Mansholt studies 2) - ISBN 9789067544412 - 120
diergeneeskunde - varkens - varkenspest - epidemieën - epidemiologie - veterinary science - pigs - swine fever - epidemics - epidemiology