Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Diabetes and necrotizing soft tissue infections—A prospective observational cohort study : Statistical analysis plan
Rosén, A. ; Arnell, P. ; Madsen, M.B. ; Nedrebø, B.G. ; Norrby-Teglund, A. ; Hyldegaard, O. ; Santos, V.M. dos; Bergey, F. ; Saccenti, E. ; Skrede, S. - \ 2018
Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica 62 (2018)8. - ISSN 0001-5172 - p. 1171 - 1177.
critical care - diabetes - INFECT - necrotizing fasciitis - Necrotizing soft tissue infection

Background: Necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTIs) are rare but carry a high morbidity and mortality. The multicenter INFECT project aims to improve the understanding of the pathogenesis, clinical characteristics, diagnosis, and prognosis of NSTIs. This article describes the study outline and statistical analyses that will be used. Methods: Within the framework of INFECT project, patients with NSTI at 5 Scandinavian hospitals are enrolled in a prospective observational cohort study. The goal is to evaluate outcome and characteristics for patients with NSTI and diabetes compared to patients with NSTI without diabetes. The primary outcome is mortality at 90 days after inclusion. Secondary outcomes include days alive and out of ICU and hospital, SAPS II, SOFA score, infectious etiology, amputation, affected body area, and renal replacement therapy. Comparison in mortality between patients with diabetes type 1 and 2 as well as between insulin-treated and non-insulin–treated diabetes patients will be made. Clinical data for diabetic patients with NSTI will be reported. Conclusion: The study will provide important data on patients with NSTI and diabetes.

Necrotizing soft tissue infections - a multicentre, prospective observational study (INFECT) : Protocol and statistical analysis plan
Madsen, M.B. ; Skrede, S. ; Bruun, T. ; Arnell, P. ; Rosén, A. ; Nekludov, M. ; Karlsson, Y. ; Bergey, F. ; Saccenti, E. ; Martins dos Santos, V.A.P. ; Perner, A. ; Norrby-Teglund, A. ; Hyldegaard, O. - \ 2018
Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica 62 (2018)2. - ISSN 0001-5172 - p. 272 - 279.

Background: The INFECT project aims to advance our understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms in necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTIs). The INFECT observational study is part of the INFECT project with the aim of studying the clinical profile of patients with NSTIs and correlating these to patient-important outcomes. With this protocol and statistical analysis plan we describe the methods used to obtain data and the details of the planned analyses. Methods: The INFECT study is a multicentre, prospective observational cohort study. Patients with NSTIs are enrolled in five Scandinavian hospitals, which are all referral centres for NSTIs. The primary outcomes are the descriptive variables of the patients. Secondary outcomes include identification of factors associated with 90-day mortality and amputation; associations between affected body part, maximum skin defect and Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score and 90-day mortality; 90-day mortality in patients with and without acute kidney injury (AKI) and LRINEC score of six and above or below six; and association between affected body part at arrival and microbiological findings. Exploratory outcomes include univariate analyses of baseline characteristics associations with 90-day mortality. The statistical analyses will be conducted in accordance with the predefined statistical analysis plan. Conclusion: Necrotizing soft tissue infections result in severe morbidity and mortality. The INFECT study will be the largest prospective study in patients with NSTIs to date and will provide important data for clinicians, researchers and policy makers on the characteristics and outcomes of these patients.

Regional policy coordination and alignment in the Lake Victoria Basin
Rutting, L. ; Vervoort, J. ; Tumuhereze, M. ; Sassen, M. ; Soesbergen, A. van; Darrah, S. ; Arnell, A. ; Kanyamibwa, S. ; Nsengiyumva, P. ; Shennan Farpón, Y. - \ 2017
Agricultural development, biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Lake Victoria Basin
Soesbergen, A. van; Arnell, A. ; Sassen, M. ; Darrah, S. ; Shennan Farpón, Y. - \ 2017
Agricultural development, biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Lake Victoria Basin
Soesbergen, A. van; Sassen, M. ; Arnell, A. ; Darrah, S. ; Shennan Farpón, Y. - \ 2017
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Schellnhuber, H.J. ; Heinke, J. ; Gerten, D. ; Haddeland, I. ; Arnell, N.W. ; Clark, D.B. ; Dankers, R. ; Eisner, S. ; Kabat, P. - \ 2014
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111 (2014)9. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 3245 - 3250.
future food-production - model description - bias correction - river runoff - resources - availability - vulnerability - uncertainty - scenarios - trends
Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (
Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment
Prudhomme, C. ; Giuntoli, L. ; Robinson, E.L. ; Clark, D.B. ; Arnell, N.W. ; Dankers, R. ; Fekete, B.M. ; Franssen, W.H.P. - \ 2014
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111 (2014)9. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 3262 - 3267.
climate-change - carbon-dioxide - elevated co2 - models - extremes - cycle - face
Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.
Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP
Davie, J.C.S. ; Falloon, P.D. ; Kahana, R. ; Dankers, R. ; Betts, R. ; Portmann, F.T. ; Wisser, D. ; Clark, D.B. ; Ito, A. ; Masaki, Y. ; Nishina, K. ; Fekete, B. ; Tessler, Z. ; Wada, Y. ; Liu, X. ; Tang, Q. ; Hagemann, S. ; Stacke, T. ; Pavlick, R. ; Schaphoff, S. ; Gosling, S.N. ; Franssen, W.H.P. ; Arnell, N. - \ 2013
Earth System dynamics 4 (2013)2. - ISSN 2190-4979 - p. 359 - 374.
climate-change - carbon-dioxide - integrated model - hadgem2 family - surface-water - river flow - vegetation - impact - co2 - evapotranspiration
Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
Vuuren, D.P. van; Riahi, K. ; Moss, R. ; Edmonds, J. ; Thomson, A. ; Nakicenovic, N. ; Kram, T. ; Berkhout, F. ; Swart, R.J. ; Janetos, A. ; Rose, S.K. ; Arnell, N. - \ 2012
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 22 (2012)1. - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 21 - 35.
expert judgments - impact assessment - vulnerability - costs - stabilization - adaptation - strategies
In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.
Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results
Haddeland, I. ; Clark, D. ; Franssen, W.H.P. ; Ludwig, F. ; Voss, F. ; Arnell, N.W. ; Bertrand, N. ; Best, M. ; Folwell, S. ; Gerten, D. ; Gomes, S. ; Gosling, S. ; Hagemann, S. ; Hanasaki, N. ; Harding, R. ; Heinke, J. ; Kabat, P. ; Koirala, S. ; Oki, T. ; Polcher, J. ; Stacke, T. ; Viterbo, P. ; Weedon, G.P. ; Yeh, P. - \ 2011
Journal of Hydrometeorology 12 (2011)5. - ISSN 1525-755X - p. 869 - 884.
land-surface scheme - space-time climate - parameterization schemes - integrated model - project - simulation - resources - runoff - gcm - precipitation
Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project [Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP)], which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a consistent way. In this paper, the simulation setup is described and aspects of the multimodel global terrestrial water balance are presented. All models were run at 0.5° spatial resolution for the global land areas for a 15-yr period (1985–99) using a newly developed global meteorological dataset. Simulated global terrestrial evapotranspiration, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, ranges from 415 to 586 mm yr-1 (from 60 000 to 85 000 km3 yr-1), and simulated runoff ranges from 290 to 457 mm yr-1 (from 42 000 to 66 000 km3 yr-1). Both the mean and median runoff fractions for the land surface models are lower than those of the global hydrological models, although the range is wider. Significant simulation differences between land surface and global hydrological models are found to be caused by the snow scheme employed. The physically based energy balance approach used by land surface models generally results in lower snow water equivalent values than the conceptual degree-day approach used by global hydrological models. Some differences in simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are explained by model parameterizations, although the processes included and parameterizations used are not distinct to either land surface models or global hydrological models. The results show that differences between models are a major source of uncertainty. Climate change impact studies thus need to use not only multiple climate models but also some other measure of uncertainty (e.g., multiple impact models).
Genotype by environment interaction: basics and beyond
Eeuwijk, F.A. van; Malosetti, M. ; Boer, M.P. - \ 2006
In: Plant Breeding: The Arnell Hallauer International Symposium / Lamkey, K., Michael, L., Oxford : Blackwell Publishing - ISBN 9780813828244 - p. 155 - 170.
Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe
Schröter, D. ; Cramer, W. ; Leemans, R. ; Prentice, I.C. ; Araujo, M.B. ; Arnell, N.W. ; Bondeau, A. ; Brugmann, H. ; Carter, T.R. ; Gracia, C.A. ; Vega-Leinert, A.C. de la; Erhard, M. ; Ewert, F. ; Glendining, M. ; House, J.I. ; Kankaanpää, S. ; Klein, R.J.T. ; Lavorel, S. ; Lindner, M. ; Metzger, M.J. ; Meyer, J. ; Mitchell, T. ; Reginster, I. ; Rounsevell, M. ; Sabate, S. ; Stich, S. ; Smith, B. ; Smith, J. ; Smith, P. ; Sykes, M.T. ; Thonicke, K. ; Thuiller, W. ; Tuck, G. ; Zaehle, S. ; Zierl, B. - \ 2005
Science 310 (2005)5752. - ISSN 0036-8075 - p. 1333 - 1337.
climate-change - land-use - future scenarios - biodiversity
Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
Advanced terrestrial ecosystem analysis and modelling (ATEAM)
Schröter, D. ; Acosta-Michlik, L. ; Arnell, A.W. ; Araújo, M.B. ; Badeck, F. ; Bakker, Martha ; Bondeau, A. ; Brugmann, H. ; Carter, T. ; Vega de la-Leinert, A.C. ; Erhard, M. ; Espineira, G.Z. ; Ewert, F. ; Fritsch, U. ; Friedlingstein, P. ; Glendining, M. ; Gracia, C.A. ; Hickler, T. ; House, J. ; Hulme, M. ; Kankaanpää, S. ; Klein, R.J.T. ; Krukenberg, B. ; Lavorel, S. ; Leemans, R. ; Lindner, M. ; Liski, J. ; Metzger, M.J. ; Meyer, J. ; Mitchell, T. ; Mohren, G.M.J. ; Morales, P. ; Moreno, J.M. ; Reginster, I. ; Reidsma, P. ; Rounsevell, M. ; Pla, E. ; Pluimers, J.C. ; Prentice, I.C. ; Pussinen, A. ; Sánchez, A. ; Sabaté, S. ; Sitch, S. ; Smith, B. ; Smith, P. ; Sykes, M.T. ; Thonicke, K. ; Thuiller, W. ; Tuck, G. ; Werf, G. van der; Vayreda, J. ; Wattenbach, M. ; Wilson, D.W. ; Woodward, F.I. ; Zaehle, S. ; Zierl, B. ; Zudin, S. ; Cramer, W. - \ 2004
Potsdam : Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
ATEAM (advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling) final project report, EC project EVK2-2000-00075
Schröter, D. ; Acosta-Michlik, L. ; Arnell, A.W. ; Araujo, M.B. ; Badeck, F. ; Bakker, M. ; Bondeau, A. ; Bugmann, H. ; Carter, T. ; Vega-Leinert, A.C. de la; Erhard, M. ; Espineira, G.Z. ; Ewert, F. ; Friedlingstein, P. ; Fritsch, U. ; Glendining, M. ; Gracia, C.A. ; Hickler, T. ; House, J. ; Hulme, M. ; Klein, R.J.T. ; Krukenberg, B. ; Lavorel, S. ; Leemans, R. ; Lindner, M. ; Liski, J. ; Metzger, M.J. ; Meyer, J. ; Mitchell, T. ; Mohren, G.M.J. ; Morales, P. ; Moreno, J.M. ; Reginster, I. ; Reidsma, P. ; Rounsevell, M. ; Pluimers, J.C. ; Prentice, I.C. ; Pussinen, A. ; Sanchez, A. ; Sabaté, S. ; Sitch, S. ; Smith, B. ; Smith, J. ; Smith, P. ; Sykes, M.T. ; Thonicke, K. ; Thuiller, W. ; Tuck, G. ; Werf, W. van der; Vayreda, J. ; Wattenbach, M. ; Wilson, D.W. ; Woodward, F.I. ; Zaehle, S. ; Zierl, B. ; Zudin, S. ; Cramer, W. - \ 2004
Postdam : Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) - 139 p.
On the use of soil-landscape evolution modelling in understanding the hillslope hydrological response
Bogaart, P.W. ; Troch, P.A.A. - \ 2004
In: Hydrology: Science & Practice for the 21st century. - London : British Hydrological Society - ISBN 1903741106 - p. 251 - 259.
Human influence on flow regimes in The Netherlands.
Hoek, R. van den - \ 1989
In: Technical Documents in Hydrology / Arnell, N., Paris : Unesco - p. 12 pp. - 12 pp..
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