Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits
Springmann, Marco ; Clark, Michael ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Wiebe, Keith ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Lassaletta, Luis ; Vries, Wim de; Vermeulen, Sonja J. ; Herrero, Mario ; Carlson, Kimberly M. ; Jonell, Malin ; Troell, Max ; DeClerck, Fabrice ; Gordon, Line J. ; Zurayk, Rami ; Scarborough, Peter ; Rayner, Mike ; Loken, Brent ; Fanzo, Jess ; Godfray, H.C.J. ; Tilman, David ; Rockström, Johan ; Willett, Walter - \ 2018
Nature 562 (2018)7728. - ISSN 0028-0836 - p. 519 - 525.

The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50–90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.

BeechCOSTe52 Database
Robson, Matthew T. ; Garzón, Marta Benito ; Miranda, Ricardo Alia ; Bogdan, Saša ; Borovics, Attila ; Božič, Gregor ; Brendel, Oliver ; Clark, Jo ; Vries, S.M.G. de - \ 2018
genetic trial - European beech - tree height - leaf phenology - mortality - provenance test
The BeechCOSTe52 includes phenotypic trait measurements from individual trees measured in an international network of provenance tests compiled by the COST Action E52 (2006 – 2010). It comprises 39 trial sites and 217 provenances covering the distribution of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The BeechCOSTe52 database provides individual tree phenotypic measurements of height, diameter at breast height, basal diameter, mortality, spring and autumn leaf phenology.
Phenotypic trait variation measured on european genetic trials of fagus sylvatica L
Robson, Matthew T. ; Garzón, Marta Benito ; Miranda, Ricardo Alia ; Egido, Diana Barba ; Bogdan, Saša ; Borovics, Attila ; Božič, Gregor ; Brendel, Oliver ; Clark, Jo ; Vries, Sven M.G. de; Delehan, Ivan I. ; Ducousso, Alexis ; Fady, Bruno ; Fennessy, John ; Forstreuter, Manfred ; Frýdl, Josef ; Geburek, Thomas ; Gömöry, Dušan ; Hauke-Kowalska, Maria ; Huber, Gerhard ; Ibañez, Juan Ignacio ; Ioniţă, Lucia ; Ivankovič, Mladen ; Hansen, Jon Kehlet ; Kóczán-Horváth, Anikó ; Kraigher, Hojka ; Lee, Steve ; Liesebach, Mirko ; Mátyás, Csaba ; Mertens, Patrick ; Muhs, Hans Jakob ; Novotný, Petr ; Parnuţa, Gheorghe ; Paule, Ladislav ; Picardo, Alvaro ; Rasztovics, Ervin ; Rogge, Martin ; Stener, Lars Göran ; Sułkowska, Małgorzata ; Urban, Otmar ; Wuehlisch, Georg Von; Vendramin, Giovanni G. ; Vettori, Cristina ; Wesoły, Wojciech - \ 2018
Scientific Data 5 (2018). - ISSN 2052-4463
We present BeechCOSTe52; a database of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) phenotypic measurements for several traits related to fitness measured in genetic trials planted across Europe. The dataset was compiled and harmonized during the COST-Action E52 (2006-2010), and subsequently cross-validated to ensure consistency of measurement data among trials and provenances. Phenotypic traits (height, diameter at breast height, basal diameter, mortality, phenology of spring bud burst and autumn-leaf discoloration) were recorded in 38 trial sites where 217 provenances covering the entire distribution of European beech were established in two consecutive series (1993/95 and 1996/98). The recorded data refer to 862,095 measurements of the same trees aged from 2 to 15 years old over multiple years. This dataset captures the considerable genetic and phenotypic intra-specific variation present in European beech and should be of interest to researchers from several disciplines including quantitative genetics, ecology, biogeography, macroecology, adaptive management of forests and bioeconomy.
Co-generating knowledge on ecosystem services and the role of new technologies
Buytaert, Wouter ; Ochoa-Tocachi, Boris F. ; Hannah, David M. ; Clark, Julian ; Dewulf, Art - \ 2018
In: Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation / Schreckenberg, Kate, Mace, Georgina, Poudyal, Mahesh, Taylor and Francis - ISBN 9781138580831 - p. 174 - 188.

Policy makers are increasingly aware that decision-making in the context of ecosystem services management, and of development, can benefit from collaborative and inclusive approaches to knowledge generation and the design of intervention strategies, such as by providing a more prominent role for indigenous knowledge in decision-making and by using participatory methods for data collection and knowledge generation. In this chapter, we discuss how technologies such as mobile phones, low-cost and robust sensors, and increasingly pervasive remote-sensing satellites and drones can be particularly transformative in the way they facilitate the creation, access and transmission of information about ecosystem services, and support evidence-based decision-making. Furthermore, we discuss how these technologies can be used to promote stakeholder involvement in the knowledge generation process and to make it more inclusive and participatory. While we highlight potential risks related to the use of new technologies, such as exploitation by specific stakeholders to support specific agendas or interests, we identify opportunities for an increasing diversification and tailoring of knowledge creation, moving away from a top-down process dominated by scientists and toward more decentralised, bottom-up and iterative approaches that can have a transformative impact on local ecosystem services management, making it more inclusive, polycentric, evidence-based and robust.

Actieve kool voor verwijdering gewasbeschermingsmiddelen : uit lozingswater van de glastuinbouw
Ruijven, J.P.M. ; Staaij, M. van der; Eveleens-Clark, B. ; Beerling, E.A.M. ; Koeman, N. ; Palmen, L. - \ 2018
Bleiswijk : Wageningen University & Research, BU Glastuinbouw (Wageningen University & Research, BU Glastuinbouw rapport WPR-726) - 42
Zuivering met actief kool is in potentie een interessante techniek voor toepassing op lozingswater van de glastuinbouw. Doel van het project was het ontwikkelen en testen van een simpele en robuuste installatie op basis van poeder actief kool (PAC), die kan concurreren met alternatieve zuiveringstechnieken die reeds op de markt zijn. Een benchmark voor kosten van de installatie is berekend met een nieuw ontwikkelde rekentool (gekoppeld aan het model waterstromen), die voor situaties van individuele telers de investerings- en jaarkosten van de beschikbare zuiveringsinstallaties kan vergelijken. Deze rekentool is ook online beschikbaar gemaakt voor telers. De ontworpen installatie bestaat uit een doseerunit voor PAC, een geroerd reactorvat, een doseerunit voor vlokmiddel en nafiltratie met een doekfilter. Voor drie doseringen en drie contacttijden is voor SAE Super en Pulsorb WP235 het zuiveringsrendement bepaald. Verhogen van contacttijd en dosering verhoogt het zuiveringsrendement. Het gewenste zuiveringsrendement van 95% werd niet voor alle werkzame stoffen gehaald. Daarnaast was de toegepaste nafiltratie niet effectief genoeg en heeft nog optimalisatie nodig. Als spinoff van het project is inmiddels een installatie van WaterQ op basis van PAC en ultrafiltratie goedgekeurd voor het zuiveren van glastuinbouw lozingswater---Water purification using activated carbon is potentially an interesting technology for the removal of plant protection products from greenhouse discharge water. Goal of this project was development and testing of a simple and robust powdered activated carbon installation (PAC), that is competitive with already available technologies. A newly developed tool (connected with the ‘model waterstromen’ ) is capable of calculating a benchmark for cost of purification equipment for individual practical situations. This tool is publicly available online for growers. The developed installation consists of a PAC dosing unit, a stirred reaction tank, a dosing unit for flocculation of chemicals and filtration with a paper band filter. The purification efficacy is measured with this installation for three dosages and three contact times for SAE Super and Pulsorb WP235 PAC. Increasing the contact time and dosage increased the purification efficacy. The minimal purification efficacy of 95% was not reached for all active ingredients. In addition to that, chosen filtration needs optimisation to achieve a reasonable efficacy for application in practice. Project partner WaterQ in the meantime achieved an approval for an installation with PAC and ultrafiltration for purification of greenhouse discharge water as a spin-off from this project
Co-generating knowledge on ecosystem services and the role of new technologies
Buytaert, Wouter ; Ochoa-Tocachi, Boris F. ; Hannah, D.M. ; Clark, J. ; Dewulf, A.R.P.J. - \ 2018
In: Ecosystem Services and Poverty alleviation / Schreckenberg, Kate, Mace, Georgina, Poudyal, Mahesh, London : Earthscan, Routledge - ISBN 9781138580831 - p. 174 - 188.
Policy makers are increasingly aware that decision-making in the context of ecosystem services management, and of development, can benefit from collaborative and inclusive approaches to knowledge generation and the design of intervention strategies, such as by providing a more prominent role for indigenous knowledge in decision-making and by using participatory methods for data collection and knowledge generation. In this chapter, we discuss how technologies such as mobile phones, low-cost and robust sensors, and increasingly pervasive remote-sensing satellites and drones can be particularly transformative in the way they facilitate the creation, access and transmission of information about ecosystem services, and support evidence-based decision-making. Furthermore, we discuss how these technologies can be used to promote stakeholder involvement in the knowledge generation process and to make it more inclusive and participatory. While we highlight potential risks related to the use of new technologies, such as exploitation by specific stakeholders to support specific agendas or interests, we identify opportunities for an increasing diversification and tailoring of knowledge creation, moving away from a top-down process dominated by scientists and toward more decentralised, bottom-up and iterative approaches that can have a transformative impact on local ecosystem services management, making it more inclusive, polycentric, evidence-based and robust.
Drivers of existing and emerging food safety risks : Expert opinion regarding multiple impacts
Kendall, Helen ; Kaptan, Gulbanu ; Stewart, Gavin ; Grainger, Matthew ; Kuznesof, Sharron ; Naughton, Paul ; Clark, Beth ; Hubbard, Carmen ; Raley, Marian ; Marvin, Hans J.P. ; Frewer, Lynn J. - \ 2018
Food Control 90 (2018). - ISSN 0956-7135 - p. 440 - 458.
Delphi technique - Emerging risk - Existing risk - Expert opinion - Food safety
Considerable research effort is invested in the development of evidence to help policy makers and industry deal with the challenges associated with existing and emerging food safety threats. This research aimed to elicit expert views regarding the relationship between the drivers of existing and emerging food safety risks, in order to facilitate their control and mitigation, and to provide the basis for further international policy integration. A Delphi approach involving repeated polling of n = 106 global food safety experts was adopted. The primary drivers of existing and emerging food safety risks were identified to be demographic change, economic driving forces, resource shortages, environmental driving forces, increased complexity of the food supply chain, water security and malevolent activities. The identification of socio-economic and biophysical drivers emphasises the need for a transdisciplinary and systems approach to food safety management and mitigation. The mitigation of hazards on a case-by-case basis is unlikely to have a major impact on food safety hazards but may have unintended effects (where positive or negative) across a broad spectrum of food safety issues. Rather a holistic or systems approach is required which can address both the intended and unintended effects of different drivers and their interactions.
Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections
Melsen, Lieke A. ; Addor, Nans ; Mizukami, Naoki ; Newman, Andrew J. ; Torfs, Paul J.J.F. ; Clark, Martyn P. ; Uijlenhoet, Remko ; Teuling, Adriaan J. - \ 2018
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22 (2018)3. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 1775 - 1791.
Hydrologic projections are of vital socio-economic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070-2100 compared to 1985-2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning.
Voorkomen en bestrijden emissies kasteelten : Fase I: 2017
Beerling, Ellen ; Blok, Chris ; Cornelissen, Emile ; Eveleens-Clark, Barbara ; Gozales, Jorge ; Harmsen, Danny ; Koeman, Nienke ; Leyh, Romain ; Os, Eric van; Palmen, Luc ; Roest, Els van der; Ruijven, Jim van; Stijger, Ineke ; Voogt, Wim - \ 2018
Bleiswijk : Wageningen University & Research, BU Glastuinbouw (Rapport WPR 748) - 46
In this project, solutions are developed to minimise leaching of nutrients and pesticides from greenhouses to the environment (esp. surface water), in order to comply with legislation and societal demands. In 2017 the following questions have been addressed: To prevent emission, drain solutions are reused or purified. Other water flows may deviate in compositionand possibilities for reuse or purification. The option for reuse or purification for these water flows has been investigated, and a working methodology for the end of a cultivation (e.g. cleaning) has been developed. Applications of Forward Osmosis in horticulture have been investigated. Water extracted from the discharge flow with Forward Osmosis using the concentrated nutrient solution holds prospects, but extracting irrigation water from brackish groundwater seems less feasible. In a long-term experiment, sodium (Na) standards for sweet pepper have been reinterpreted. It was shown that an increase in the Na standard up to 8-10 mmol/l causes no damage or loss in pepper production. Inaddition, it was shown that the split-root system can be used for uptake of extra Na without growth hampering. Furthermore, applying humate can prevent negative sodium effects at high sodium levels (Chinese cabbage). Finally, insight was gained into the risks associated with the use of chlorinated cleaning products in zero-discharge cultivations.
Feasibility of coupled empirical and dynamic modeling to assess climate change and air pollution impacts on temperate forest vegetation of the eastern United States
McDonnell, T.C. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Sullivan, T.J. ; Clark, C.M. ; Bonten, L.T.C. ; Mol-Dijkstra, J.P. ; Wamelink, G.W.W. ; Dovciak, M. - \ 2018
Environmental Pollution 234 (2018). - ISSN 0269-7491 - p. 902 - 914.
Acidification - Biodiversity - Climate change - Forest understory - Nitrogen
Changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition caused pronounced changes in soil conditions and habitat suitability for many plant species over the latter half of the previous century. Such changes are expected to continue in the future with anticipated further changing air temperature and precipitation that will likely influence the effects of N deposition. To investigate the potential long-term impacts of atmospheric N deposition on hardwood forest ecosystems in the eastern United States in the context of climate change, application of the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community model VSD+PROPS was explored at three sites in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee. This represents the first application of VSD+PROPS to forest ecosystems in the United States. Climate change and elevated (above mid-19th century) N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability. Although simulation results suggested that the suitability of these forests to support the continued presence of their characteristic understory plant species might decline by the year 2100, low data availability for building vegetation response models with PROPS resulted in uncertain results at the extremes of simulated N deposition. Future PROPS model development in the United States should focus on inclusion of additional foundational data or alternate candidate predictor variables to reduce these uncertainties. Climate change and elevated N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability for plants, and are expected to interact with changes in soil chemistry.
Above- and below-ground growth response test
Eveleens-Clark, B.A. - \ 2017
In Greenhouses : the international magazine for greenhouse growers 6 (2017)4. - ISSN 2215-0633 - p. 43 - 43.
Bio-based chemicals: general discussion
Bitter, Harry ; Clark, James ; Rothenberg, Gadi ; Matharu, Avtar ; Crestini, Claudia ; Argyropoulos, Dimitris ; Cabrera-Rodríguez, Carlos I. ; Dale, Bruce E. ; Stevens, Christian ; Marrocchi, Assunta ; Graca, Ines ; Luo, Hui ; Pant, Deepak ; Wilson, Karen ; Zijlstra, Douwe Sjirk ; Gschwend, Florence ; Mu, Xindong ; Zhou, Long ; Hu, Changwei ; Lapkin, Alexei ; Mascal, Mark ; Budarin, Vitaliy ; Hunt, Andrew ; Waldron, Keith ; Zhang, Fang ; Zhenova, Anna ; Samec, Joseph ; Huber, George ; Coma, Marta ; Huang, Xiaoming ; Bomtempo, José-Vitor - \ 2017
Faraday Discussions 202 (2017). - ISSN 1359-6640 - p. 227 - 245.
Developing a Research Strategy to Better Understand, Observe, and Simulate Urban Atmospheric Processes at Kilometer to Subkilometer Scales
Barlow, J. ; Best, M. ; Bohnenstengel, S. ; Clark, P. ; Grimmond, S. ; Lean, H. ; Christen, A. ; Emeis, S. ; Haeffelin, M. ; Harman, I.N. ; Lemonsu, A. ; Martilli, A. ; Pardyjak, E. ; Rotach, M.W. ; Ballard, S. ; Boutle, I. ; Brown, A. ; Cai, X. ; Carpentieri, M. ; Coceal, O. ; Crawford, B. ; Sabatino, S. Di; Dou, J. ; Drew, D.R. ; Edwards, J.M. ; Fallmann, J. ; Fortuniak, K. ; Gornall, J. ; Gronemeier, T. ; Halios, C.H. ; Hertwig, D. ; Hirano, K. ; Holtslag, A.A.M. ; Luo, Z. ; Mills, G. ; Nakayoshi, M. ; Pain, K. ; Schlünzen, K.H. ; Smith, S. ; Soulhac, L. ; Steeneveld, G.J. ; Sun, T. ; Theeuwes, N.E. ; Thomson, D. ; Voogt, J.A. ; Ward, H.C. ; Xie, Z.T. ; Zhong, J. - \ 2017
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98 (2017)10. - ISSN 0003-0007 - p. ES261 - ES264.
Citizen science for hydrological risk reduction and resilience building
Paul, Jonathan D. ; Buytaert, Wouter ; Allen, Simon ; Ballesteros‐Cánovas, Juan A. ; Bhusal, Jagat K. ; Cieslik, Katarzyna ; Clark, Julian ; Dugar, Sumit ; Hannah, David M. ; Stoffel, M. ; Dewulf, A.R.P.J. ; Dhital, Megh R. ; Liu, Wei ; Nayaval, Janak Lal ; Neupane, Bhanu ; Schiller, Arnulf ; Smith, P.J. ; Supper, Robert - \ 2017
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water 2017 (2017). - ISSN 2049-1948 - 15 p.
In disaster risk management (DRM), an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments toward more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Arguably, nonscientist local stakeholders have always played an important role in knowledge risk management and resilience building within a hydrological context, such as flood response and drought alleviation. However, rapidly developing information and communication technologies such as the Internet, smartphones, and social media have already demonstrated their sizeable potential to make knowledge creation more multidirectional, decentralized, diverse, and inclusive. Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a ‘citizen science’ approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for risk management. Such projects work best when there is community buy-in, when their purpose(s) are clearly defined at the outset, and when the motivations and skillsets of all participants and stakeholders are well understood. They have great potential to enhance knowledge creation, not only for data collection, but also for analysis or interpretation. In addition, they can serve as a means of educating and empowering communities and stakeholders that are bypassed by more traditional knowledge generation processes. Here, we review the state-of-the-art of citizen science within the context of hydrological risk reduction and resilience building. Particularly when embedded within a polycentric approach toward risk governance, we argue that citizen science could complement more traditional knowledge generation practices, and also enhance innovation, adaptation, multidirectional information provision, risk management, and local resilience building.
Predicting gene regulatory networks by combining spatial and temporal gene expression data in Arabidopsis root stem cells
Balaguer, Maria Angels De Luis ; Fisher, Adam P. ; Clark, Natalie M. ; Fernandez-Espinosa, Maria Guadalupe ; Möller, Barbara K. ; Weijers, Dolf ; Lohmann, Jan U. ; Williams, Cranos ; Lorenzo, Oscar ; Sozzani, Rosangela - \ 2017
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 114 (2017)36. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. E7632 - E7640.
Cell-type expression profile - Gene regulatory network - Modeling - Root development - Root stem cell
Identifying the transcription factors (TFs) and associated networks involved in stem cell regulation is essential for understanding the initiation and growth of plant tissues and organs. Although many TFs have been shown to have a role in the Arabidopsis root stem cells, a comprehensive view of the transcriptional signature of the stem cells is lacking. In this work, we used spatial and temporal transcriptomic data to predict interactions among the genes involved in stem cell regulation. To accomplish this, we transcriptionally profiled several stem cell populations and developed a gene regulatory network inference algorithm that combines clustering with dynamic Bayesian network inference. We leveraged the topology of our networks to infer potential major regulators. Specifically, through mathematical modeling and experimental validation, we identified PERIANTHIA (PAN) as an important molecular regulator of quiescent center function. The results presented in this work show that our combination of molecular biology, computational biology, and mathematical modeling is an efficient approach to identify candidate factors that function in the stem cells.
HESS Opinions : A conceptual framework for assessing socio-hydrological resilience under change
Mao, Feng ; Clark, Julian ; Karpouzoglou, Timothy ; Dewulf, Art ; Buytaert, Wouter ; Hannah, David M. - \ 2017
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (2017)7. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 3655 - 3670.
Despite growing interest in resilience, there is still significant scope for increasing its conceptual clarity and practical relevance in socio-hydrological contexts: Specifically, questions of how socio-hydrological systems respond to and cope with perturbations and how these connect to resilience remain unanswered. In this opinion paper, we propose a novel conceptual framework for understanding and assessing resilience in coupled socio-hydrological contexts, and encourage debate on the inter-connections between socio-hydrology and resilience. Taking a systems perspective, we argue that resilience is a set of systematic properties with three dimensions: Absorptive, adaptive, and transformative, and contend that socio-hydrological systems can be viewed as various forms of human-water couplings, reflecting different aspects of these interactions. We propose a framework consisting of two parts. The first part addresses the identity of socio-hydrological resilience, answering questions such as "resilience of what in relation to what". We identify three existing framings of resilience for different types of human-water systems and subsystems, which have been used in different fields: (1) the water subsystem, highlighting hydrological resilience to anthropogenic hazards; (2) the human subsystem, foregrounding social resilience to hydrological hazards; and (3) the coupled human-water system, exhibiting socio-hydrological resilience. We argue that these three system types and resiliences afford new insights into the clarification and evaluation of different water management challenges. The first two types address hydrological and social states, while the third type emphasises the feedbacks and interactions between human and water components within complex systems subject to internal or external disturbances. In the second part, we focus on resilience management and develop the notion of the "resilience canvas", a novel heuristic device to identify possible pathways and to facilitate the design of bespoke strategies for enhancing resilience in the socio-hydrological context. The resilience canvas is constructed by combining absorptive and adaptive capacities as two axes. At the corners of the resulting two-dimensional space are four quadrants which we conceptualise as representing resilient, vulnerable, susceptible, and resistant system states. To address projected change-induced uncertainties, we recommend that efforts now be focused on shifting socio-hydrological systems from resistant towards resilient status. In sum, the novel framework proposed here clarifies the ambiguity inherent in socio-hydrological resilience, and provides a viable basis for further theoretical and practical development.
Scaling, similarity, and the fourth paradigm for hydrology
Peters-Lidard, Christa D. ; Clark, Martyn ; Samaniego, Luis ; Verhoest, Niko E.C. ; Emmerik, Tim Van; Uijlenhoet, Remko ; Achieng, Kevin ; Franz, Trenton E. ; Woods, Ross A. - \ 2017
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (2017)7. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 3701 - 3713.
In this synthesis paper addressing hydrologic scaling and similarity, we posit that roadblocks in the search for universal laws of hydrology are hindered by our focus on computational simulation (the third paradigm) and assert that it is time for hydrology to embrace a fourth paradigm of data-intensive science. Advances in information-based hydrologic science, coupled with an explosion of hydrologic data and advances in parameter estimation and modeling, have laid the foundation for a data-driven framework for scrutinizing hydrological scaling and similarity hypotheses. We summarize important scaling and similarity concepts (hypotheses) that require testing; describe a mutual information framework for testing these hypotheses; describe boundary condition, state, flux, and parameter data requirements across scales to support testing these hypotheses; and discuss some challenges to overcome while pursuing the fourth hydrological paradigm. We call upon the hydrologic sciences community to develop a focused effort towards adopting the fourth paradigm and apply this to outstanding challenges in scaling and similarity.
The evolution of process-based hydrologic models : Historical challenges and the collective quest for physical realism
Clark, Martyn P. ; Bierkens, Marc F.P. ; Samaniego, Luis ; Woods, Ross A. ; Uijlenhoet, Remko ; Bennett, Katrina E. ; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N. ; Cai, Xitian ; Wood, Andrew W. ; Peters-Lidard, Christa D. - \ 2017
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (2017)7. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 3427 - 3440.
The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this paper, we revisit key modeling challenges on requirements to (1) define suitable model equations, (2) define adequate model parameters, and (3) cope with limitations in computing power. We outline the historical modeling challenges, provide examples of modeling advances that address these challenges, and define outstanding research needs. We illustrate how modeling advances have been made by groups using models of different type and complexity, and we argue for the need to more effectively use our diversity of modeling approaches in order to advance our collective quest for physically realistic hydrologic models.
Water as “Time-Substance” : The Hydrosocialities of Climate Change in Nepal
Clark, Julian ; Gurung, Praju ; Chapagain, Prem Sagar ; Regmi, Santosh ; Bhusal, Jagat K. ; Karpouzoglou, Timothy ; Mao, Feng ; Dewulf, Art - \ 2017
Annals of the American Association of Geographers 107 (2017)6. - ISSN 2469-4452 - p. 1351 - 1369.

This article develops a novel theoretical framework to explain how water's situatedness relates to its political agency. Recent posthuman scholarship emphasizes these qualities but, surprisingly, no sustained analysis has been undertaken of this interrelation. Here we do so by theorizing water as a “time-substance” to reposition human hydrological struggles (including those exacerbated by climate change) around the topologies and temporalities rather than the spatialities of water. This innovative approach opens up new areas of geographical enquiry based on hydrosocial forms, hydrosocial transformations, and hydrosocial information (collectively referred to here as hydrosocialities). We contend that hydrosocialities enable the tracing of human–water relations that transcend times and scales and the matricial categories of subject and object to overcome the situated–agential binary of water. Drawing on two years of fieldwork in Mustang, Nepal, this conceptual framework is deployed to examine hydrosocialities in two remote mountain communities. We show hydrosocialities that comprise diverse water knowledge practices constituted from multiple points of proximity between the social and the hydrological in space and time. In turn, this conceptual framework underscores the importance of boundary objects in mediating water's situated–agential qualities. The article concludes that consequently boundary objects can play a crucial role in producing new practical hydrosocial politics of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Putting hydrological modelling practice to the test
Melsen, Lieke Anna - \ 2017
University. Promotor(en): Remko Uijlenhoet, co-promotor(en): Ryan Teuling; M.P. Clark. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431224 - 170

Six steps can be distinguished in the process of hydrological modelling: the perceptual model (deciding on the processes), the conceptual model (deciding on the equations), the procedural model (get the code to run on a computer), calibration (identify the parameters), evaluation (confronting output with observations), and uncertainty analysis (estimate uncertainty in the model and its output). An engineer conducts these steps different than a scientist, because the goal of an engineer is to solve practical problems, while the goal of a scientist is to increase the understanding of the system. The difference between scientists and engineers is most pronounced in the perceptual modelling step. However, in many of the current hydrologic sciences studies, engineering and scientific approaches are mixed. As a scientist, three common philosophies of science can be adopted: verificationism, falsificationism, and Bayesianism. It was demonstrated that verificationism most closely resembles engineering in the modelling steps, while falsificationism and Bayesianism call for a different practice.

In this thesis, several of the modelling steps have been investigated in more detail. In order to investigate these modelling steps, we applied widely used hydrological models (Chapter 2). These models vary in complexity, and have been applied to catchments with varying temporal and spatial scales.

In Chapter 3 three parameter identification methods and their data requirements were compared for a small (3.3 km2) catchment using a parsimonious two-parameter model. Two methods based on discharge data were employed, Bayesian based automatic calibration (DREAM) and recession analysis, and one physics-based method was employed, Boussinesq theory. Automatic calibration and recession analysis both required five months of discharge data in order to obtain stable parameter estimations. Boussinesq theory, which allows a-priori parameter estimation based on catchment characteristics, showed to lead to highly uncertain parameters due to uncertainty in the catchment characteristics.

Chapter 4 deals with the transferability (and thus sensitivity) of parameters across spatial and temporal resolutions in the Thur catchment (1703 km2). It was shown that parameters were hardly sensitive to the spatial resolution (a high transferability), while the parameters were very sensitive to the temporal resolution (especially from hourly/daily to a monthly time step). This indicates that the spatial variability is substantially underestimated. In this study we adopted common practice for hyper-resolution models applied at a large domain. The results therefore provide a strong motivation to further investigate and improve the representation of spatial and temporal variability in large-domain hydrological models.

Chapter 5 shows that decisions during model configuration, basically subjective decisions of the modeller, significantly impact the simulation of hydrological extremes in the Thur basin (1703 km2) We explored four modelling decisions; the spatial resolution of the model, the spatial representation of forcing, the calibration period, and the performance metric, and investigated if these decisions influenced the simulated flood and drought characteristics in the Thur basin. It was shown that for the flood characteristics, the performance metric was the most influential decision, and for the drought characteristics, the calibration period was most important. Subjective modelling decisions introduce uncertainty in the modelling process. Working with multiple hypotheses of model implementations could help in providing insight in this uncertainty.

In Chapter 6 we explore three sources of uncertainty in a hydrological climate change impact assessment for the period 2070-2100 for 605 basins throughout the contiguous United States; parameter uncertainty, hydrological model structural uncertainty, and uncertainty in General Circulation Model (GCM) forcing. It was demonstrated that the uncertainty introduced by any of the three sources can be thus large that even the sign of the change is unknown in many basins (i.e., an increase or decrease in average annual runoff compared to the period 1985-2008). This uncertainty could be attributed to the snow parameterization in the hydrological models and disagreement among the GCMs on the change in precipitation. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that processes related to aridity and intermittent flow behaviour are not yet well captured in the investigated hydrological models.

In Chapter 7 it was shown, based on a literature study of 192 peer-reviewed publications, that the spatial resolution at which the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is applied has increased, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. It is argued that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the spatial resolution of the model in order to resolve the processes relevant at the applied spatial resolution. Different processes are relevant at different spatial scales; the calibration and validation time interval should reflect the temporal scale of these processes in order to estimate the credibility of the model.

The results from all the studies can be summarized in three points: Not only the model choice, but also the configuration of the model determines the outcome of the model; sufficient data are needed to constrain and evaluate a model; and the large uncertainty in modelling studies provides a strong motivation to increase our understanding - i.e., to focus on science rather than on engineering. In order to establish this, models should be related to theories (hypotheses), which should be tried to falsified. The model set-up should be considered an element of the tested theory. Novel observation technologies provide the opportunity to test and falsify these theories, and can lead to the formulation of new theories.

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