Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Cereal yield gaps across Europe
Schils, René ; Olesen, Jørgen E. ; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian ; Rijk, Bert ; Oberforster, Michael ; Kalyada, Valery ; Khitrykau, Maksim ; Gobin, Anne ; Kirchev, Hristofor ; Manolova, Vanya ; Manolov, Ivan ; Trnka, Mirek ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Paluoso, Taru ; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo ; Jauhiainen, Lauri ; Lorgeou, Josiane ; Marrou, Hélène ; Danalatos, Nikos ; Archontoulis, Sotirios ; Fodor, Nándor ; Spink, John ; Roggero, Pier Paolo ; Bassu, Simona ; Pulina, Antonio ; Seehusen, Till ; Uhlen, Anne Kjersti ; Żyłowska, Katarzyna ; Nieróbca, Anna ; Kozyra, Jerzy ; Silva, João Vasco ; Maçãs, Benvindo Martins ; Coutinho, José ; Ion, Viorel ; Takáč, Jozef ; Mínguez, M.I. ; Eckersten, Henrik ; Levy, Lilia ; Herrera, Juan Manuel ; Hiltbrunner, Jürg ; Kryvobok, Oleksii ; Kryvoshein, Oleksandr ; Boogaard, Hendrik ; Groot, Hugo de; Lesschen, Jan Peter ; Bussel, Lenny van; Wolf, Joost ; Zijlstra, Mink ; Loon, Marloes P. van; Ittersum, Martin K. van - \ 2018
European Journal of Agronomy 101 (2018). - ISSN 1161-0301 - p. 109 - 120.
Barley - Crop modelling - Grain maize - Nitrogen - Wheat - Yield potential

Europe accounts for around 20% of the global cereal production and is a net exporter of ca. 15% of that production. Increasing global demand for cereals justifies questions as to where and by how much Europe's production can be increased to meet future global market demands, and how much additional nitrogen (N) crops would require. The latter is important as environmental concern and legislation are equally important as production aims in Europe. Here, we used a country-by-country, bottom-up approach to establish statistical estimates of actual grain yield, and compare these to modelled estimates of potential yields for either irrigated or rainfed conditions. In this way, we identified the yield gaps and the opportunities for increased cereal production for wheat, barley and maize, which represent 90% of the cereals grown in Europe. The combined mean annual yield gap of wheat, barley, maize was 239 Mt, or 42% of the yield potential. The national yield gaps ranged between 10 and 70%, with small gaps in many north-western European countries, and large gaps in eastern and south-western Europe. Yield gaps for rainfed and irrigated maize were consistently lower than those of wheat and barley. If the yield gaps of maize, wheat and barley would be reduced from 42% to 20% of potential yields, this would increase annual cereal production by 128 Mt (39%). Potential for higher cereal production exists predominantly in Eastern Europe, and half of Europe's potential increase is located in Ukraine, Romania and Poland. Unlocking the identified potential for production growth requires a substantial increase of the crop N uptake of 4.8 Mt. Across Europe, the average N uptake gaps, to achieve 80% of the yield potential, were 87, 77 and 43 kg N ha−1 for wheat, barley and maize, respectively. Emphasis on increasing the N use efficiency is necessary to minimize the need for additional N inputs. Whether yield gap reduction is desirable and feasible is a matter of balancing Europe's role in global food security, farm economic objectives and environmental targets.

Estimating winter survival of winter wheat by simulations of plant frost tolerance
Bergjord Olsen, A.K. ; Persson, T. ; Wit, A. de; Nkurunziza, L. ; Sindhøj, E. ; Eckersten, H. - \ 2018
Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science 204 (2018)1. - ISSN 0931-2250 - p. 62 - 73.
FROSTOL - LT - modelling - plant cover - risk assessments - winter damage
Based on soil temperature, snow depth and the grown cultivar's maximum attainable level of frost tolerance (LT50c), the FROSTOL model simulates development of frost tolerance (LT50) and winter damage, thereby enabling risk calculations for winter wheat survival. To explore the accuracy of this model, four winter wheat cultivars were sown in a field experiment in Uppsala, Sweden in 2013 and 2014. The LT50 was determined by tests of frost tolerance in November, and the cultivars’ LT50c was estimated. Further, recorded winter survival from 20 winter wheat field variety trials in Sweden and Norway was collected from two winter seasons with substantial winter damages. FROSTOL simulations were run for selected cultivars at each location. According to percentage of winter damage, the cultivar survival was classified as “survived,” “intermediate” or “killed.” Mean correspondence between recorded and simulated class of winter survival was 75% and 37% for the locations in Sweden and Norway, respectively. Stress factors that were not accounted for in FROSTOL might explain the poorer accuracy at the Norwegian locations. The accuracy was poorest for cultivars with intermediate LT50c levels. When low temperature was the main cause of damage, as at the Swedish locations, the model accuracy was satisfying.
Changing regional weather-crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012
Trnka, M. ; Olesen, J.E. ; Kersebaum, K.C. ; Rötter, R.P. ; Brázdil, R. ; Eitzinger, J. ; Janssen, Sander ; Skjelvåg, A.O. ; Peltonen-Sainio, P. ; Hlavinka, P. ; Balek, J. ; Eckersten, H. ; Gobin, A. ; Vučeti, V. ; Marta, A. Dalla; Orlandini, S. ; Alexandrov, V. ; Semerádová, D. ; Štěpánek, P. ; Svobodová, E. ; Rajdl, K. - \ 2016
Climate Research 70 (2016)2. - ISSN 0936-577X - p. 195 - 214.
Barley - Climatic trend - Drought - Europe - Weather-crop yield relationship - Wheat - Yield trend

Europe is, after Asia, the second largest producer of wheat in the world, and provides the largest share of barley. Wheat (and to a similar extent, barley) production in Europe increased by more than 6-fold during the 20th century. During the first half of the 20th century, this was driven by expanding the harvested area. This was followed, from the mid-20th century, by a massive increase in productivity that in many regions has stalled since 2000. However, it remains unclear what role climatic factors have played in these changes. Understanding the net impact of climatic trends over the past century would also aid in our understanding of the potential impact of future climate changes and in assessments of the potential for adaptation across Europe. In this study, we compiled information from several sources on winter wheat and spring barley yields and climatological data from 12 countries/regions covering the period from 1901-2012. The studied area includes the majority of climatic regions in which wheat and barley are grown (from central Italy to Finland). We hypothesized that changes in climatic conditions have led to measurable shifts in climate-yield relationships over the past 112 yr, and that presently grown wheat and barley show a more pronounced response to adverse weather conditions compared to crops from the early 20th century. The results confirm that climate-yield relationships have changed significantly over the period studied, and that in some regions, different predictors have had a greater effect on yields in recent times (between 1991 and 2012) than in previous decades. It is likely that changes in the climate-yield relationship at the local level might be more pronounced than those across the relatively large regions used in this study, as the latter represents aggregations of yields from various agroclimatic and pedoclimatic conditions that may show opposing trends.

Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables
Zhao, Gang ; Hoffmann, Holger ; Bussel, L.G.J. Van; Enders, Andreas ; Specka, Xenia ; Sosa, Carmen ; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh ; Tao, Fulu ; Constantin, Julie ; Raynal, Helene ; Teixeira, Edmar ; Grosz, Balázs ; Doro, Luca ; Zhao, Zhigan ; Nendel, Claas ; Kiese, Ralf ; Eckersten, Henrik ; Haas, Edwin ; Vanuytrecht, Eline ; Wang, Enli ; Kuhnert, Matthias ; Trombi, Giacomo ; Moriondo, Marco ; Bindi, Marco ; Lewan, Elisabet ; Bach, Michaela ; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian ; Rötter, Reimund ; Roggero, Pier Paolo ; Wallach, Daniel ; Cammarano, Davide ; Asseng, Senthold ; Krauss, Gunther ; Siebert, Stefan - \ 2015
Climate Research 65 (2015). - ISSN 0936-577X - p. 141 - 157.
Crop model - Data aggregation - Model comparison - Scaling - Spatial heterogeneity - Spatial resolution

We assessed the weather data aggregation effect (DAE) on the simulation of cropping systems for different crops, response variables, and production conditions. Using 13 processbased crop models and the ensemble mean, we simulated 30 yr continuous cropping systems for 2 crops (winter wheat and silage maize) under 3 production conditions for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The DAE was evaluated for 5 weather data resolutions (i.e. 1, 10, 25, 50, and 100 km) for 3 response variables including yield, growing season evapotranspiration, and water use efficiency. Five metrics, viz. The spatial bias (Δ), average absolute deviation (AAD), relative AAD, root mean squared error (RMSE), and relative RMSE, were used to evaluate the DAE on both the input weather data and simulated results. For weather data, we found that data aggregation narrowed the spatial variability but widened the Δ, especially across mountainous areas. The DAE on loss of spatial heterogeneity and hotspots was stronger than on the average changes over the region. The DAE increased when coarsening the spatial resolution of the input weather data. The DAE varied considerably across different models, but changed only slightly for different production conditions and crops. We conclude that if spatially detailed information is essential for local management decision, higher resolution is desirable to adequately capture the spatial variability for heterogeneous regions. The required resolution depends on the choice of the model as well as the environmental condition of the study area.

Coincidence of variation in yield and climate in Europe
Peltonen-Sainio, P. ; Jauhiainen, L. ; Trnka, M. ; Olesen, J.E. ; Calanca, P. ; Eckersten, H. ; Eitzinger, J. ; Gobin, A. ; Kersebaum, K.C. ; Kozyra, J. ; Kumar, S. ; Marta, A. Dalla; Micale, F. ; Schaap, B.F. ; Seguin, B. ; Skjelvag, A.O. ; Orlandini, S. - \ 2010
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 139 (2010)4. - ISSN 0167-8809 - p. 483 - 489.
gewasopbrengst - veldgewassen - weer - agrometeorologie - europa - crop yield - field crops - weather - agricultural meteorology - europe - high-temperature - grain-growth - drought - barley - crops - variability - quality - key
We aimed to characterise the coincidence of yield variations with weather variables for major field crops using long-term datasets and reveal whether there are commonalities across the European agricultural regions. Long-term national and/or regional yield datasets were used from 14 European countries (total of 25 regions). Crops studied were spring and winter barley and wheat, winter oilseed rape, potato and sugar beet. Relative yield deviations were determined for all crops. Meteorological data on monthly means for temperature variables, solar radiation, accumulated precipitation and evapotranspiration were provided for the relevant agricultural regions of each country for 1975-2008. Harmful effects of high precipitation during grain-filling in grain and seed crops and at flowering in oilseed rape were recorded. In potato reduced precipitation at tuber formation was associated with yield penalties. Elevated temperatures had harmful effects for cereals and rapeseed yields.
Comparison of wheat simulation models under climate change. I. Model calibration and sensitivity analyses.
Wolf, J. ; Evans, L.G. ; Semenov, M.A. ; Eckersten, H. ; Iglesias, A. - \ 1996
Climate Research 7 (1996). - ISSN 0936-577X - p. 253 - 270.
Comparison of wheat simulation models under climate change. II. Application of climate change scenarios.
Semenov, M.A. ; Wolf, J. ; Evans, L.G. ; Eckersten, H. ; Iglesias, A. - \ 1996
Climate Research 7 (1996). - ISSN 0936-577X - p. 271 - 281.
Effects on winter wheat: a comparison of five models.
Wolf, J. ; Semenov, M.A. ; Eckersten, H. ; Evans, L.G. ; Iglesias, A. ; Porter, J.R. - \ 1995
In: Climate change and agriculture. Assessment of impacts and adaptations / Harrison, P.A., - p. 231 - 280.
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