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Actual European forest management by region, tree species and owner based on 714,000 re-measured trees in national forest inventories
Schelhaas, Mart-Jan ; Fridman, Jonas ; Hengeveld, Geerten M. ; Henttonen, Helena M. ; Lehtonen, Aleksi ; Kies, Uwe ; Krajnc, Nike ; Lerink, Bas ; Ní Dhubháin, Áine ; Polley, Heino ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. ; Redmond, John J. ; Rohner, Brigitte ; Temperli, Cristian ; Vayreda, Jordi ; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan ; Hanewinkel, Marc - \ 2018
PLoS ONE 13 (2018)11. - ISSN 1932-6203
European forests have a long record of management. However, the diversity of the current forest management across nations, tree species and owners, is hardly understood. Often when trying to simulate future forest resources under alternative futures, simply the yield table style of harvesting is applied. It is now crucially important to come to grips with actual forest management, now that demand for wood is increasing and the EU Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Regulation has been adopted requiring ‘continuation of current management practices’ as a baseline to set the Forest Reference Level carbon sink.
Based on a large dataset of 714,000 re-measured trees in National Forest inventories from 13 regions, we are now able to analyse actual forest harvesting.
From this large set of repeated tree measurements we can conclude that there is no such thing as yield table harvesting in Europe. We found general trends of increasing harvest probability with higher productivity of the region and the species, but with important deviations related to local conditions like site accessibility, state of the forest resource (like age), specific subsidies, importance of other forest services, and ownership of the forest. As a result, we find a huge diversity in harvest regimes. Over the time period covered in our inventories, the average harvest probability over all regions was 2.4% yr-1 (in number of trees) and the mortality probability was 0.4% yr-1. Our study provides underlying and most actual data that can serve as a basis for quantifying ‘continuation of current forest management’. It can be used as a cornerstone for the base period as required for the Forest Reference Level for EU Member States.
Multi-functionality and sustainability in the European Union's forests
Aszalós, Réka ; Ceulemans, Reinhart J.M. ; Glatzel, Gerhard ; Hanewinkel, Marc ; Kakaras, Emmanuel ; Kotiaho, Janne ; Lindroth, Anders ; Lubica, Ditmarová ; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan ; Mackay, John ; Marek, Michal V. ; Morgante, Michele ; Nabuurs, G.J. ; Ovaskainen, Otso ; Pais, Maria Salomé ; Schaub, Marcus ; Tahvonen, Olli ; Vesala, Timo ; Gillett, William ; Norton, Michael - \ 2017
Halle, Germany : (EASAC policy report 32) - ISBN 9783804737280 - 43 p.
How can forest-based bioeconomy contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation
Lindner, Marcus ; Hanewinkel, Marc ; Nabuurs, G.J. - \ 2017
In: Towards a sustainable European forest-based bioeconomy / Winkel, Georg, European Forest Institute (What Science can tell us 8) - ISBN 9789525982417 - p. 77 - 85.
A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change
Yousefpour, Rasoul ; Temperli, Christian ; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl ; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark ; Meilby, Henrik ; Lexer, Manfred J. ; Lindner, Marcus ; Bugmann, Harald ; Borges, Jose G. ; Palma, João H.N. ; Ray, Duncan ; Zimmermann, Niklaus E. ; Delzon, Sylvain ; Kremer, Antoine ; Kramer, Koen ; Reyer, Christopher P.O. ; Lasch-Born, Petra ; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi ; Hanewinkel, Marc - \ 2017
Ecology and Society 22 (2017)4. - ISSN 1708-3087
Behavioral adaptation - Europe - Forest management - Knowledge management - Mathematical programming - Process-based models - Spatial planning
Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.
By 2050 the mitigation effects of EU forests could nearly double through climate smart forestry
Nabuurs, Gert Jan ; Delacote, Philippe ; Ellison, David ; Hanewinkel, Marc ; Hetemäki, Lauri ; Lindner, Marcus ; Ollikainen, Markku - \ 2017
Forests 8 (2017)12. - ISSN 1999-4907
Bio-energy - Carbon sequestration - Climate smart forestry - European forests - Harvested wood products
In July 2016, the European Commission (EC) published a legislative proposal for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals due to Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) into its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The Climate and Energy Framework aims at a total emission reduction of 40% by 2030 for all sectors together as part of the Paris Agreement. The LULUCF proposal regulates a "no debit" target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils), and regulates the accounting of any additional mitigation potential that might be expected of it. We find that the forest share of the LULUCF sector can achieve much more than what is in the regulation now. We elaborate a strategy for unlocking European Union (EU) forests and forest sector potential based on the concept of "climate smart forestry" (CSF). We find that to-date, European policy has not firmly integrated forest potential into the EU climate policy framework. Nor have climate objectives been firmly integrated into those of the forest and forest sector at either the EU or national level. Yet a wide range of measures can be applied to provide positive incentives for more firmly integrating these climate objectives into the forest and forest sector framework. With the right set of incentives in place at EU and Member States levels, we find the current literature supports the view that the EU has the potential to achieve an additional combined mitigation impact through CSF of 441 Mt CO2/year by 2050. In addition, CSF, through reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting and building forest resilience, and sustainably increasing forest productivity and incomes, tackles multiple policy goals.
Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?
Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver ; Bathgate, Stephan ; Blennow, K. ; Borges, J.G. ; Bugmann, Harald ; Delzon, Sylvain ; Faias, Sonia P. ; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi ; Gardiner, Barry ; Gonzalez-Olabarria, J.R. ; Gracia, Carlos ; Guerra Hernandez, Jordi ; Kellomaki, Seppo ; Kramer, K. ; Lexer, M.J. ; Lindner, Marcus ; Maaten, Ernest van der; Maroschek, M. ; Muys, Bart ; Nicoll, B. ; Palahi, M. ; Palma, J.H.N. ; Paulo, Joana A. ; Peltola, H. ; Pukkala, T. ; Rammer, W. ; Ray, D. ; Sabaté, S. ; Schelhaas, M. ; Seidl, R. ; Temperli, Christian ; Tomé, Margarida ; Yousefpour, R. ; Zimmerman, N.E. ; Hanewinkel, Marc - \ 2017
Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017)3. - ISSN 1748-9326
Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
Models for adaptive forest management
Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver ; Bugmann, Harald ; Nabuurs, Gert Jan ; Hanewinkel, Marc - \ 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15 (2015)8. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 1483 - 1487.
A new role for forests and the forest sector in the EU post-2020 climate targets
Nabuurs, G.J. ; Delacote, Philippe ; Ellison, David ; Hanewinkel, Marc ; Lindner, Marcus ; Nesbit, Martin ; Ollikainen, Markku ; Savaresi, Annalisa - \ 2015
European Forest Institute (From Science to Policy 2) - ISBN 9789525980202 - 30 p.
forestry - environmental policy - land use - european union - carbon sequestration - forests - biomass production - biobased economy - bosbouw - milieubeleid - landgebruik - europese unie - koolstofvastlegging - bossen - biomassa productie
We are living in a time of accelerated changes and unprecedented global challenges: energy security, natural resource scarcity, biodiversity loss, fossil-resource dependence and climate change. Yet the challenges also demand new solutions and offer new opportunities. The cross-cutting nature of forests and the forest-based sector provides a strong basis to address these interconnected societal challenges, while supporting the development of a European bioeconomy. The |European Forest Institue is an unbiased, science-based international organisation that provides the best forest science knowledge and information for better informed policy making. EFI provides support for decision-takers, policy makers and institutions, bringing together cross-boundery scientific knowledge and expertise to strengthen science-policy dialogue.
Alternative forest management strategies to account for climate change-induced productivity and species suitability changes in Europe
Schelhaas, M.J. ; Nabuurs, G.J. ; Hengeveld, G.M. ; Reyer, C. ; Hanewinkel, M. ; Zimmermann, N.E. ; Cullmann, D. - \ 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15 (2015)8. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 1581 - 1594.
We present for the first time a study on alternative forest management at the European scale to account for climate change impacts. We combine insights into detailed studies at high resolution with the actual status of the forest and a realistic estimate of the current management practices at large scale. Results show that the European forest system is very inert and that it takes a long time to influence the species distribution by replacing species after final felling. By 2070, on average about 36 % of the area expected to have decreased species suitability will have changed species following business as usual management. Alternative management, consisting of shorter rotations for those species and species planting based on expected trends, will have increased this species transition to 40 %. The simulated forward-looking alternative management leads to some reduction in increment, but does not influence the amount of wood removed from the forest. Northern Europe is projected to show the highest production increases under climate change and can also adapt faster to the new (proposed) species distribution. Southwest Europe is expected to face the greatest challenge by a combination of a predicted loss of production and a slow rate of management alteration under climate change.
How fast can European forests adapt to climate change?
Nabuurs, G.J. ; Hengeveld, G.M. ; Schelhaas, M. ; Reyer, C. ; Hanewinkel, M. - \ 2014
In: Proceedings of the XXIV IUFRO World Congress: Sustaining forests, sustaining people: the role of research. - - p. 219 - 219.
The large diversity in abiotic and biotic circumstances in European forests makes it extremely diffi cult to predict what the impacts of climate change will be on the various tree species, and ecosystems at the various localities. This makes it even more diffi cult to analyze how forest management should adapt. The case studies in EU Motive-project provide, however, a basis for upscaling to the European scale. For the fi rst time we combine species changes as predicted by a climate envelop model with an incorporation of forest management responses in an empirical European forest resource model (EFISCEN). It is assumed that only then a forest owner will decide to change tree species at that site towards one that is more preferred according to the climate envelop model. The results indicate that tree species composition will change only slowly at the European scale. By 2070, 10% of the total forest area will have changed species.
Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?
Lindner, M. ; Fitzgerald, J.B. ; Zimmermann, N.E. ; Reyer, C. ; Delzon, S. ; Maaten, E. van der; Schelhaas, M. ; Lasch, P. ; Eggers, J. ; Maaten-Theunissen, M. van der; Suckow, F. ; Psomas, A. ; Pouler, B. ; Hanewinkel, M. - \ 2014
Journal of Environmental Management 146 (2014). - ISSN 0301-4797 - p. 69 - 83.
water-use efficiency - change impacts - elevated co2 - change risks - face sites - scots pine - drought - carbon - shift - trees
The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support.
Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value European forest land
Hanewinkel, M. ; Cullman, D.A. ; Schelhaas, M.J. ; Nabuurs, G.J. ; Zimmerman, N. - \ 2013
Nature Climate Change 3 (2013). - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 203 - 207.
change impacts - tree
European forests, covering more than 2¿million¿km2 or 32% of the land surface1, are to a large extent intensively managed and support an important timber industry. Climate change is expected to strongly affect tree species distribution within these forests2, 3. Climate and land use are undergoing rapid changes at present4, with initial range shifts already visible5. However, discussions on the consequences of biome shifts have concentrated on ecological issues6. Here we show that forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation may have severe economic consequences. On the basis of our model results, the expected value of European forest land will decrease owing to the decline of economically valuable species in the absence of effective countermeasures. We found that by 2100—depending on the interest rate and climate scenario applied—this loss varies between 14 and 50% (mean: 28% for an interest rate of 2%) of the present value of forest land in Europe, excluding Russia, and may total several hundred billion Euros. Our model shows that—depending on different realizations of three climate scenarios—by 2100, between 21 and 60% (mean: 34%) of European forest lands will be suitable only for a Mediterranean oak forest type with low economic returns for forest owners and the timber industry and reduced carbon sequestration.