Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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A Global Analysis of Future Water Deficit Based On Different Allocation Mechanisms
Bijl, David L. ; Biemans, Hester ; Bogaart, Patrick W. ; Dekker, Stefan C. ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
Water Resources Research 54 (2018)8. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 5803 - 5824.
integrated assessment model - irrigation - socioeconomic development - water demand - water scarcity - water-food-energy nexus

Freshwater scarcity is already an urgent problem in some areas but may increase significantly in the future. To assess future developments, we need to understand how future population growth, agricultural production patterns, energy use, economic development, and climate change may impact the global freshwater cycle. Integrated models provide opportunities for quantitative assessment. In this paper, we further integrate models of hydrology and economics, using the models IMAGE and LPJmL, with explicit accounting for (1) electricity, industry, and municipal and irrigation water use; (2) intersectoral water allocation rules at the 0.5° × 0.5°grid scale; and (3) withdrawal, consumption, and return flows. With the integration between hydrology and economy we are able to understand competition dynamics between the different freshwater users at the basin and grid scale. We run model projections for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), more efficient water use, and no expansion of irrigated areas to understand the competition dynamics of these different allocation mechanisms. We conclude that (1) global water withdrawal is projected to increase by 12% in SSP-1, 26% in SSP-2, and 29% in SSP-3 during 2010–2050; (2) water deficits (demand minus allocated water) for nonagricultural uses are small in 2010 but become significant around 2050; (3) interannual variability of precipitation results in variability of water deficits; (4) water use efficiency improvements reduce water withdrawal but have little impact on water deficits; and (5) priority rules at the local level have a large effect on water deficits, whereas limiting the expansion of irrigation has virtually no effect.

Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy
Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Havlík, Petr ; Valin, Hugo ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Kyle, Page ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Ochi, Yuki ; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio ; Stehfest, Elke ; Sulser, Timothy B. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Takakura, J. ; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Wiebe, Keith ; Witzke, Peter - \ 2018
Nature Climate Change 8 (2018)8. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 699 - 703.

Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions1–3. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities4–6. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
Meijl, Hans Van; Havlik, Petr ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Stehfest, Elke ; Witzke, Peter ; Domínguez, Ignacio P. ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Dijk, Michiel van; Doelman, Jonathan ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Müller, Christoph ; Popp, Alexander ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo ; Zeist, Willem J. van - \ 2018
Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018)6. - ISSN 1748-9318
adaptation - agriculture - climate change - economic models - mitigation - shared socioeconomic pathways

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model : Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation
Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van; Lassaletta, Luis ; Gernaat, David E.H.J. ; Neumann-Hermans, Kathleen ; Harmsen, Mathijs ; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Biemans, Hester ; Sluis, Sietske van der; Vuuren, Detlef P. van - \ 2018
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 48 (2018). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 119 - 135.
Bioenergy - Climate change mitigation - Integrated assessment - Land-use change - REDD - Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
Projected increases in population, income and consumption rates are expected to lead to rising pressure on the land system. Ambitions to limit global warming to 2 °C or even 1.5 °C could also lead to additional pressures from land-based mitigation measures such as bioenergy production and afforestation. To investigate these dynamics, this paper describes five elaborations of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework to produce regional and gridded scenarios up to the year 2100. Additionally, land-based climate change mitigation is modelled aiming for long-term mitigation targets including 1.5 °C. Results show diverging global trends in agricultural land in the baseline scenarios ranging from an expansion of nearly 826 Mha in SSP3 to a decrease of more than 305 Mha in SSP1 for the period 2010–2050. Key drivers are population growth, changes in food consumption, and agricultural efficiency. The largest changes take place in Sub-Saharan Africa in SSP3 and SSP4, predominantly due to high population growth. With low increases in agricultural efficiency this leads to expansion of agricultural land and reduced food security. Land use also plays a crucial role in ambitious mitigation scenarios. First, agricultural emissions could form a substantial component of emissions that cannot be fully mitigated. Second, bioenergy and reforestation are crucial to create net negative emissions reducing emissions in SSP2 in 2050 by 8.7 Gt CO2/yr and 1.9 Gt CO2/yr, respectively (1.5 °C scenario compared to baseline). This is achieved by expansion of bioenergy area (516 Mha in 2050) and reforestation. Expansion of agriculture for food production is reduced due to REDD policy (290 Mha in 2050) affecting food security especially in Sub-Saharan Africa indicating an important trade-off of land-based mitigation. This set of SSP land-use scenarios provides a comprehensive quantification of interacting trends in the land system, both socio-economic and biophysical. By providing high resolution data, the scenario output can improve interactions between climate research and impact studies.
Managing LUC‐induced GHG emissions and price impacts from bioenergy under different scenarios
Levin-Koopman, Jason ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Faaij, A. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Gerssen-Gondelach, S. ; Wicke, Birka - \ 2017
EU
Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 : AgCLIM50
Meijl, J.C.M. van; Havlík, Petr ; Lotze-Campen, H. ; Stehfest, E. ; Witzke, P. ; Pérez Domínguez, I. ; Bodirsky, B. ; Dijk, M. van; Doelman, J.C. ; Fellmann, T. ; Humpenoeder, F. ; Levin-Koopman, Jason ; Mueller, C. ; Popp, A. ; Tabeau, A.A. ; Valin, Hugo - \ 2017
JRC (JRC science for policy report ) - 70 p.
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Stehfest, Elke ; Gernaat, David E.H.J. ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Berg, Maarten van den; Harmsen, Mathijs ; Boer, Harmen Sytze de; Bouwman, Lex F. ; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. ; Girod, Bastien ; Kram, Tom ; Lassaletta, Luis ; Lucas, Paul L. ; Meijl, Hans van; Müller, Christoph ; Ruijven, Bas J. van; Sluis, Sietske van der; Tabeau, Andrzej - \ 2017
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 42 (2017). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 237 - 250.
Climate change research - Integrated assessment - Scenarios - Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - Sustainable development

This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 °C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 °C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals.

Exploring future changes in land use and land condition and the impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity : Scenarios for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook
Esch, Stefan van der; Brink, B. ten; Stehfest, Elke ; Bakkenes, Michel ; Sewell, Annelies ; Bouwman, A. ; Meijer, Johan ; Westhoek, Henk ; Berg, Maurits van den; Born, Gert Jan van den; Doelman, Jonathan ; Berkhout, Ezra ; Klein Goldewijk, Kees ; Bouwman, A.F. ; Beusen, Arthur ; Zeist, Willem-Jan van; Stoorvogel, J.J. ; Schut, A.G.T. ; Biemans, H. ; Candel, J.J.L. ; Beek, Rens Van; Tabeau, A.A. ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Caspari, T.M. ; Egmond, F.M. van; Lynden, G.W.J. van; Mantel, S. - \ 2017
The Hague : PBL: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - 116 p.
The pressure on land is growing in many regions of the world, due to the increasing demand for arable crops, meat and dairy products, bio-energy and timber, and is exacerbated by land degradation and climate change. This policy report provides scenario projections for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook, exploring future changes to the use and condition of land and the resulting impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity.
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Popp, Alexander ; Calvin, Katherine ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Stehfest, Elke ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Dietrich, Jan Philipp ; Doelmann, Jonathan C. ; Tabeau, Andrzej - \ 2017
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 42 (2017). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 331 - 345.
Emissions - Food prices - Integrated assessment - Land use - Mitigation - Scenarios - SSP

In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 810 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from -54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis.

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security
Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van; Overmars, Koen P. ; Stehfest, Elke - \ 2017
Food Policy 66 (2017). - ISSN 0306-9192 - p. 73 - 87.
Agricultural prices and production - Deforestation - Food security - Land supply - REDD - Scenarios

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
Alexander, Peter ; Prestele, Reinhard ; Verburg, Peter H. ; Arneth, Almut ; Baranzelli, Claudia ; Batista e Silva, Filipe ; Brown, Calum ; Butler, Adam ; Calvin, Katherine ; Dendoncker, Nicolas ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Dunford, Robert ; Engström, Kerstin ; Eitelberg, David ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Harrison, Paula A. ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr ; Holzhauer, Sascha ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris ; Jain, Atul K. ; Krisztin, Tamás ; Kyle, Page ; Lavalle, Carlo ; Lenton, Tim ; Liu, Jiayi ; Meiyappan, Prasanth ; Popp, Alexander ; Powell, Tom ; Sands, Ronald D. ; Schaldach, Rüdiger ; Stehfest, Elke ; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van; Wise, Marshall A. ; Rounsevell, Mark D.A. - \ 2017
Global Change Biology 23 (2017)2. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 767 - 781.
Cropland - Land cover - Land use - Model inter-comparison - Uncertainty

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.

Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2 °C target
Wollenberg, Eva ; Richards, Meryl ; Smith, Pete ; Havlík, Petr ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Tubiello, Francesco N. ; Herold, Martin ; Gerber, Pierre ; Carter, Sarah ; Reisinger, Andrew ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Dickie, Amy ; Neufeldt, Henry ; Sander, Björn O. ; Wassmann, Reiner ; Sommer, Rolf ; Amonette, James E. ; Falcucci, Alessandra ; Herrero, Mario ; Opio, Carolyn ; Roman-cuesta, Rosa Maria ; Stehfest, Elke ; Westhoek, Henk ; Ortiz-Monasterio, Ivan ; Sapkota, Tek ; Rufino, Mariana C. ; Thornton, Philip K. ; Verchot, Louis V. ; West, Paul C. ; Soussana, Jean-François ; Baedeker, Tobias ; Sadler, Marc ; Vermeulen, Sonja ; Campbell, Bruce M. - \ 2016
Global Change Biology 22 (2016)12. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 3859 - 3864.
More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit.
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
Riahi, Keywan ; Vuuren, Detlef P. Van; Kriegler, Elmar ; Edmonds, Jae ; O’neill, Brian C. ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Bauer, Nico ; Calvin, Katherine ; Dellink, Rob ; Fricko, Oliver ; Lutz, Wolfgang ; Popp, Alexander ; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo ; KC, Samir ; Leimbach, Marian ; Jiang, Leiwen ; Kram, Tom ; Rao, Shilpa ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Ebi, Kristie ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Silva, Lara Aleluia Da; Smith, Steve ; Stehfest, Elke ; Bosetti, Valentina ; Eom, Jiyong ; Gernaat, David ; Masui, Toshihiko ; Rogelj, Joeri ; Strefler, Jessica ; Drouet, Laurent ; Krey, Volker ; Luderer, Gunnar ; Harmsen, Mathijs ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Baumstark, Lavinia ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Kainuma, Mikiko ; Klimont, Zbigniew ; Marangoni, Giacomo ; Lotze-campen, Hermann ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Tavoni, Massimo - \ 2016
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 42 (2016). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 153 - 168.
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).
Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector
Herrero, Mario ; Henderson, Benjamin ; Havlík, Petr ; Thornton, Philip K. ; Conant, Richard T. ; Smith, Pete ; Wirsenius, Stefan ; Hristov, Alexander N. ; Gerber, P.J. ; Gill, Margaret ; Butterbach-bahl, Klaus ; Valin, Hugo ; Garnett, Tara ; Stehfest, Elke - \ 2016
Nature Climate Change 6 (2016)5. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 452 - 461.
The livestock sector supports about 1.3 billion producers and retailers, and contributes 40–50% of agricultural GDP. We estimated that between 1995 and 2005, the livestock sector was responsible for greenhouse gas emissions of 5.6–7.5 GtCO2e yr–1. Livestock accounts for up to half of the technical mitigation potential of the agriculture, forestry and land-use sectors, through management options that sustainably intensify livestock production, promote carbon sequestration in rangelands and reduce emissions from manures, and through reductions in the demand for livestock products. The economic potential of these management alternatives is less than 10% of what is technically possible because of adoption constraints, costs and numerous trade-offs. The mitigation potential of reductions in livestock product consumption is large, but their economic potential is unknown at present. More research and investment are needed to increase the affordability and adoption of mitigation practices, to moderate consumption of livestock products where appropriate, and to avoid negative impacts on livelihoods, economic activities and the environment
Hotspots of uncertainty in land use and land cover change projections: a global scale model comparison
Prestele, Reinhard ; Alexander, Peter ; Rounsevell, Mark ; Arneth, Almut ; Calvin, Katherine ; Doelman, Jonathan ; Eitelberg, David ; Engström, Kerstin ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Jain, Atul K. ; Krisztin, Tamás ; Kyle, Page ; Meiyappan, Prasanth ; Popp, Alexander ; Sands, Ronald D. ; Schaldach, Rüdiger ; Schüngel, Jan ; Stehfest, Elke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van; Vliet, Jasper van; Verburg, Peter H. - \ 2016
Global Change Biology 22 (2016)12. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 3967 - 3983.
Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process, storylines and quantification of drivers
Dijk, M. van; Mandryk, M. ; Gramberger, M. ; Laborde, D. ; Shutes, L.J. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Valin, H. ; Zellmer, K. - \ 2016
LEI Wageningen UR (FOODSECURE Working paper 38) - 25 p.
REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security
Tabeau, A.A. ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Overmars, K.P. ; Stehfest, Elke - \ 2015
- 29 p.
The REDD policy which preserves, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness, agricultural prices, trade, production and food security the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.5%.
Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives by 2050 : Explorations using the IMAGE integrated assessment model
Vuuren, D.P. van; Kok, Marcel ; Lucas, P.L. ; Prins, Anne Gerdien ; Alkemade, Rob ; Berg, Maurits van den; Bouwman, Lex ; Esch, Stefan van der; Jeuken, Michel ; Kram, Tom ; Stehfest, Elke - \ 2015
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98 (2015). - ISSN 0040-1625 - p. 303 - 323.
Global change - Integrated assessment - Modelling - Sustainable development

In 2012, governments worldwide renewed their commitments to a more sustainable development that would eradicate poverty, halt climate change and conserve ecosystems, and initiated a process to create a long-term vision by formulating Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although progress in achieving a more sustainable development has been made in some areas, overall, actions have not been able to bend the trend in critical areas (including those related to the so-called food-water-energy nexus). Here, we analyze how different combinations of technological measures and behavioral changes could contribute to achieving a set of sustainability objectives, taking into account the interlinkages between them. The objectives include eradicating hunger, providing universal access to modern energy, preventing dangerous climate change, conserving biodiversity and controlling air pollution. The analysis identifies different pathways that achieve these objectives simultaneously, but they all require substantial transformations in the energy and food systems, that go far beyond historic progress and currently formulated policies. The analysis also shows synergies and trade-offs between achieving the different objectives, concluding that achieving them requires a comprehensive approach. The scenario analysis does not point at a fundamental trade-off between the objectives related to poverty eradication and those related to environmental sustainability. The different pathways of achieving the set of long-term objectives and their implications for short-term action can contribute to building a comprehensive strategy to meet the SDGs by proposing near-term actions.

Global impacts of surface ozone changes on crop yields and land use
Chuwah, C.D. ; Noije, Twan van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Stehfest, Elke ; Hazeleger, Wilco - \ 2015
Atmospheric Environment 106 (2015). - ISSN 1352-2310 - p. 11 - 23.
Air pollution control - Climate change mitigation - Emission scenarios - Land use change - Ozone crop damage

Exposure to surface ozone has detrimental impacts on vegetation and crop yields. In this study, we estimate ozone impacts on crop production and subsequent impacts on land use in the 2005-2050 period using results of the TM5 atmospheric chemistry and IMAGE integrated assessment model. For the crops represented in IMAGE, we compute relative yield losses based on published exposure-response functions. We examine scenarios with either constant or declining emission factors in a weak climate policy future (radiative forcing target of 6.0W/m2 at the end of the century), as well as co-benefits of stringent climate policy (targeted at 2.6W/m2). Without a large decrease in air pollutant emissions, higher ozone concentrations could lead to an increase in crop damage of up to 20% locally in 2050 compared to the situation in which the changes in ozone are not accounted for. This may lead to a 2.5% global increase in crop area, and a regional increase of 8.9% in Asia. Implementation of air pollution policies could limit crop yield losses due to ozone to maximally 10% in 2050 in the most affected regions. Similar effects can be obtained as a result of co-benefits from climate policy (reducing ozone precursor emissions). We also evaluated the impact of the corresponding land-use changes on the carbon cycle. Under the worst-case scenario analysed in this study, future ozone increases are estimated to increase the cumulative net CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2050 by about 3.7PgC, which corresponds to about 10% of baseline land use emissions over the same period.

Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale
Bussel, L.G.J. van; Stehfest, E. ; Siebert, S. ; Müller, C. ; Ewert, F. - \ 2015
Global Ecology and Biogeography 24 (2015)9. - ISSN 1466-822X - p. 1018 - 1029.
climate-change - winter-wheat - annual crops - photoperiod sensitivity - geographical variation - temperature - responses - adaptation - cultivars - model
To derive location-specific parameters that reflect the geographic differences among cultivars in vernalization requirements, sensitivity to day length (photoperiod) and temperature, which can be used to simulate the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. Location: Global. Methods: Based on crop calendar observations and literature describing the large-scale patterns of phenological characteristics of cultivars, we developed algorithms to compute location-specific parameters to represent this large-scale pattern. Vernalization requirements were related to the duration and coldness of winter, sensitivity to day length was assumed to be represented by the minimum and maximum day lengths occurring at a location, and sensitivity to temperature was related to temperature conditions during the vegetative development phase of the crop. Results: Application of the derived location-specific parameters resulted in high agreement between simulated and observed lengths of the cropping period. Agreement was especially high for wheat, with mean absolute errors of less than 3 weeks. In the main maize cropping regions, cropping periods were over- and underestimated by 0.5-1.5 months. We also found that interannual variability in simulated wheat harvest dates was more realistic when accounting for photoperiod effects. Main conclusions: The methodology presented here provides a good basis for modelling the phenological characteristics of cultivars at the global scale. We show that current global patterns of growing season length as described in cropping calendars can be largely reproduced by phenology models if location-specific parameters are derived from temperature and day length indicators. Growing seasons can be modelled more accurately for wheat than for maize, especially in warm regions. Our method for computing parameters for phenology models from temperature and day length offers opportunities to improve the simulation of crop productivity by crop simulation models developed for large spatial areas and for long-term climate impact projections that account for adaptation in the selection of varieties.
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