2026-06-10T01:03:25+02:00 https://library.wur.nl/oai

oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/406442 2026-03-31

urn:nbn:nl:ui:32-406442 2026-03-31 urn:nbn:nl:ui:32-406442/mods Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use models van Vliet J. 353468819 0000000419545457 aut Bregt A.K. 07412613X 0000-0001-5797-7208 0000000398484105 aut Hagen-Zanker A. aut text info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2011 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.01.017 2-s2.0-79953027902 000289827500004 en Land-use change models are typically calibrated to reproduce known historic changes. Calibration results can then be assessed by comparing two datasets: the simulated land-use map and the actual land-use map at the same time. A common method for this is the Kappa statistic, which expresses the agreement between two categorical datasets corrected for the expected agreement. This expected agreement is based on a stochastic model of random allocation given the distribution of class sizes. However, when a model starts from an initial land-use map and makes changes to it, that stochastic model does not pose a meaningful reference level. This paper introduces KSimulation, a statistic that is identical in form to the Kappa statistic but instead applies a more appropriate stochastic model of random allocation of class transitions relative to the initial map. The new method is illustrated on a simple example and then the results of the Kappa statistic and KSimulation are compared using the results of a land-use model. It is found that only KSimulation truly tests models in their capacity to explain land-use changes over time, and unlike Kappa it does not inflate results for simulations where little change takes place over time. Wageningen Environmental Research PE&RC Centre Geo-information Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing cover landscape maps performance skill spatial simulation-models validation Wageningen Environmental Research PE&RC Alterra - Centrum Geo-informatie Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing Ecological Modelling 222 8 1367 1375 03043800 urn:nbn:nl:ui:32-406442/obj 2026-03-31 http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/RestrictedAccess