2024-03-28T13:48:29+01:00 https://library.wur.nl/oai
oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/409112 2024-03-11 edurep openaire public
urn:nbn:nl:ui:32-409112 2024-03-11 urn:nbn:nl:ui:32-409112/mods Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands Schaap B.F. 339126906 0000-0003-2877-8597 000000039075879X aut Blom M. 075051788 0000000392847112 aut Hermans C.M.L. 074350587 0000000397132626 aut Meerburg B.G. 295850752 0000-0001-7491-4022 0000000050792334 aut Verhagen A. 16253888X 0000-0001-8408-0543 0000000117456731 aut text info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2011 10.1007/s10113-011-0205-1 80051973865 000294058800023 en Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities. We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055); the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield Wageningen Environmental Research CL - Rural Dynamics Research Land Use and Food Security arable farming climate adaptation climatic change crop crop production farm management land-use north netherlands potato potential impacts productivity resistance risk assessment scenarios seed potatoes temperature us agriculture winter wheat winter-wheat Wageningen Environmental Research CL - Dynamiek Ruimtegebruik Onderzoek Landgebruik en Voedselzekerheid agrarische bedrijfsvoering akkerbouw gewasproductie klimaatadaptatie klimaatverandering noord-nederland pootaardappelen risicoschatting wintertarwe Regional Environmental Change 11 3 731 741 14363798 urn:nbn:nl:ui:32-409112/obj 2024-03-11 http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/OpenAccess