2024-03-28T13:48:29+01:00
https://library.wur.nl/oai
oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs/409112
2024-03-11
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urn:nbn:nl:ui:32-409112
2024-03-11
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Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands
Schaap
B.F.
339126906
0000-0003-2877-8597
000000039075879X
aut
Blom
M.
075051788
0000000392847112
aut
Hermans
C.M.L.
074350587
0000000397132626
aut
Meerburg
B.G.
295850752
0000-0001-7491-4022
0000000050792334
aut
Verhagen
A.
16253888X
0000-0001-8408-0543
0000000117456731
aut
text
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
2011
10.1007/s10113-011-0205-1
80051973865
000294058800023
en
Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities. We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055); the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield
Wageningen Environmental Research
CL - Rural Dynamics
Research
Land Use and Food Security
arable farming
climate adaptation
climatic change
crop
crop production
farm management
land-use
north netherlands
potato
potential impacts
productivity
resistance
risk assessment
scenarios
seed potatoes
temperature
us agriculture
winter wheat
winter-wheat
Wageningen Environmental Research
CL - Dynamiek Ruimtegebruik
Onderzoek
Landgebruik en Voedselzekerheid
agrarische bedrijfsvoering
akkerbouw
gewasproductie
klimaatadaptatie
klimaatverandering
noord-nederland
pootaardappelen
risicoschatting
wintertarwe
Regional Environmental Change
11
3
731
741
14363798
urn:nbn:nl:ui:32-409112/obj
2024-03-11
http://purl.org/eprint/accessRights/OpenAccess