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Record nummer 1906040
Titel The development of vulnerability to flooding: an analysis of future change in expected loss of life in South Holland (Netherlands)
toon extra info.
authors: Bob Maaskant, Bas Jonkman, Laurens M. Bouwer
Auteur(s) Maaskant, B. ; Jonkman, B. ; Bouwer, L.M.
Uitgever [S.l.] : [s.n.]
Jaar van uitgave 2008
Pagina's 34 p
Annotatie(s) Project Aandacht voor Veiligheid, AVV
Online full text
Trefwoorden (cab) populatiegroei / overstromingen / risicoschatting / zuid-holland / toekomst
Rubrieken Waterbeheer (algemeen)
Publicatie type Boek
Taal Engels
Toelichting (Engels) In this report the temporal development of flood risks to people has been examined for a major flood prone area in the Netherlands. Analyses have been made for the area South Holland with 3.6 million inhabitants based on simulations of different flood scenarios, projections of the spatial distribution of population growth and a loss of life model. Taking into account increasing probability of flooding, the expected number of fatalities per year could quadruple by 2040. The results have been compared with other studies that provide estimates of the future flood risks based on simple population growth percentages. It is found that taking account of the spatial distribution of population growth is essential for arriving at reliable estimates of the development of risks in the future. This allows the identification of the impacts of local development and changes in flood conditions on the expected number of fatalities.
Betrokken instanties Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM)
Technische Universiteit Delft, Faculteit der Civiele Techniek, Afdeling Waterbouwkunde en Geotechniek
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