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Record nummer 2049482
Titel artikel Practical derivation of operational dike failure probabilities
Auteur(s) Wojciechowska, K. ; Kok, M.
Tijdschrifttitel Reliability engineering & system safety
Deel(Jaar)Nummer 113(2013)5
Paginering 122 - 130
Online full text
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Trefwoorden (cab) dijken / kwaliteit / risicoschatting
Rubrieken Waterbouwkunde
Publicatie type Artikel
Taal Engels
Toelichting (Engels) Probability forecasts for natural loads, such as river discharge or wind speed, allow deriving predictive dike failure probabilities within a future time interval, the so-called operational dike failure probabilities. The operational dike failure probabilities can be used to assess the safety of dikes and can support decision making in the face of flooding. In this article, a practical framework for deriving the operational dike failure probabilities is introduced. The framework is based on a presently applied technique that is used to estimate the annual dike failure probabilities in the Netherlands. The framework is applied to a dike located in the delta of the river Vecht, providing probability forecasts for water levels and waves at the dike and the operational dike failure probabilities. Several aspects of the framework are also analysed, giving insight into the properties and accuracy of the method.
Betrokken instanties HKV Lijn in Water
Technische Universiteit Delft, Faculteit der Civiele Techniek, Afdeling Waterbouwkunde en Geotechniek
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