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Hydrotheek

Record nummer 2058218
Titel artikel Simulating flood-peak probability in the Rhine basin and the effect of climate change
Bron Proceedings conference FloodRisk, Oxford, 30 September-2 October 2008
Auteur(s) Linde, A.H. te ; Aerts, J.C.J.H.
Deel(Jaar)Nummer (2008)
Online full text
Trefwoorden (cab) neerslag / overstromingen / risicoschatting / modellen / klimaatverandering
Rubrieken Klimaatverandering / Hydrologie
Publicatie type Congresverslag
Taal Engels
Toelichting (Engels) Impacts of land use change, flood defence measures and climate change on peak discharges are studied at different scales in the Rhine basin. Few studies, though, have studied the combined effect of these variables in scenarios and how these scenarios change the return period of flood peaks. Also, it is recognized that uncertainty is inevitable when performing flood risk analysis within climate change scenario studies. In the current paper we introduce a method to combine simulations of the effect of upstream flooding and climate change on flood-peak probability. We argue that in the Rhine basin, both statistical extrapolation and the assumption of no upstream flooding introduce large uncertainties when estimating (future) flood-peak probabilities
Betrokken instanties Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM)
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