Record nummer 2204945
Titel artikel Adaptation with small steps or a big step? : a probabilistic approach of flood risk reduction in the Dutch Delta
Bron Risk, reliability and safety: innovating theory and practice
Auteur(s) Dokter, J. ; Botterhuis, T. ; Kok, M. ; Waveren, H. van
Deel(Jaar)Nummer (2016)
Online full text
Publicatie type Hoofdstuk uit boek
Taal Engels
Toelichting (Engels) In view of expected socio-economic development of the Dutch Delta it has recently be decided to update the safety standards, in terms of a maximum allowable loss of life probability and more stringent acceptable flooding probabilities. In order to assess safety, a probabilistic approach is followed, where the uncertainties in hydraulic loads and strength of flood defences is described by probability distributions. Also, dependencies between various stochastic variables are taken into account. The approach will be described in the paper and applied to the Rotterdam area (South West Delta) in The Netherlands. Here, two divergent strategies are identified. The first strategy is to follow an adaptive approach with small temporal steps, with many strengthened inland flood defences as the main core. The second strategy is to continue with shortening the coastline by building a dam and pumping stations in the harbor of Rotterdam. The safety consequences of both strategies will be discussed.
Betrokken instanties Technische Universiteit Delft
HKV Lijn in Water
Rijkswaterstaat RWS
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