Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 376614
Title Predicting future costs of High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza epidemics: large versus small uncertainties
Author(s) Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Boven, R.M. van; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Boender, G.J.; Nodelijk, G.; Jong, M.C.M. de; Huirne, R.B.M.
Source NJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences 54 (2006)2. - ISSN 1573-5214 - p. 195 - 205.
Department(s) Business Economics
ASG Infectieziekten
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2006
Keyword(s) pluimveehouderij - scharrelhouderij - batterijhuisvesting - infectieziekten - aviaire influenza A-virussen - aviaire influenzavirussen - kosten - financieel landbouwbeleid - risicoschatting - modellen - poultry farming - free range husbandry - battery husbandry - infectious diseases - avian influenza A viruses - avian influenza viruses - costs - agricultural financial policy - risk assessment - models
Categories Poultry / Infectious Diseases
Abstract Every five years, the Dutch government and the poultry sector agree on how the direct costs of epidemics in poultry, should they occur, will be shared. In the agreement for 2005¿2009 the maximum amount to be paid by the poultry sector was set considerably higher than in the 1999¿2004 agreement. This increase was caused mainly by the expected financial risks associated with High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) epidemics. In this paper we focus on elucidating the uncertain and the less uncertain aspects of the HPAI financial risk problem. We distinguish between (1) the probability of an introduction of HPAI in the Netherlands, (2) the transmission potential of HPAI in the Netherlands, and (3) the costs and financing issues resulting from HPAI epidemics. We argue that whereas current understanding allows relatively precise answers to the question `If there is an there is an epidemic, how many farms will be affected and what will be the direct costs?¿, much larger uncertainties are associated with the questions `What is the chance of an HPAI epidemic in the Netherlands?¿, `How large will be the long-term government share in the direct costs?, and `How large will be the indirect costs?
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