Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 433008
Title Uncertainties in model predictions of nitrogen fluxes from agro-ecosystems in Europe
Author(s) Kros, J.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Reinds, G.J.; Lesschen, J.P.; Ioannidi, V.; Vries, W. de
Source Biogeosciences 9 (2012). - ISSN 1726-4170 - p. 4573 - 4588.
DOI https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4573-2012
Department(s) Sustainable Soil Use
Land Dynamics
PE&RC
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2012
Keyword(s) greenhouse-gas inventory - oxide emissions - n2o production - agriculture - soils - scale - denitrification - methodology - groundwater - challenges
Abstract To assess the responses of nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions to pan-European changes in land cover, land management and climate, an integrated dynamic model, INTEGRATOR, has been developed. This model includes both simple process-based descriptions and empirical relationships and uses detailed GIS-based environmental and farming data in combination with various downscaling methods. This paper analyses the propagation of uncertainties in model inputs and parameters to outputs of INTEGRATOR, using a Monte Carlo analysis. Uncertain model inputs and parameters were represented by probability distributions, while spatial correlation in these uncertainties was taken into account by assigning correlation coefficients at various spatial scales. The uncertainty propagation was analysed for the emissions of NH3, N2O and NOx, N leaching to groundwater and N runoff to surface water for the entire EU27 and for individual countries. Results show large uncertainties for N leaching and runoff (relative errors of ~ 19% for Europe as a whole), and smaller uncertainties for emission of N2O, NH3 and NOx (relative errors of ~ 12%). Uncertainties for Europe as a whole were much smaller compared to uncertainties at country level, because errors partly cancelled out due to spatial aggregation.
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