Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 451984
Title Optimal dike investments under uncertainty and learning about increasing water levels
Author(s) Pol, T.D. van der; Ierland, E.C. van; Weikard, H.P.
Source Journal of Flood Risk Management 7 (2014)4. - ISSN 1753-318X - p. 308 - 318.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12063
Department(s) Environmental Economics and Natural Resources
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2014
Keyword(s) dijken - versterking - investeringsvereisten - risicoschatting - waterstand - klimaatverandering - dykes - reinforcement - investment requirements - risk assessment - water level - climatic change - flood risk-assessment - climate-change - maintenance - netherlands - decisions - framework
Categories Water Management (General)
Abstract Water level extremes for seas and rivers are crucial to determine optimal dike heights. Future development in extremes under climate change is, however, uncertain. In this paper, we explore impacts of uncertainty and learning about increasing water levels on dike investment. We extend previous work in which a constant rate of structural water level increase is assumed. We introduce a probability distribution for this rate and study the impact of learning about this rate. We model learning as a single stochastic event where full information becomes available. Numerical solutions are obtained with dynamic programming. We find that the expected value of information can be substantial. Before information arrives, investment size is reduced as compared with the benchmark without learning, but investment frequency may be increased. The impact of learning on the initial investment strategy, however, is small as compared with the impact of uncertainty about increasing water levels by itself
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