Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 453157
Title An Agent-Based Assessment of Land Use and Ecosystem Changes in Traditional Agricultural Landscape of Portugal
Author(s) Acosta, L.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Bakker, M.M.; Doorn, A.M. van; Gómez-Delgado, M.; Delgado, M.
Source Intelligent Information Management 6 (2014)2. - ISSN 2160-5912 - p. 55 - 80.
DOI https://doi.org/10.4236/iim.2014.62008
Department(s) Land Use Planning
Applied Spatial Research
WASS
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2014
Abstract This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent- based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the influence on future land use patterns of socio-economic attributes such as social relationships and farmer reliance on subsidies and biophysical constraints. The application and development of the ABM are supported empirically using three categories of input data: 1) farmer types based on a cluster analysis of socio-economic attributes; 2) agricultural suitability based on regression analysis of historical land use maps and biophysical attributes; and 3) future trends in the economic and climatic environments based on the A1fi scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are carried out prior to the scenario analysis in order to verify the absence of systematic errors in the model structure. The results of the scenario analysis show that the area of Montado declines significantly by 2050, but it remains the dominant land use in the case study area, indicating some resilience to change. An important policy challenge arising from this assessment is how to encourage next generation of innovative farmers to conserve this traditional landscape for social and ecological values.
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