The large diversity in abiotic and biotic circumstances in European forests makes it extremely diffi cult to predict what the impacts of climate change will be on the various tree species, and ecosystems at the various localities. This makes it even more diffi cult to analyze how forest management should adapt. The case studies in EU Motive-project provide, however, a basis for upscaling to the European scale. For the fi rst time we combine species changes as predicted by a climate envelop model with an incorporation of forest management responses in an empirical European forest resource model (EFISCEN). It is assumed that only then a forest owner will decide to change tree species at that site towards one that is more preferred according to the climate envelop model. The results indicate that tree species composition will change only slowly at the European scale. By 2070, 10% of the total forest area will have changed species.
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