Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 485841
Title Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands
Author(s) Yousefpour, R.; Didion, M.P.; Jacobsen, J.B.; Meilby, H.; Hengeveld, G.M.; Schelhaas, M.; Thorsen, B.J.
Source Forest Policy and Economics 54 (2015). - ISSN 1389-9341 - p. 1 - 10.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2015.02.002
Department(s) CE - Forest Ecosystems
Vegetation, Forest and Landscape Ecology
WASS
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2015
Keyword(s) management - uncertainty - future - dynamics - germany - belief - face
Abstract We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time and mostly differ from deterministic decisions ignoring any change in climate. Moreover, we find that the adaptation strategies are indispensable not only because of climate change but also because of the development of the forest biological system over time and the need to revisit decisions.
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