Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 531945
Title Adapting Nyando smallholder farming systems to climate change and variability through modelling
Author(s) Recha, T.O.; Gachene, C.K.K.; Claessens, L.F.G.
Source African Journal of Agricultural Research 12 (2017)26. - ISSN 1991-637X - p. 2178 - 2187.
Department(s) PE&RC
Soil Geography and Landscape
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2017
Abstract This study was done in Nyando, Kenya to model maize production under different climate scenarios and project the yields up to 2030 and 2050 using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) under rain fed conditions. Three maize varieties were used; Katumani Comp B as early maturing variety, Hybrid 511 as a medium maturing variety and Hybrid 614 as a late maturing variety. Global coupled model Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 (HadGEM2-ES) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 was used to downscale Nyando’s climate data for the years 2030 and 2050. Past climate data for 53 years and current data was obtained from Kisumu Meteorological station while crop growth and farm management data was obtained from 70 farmers in Nyando. Results showed a decrease in yields across the years from 2015, 2030 and 2050 under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Average simulated yields for 2015 were 2519 kg ha-1 while projected yields under RCP 4.5 were 2212 and 2081 kg ha-1 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Average yield projections under RCP 8.5 were 2184 and 1806 kg ha-1 for the years 2030 and 2050 consecutively. The study found out that temperatures will increase and rainfall duration will reduce. In addition, Katumani Comp B maize variety was not very much affected by these changes in temperatures and rainfall compared to H511 and H614.
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