|Title||How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts|
|Author(s)||Kreibich, Heidi; Blauhut, Veit; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Lanen, Henny A.J. Van; Mejia, Alfonso; Mens, Marjolein; Loon, Anne F. Van|
|Source||Hydrological Sciences Journal 64 (2019)1. - ISSN 0262-6667 - p. 1 - 18.|
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management
|Publication type||Refereed Article in a scientific journal|
|Keyword(s)||consecutive hydro-hazards - damage - dynamic risk - hydrological extremes - paired catchments - trend attribution - vulnerability|
For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.