Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 548122
Title Forecasting product sales with a stochastic Bass model
Author(s) Grasman, Johan; Kornelis, Marcel
Source Journal of Mathematics in Industry 9 (2019). - ISSN 2190-5983 - 10 p.
Department(s) Mathematical and Statistical Methods - Biometris
Data Science, Information Management & Projectmanagement Organisation
Consumer and Chain
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2019
Keyword(s) Bass model - Confidence domain - Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process - Sensitivity of parameter to data

With the Bass model and data of previous sales a point estimate of future sales can be made for the purpose of stock management. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of that estimate a confidence interval can be of use. In this study such an interval is constructed from a Bass model extended with a noise term. The size of the noise is assumed to be proportional with the yearly sales. It is also assumed that the deviation from the deterministic solution is sufficiently small to make a small noise approximation. This perturbation takes the form of a time dependent Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. For the variance of the perturbation an exact expression can be given which is needed in order to obtain confidence intervals.

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