Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 548203
Title Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Author(s) Lassaletta, Luis; Estellés, Fernando; Beusen, Arthur H.W.; Bouwman, Lex; Calvet, Salvador; Grinsven, Hans J.M. Van; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Stehfest, Elke; Uwizeye, Aimable; Westhoek, Henk
Source Science of the Total Environment 665 (2019). - ISSN 0048-9697 - p. 739 - 751.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.079
Department(s) Water Systems and Global Change
International Policy
Animal Production Systems
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2019
Abstract Global pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen
emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past fewdecades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970–2005 period. The results showthat due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970–2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased bymore than a factor of two in the 1970–2005 period
(from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency
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