Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 551022
Title The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050
Author(s) Pastor, A.V.; Palazzo, A.; Havlik, P.; Biemans, H.; Wada, Y.; Obersteiner, M.; Kabat, P.; Ludwig, F.
Source Nature Sustainability 2 (2019). - ISSN 2398-9629 - p. 499 - 507.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0287-1
Department(s) Water and Food
WIMEK
Water Systems and Global Change
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2019
Abstract

In the face of meeting Sustainable Development Goals for the water–food–energy–ecosystems nexus, integrated assessments are a great means to measure the impact of global change on natural resources. In this study, we evaluate the impact of climate change with the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario and the impact of socioeconomics with the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 scenario on land use, water consumption and food trade under four water regulation policy scenarios (invest, exploit, environment and environment+). We used the Global Biosphere Management Model and constrained it with water availability, environmental flow requirements, and water use from agriculture, industry and households (simulated using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land model, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model and WaterGap model). Here, we show that an increase in land use by 100 Mha would be required to double food production by 2050, to meet projected food demands. International trade would need to nearly triple to meet future crop demands, with an additional 10–20% trade flow from water-abundant regions to water-scarce regions to sustain environmental flow requirements on a global scale.

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