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Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 552369
Title Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries : A Finland case study
Author(s) Sferra, Fabio; Krapp, Mario; Roming, Niklas; Schaeffer, Michiel; Malik, Aman; Hare, Bill; Brecha, Robert
Source Energy Policy 133 (2019). - ISSN 0301-4215
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.020
Department(s) Environmental Systems Analysis
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2019
Keyword(s) 1.5 °C pathway - Downscaling - Energy sector - Integrated assessment models - Mitigation - Paris agreement
Abstract

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted so far under the Paris Agreement are not in line with its long-term temperature goal. To bridge this gap, countries are required to provide regular updates and enhancements of their long-term targets and strategies, based on scientific assessments. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a policy-support approach for evaluating NDCs and guiding enhanced ambition. The approach rests on deriving national targets in line with the Paris Agreement by downscaling regional results of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to the country level. The method of downscaling relies on a reduced complexity IAM: SIAMESE (Simplified Integrated Assessment Model with Energy System Emulator). We apply the approach to an EU28 member state – Finland – with the aim of providing useful insights for policy makers to consider cost-effective mitigation options. Results over the historical period confirm that our approach is valid when national policies are similar to those across the larger IAM region, but must include country-specific circumstances. Strengths and limitations of the approach are discussed. We assess the remaining carbon budget and analyse the different implications of 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limits for the emissions pathway and energy mix in Finland over the 21st century.

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