Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 556254
Title Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values
Author(s) Hellegers, Marjon; Ozinga, Wim A.; Hinsberg, Arjen; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.; Hennekens, Stephan M.; Schaminée, Joop H.J.; Dengler, Jürgen; Schipper, Aafke M.
Source Ecography 43 (2020)1. - ISSN 0906-7590 - p. 161 - 170.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04291
Department(s) Vegetation, Forest and Landscape Ecology
PE&RC
Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2020
Keyword(s) BioScore - ecological niche model - Ellenberg indicator values - model selection - scale dependency - validation
Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, but also on the realism of the modeled ecological responses. However, possibilities for the latter are hampered by limited knowledge on the true responses as well as a lack of quantitative evaluation methods. Here we compared modeled niche optima obtained from European-scale SDMs of 1476 terrestrial vascular plant species with empirical ecological indicator values indicating the preferences of plant species for key environmental conditions. For each plant species we first fitted an ensemble SDM including three modeling techniques (GLM, GAM and BRT) and extracted niche optima for climate, soil, land use and nitrogen deposition variables with a large explanatory power for the occurrence of that species. We then compared these SDM-derived niche optima with the ecological indicator values by means of bivariate correlation analysis. We found weak to moderate correlations in the expected direction between the SDM-derived niche optima and ecological indicator values. The strongest correlation occurred between the modeled optima for growing degree days and the ecological indicator values for temperature. Correlations were weaker for SDM-derived niche optima with a more distal relationship to ecological indicator values (notably precipitation and soil moisture). Further, correlations were consistently highest for BRT, followed by GLM and GAM. Our method gives insight into the ecological realism of modeled niche optima and projected core habitats and can be used to improve SDMs by making a more informed selection of environmental variables and modeling techniques.

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