|Title||Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe?|
|Author(s)||Alderlieste, Marcel A.A.; Lanen, Henny A.J. Van; Wanders, Niko|
|Source||In: Hydrology in a Changing World. - Copernicus GmbH (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports ) - ISBN 9781907161414 - p. 60 - 65.|
|Event||7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, 2014-10-07/2014-10-10|
Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management
|Publication type||Contribution in proceedings|
|Keyword(s)||Europe - Forcing - Future - Hydrological drought - Low flow - Runoff - Uncertainty|
Climate data from a re-analysis dataset (WFD, 1971-2000) and three GCMs (1971-2100) for two emissions scenarios were used to: (i) explore future low flows and hydrological drought characteristics, and (ii) estimate how uncertainty in forcing propagates into these characteristics. Runoff was obtained through a multi-model mean from large-scale models forced with WFD and GCMs. Low flow and drought characteristics in two transects across Europe were intercompared for 1971-2000 to estimate forcing uncertainty, and for two future time frames to quantify climate change impact and to compare impact with forcing uncertainty (signal-noise ratios). Annual flow was projected to decrease (maximum 30%), but forcing uncertainty is larger (minimum 35%). Drought duration was predicted to increase (50-180%) with low forcing uncertainty (<10%). Similar observations were made for future deficit volumes. This study shows that future droughts can be predicted with higher certainty than low flows and that multi-forcing is required.