Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 558280
Title Future low flows and hydrological drought: How certain are these for Europe?
Author(s) Alderlieste, Marcel A.A.; Lanen, Henny A.J. Van; Wanders, Niko
Source In: Hydrology in a Changing World. - Copernicus GmbH (IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports ) - ISBN 9781907161414 - p. 60 - 65.
Event 7th World Flow Regimes from International and Experimental Network Data-Water Conference, FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, 2014-10-07/2014-10-10
Department(s) Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management
WIMEK
Publication type Contribution in proceedings
Publication year 2014
Keyword(s) Europe - Forcing - Future - Hydrological drought - Low flow - Runoff - Uncertainty
Abstract

Climate data from a re-analysis dataset (WFD, 1971-2000) and three GCMs (1971-2100) for two emissions scenarios were used to: (i) explore future low flows and hydrological drought characteristics, and (ii) estimate how uncertainty in forcing propagates into these characteristics. Runoff was obtained through a multi-model mean from large-scale models forced with WFD and GCMs. Low flow and drought characteristics in two transects across Europe were intercompared for 1971-2000 to estimate forcing uncertainty, and for two future time frames to quantify climate change impact and to compare impact with forcing uncertainty (signal-noise ratios). Annual flow was projected to decrease (maximum 30%), but forcing uncertainty is larger (minimum 35%). Drought duration was predicted to increase (50-180%) with low forcing uncertainty (<10%). Similar observations were made for future deficit volumes. This study shows that future droughts can be predicted with higher certainty than low flows and that multi-forcing is required.

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