|Title||Agent based modelling to support policies on shrimp farming and mangrove in the Vietnamese Mekkong Delta|
|Author(s)||Tong Quoc, Hiep; Dang Tri, Van Pham; Ligtenberg, Arend; Bosma, Roel; Tran Thi Phung, Ha; Bregt, Arnold|
|Event||12th Asian Fisheries & Aquaculture Forum (AFAF), Iloilo, 2019-04-08/2019-04-12|
Laboratory of Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing
Aquaculture and Fisheries
Dean & Managers Office
|Publication type||Unpublished lecture|
|Abstract||Coastal zones are vulnerable to changes in ecology due to industries and
urbanization, and in upstream water sources and sea level. Designing policies
considering all aspects is challenging. NGO's advocate balancing ecology and
economy, while GO stimulates farmers to shift to intensive (INT) shrimp farming.
Most farmers intensify only part of their improved-extensive (IE) or integrated
mangrove shrimp (IMS) farms into so-called hybrid systems. Using an agent-based model a spatially explicit assessment of farmers' choices and local orientation was simulated for three areas and three scenarios. The baseline scenario, assuming the increase of INT due to GO policies, shows that planning fails due to a gap between the ambitions of local authorities and the outcomes for farmers. The Organic scenario confirmed the trend towards more INT while just maintaining IMS, despite financial support. In the Climate Change scenario, the income of shrimp farming decreased due to the increased risks.