Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 561219
Title Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?
Author(s) Dalla-Nora, Eloi Lennon; Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de; Lapola, David Montenegro; Woltjer, Geert
Source Land Use Policy 39 (2014). - ISSN 0264-8377 - p. 403 - 411.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.02.004
Department(s) LEI Internationaal Beleid
International Policy
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2014
Keyword(s) Brazilian amazon - Land demand - Land use models
Abstract

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized.

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