Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 561259
Title Improving the performance of water demand forecasting models by using weather input
Author(s) Bakker, M.; Duist, H. Van; Schagen, K. Van; Vreeburg, J.; Rietveld, L.
Source Procedia Engineering 70 (2014). - ISSN 1877-7058 - p. 93 - 102.
Event 12th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2013, Perugia, 2013-09-02/2013-09-04
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2014.02.012
Department(s) Sociology of Development and Change
Environmental Technology
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2014
Keyword(s) Demand forecasting - MLR model - Short term - Transfer/-noise model - Weather input
Abstract

Literature shows that water demand forecasting models which use water demand as single input, are capable of generating a fairly accurate forecast. However, at changing weather conditions the forecasting errors are quite large. In this paper three different forecasting models are studied: an Adaptive Heuristic model, a Transfer/-noise model, and a Multiple Linear Regression model. The performance of the models was studied both with and without using weather input, in order to assess the possible performance improvement due to using weather input. Simulations with the models showed that when using weather input the largest forecasting errors can be reduced by 11%, and the average errors by 7%. This reduction is important for the application of the forecasting model for the control of water supply systems and for anomaly detection.

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