Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 569216
Title Improving Forecast Skill of Lowland Hydrological Models Using Ensemble Kalman Filter and Unscented Kalman Filter
Author(s) Sun, Y.; Bao, W.; Valk, K.; Brauer, C.C.; Sumihar, J.; Weerts, A.H.
Source Water Resources Research 56 (2020)8. - ISSN 0043-1397
DOI https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027468
Department(s) Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2020
Keyword(s) Kalman filters - lowland hydrology - state updating - streamflow - verification
Abstract

For operational water management in lowlands and polders (for instance, in the Netherlands), lowland hydrological models are used for flow prediction, often as an input for a real-time control system to steer water with pumps and weirs to keep water levels within acceptable bounds. Therefore, proper initialization of these models is essential. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used due to its relative simplicity and robustness, while the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) has received little attention in the operational context. Here, we test both UKF and EnKF using a lowland lumped hydrological model. The results of a reforecast experiment in an operational context using an hourly time step show that when using nine ensemble members, both filters can improve the accuracy of the forecast by updating the state of a lumped hydrological model (Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator, WALRUS) based on the observed discharge, while UKF has achieved better performance than EnKF. Additionally, we show that an increase in the ensemble members does not necessarily mean a significant increase in performance. WALRUS model with either UKF or EnKF could be considered for hydrological forecasting for supporting water management of polders and lowlands, with UKF being the computationally leaner option.

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