Foresight promotion report for policy & decision-makers : Work Package 4 – Institutional strengthening, Task 4.3 – Promote Foresight activities
Leitner, M. ; Bentz, J. ; Lourenço, Tiago Capela ; Swart, R.J. ; Coninx, I. ; Allenbach, Karin ; Thibaut Rohat, Guillaume - \ 2019
Lisbon : Placard - 57 p.
Foresight workshop summary: The future of Europe depends on how it manages the risks of climate extremes : Foresight: December 2018 Workshop summary
Leitner, M. ; Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. ; Lourenço, Tiago Capela - \ 2019
Lisbon : Placard - 36 p.
This report is partly based on the The future of Europe and the future of climate action: reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by Jonathan Gaventa and Manon Dufour, E3G; Martin Nesbit and Kamila Paquel, IEEP and Radostina Primova, HBS EU and mostly on the PLACARD Foresight workshop: facing the future of Europe’s climate – EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads One of the working streams of PLACARD is to promote foresight. Foresight is a method to try out a set of forward-looking approaches that help decision-makers explore and anticipate what might happen. This allows decision-makers to prepare for a range of possible futures, and influence and shape those futures.
Assessing physical climate risks for investments: A risky promise
Swart, Rob - \ 2019
Climate Services 14 (2019). - ISSN 2405-8807 - p. 15 - 18.
The world’s financial sector is making significant strides to account for both transition and physical climate risks in investments. The latter holds promise for increasing resilience. But effective frameworks for characterising physical risks for different types of investors and investments are as yet missing or often not used, and avoidance of investments in high-risk areas may counter the positive effects. This short commentary starts to characterise the promises and pitfalls of climate risk assessment in the financial sector and proposes a conceptual framework to capture the main dimensions. A stronger and collaborative role for public and private climate service providers is suggested to upgrade climate risk assessments for financial actors.
Adaptation policy at supranational level? Evidence from the European Union
Biesbroek, G.R. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2019
In: Research Handbook on Climate Change Adaptation Policy / Keskitalo, E.C.H., Preston, B.L., Edward Elgar Publishing (Social and Political Science 2019 ) - ISBN 9781786432513 - p. 194 - 211.
The European Union (EU) is a supranational entity for which climate change adaptation has become an important policy topic. This chapter seeks to address the question of how the EU currently governs climate change adaptation. The authors show how the open method of coordination as governing logic offers the possibility for the European Commission to mainstream climate change adaptation considerations through the acquiscommunautaire. Moreover, this approach also offers the Commission the possibility to stimulate the exchange of best practices, setting up new policy, practice and knowledge networks, involving non-governmental organizations and the private sector in adaptation, and to facilitate coordination and cooperation between member states and regions. Beyond these mostly procedural policy tools, however, the EU has very limited power to force member states to start adapting. The authors reflect on what these insights from the EU mean for governing climate change adaptation at the supranational level in general.
How could climate services support disaster risk reduction in the 21st century
Street, R.B. ; Buontempo, C. ; Mysiak, J. ; Karali, E. ; Pulquério, M. ; Murray, V. ; Swart, R. - \ 2019
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 34 (2019). - ISSN 2212-4209 - p. 28 - 33.
Climate services - DRR decision-support - Post-2015 agenda
In January 2018, three leading European initiatives on climate services (CS) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiated a discussion on how the DRR community could be best served by new and emerging CS. The aim was to identify challenges and opportunities for delivery of effective operational disaster risk management and communication informed by an understanding of future climate risks. The resulting discussion engaged experts from civil protection, health, insurance, engineering and the climate service community. Discussions and subsequent reflections recognised that CS can strengthen all phases of the DRR cycle and that there are lessons to learn from experience that could enhance and demonstrate the value of CS supporting the DRR community. For this to happen, however, the supporting information should be relevant, accessible, legitimate and credible and engage both service supply and demand sides. It was also agreed that there was need for identifiable and credible champions recognised as providing leadership and focal points for the development, delivery and evaluation of CS supporting DRR. This paper summarises the identified key challenges (e.g. disconnection between CS and DRR; accessibility of relevant and quality-controlled information; understanding of information needs; and understanding the role of CS and its link to the DRR planning cycle). It also suggests taking advantage of the unique opportunities as a result of the increased coherence and mutual reinforcement across the post-2015 international agendas and the increasing recognition that links between public health and DRR can provide impetus and a focus for developing CS that support DRR.
PLACARD translated materials – first set : Work Package 3 – knowledge brokerage, Deliverable 3.3
Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. ; Schwarze, Reimund ; Michalek, Gabriela - \ 2018
Placard - 9 p.
Brief communication: Strengthening coherence between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction
Mysiak, J. ; Castellari, Sergio ; Kurnik, Blaz ; Swart, R.J. ; Pringle, Patrick ; Schwarzenbach, R. ; Wolters, H. ; Jeuken, A. ; Linden, Paul van der - \ 2018
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18 (2018)11. - ISSN 1561-8633 - p. 3137 - 3143.
Reducing disaster risks and adapting to climate change are ever more important policy goals in Europe and worldwide. The commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and complementary multilateral frameworks, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, has galvanised pursuits for policy coherence. The report »Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe: enhancing coherence of the knowledge base, policies and practices« of the European Environment Agency identified several ways how coherence and resilience can be built through knowledge sharing, collaboration and investments.
Identification of relevant international networks, programmes and institutions for JPI Climate research : Work Package 3 - Deliverable 3.1
Aalbers, C.B.E.M. ; Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2018
Wageningen : SINCERE - 60 p.
|Identification of relevant international networks, programmes and institutions for JPI Climate research
Aalbers, C.B.E.M. ; Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2018
SINCERE project, strategic document, non-public H2020-SC5-2016-2017/H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB, Deliverable 3.1, European Commission
Social vulnerability to climate change in European cities – state of play in policy and Practice
Breil, M. ; Downing, C. ; Kazmierczak, A. ; Mäkinen, K. ; Romanovska, L. ; Terämä, E. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2018
Copenhagen : EEA - European Environment Agency (ETC/CCA Technical Paper 2018/1) - 85 p.
Climate change impacts do not affect all citizens in the same way. They often cause worse impacts on certain vulnerable groups within cities. The aim of this technical paper is to provide the state-of-play in policy and practice for addressing social vulnerability to climate change in urban areas.
Adaptation to climate change at local level in Europe: An overview
Aguiar, F.C. ; Bentz, J. ; Silva, J.M.N. ; Fonseca, A.L. ; Swart, R.J. ; Santos, F.D. ; Penha-Lopes, Gil - \ 2018
Environmental Science & Policy 86 (2018). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 38 - 63.
Europe’s climate change vulnerability pushes for initiatives such as the European Adaptation Strategy and the associated Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. What are the triggers and barriers, for which sectors and for which risks and how is adaptation funded? This paper examines 147 Local Adaptation Strategies in Europe. Key triggers were incentives via research projects, implementation of EU policies and the increasing frequency of extreme climate events. Insufficient resources, capacity, political commitment and uncertainty were the main barriers. Prioritized sectors reflected the main local vulnerabilities - flood protection and water management, built environment and urban planning. Differing patterns of adaptation planning and adaptive capacity were identified among different regions in Europe. Large municipalities generally fund adaptation locally, whereas international and national funding appears to be more important for adaptation in less urban or densely populated territories. The database of LAS described in the present study can be expanded and used to increase the understanding of and promotion of local adaptation action in Europe and beyond.
Strategic narratives to induce preparedness and prevention in cities : New governance tool for public action
Coninx, I. ; Michalek, Gabriela ; Bentz, J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Schwarze, Reimund - \ 2017
Weather- and climate-related natural hazards in Europe
Kurnik, Blaz ; Linden, P. van der; Mysiak, J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Füssel, H.M. ; Christiansen, Trine ; Cavicchia, Leone ; Gualdi, S. ; Mercogliano, Paola ; Rianna, Guido ; Kramer, K. ; Michetti, Melania ; Salis, Michele ; Schelhaas, M. ; Leitner, M. ; Vanneuville, W. ; Macadam, Ian - \ 2017
In: Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe / Castellari, Sergio, Kurnik, Blaz, EEA - European Environment Agency (EEA Report 15/2017) - ISBN 9789292138936 - p. 46 - 91.
Since 2003, Europe has experienced several extreme summer heat waves. Such heat waves are projected to occur as often as every 2 years in the second half of the 21st century, under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The impacts will be
particularly strong in southern Europe.
Heavy precipitation events have increased in northern and north-eastern Europe since the 1960s, whereas different indices show diverging trends for south-western and southern Europe. Heavy precipitation events are projected to
become more frequent in most parts of Europe.
The number of very severe flood events in Europe has varied since 1980, but the economic losses have increased. It isnot currently possible to quantify the contribution due to increased heavy precipitation in parts of Europe compared with better reporting and land use changes.
Observations of windstorm location, frequency and intensity have showed considerable variability across Europe during the 20th century. Models project an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track towards central Europe, with an increase in the number of cyclones in central Europe and a decreased number in the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas.
For medicanes (also termed Mediterranean Sea hurricanes), a decreased frequency but increased intensity of medicanes is projected in the Mediterranean area.
Landslides are a natural hazard that cause fatalities and significant economic losses in various parts of Europe. Projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will affect rock slope stability conditions and favour increases in the frequency of shallow landslides, especially in European mountains.
The severity and frequency of droughts appear to have increased in parts of Europe, in particular in southern and south-eastern Europe. Droughts are projected to increase in frequency, duration, and severity in most of Europe, with the strongest increase projected for southern Europe.
Forest fire risk depends on many factors, including climatic conditions, vegetation, forest management practices and other socio-economic factors. The burnt area in the Mediterranean region increased from 1980 to 2000; it has decreased thereafter. Projected increases in heat waves together with an expansion of the fire-prone area will increase the duration of fire seasons across Europe, in particular in southern Europe.
Observational data between 1970 and 2015 show that alpine avalanches cause on average 100 fatalities every winter in the Alps. Increased temperatures are expected to lead to decreases in alpine snow cover and duration, and in turn
to decreased avalanche activity below about 1 500-2 000 m elevation in spring, but increased avalanche activity above 2 000 m elevation, especially in winter.
Hail is responsible for significant damage to crops, vehicles, buildings and other infrastructure. Despite improvements in data availability, trends and projections of hail events are still subject to large uncertainties owing to a lack of direct
observation and inadequate microphysical schemes in numerical weather prediction and climate models.
Extreme high coastal water levels have increased at most locations along the European coastline. This increase appears to be predominantly due to increases in mean local sea level rather than to changes in storm activity. Projected changes in the frequency and intensity of storm surges are expected to cause significant ecological damage, economic loss and other societal problems along low-lying coastal areas in northern and western Europe, unless additional adaptation measures are implemented.
Impacts of natural hazards in Europe
Groeve, Tom De; Kurnik, Blaz ; Mysiak, J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Semenza, Jan C. ; Kendrovski, Vladimir ; Kramer, K. ; Ivits, Eva ; Vanneuville, W. ; Carrera, Lorenzo ; Blauhut, V. ; Erhard, M. ; Christiansen, Trine - \ 2017
In: Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe / Castellari, Sergio, Kurnik, Blaz, EEA - European Environment Agency (EEA Report 15/2017) - ISBN 9789292138936 - p. 92 - 115.
Climate change has caused noticeable effects on human health in Europe, mainly as a result of extreme events, an increase in climate-sensitive diseases, and a deterioration in environmental and social conditions. Heat waves were the
deadliest extreme weather event in the period 1991–2015 in Europe.
Increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather- and climate-related events may lead to more disastrous impacts on ecosystems and their services. Management of ecosystems can help to avoid or significantly reduce these impacts.
The total reported economic losses caused by extreme weather- and climate-related events in the EEA member countries over the period 1980-2015 amount to around EUR 433 billion (in 2015 values). A large share of the total losses (70 %) has been caused by a small number of events (3 %).
|Transformative urban adaptation to climate change
Kazmierczak, A. ; Breil, A.M. ; Dworak, T. ; Swart, R.J. ; Mäkinen, K. - \ 2017
EEA - European Environment Agency
Developing climate information portals with users : Promises and pitfalls
Swart, R.J. ; Bruin, K. de; Dhenain, S. ; Dubois, G. ; Groot, Annemarie ; Forst, E. von der - \ 2017
Climate Services 6 (2017). - ISSN 2405-8807 - p. 12 - 22.
The priority of climate change on political and research agendas fluctuates but got a recent boost after the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement. The amount of climate data is surging and so is the number of climate information portals.
Portal developers usually aim at serving ‘‘users” and therefore consult them. But how useful are the resulting portals really? And for whom? How effective was the involvement of users in developing the portal?
This paper aims to provide some answers to these questions.
Reflections which have been carried out in this paper are based on the situation in Europe, building on experience in a number of European projects, in particular the CLIPC project (Climate Information Portal for Copernicus), a ‘‘pre-operational” research project for Copernicus.
Financing urban adaptation tot climate change
Swart, R.J. ; Georgi, B. ; Romanovska, L. ; Dworak, T. ; Berglund, M. ; Gossum, H. van; Water, Sandra van de; Bosch, P. ; Rovers, V. ; Eichler, L. - \ 2017
EEA - European Environment Agency (EEA Report 2) - ISBN 9789292138455 - 36
Despite the global signals, and European and national
efforts to unlock climate finance, meeting the costs
of adaptation measures for climate change is a
major challenge for relevant authorities and private
stakeholders. However, municipalities across Europe
— cities, towns and smaller districts — have found
various innovative ways to overcome the challenge of
financing their adaptation measures. The 11 city case
studies presented in this publication, and the lessons
they provide, can inspire other cities and smaller
municipalities to reproduce these measures.
Klaar voor klimaatverandering : Opmaak van een risico- en kwetsbaarheidsanalyse in functie van klimaatadaptatie en uitwerken van adaptatiebeleid op maat van en voor de provincie Antwerpen
Coninx, Ingrid ; Willems, Patrick ; Goosen, Hasse ; Rooij, Bertram De; Swart, Rob ; Boone, Pieter ; Uytven, Els Van; Tabari, Hossein ; Koekoek, Arjen ; Bijsterveldt, Menno Van - \ 2016
Wageningen : Alterra Wageningen UR (Alterra-rapport 2741) - 104
Deze studie vat de bestaande kennis over klimaatverandering, die relevant is voor de provincieAntwerpen samen. De voornaamste effecten die te verwachten zijn, zijn inzichtelijk gemaakt.Vervolgens is er een opsomming gemaakt van beleidsacties die de provincie Antwerpen kan nemenOm de effecten te matigen of zelfs te voorkomen. Deze acties zijn gericht op: -Analyse en het verwerven van meer en betere inzichten, - Integreren van klimaatdata in de huidige beleidsinstrumenten, wat vaak wordt aangeduid met‘mainstreamen van beleid’, - Realiseren van een aantal adaptatiemaatregelen, - Betrekken en activeren van andere mensen om acties te ondernemen voor elk van de acties is aangegeven op welke termijn ze genomen zouden kunnen worden. Bij veelvan deze acties wordt de korte termijn aangegeven. Dat heeft twee redenen. Ten eerste, omdat deeffecten nu al plaatsvinden. Ten tweede omdat hoe sneller men klaar is voor klimaatverandering, hoebeter men het hoofd leert bieden aan deze effecten. Vele van deze acties zijn gericht op maatregelendie ook andere maatschappelijke doelen dienen. Het zijn zogenaamde ‘no-regret’ maatregelen diemeerdere voordelen opleveren. Het kan daarom geen kwaad om zo spoedig mogelijk aan de gang tegaan met deze acties.Tot slot nog de boodschap: klimaatadaptatie gaat niet louter om het aanpakken van eenbeleidsprobleem door één specifieke beleidsdienst. Klimaatadaptatie is een integraal beleidsproces.Het kan een manier zijn om een regio te ontwikkelen, sterk te maken en om nieuwe levensstijlenmogelijk te maken. Het kan ook een manier zijn om de samenleving te versterken en het gebiedleefbaar te houden, zodat elke bevolkingsgroep zich thuis voelt. Klimaatadaptatie doet men samen, endaarom zal de provincie Antwerpen in navolging van deze eerste verkenning met andere mensen devolgende stappen zetten om de provincie klaar te maken voor klimaatverandering.
Evolving issues brief 2016
Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. ; Schwarze, Reimund ; Michalek, Gabriela - \ 2016
Placard - 21 p.
The Evolving issues brief aims to inform the PLACARD community in a short and easy-to-read way about our progress in bridging the gaps between the CCA and DRR communities. The issues identified are described in the gap report and are at the core of the PLACARD dialogues. The brief describes the issues and summarises how they can be bridged based on suggestions made during the PLACARD dialogues. The brief also describes new issues that may arise during future PLACARD dialogues. Additional activities to bridge CCA and DRR on these issues are proposed, and research questions are described.
Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe 2016 : Transforming cities in a changing climate
Georgi, B. ; Isoard, S. ; Asquith, M. ; Garzillo, C. ; Swart, R.J. ; Timmerman, J.G. - \ 2016
Copenhagen : ETC CCA (EEA Report No 12/2016) - 45
Climate change adaptation - urban areas - urban adaptation
This report builds on and complements existing products and initiatives on urban adaptation in Europe. It focuses on the state of actions in the field and progress achieved since the first EEA report in 2012, and it considers this analysis in relation to current challenges: Do existing actions lead to attractive, climate-resilient cities and if not, what needs to be changed? The report aims to broaden perspectives and provide input to a review and subsequent adjustment of urban adaptation to climate change by local governments and by supporting regional, national and European institutions, researchers and other relevant stakeholders.
The rise of demand-driven climate services
Lourenço, Tiago Capela ; Swart, Rob ; Goosen, Hasse ; Street, Roger - \ 2016
Nature Climate Change 6 (2016)1. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 13 - 14.
With the concept of climate services rapidly climbing research and research-funding agendas worldwide, the time is ripe for a debate about the objectives, scope and content of such services.
Towards a diagnostic adaptation science
Hinkel, Jochen ; Bisaro, Alexander ; Swart, Rob - \ 2016
Regional Environmental Change 16 (2016)1. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 1 - 5.
Frontiers of solution-oriented adaptation research
Bisaro, A. ; Swart, R.J. ; Hinkel, J. - \ 2016
Regional Environmental Change 16 (2016)1. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 123 - 136.
Adaptation is heterogeneous and relevant for a range of sectors and levels of decision-making. As adaptation moves up the policy agenda, solution-oriented adaptation research requires addressing questions that are salient to stakeholders and decision-makers at various scales and involves applying a wide range of different methods. Yet while solution-oriented adaptation research is being increasingly undertaken, there is to date a lack of synthesis of these experiences in the literature. In this paper, we aim to address this gap by synthesising findings in nine cases from the MEDIATION project (Methodology for Effective Decision-making on Impacts and AdaptaTION), an EC-funded solution-oriented adaptation research project. We do so by, first, describing methods applied for solution-oriented research in Europe and sequences of methods carried out in individual cases. Second, we assess strengths and weaknesses of individual methods in given empirical situations. Third, we analyse patterns observed in the sequences of methods and reflect on their implications for adaptation research. A strength of our approach is that detailed data on choices of research questions and methods were collected through in-depth and iterative interaction with the case study teams. We find that there is no standard recipe for adaptation; that even though social science methods are often indicated, they are often not applied; and that robust decision-making methods, while available, are often constrained because of their resource intensity. Reflecting on the implications of these findings, we argue that greater flexibility and transdisciplinarity are needed in adaptation research and that social science methods should be further supported. Finally, we find that stakeholder engagement is not a panacea and that engagement requires a more differentiated understanding of stakeholders and careful design in order to be effective.
Forest Fires and Adaptation Options in Europe
Khabarov, N. ; Krasovskii, A. ; Obersteiner, M. ; Swart, R.J. ; Dosio, A. ; San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. ; Durrant, T. ; Camia, A. ; Migliavacca, M. - \ 2016
Regional Environmental Change 16 (2016)1. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 21 - 30.
This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with observed data coming from two different sources (European Forest Fire Information System and Global Fire Emissions Database). Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under “no adaptation” scenario is about 200 % by 2090 (compared with 2000–2008). The application of prescribed burnings has the potential to keep that increase below 50 %. Improvements in fire suppression might reduce this impact even further, e.g. boosting the probability of putting out a fire within a day by 10 % would result in about a 30 % decrease in annual burned areas. By taking more adaptation options into consideration, such as using agricultural fields as fire breaks, behavioural changes, and long-term options, burned areas can be potentially reduced further than projected in our analysis.
Steden en gemeenten adapteren
Coninx, I. ; Och, R.A.F. van; Swart, R.J. ; Goosen, H. ; Bijsterveldt, M.A.J.C. van; Masselink, L.J.W. ; Sips, K. ; Vincke, Jan ; Bonné, Evita - \ 2015
Brussel : Departement Leefmilieu, Natuur en Energie - 123 p.
Cities and municipalities in Flanders will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of climate change. The
Department of LNE intends to support them by the prevention of and adaptation to these impacts by offering
an easily accessible toolbox with which local authorities can decrease their vulnerability. This toolbox will help
the local authorities to ease, in an ‘automatic’ way, to develop a local adaptation plan. This report proposes the
characteristics of such a toolbox. It is based on (i) an analysis of different steps in the adaptation decision-making
processes, (ii) a mapping of adaptation support needs of municipalities, (iii) an inventory and evaluation of existing
instruments for adaptation, (iv) the demonstration and testing existing instruments that meets the adaptation
support needs of local authorities and (v) a description of the Adaptation Toolbox for Flanders, based on the
Analysis of steps in adaptation processes. Based on an analysis of national and international adaptation processes
six steps are distinguished that shape the decision-making process of climate change adaptation at the local level:
fostering political commitment, climate impact and vulnerability analysis, identification of adaptation measures,
prioritizing and choosing adaptation measures, implementing measures, and monitoring and evaluation. In practice,
these steps will not always be taken subsequently but sometimes also in parallel. Stakeholder engagement is
relevant for all steps.
Adaptation support needs of local authorities. Information on adaptation support needs of local authorities was
analysed through a number of interviews with different types of municipalities across Flanders. Needs and desires
depend on factors such as the size of a municipality, the available staff and funds, the motivation of staff involved
and the progress made in developing climate plans. The willingness of a wide variety of municipalities to participate
and the interest in the issue appeared to be large, which also led to a very wide diversity of needs and wishes as to
the characteristics of a toolbox.
Analysis of existing methods and tools. An inventory resulted in about 89 existing methods and tools that could
be relevant for a Flemish toolbox, from Belgium, the Netherlands, and other Western countries. The tools were
organized and evaluated according to a number of aspects, such as their specific purposes, the accessibility, the
required level of expertise, the type of climate effects, the ease or complexity of application, the level of scale, the
type of output and the potential for transfer to an application in Flanders. Furthermore, benefits and pitfalls are
identified. The 89 instruments were structured in a decision tree to ease the search for the most appropriate tool.
Playzone. In a workshop, instruments that fit to the adaptation support needs were demonstrated and tested
by the participants for their applicability in the Flemish context. This exercise made clear that many of the tools
have potential, but need to be translated to the Flemish situation, and for non-Dutch tools, translated. Many of
them also require Flemish data. It is important that detailed data and other relevant information on climate risks
and vulnerabilities will become available for Flanders, where this is currently sometimes the cases for Antwerp
and a limited number of other cities and regions. This should preferably be at one location and compatible with
software systems used by Flemish municipalities. The toolbox should take the level of available knowledge and
human resources into account as well as the need to integrate climate change adaptation with other policy areas.
Participants confirmed the urgency of such a toolbox and also the feasibility.
Describing the Adaptation Toolbox. Based on the inteviews, the steering group consultations, the analyses and the
playzone activity recommendations are formulated for the Adaptation Toolbox for Flemish municipalities and cities.
Adaptation support needs and instrument specifications are fully considered. Recommendations are made on the
Adaptation Toolbox, including: (a) bringing together information on climate impact and vulnerability in a GIS viewer;
(b) a climate test for new and ongoing projects; (c) a database of adaptation measures, including information
on vulnerabilities, costs and effects; (d) a Climate Cuisine – a workshop to involve stakeholders in identifying
adaptation measures and developing an adaptation plan; (g) financial support on synergies in local budgets and
help to find national and European subsidies to finance adaptation measures. In addition to an online toolbox, we
recommend the development of an Adaptation Community where a lively dialogue will take place between local
authorities, provinces, companies, citizens, NGO’s and the Flemish authorities on adaptation practices and how to
develop than as efficient as possible.
|National action supporting urban adaptation in EEA Member States
Breil, M. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2015
Copenhagen : ETC CCA (Eionet Report ETC/CCA 2015/3) - 45 p.
Map book urban vulnerability to climate change : Factsheets
Timmerman, J.G. ; Bacciu, Valentina ; Coninx, I. ; Fons, J. ; Gregor, M. ; Havranek, Miroslav ; Jacobs, C.M.J. ; Loehnertz, M. ; Peltonen, L. ; Sainz, M. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2015
Copenhagen : European Environment Agency - 90 p.
National monitoring, reporting and evaluation of climate change adaptation in Europe
Pringle, P. ; Karali, E. ; Klostermann, J.E.M. ; Mäkinen, K. ; Prutsch, A. ; Hildén, M. ; Swart, R.J. ; Street, R. ; MCCallum, S. - \ 2015
Copenhagen : European Environment Agency (EEA Technical Report 20/2015) - ISBN 9789292137052 - 68
|Acknowledgements : National monitoring, reporting and evaluation of climate change adaption in Europe
Timmerman, J.G. ; Coninx, I. ; Jacobs, C.M.J. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2015
Copenhagen : European Environment Agency (EEA)
Communicating climate (change) uncertainties: simulation games as boundary objects
Pelt, S.C. van; Haasnoot, M. ; Arts, B.J.M. ; Ludwig, F. ; Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. - \ 2015
Environmental Science & Policy 45 (2015). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 41 - 52.
science-policy interface - decision-support - projections - adaptation - politics - information - transition - management - working - systems
Climate science is characterized by large uncertainties about the direction, extent and time frame of climate change. Communicating these uncertainties is important for decision making on robust adaptation strategies, but proves to be a challenge for scientists particularly because of the complexity of uncertainties that are part of natural variability and of human induced climate change. The aim of this paper is to assess the role of a simulation game, as intermediate, to the communication of climate change uncertainties to water managers. In three workshops with water managers, the simulation game ‘Sustainable Delta’ was played to test the influence of the game on their understanding of climate change uncertainty using ex ante and ex post surveys. In each workshop an experimental- and control group were given different assignments to measure the influence of the game. The results show that although the differences between groups were not statistically significant, a change in their understanding of uncertainties was observed. The paper concludes that the learning effect of the game is inconclusive, but that the game does fosters a broader understanding of the concept climate change uncertainty. In doing so, simulation games are a promising approach to support the communication of climate change uncertainties meaningfully and support the process of adaptation to an uncertain future.
Socioecological inequalities in European urban areas : A first exploration of incidences, causes, consequences and assessment methods
Aalbers, C.B.E.M. ; Vries, S. de; Swart, R.J. ; Betgen, C. ; Eupen, M. van - \ 2014
Wageningen : WUR, Alterra - 51 p.
Climate Change Adaptation Manual : Lessons learned from European and other industrialised countries
Prutsch, Andrea ; Grothmann, Torsten ; MCCallum, S. ; Schauser, I. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
London : Routledge - ISBN 9780203381267 - 378 p.
economics - finance - business & industry - environment and sustainability - law - politics & international relations
Due to the lack of success in climate change mitigation efforts, the importance of adaptation is becoming more and more apparent and is now one of the main imperatives of international research and action. However, research on adaptation is mostly not directly applicable to adaptation policy or practice, leaving a gap between scientific results and practical advice for decision makers and planners. This book seeks to address this problem and bridge the gap and should provide readers with practical and applicable information on climate change adaptation.Following an introduction, the book is organised into four main sections, each reflecting an essential component in the adaptation process. Climate change adaptation is an emerging subject area and has gained increased political and academic attention within the last decade. Whereas most books in the field focus on adaptation in developing countries, this volume provides an examination of predominantly European policy and offers inter-disciplinary insight into cutting edge knowledge and lessons learnt in a relatively new field of implementation.
|Copernicus climate change services and the Climate-ADAPT platform
Linden, P. van der; Buontempo, C. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
European Environment Agency
National adaptation policy processes in European countries - 2014
Biesbroek, R. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
European Environment Agency - ISBN 9789292134846 - 136 p.
This report draws on the results of a self-assessment survey conducted on national adaptation policy processes in Europe. In May 2013, the survey was sent out by the European Environment Agency (EEA) to authorities in countries responsible for coordinating adaptation at national level (the EEA 32 member countries, and in Croatia in July 2013 as a new EU Member State and EEA member country). Some 30 EEA member countries provided their responses on a voluntary basis. Thanks to the high response rate and the wealth of information provided by these European countries, this report presents a unique collection of information and the largest and most comprehensive overview of national adaptation policy processes in Europe, to date.
Future directions for national adaptation policies in Europe
Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. ; Hildén, M. ; Isoard, S. ; Prutsch, A. ; MCCallum, S. - \ 2014
In: National adaptation policy processes in European countries - 2014 Luxembourgh : European Environment Agency (EEA Report No 4/2014) - ISBN 9789292134853 - p. 112 - 114.
Science of adaptation to climate change and science for adaptation
Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. ; Capela Lourenco, T. - \ 2014
Frontiers in Environmental Science 2 (2014). - ISSN 2296-665X - 8 p.
Adaptation to climate change has gained a prominent place next to mitigation on global, national, and local policy agendas. However, while an abundance of adaptation strategies, plans, and programmes have been developed, progress in turning these into action has been slow. The development of a sound knowledge basis to support adaptation globally is suggested to accelerate progress, but has lagged behind. The emphasis in both current and newly proposed programmes is very much on practice-oriented research with strong stakeholder participation. This paper supports such practice-oriented research, but argues that this is insufficient to support adaptation policy and practice in a productive manner. We argue that there is not only a need for science for adaptation, but also a science of adaptation. The paper argues that participatory, practice-oriented research is indeed essential, but has to be complemented by and connected to more fundamental inquiry and concept development, which takes into account knowledge that has been developed in disciplinary sciences and on issues other than climate change adaptation. At the same time, the level and method of participation in science for adaptation should be determined on the basis of the specific project context and goals. More emphasis on science of adaptation can lead to improved understanding of the conditions for successful science for adaptation.
Climate change adaptation planning in agriculture: processes, experiences and lessons learned from early adapters
Bizikova, L. ; Crawford, E. ; Nijnik, M. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 19 (2014)4. - ISSN 1381-2386 - p. 411 - 430.
sustainable adaptation - policy responses - level - vulnerability - states
This paper explores the lessons learned by leaders in agricultural adaptation planning in order to assist other jurisdictions to develop adaptation strategies. It seeks to identify effective institutional, participatory and collaborative processes involved in designing agricultural adaptation strategies at the national and sub-national levels in Germany, Finland, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada. Its methodology is based on review of agricultural adaptation policy documents, research initiatives, stakeholder engagement processes, and cross-sectoral collaborations as well as interviews with key informants such as leaders and actors in adaptation planning. The gathered data show that early adapters have an improved regional and national understanding of climatic impacts, and of the risks to agriculture before the initiation of the planning process. The results indicate that the interplay between bottom-up and top-down initiatives has been crucial in the development of adaptation strategies. The former has provided rich and robust participation in designing, implementing and monitoring adaptations, while the latter was important for prioritizing and legitimizing the development of strategy. It also provided access to high-level decision makers and funding. The results of the study suggest that fostering cross-sectoral collaborations—especially by focusing on broader questions such as the role of agriculture in society—has become an important part of adaptation planning. Finally, our results also stress that adaptation planning in agriculture could be enhanced by skills development and mutual learning across stakeholder groups, research and policy-makers, and through the ongoing interactive development of institutional capabilities.
Learning through collaboration – Knowledge Transfer and Sharing in Climate Change Adaptation. Research between European and developing countries. A CIRCLE-2 research policy brief
Swart, R.J. ; Alberth, J. ; Kuna, B. ; Lillieskold, M. ; Hanzlickova, M. ; Horstmann, B. - \ 2014
Lisbon/Portugal : Foundation of the Faculty of Sciences - 20
klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - kennisoverdracht - milieubeleid - ontwikkelingslanden - landen van de europese unie - climatic change - climate adaptation - knowledge transfer - environmental policy - developing countries - european union countries
From 2004-2009, and from 2009-2014, partners of CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research & Response Coordination for a Larger Europe) have collaborated to fund research and share knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation and the promotion of long-term cooperation among national and regional climate change programmes in Europe.
Productive Science-practice Interactions in Climate Change Adaptation : Lessons from practice. A CIRCLE-2 research policy brief
Groot, A.M.E. ; Hollaender, K. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
Lisbon/Portugal : Foundation of the Faculty of Sciences - 32
klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - kennisoverdracht - milieubeleid - climatic change - climate adaptation - knowledge transfer - environmental policy
In the early stage of a project, it is important to account for a diversity of users. Policy makers and practitioners need to be distinguished from politicians, business managers and other actual decision-makers as they might have different information needs.
|Science-practice interactions for effective climate change adaptation: Identifying new approaches for collaboration between Europe and low-income countries
Swart, Rob - \ 2014
Climate-proofing spatial planning and water management projects: an analysis of 100 local and regional projects in the Netherlands
Sedee, A.G.J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Pater, F. de; Goosen, H. ; Pijnappels, M.H.J. ; Vellinga, P. - \ 2014
Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning 16 (2014)1. - ISSN 1523-908X - p. 55 - 74.
klimaatverandering - regionale planning - waterbeheer - onderzoeksprojecten - inventarisaties - nederland - climatic change - regional planning - water management - research projects - inventories - netherlands - adaptation - strategies
Since the turn of the century, an increasing number of local and regional authorities in Europe started making their city or region resilient to climate change, or ‘climate-proof’. Publications about the actual experiences with implementing these adaptation policies are as yet anecdotal, determined by the local context and the methods applied. In order to identify common processes and characteristics, moving beyond individual cases, this paper systematically assesses 100 spatial planning and water management projects in the Netherlands that included climate resilience as one of their objectives. We derive eight defining characteristics that not only increase climate resilience, but are also found to lead to a greater ‘quality’ of the project area. We structure these properties into a stylized sequence: (i) a longer timeframe, (ii) an integrative and sustainable approach, (iii) consideration of new spatial functions, (iv) a broader spatial context, (v) participation of multiple stakeholders, (vi) new opportunities for entrepreneurs, (vii) increased cost-effectiveness, and (viii) enhanced quality of the project area. The assessment also suggests four process-related conditions that contribute to the success of a project: early incorporation of adaptation; multi-actor collaboration and co-creation of knowledge; integrated, multifunctional and forward-looking solutions; and early political commitment.
Climate adaptation services for the Netherlands: An operational approach to support spatial adaptation planning
Goosen, H. ; Groot, M.A.M. de; Masselink, L. ; Koekoek, A. ; Swart, R.J. ; Bessembinder, J. ; Witte, J.M.P. ; Stuyt, L.C.M. ; Blom-Zandstra, G. ; Immerzeel, W. - \ 2014
Regional Environmental Change 14 (2014)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 1035 - 1048.
landgebruik - klimaatverandering - landgebruiksplanning - stakeholders - kennisoverdracht - land use - climatic change - land use planning - stakeholders - knowledge transfer - decision-support - design - visualization - thinking - tools - maps - gap
There is a growing availability of climate change information, offered to scientists and policy makers through climate services. However, climate services are not well taken up by the policy-making and planning community. Climate services focus on primary impacts of climate change, e.g., the disclosure of precipitation and temperature data, and this seems insufficient in meeting their needs. In this paper, we argue that, in order to reach the spatial planning community, climate services should take on a wider perspective by translating climate data to policy-relevant indicators and by offering support in the design of adaptation strategies. We argue there should be more focus on translating consequences of climate change to land-use claims and subsequently discuss the validity, consequences and implications of these claims with stakeholders, so they can play a role in spatial planning processes where much of the climate adaptation takes place. The term Climate Adaptation Services is introduced as being a stepwise approach supporting the assessment of vulnerability in a wider perspective and include the design and appraisal of adaptation strategies in a multi-stakeholder setting. We developed the Climate Adaptation Atlas and the Climate Ateliers as tools within the Climate Adaptation Services approach to support decision-making and planning processes. In this paper, we describe the different steps of our approach and report how some of the challenges were addressed
EEA Grants Conference: presentation “Too Much, Too Little: The Role of Water in Adaptation to Climate Change”, 7-9 October 2013, Lisbon, Portugal
Swart, Rob - \ 2013
Mediation and the Adaptation Challenge: Identifying appropriate methods and tools
Swart, R.J. ; Singh, T. - \ 2013
Wageningen : Alterra
klimaatadaptatie - beleidsprocessen - beleidsondersteuning - climate adaptation - policy processes - policy support
The MEDIATION project guides researchers, policy advisors and experts to suitable climate change adaptation methods and tools for a wide range of questions and from various disciplines and perspectives. The project involves 11 partners and 11 case studies. Summaries of five of these case studies can be found in the present publication.
Beyond vulnerability assessment
Swart, R.J. ; Fuss, S. ; Obersteiner, M. ; Ruti, P. ; Teichmann, C. ; Vautard, R. - \ 2013
Nature Climate Change 3 (2013). - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 942 - 943.
Turning points in climate change adaptation
Werners, S.E. ; Swart, R.J. ; Slobbe, E.J.J. van; Bölscher, T. ; Pfenninger, S. ; Trombi, G. ; Moriondo, M. - \ 2013
Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change
Werners, S.E. ; Pfenninger, S. ; Slobbe, E.J.J. van; Haasnoot, M. ; kwakkel, J.H. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2013
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 5 (2013)3-4. - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 334 - 340.
klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - onzekerheidsanalyse - climatic change - climate adaptation - uncertainty analysis - social-ecological systems - decision-making - policy-makers - adaptation - science - uncertainty - information - world - transitions - 4-degrees-c
We review four bodies of literature that suggest that thresholds, tipping and turning points are important focal points for sustainability under climate change that can help bridge the science–policy interface. For decision-makers a critical threshold is reached, the moment that climate change renders policy untenable and alternative strategies must be considered.
We review four bodies of literature that suggest that thresholds, tipping and turning points are important focal points for sustainability under climate change that can help bridge the science-policy interface. For decision-makers a critical threshold is reached, the moment that climate change renders policy untenable and alternative strategies must be considered. A focus on thresholds and tipping points allows for a salient and credible dialogue between decision-makers and scientists about the amount of acceptable change, when unacceptable conditions could occur, how likely these conditions are and what adaptation pathways to consider. Uncertainty can be communicated as the time range in which a critical threshold is likely to be exceeded.
On the contribution of Knowledge for Climate to the development of JPI Climate in 2012
Swart, R.J. ; Bessembinder, J. ; Driessen, P. - \ 2012
Utrecht : National Research Programme Knowledge for Climate (Knowledge for Climate 91/2013) - 88
klimaatverandering - kennisoverdracht - europa - climatic change - knowledge transfer - europe
From 2008 to 2012, Knowledge for Climate contributed to the development of the Joint Programming Initiative “Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe” (JPI Climate). In 2010, a proposal was developed and accepted, followed in 2011 by the development and adoption of a governance structure and a stra-tegic research agenda. The Initiative is now supported by 13 member and 2 ob-server countries as well as the European Commission and 4 other observer in-stitutions. In 2012, JPI Climate was formally launched in Brussels, financial sup-port was obtained for the Commission in the form of a Coordination and Sup-port Action (CSA), new steps were taken towards the alignment of climate re-search programmes in the participating countries, and first steps were taken towards the development of a first joint call, planned to be launched in 2013. This report summarizes the Dutch involvement in the programme in 2012, in-cluding the organization of meetings of the Governing and Transdisciplinary Advisory Boards, workshops and chairmanship of Working Group 4 on Decision-Support Methods and Tools. Because of strongly decreased priority of climate research in The Netherlands, no successful connection was yet made with NWO top sector research policy or other Dutch funding sources. The report discusses the future plans and collaborations.
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
Vuuren, D.P. van; Riahi, K. ; Moss, R. ; Edmonds, J. ; Thomson, A. ; Nakicenovic, N. ; Kram, T. ; Berkhout, F. ; Swart, R.J. ; Janetos, A. ; Rose, S.K. ; Arnell, N. - \ 2012
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 22 (2012)1. - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 21 - 35.
expert judgments - impact assessment - vulnerability - costs - stabilization - adaptation - strategies
In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.
Urban Vulnerability Indicators. A joint report of ETC-CCA and ETC-SIA
Swart, R.J. ; Fons, J. ; Geertsema, W. ; Hove, L.W.A. van; Jacobs, C.M.J. - \ 2012
Bologna : ETC CCA (Technical Report 01/2012) - 178 p.
Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe: Challenges and opportunities for cities together with supportive national and European policies
Georgi, B. ; Swart, R.J. ; Marinova, N. ; Hove, B. van; Jacobs, C.M.J. ; Klostermann, J.E.M. - \ 2012
Copenhagen : EEA (EEA report 2/2012) - ISBN 9789292133085 - 148
klimaatverandering - stedelijke gebieden - milieubeleid - climatic change - urban areas - environmental policy
Climate change leading to higher temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and sea level rise, is a reality in Europe. Climate change mitigation measures will limit the magnitude and rate of related events in the future, but they will not prevent them. Pro-active adaptation to climate change is therefore imperative. While urban adaptation to climate change at a first glance may seem to be purely a local governance issue, the strong connections between European cities and their surrounding regions, or countries, warrant a broader perspective.
Joint Programming Initiative Climate
Swart, R.J. ; Berkhout, F. ; Deelen, C.L. van; Driessen, P.P.J. - \ 2012
Knowledge for Climate (KfC report Kfc046/2012) - ISBN 9789490070533 - 89
klimaatverandering - ontwikkelingsprogramma's - wetenschappelijk onderzoek - climatic change - development programmes - scientific research
From 2008 to 2011, Knowledge for Climate contributed to the development of the Joint Programming Initiative “Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe” (JPI Climate). In 2010, a proposal was developed and accepted, followed in 2011 by the development and adoption of a governance structure and a strategic research agenda. The Initiative is supported by 12 member and 3 observer countries. It is expected to play a major role in aligning climate research programmes in the participating countries and developing joint activities to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of national programmes. This report summarizes the most important documents and the Dutch involvement in the programme, including the development of a Vision Paper. It also discusses the future plans and collaborations.
Climate Adaptation – modelling water scenarios and sectoral impacts. Final Report ClimWatAdapt project
Florke, M.F. ; Wimmer, F. ; Laaser, C. ; Vidaurre, R. ; Troltzsch, J. ; Dworak, T. ; Stein, U. ; Marinova, N.A. ; Jaspers, A.M.J. ; Ludwig, F. ; Swart, R.J. ; Hoang, L.P. ; Giupponi, C. ; Bosello, F. ; Mysiak, J. - \ 2011
Kassel, Germany : CESR – Center for Environmental Systems Research - 158 p.
Climate Change Risk Management in Transnational River Basins: The Rhine
Pelt, S.C. van; Swart, R.J. - \ 2011
Water Resources Management 25 (2011)14. - ISSN 0920-4741 - p. 3837 - 3861.
klimaatverandering - hydrologie van stroomgebieden - afvoer - risicobeheersing - rijn - climatic change - catchment hydrology - discharge - risk management - river rhine - impact - model - adaptation - temperature - flood - uncertainties - precipitation - netherlands - cooperation - projections
Climate change is likely to have an impact on the discharge of the European river Rhine. To base adaptation strategies, to deal with these changing river discharges, on the best scientific and technical knowledge, it is important to understand potential climate impacts, as well as the capacity of social and natural systems to adapt. Both are characterized by large uncertainties, at different scales, that range from individual to local to regional to international. This review paper addresses three challenges. Dealing with climate change uncertainties for the development of adaptation strategies is the first challenge. We find that communication of uncertainties in support of river basin adaptation planning generally only covers a small part of the spectrum of prevailing uncertainties, e.g. by using only one model or scenario and one approach to deal with the uncertainties. The second challenge identified in this paper is to overcome the current mismatch of supply of scientific knowledge by scientists and the demand by policy makers. Early experiences with ‘assess-risk-of-policy’ approaches analysis of options, starting from the resilience of development plans, suggests that this approach better responds to policy makers’ needs. The third challenge is to adequately capture the transnational character of the Rhine river basin in research and policy. Development and implementation of adaptation options derived from integrated analysis at the full river basin level, rather than within the boundaries of the riparian countries, can offer new opportunities, but will also meet many practical challenges.
Emerging climate change coastal adaptation strategies and sase studies around the world
Marinez, G. ; Bizikova, L. ; Blobel, D. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2011
In: Global Change and Baltic Coastal Zones / Schernewski, G., Hofstee, J., Neumann, T., Springer (Coastal Research Library 1) - ISBN 9789400703995 - p. 249 - 273.
Presently about 40% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of a coastline. Climate Change and sea level rise being a relatively new policy challenge, experience as to the choice and design of appropriate response measures is scarce and fragmented in coastal areas. Increasing the availability and transfer of pertinent knowledge across national boundaries can assist in furthering coastal safety. This chapter focuses on the management of adaptation activities encompassed by the RADOST (Regional Adaptation Strategies for the German Baltic Sea Coast) project and its international partner regions. Attention is given to the operationalization of regional adaptation measures, ways to increase resilience, as well as to regional adaptive governance and learning processes. Success factors to increase the resilience of coastal areas include cooperation of a broad range of organizations and the engagement of stakeholders; carefully planning of a sequence of policies and measures over time; designating risk areas; revising principles for natural resources management along the coasts; awareness raising about preferred development practices; and integrating climate concerns with other social, economic and environmental objectives. This requires maintaining connections to existing policy and decision-making processes and building or strengthening partnerships among the relevant sectors of the local or regional communities
Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community - Proceedings of IS-ENES/EEA/CIRCLE-2, 11-12 January 2011
Swart, R.J. ; Avelar, D. - \ 2011
Kopenhagen : EEA - 50 p.
Uncertainties Workshop Proceedings: CIRCLE-2 workshop on Uncertainties in Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
Pelt, S.C. van; Avelar, D. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2011
[S.l] : S.n. - 29 p.
Circle-2: Deltas Cooperation in Europe
Swart, Rob - \ 2010
What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions? A letter
Vuuren, D.P. van; Edmonds, J. ; Smith, S.J. ; Calvin, K.V. ; Karas, J. ; Kainuma, M. ; Nakicenovic, N. ; Riahi, K. ; Ruijven, B.J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Thomson, A. - \ 2010
Climatic Change 103 (2010)3-4. - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 635 - 642.
carbon-dioxide - sres scenarios - energy - future - trends - model
Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years) Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them
Policy options in a worst case climate change world
Swart, R.J. ; Marinova, N.A. - \ 2010
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15 (2010)6. - ISSN 1381-2386 - p. 531 - 549.
albedo enhancement - carbon-dioxide - schemes - capture - system - energy - cycle - air - co2
Climatic changes more rapid and extreme than assessed by the IPCC cannot be excluded, because of the possibility of positive earth system feedbacks and thresholds. Do today's policy makers have to take these into account, and if so, are the options different from those considered today? The paper briefly summarizes the types of extreme climatic changes noted in the literature and then evaluates the options to address them in a what-if manner. Different from other studies, which usually look at only one type of measure, we consider a broader portfolio of options: drastic emissions reduction programmes, drawing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere ("carbon dioxide removal"), "emergency cooling" through influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere ("solar radiation management"), and finally adaptation beyond the options considered seriously today. Politics will have to decide on the choice or mix of "emergency" measures, but research can ensure that such decisions are based on the best scientific information. If through concerted international efforts to mitigate greenhouse emissions low stabilization levels could be reached, such decisions may never have to be made. However, research in support of some form of a "plan B" is now warranted, focusing on those options that have the most positive ratio between potential effectiveness and feasibility on the one hand, and environmental and political risks on the other hand. Such plan should not be limited to one set of options such as geo-engineering and should explicitly take into account not only the relationships between the options but also the wide variety in characteristics of the individual options in terms of effectiveness, feasibility, environmental risks, and political implications.
CIRCLE 2 policy brief: Communicate uncertainties- design climate adaptation measures to be flexible and robust
Pelt, S.C. van; Avelar, D. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2010
- p. 1 - 3.
This policy brief is directed towards funders and managers of climate change impacts and adaptation research programmes as well as policy makers in this area. It notes various challenges in addressing uncertainties in climate change research and policy and provides suggestions on how to address them. Projections of future climate change and associated impacts are riddled with uncertainties – a great challenge at all levels of policy- and decision-making. There is uncertainty about observed climate changes and its past effects on natural and human systems. There is uncertainty about the current state of the environment and its resilience to changes. And there is even larger uncertainty about future changes in the climate system and their potential consequences for the environment and human societies. Planning for climate change adaptation (e.g. developing political strategies or deciding on the implementation of adaptation measures) is a relatively new challenge for national and local decision makers. Planners and managers across sectors have to take decisions now about future strategies, measures and investments that are expected to protect their systems against potential climate vulnerabilities. This means taking into consideration an immense and yet growing amount knowledge and data about climate change projections, socio-economic scenarios, and methods for assessing impacts and vulnerabilities. In order to account for national and local decision makers’ perspectives and support better informed decisions, knowledge about the climate system and impacts has to be communicated in a clear and meaningful way taking proper account of associated uncertainties. New focused research is required to advance the knowledge and understanding of how to present uncertainty so that it can inform policy and decision makers most effectively. At the same time, training should be provided to the current and next generation of researchers to communicate effectively on these complex issues. Policy makers should be supported to appreciate and interpret the uncertainty information that science is providing.
Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios
Manning, M.R. ; Edmonds, J. ; Emori, S. ; Grubler, A. ; Hibbard, K. ; Joos, F. ; Kainuma, M. ; Keeling, R.F. ; Kram, T. ; Manning, A.C. ; Meinshausen, M. ; Moss, R. ; Nakicenovic, N. ; Riahi, K. ; Rose, S.K. ; Smith, S. ; Swart, R.J. ; Vuuren, D.P. van - \ 2010
Nature Geoscience 3 (2010)6. - ISSN 1752-0894 - p. 376 - 377.
Europe adapts to climate change: comparing national adaptation strategies
Biesbroek, G.R. ; Swart, R.J. ; Carter, T.R. ; Cowan, C. ; Henrichs, T. ; Mela, H. ; Morcecroft, M.D. ; Rey, D. - \ 2010
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 20 (2010)3. - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 440 - 450.
social-ecological systems - boundary organizations - policy - governance - science - vulnerability - capacity - scales - uk
For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). This paper reviews seven National Adaptation Strategies that were either formally adopted or under development by Member States at the end of 2008. The strategies are analysed under the following six themes. Firstly, the factors motivating and facilitating the development of a national adaptation strategy. Secondly, the scientific and technical support needed for the development and implementation of such a strategy. Thirdly, the role of the strategy in information, communication and awareness-raising of the adaptation issue. Fourthly, new or existing forms of multi-level governance to implement the proposed actions. Fifthly, how the strategy addresses integration and coordination with other policy domains. Finally, how the strategy suggests the implementation and how the strategy is evaluated. The paper notes that the role of National Adaptation Strategies in the wider governance of adaptation differs between countries but clearly benchmarks a new political commitment to adaptation at national policy levels. However, we also find that in most cases approaches for implementing and evaluating the strategies are yet to be defined. The paper concludes that even though the strategies show great resemblance in terms of topics, methods and approaches, there are many institutional challenges, including multi-level governance and policy integration issues, which can act as considerable barriers in future policy implementation
Climate Adaptation – modelling water scenarios and sectoral impacts
Florke, M.F. ; Wimmer, F. ; Laaser, C. ; Vidaurre, R. ; Troltzsch, J. ; Dworak, T. ; Stein, U. ; Marinova, N.A. ; Jaspers, F. ; Ludwig, F. ; Swart, R.J. ; Hoang, L.P. ; Giupponi, C. ; Bosello, F. ; Mysiak, J. - \ 2009
Kassel : CESR – Center for Environmental Systems Research - 31 p.
Policy options to respond to rapid climate change
Swart, R.J. ; Marinova, N.A. ; Bakker, S. ; Tilburg, X. van - \ 2009
Wageningen : Alterra (Policy implications of extreme climate change scenarios ) - 166
klimaatverandering - broeikasgassen - emissie - kooldioxide - milieubeleid - climatic change - greenhouse gases - emission - carbon dioxide - environmental policy
Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme climatic changes in an integrated, systematic fashion. It distinguishes four main categories of emergency response options: drastic emission reduction, carbon dioxide removal, solar radiation management and enhanced adaptation to unavoidable consequences. These options may also become relevant if natural or social systems would turn out to be more vulnerable than until recently assumed or if current mitigation efforts would be unsuccessful
Europe's onshore and offshore wind energy potential : An assessment of environmental and economic constraints
Swart, R.J. ; Coppens, C. ; Gordijn, H. ; Piek, M. ; Ruyssenaars, P. ; Schrander, J.J. ; Smet, P. de; Hoogwijk, M. ; Papalexandrou, M. ; Visser, E. de; Horalek, J. ; Kurfürst, P. ; Jensen, F.P. ; Petersen, B.S. ; Harfoot, M. ; Milego, R. ; Clausen, N.E. ; Giebel, G. - \ 2009
Copenhagen : European Environment Agency (EEA Technical report 6/2009) - ISBN 9789292130008 - 90 p.
|Preparations for the establisment of European Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Clearinghouse- Sharing of good practice in the EU
Swart, Rob - \ 2009
Climate change versus development: trade-offs and synergies
Swart, R.J. - \ 2009
London, United Kingdom : Policy Network - 12
klimaatverandering - opwarming van de aarde - ontwikkeling - armoede - honger - climatic change - global warming - development - poverty - hunger
Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC
Swart, R.J. ; Benstein, L. ; Duong, L.M. ; Petersen, A. - \ 2009
Climatic Change 92 (2009)1-2. - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 1 - 29.
change assessments - probabilities - likelihood - scenarios - science
Dealing consistently with risk and uncertainty across the IPCC reports is a difficult challenge. Huge practical difficulties arise from the Panel’s scale and interdisciplinary context, the complexity of the climate change issue and its political context. The key question of this paper is if the observed differences in the handling of uncertainties by the three IPCC Working Groups can be clarified. To address this question, the paper reviews a few key issues on the foundations of uncertainty analysis, and summarizes the history of the treatment of uncertainty by the IPCC. One of the key findings is that there is reason to agree to disagree: the fundamental differences between the issues covered by the IPCC’s three interdisciplinary Working Groups, between the type of information available, and between the dominant paradigms of the practitioners, legitimately lead to different approaches. We argue that properly using the IPCC’s Guidance Notes for Lead Authors for addressing uncertainty, adding a pedigree analysis for key findings, and particularly communicating the diverse nature of uncertainty to the users of the assessment would increase the quality of the assessment. This approach would provide information about the nature of the uncertainties in addition to their magnitude and the confidence assessors have in their findings
Background report for the workshop "Design of guidelines for the elaboration of regional climate change adaptations strategies"
Ribeiro, M.M. ; Losenno, C. ; Dworak, T. ; Massey, E. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2009
Berlin : Ecologic - Institute for International and European Environmental Policy - 16
klimaatverandering - richtlijnen (guidelines) - europa - climatic change - guidelines - europe
European air quality maps 2005 including uncertainty analysis
Horalek, J. ; Smet, L.C.P.M. de; Leeuw, F. de; Denby, B. ; Swart, R.J. ; Kurfust, P. - \ 2009
Bilthoven : The European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC technical paper 2007/7)
luchtkwaliteit - kaarten - ozon - zwaveldioxide - europa - air quality - maps - ozone - sulfur dioxide - europe
The objective of this report is (a) the updating and refinement of European air quality maps based on annual statistics of the 2005 observational data reported by EEA Member countries in 2006, and (b) the further improvement of the interpolation methodologies. The paper presents the results achieved and an uncertainty analysis of the interpolated maps and builds upon earlier reports from Horalék et al. (2005; 2007).
Europe adapts to climate change. Comparing National Adaptation Strategies in Europe
Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. ; Binnerup, S. ; Carter, T. ; Cowan, C. ; Henrichs, T. ; Loquen, S. ; Mela, H. ; Morecroft, M. ; Reese, M. ; Rey, D. - \ 2009
Helsinki : PEER (PEER Report / Partnership of European Environmental Research no. 1) - ISBN 9789521134517 - 283
klimaatverandering - milieubeleid - adaptatie - europa - governance - risicobeheersing - climatic change - environmental policy - adaptation - europe - governance - risk management
Climate Change is happening. Even if global emission reductions and mitigation efforts over the next decades prove to be successful, a signifi cant amount of human-induced climate change has become inevitable. In addition to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, many EU countries are therefore developing and putting in place adaptation strategies to help them cope with the expected impacts of climate change. This report presents a comparative analysis of national adaptation strategies in a sample of European countries. The primary objectives of this study are to identify policy-relevant fi ndings and formulate recommendations for further research. Through these objectives, this report aims at providing both policy makers and research managers with enhanced insights into the variety of approaches taken by countries and knowledge gaps, and to thus facilitate the exchange of information on how to tackle adaptation across Europe and develop relevant research agendas. Our focus is on national level strategies, examining top-down approaches to and coordination of adaptation measures in each country. There is clearly also an important role for bottom-up action, action which is often already taking place at the local scale, where climate impacts are expected to be experienced. This is covered in a parallel PEER report (Mickwitz et al., 2009). The report is structured around six key themes that were identifi ed by the research team on the basis of an initial inventory as distinctive elements of all the National Adaptation Strategies (NASs) that have been analysed. We examine how the countries have approached each of these themes, analyse how much progress has been made and identify policy needs and research gaps that we believe will help improve understanding and enhance the implementation of adaptation policy at the national level. The six themes are:
1. Motivating and facilitating factors for strategy development
2. Science-policy interactions and the place of research
3. The role of communicating adaptation
4. Multi-level governance in shaping and delivering National Adaptation Strategies
5. The integration of adaptation into sectoral policies
6. The role of policy monitoring, review and enforcement
Adaptatie van infrastructuur aan klimaatverandering: strategieën in andere landen
Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. - \ 2009
Wageningen : Wageningen UR, Alterra (Alterra-rapport 1826) - 64
klimaatverandering - infrastructuur - planning - risicoschatting - overheidsbeleid - beleid - internationale samenwerking - nederland - europa - climatic change - infrastructure - planning - risk assessment - government policy - policy - international cooperation - netherlands - europe
In deze notitie wordt bekeken hoe in andere landen wordt omgegaan met aanpassing aan klimaatverandering op het gebied van infrastructuur, met het accent op zes dimensies: risicobenadering, omgaan met onzekerheden, afwegingskaders, afstemming tussen bestuursniveau’s, beleidsintegratie, en internationale samenwerking. Met uitzondering van de watersector is infrastructuur over het algemeen niet het beleidsterrein waar aanpassing aan klimaatverandering zich vooralsnog primair op richt, behalve in een aantal landen waar de infrastructuur bijzonder kwetsbaar is, zoals in pool- en berggebieden. De notitie trekt dan ook lessen vanuit een breder beleidsterrein dan uitsluitend infrastructuur. Nederland samen met het Verenigd Koninkrijk speelt een voortrekkersrol bij klimaatadaptatie. Dat sluit echter niet uit dat uit vergelijking met andere landen geen interessante lessen af te leiden zijn. Ook buiten Europa ( Canada en Australië) zijn waardevolle voorbeelden en ervaringen te vinden over infrastructuur en klimaatverandering. De notitie leidt uit deze ervaringen in andere landen een aantal aanbevelingen af voor de verdere ontwikkeling van adaptatiebeleid in de infrastructurele sector en identificeert een aantal relevante kennislacunes.
The mitigation–adaptation dichotomy and the role of spatial planning
Biesbroek, G.R. ; Swart, R.J. ; Knaap, W.G.M. van der - \ 2009
Habitat International 33 (2009)3. - ISSN 0197-3975 - p. 230 - 237.
climate-change adaptation - sustainable development - river-basins - policy - governance - framework - capacity - science - uncertainty - management
There is a growing awareness that both adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to reduce the impacts of climate change. Historically, due to a wide variety of reasons, mitigation and adaptation have been framed by scientists and policy makers as two different approaches to deal with the same problem: climate change. As a result, there are large differences in the way knowledge is produced, the analytical approaches that are used, and the designed policy strategies. This paper discusses the origin of the adaptation¿mitigation dichotomy. Second, the paper addresses the relationship between climate change responses and spatial planning since there is a growing awareness that spatial planning can function as a switchboard for mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development objectives. Furthermore, the paper explores the role that spatial planning can play in developing effective mitigation and adaptation options in an integrated manner, searching for synergies and trade-offs. This creates the necessity to take climate change responses into account in spatial planning practices. We argue that climate change could also lead to changes in the traditional administrative structures that spatial planners are accustomed to. Since many of the main impacts of climate change have a water dimension, we discuss the river basin approach as the new administrative level at which spatial planning can increase the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation measures and integrate these into other sustainable development policies.
Climate Change 2007 : Synthesis Report : An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Bernstein, L. ; Bosch, P. ; Canziani, O. ; Chen, Z. ; Christ, R. ; Davidson, O. ; Hare, W. ; Huq, S. ; Karoly, D. ; Kattsov, V. ; Kundzewicz, Z.W. ; Liu, J. ; Lohmann, U. ; Manning, M. ; Matsuno, T. ; Menne, B. ; Metz, B. ; Mirza, M. ; Nicholls, N. ; Nurse, L. ; Pachauri, R. ; Palutikof, J. ; Parrry, M. ; Qin, D. ; Ravindranath, N.H. ; Reisinger, A. ; Ren, J. ; Riahi, K. ; Rosenzweig, C. ; Rusticucci, M. ; Schneider, S. ; Sokona, Y. ; Solomon, S. ; Stott, P. ; Stouffer, R. ; Sugiyama, T. ; Swart, R.J. ; Tirpak, D. ; Vogel, C. ; Yohe, G. - \ 2008
Geneva, Switzerland : IPCC - ISBN 9789291691227 - 104
klimaatverandering - beoordeling - opwarming van de aarde - internationale organisaties - climatic change - assessment - global warming - international organizations
Impacts of Europe's changing climate- 2008 indicator-based assessment
Swart, R.J. - \ 2008
Copenhagen : European Environment Agency (EEA) (EEA report no. 4/2008) - ISBN 9789291673728 - 246
klimaatverandering - waterkwaliteit - ecosystemen - biodiversiteit - landgebruik - milieufactoren - beoordeling - europa - climatic change - water quality - ecosystems - biodiversity - land use - environmental factors - assessment - europe
The report presents past and projected climate change and impacts in Europe by means of about 40 indicators and identifies sectors and regions most vulnerable with a high need for adaptation. The report covers the following indicator categories: atmosphere and climate, cryosphere, marine biodiversity and ecosystems, water quantity (including river floods and droughts), freshwater quality and biodiversity, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, soil, agriculture and forestry, human health. Furthermore the report shows the need for adaptation actions at EU, national and regional level and the need for enhanced monitoring, data collection and exchange and reducing uncertainties in projections. The report is a joined effort of the European Environment Agency (EEA), the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC-IES) and the World Health Organisation Europe (WHO)
Influence of future air pollution mitigation strategies on total aerosol radiative forcing
Kloster, S. ; Dentener, F. ; Feichter, J. ; Raes, F. ; Aardenne, J.A. van; Roeckner, E. ; Lohmann, U. ; Stier, P. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2008
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 8 (2008)21. - ISSN 1680-7316 - p. 6405 - 6437.
climate model echam5-ham - global sulfate distribution - cloud microphysics - greenhouse-gas - sulfur cycle - emissions - impact - simulation - albedo - flux
We apply different aerosol and aerosol precursor emission scenarios reflecting possible future control strategies for air pollution in the ECHAM5-HAM model, and simulate the resulting effect on the Earth's radiation budget. We use two opposing future mitigation strategies for the year 2030: one in which emission reduction legislation decided in countries throughout the world are effectively implemented (current legislation; CLE 2030) and one in which all technical options for emission reductions are being implemented independent of their cost (maximum feasible reduction; MFR 2030). We consider the direct, semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols. The total anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere radiation between 2000 and pre-industrial times amounts to -2.00 W/m2. In the future this negative global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing will only slightly change (+0.02 W/m2) under the "current legislation" scenario. Regionally, the effects are much larger: e.g. over Eastern Europe radiative forcing would increase by +1.50 W/m2 because of successful aerosol reduction policies, whereas over South Asia it would decrease by -1.10 W/m2 because of further growth of emissions. A "maximum feasible reduction" of aerosols and their precursors would lead to an increase of the global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing by +1.13 W/m2. Hence, in the latter case, the present day negative anthropogenic aerosol forcing could be more than halved by 2030 because of aerosol reduction policies and climate change thereafter will be to a larger extent be controlled by greenhouse gas emissions. We combined these two opposing future mitigation strategies for a number of experiments focusing on different sectors and regions. In addition, we performed sensitivity studies to estimate the importance of future changes in oxidant concentrations and the importance of the aerosol microphysical coupling within the range of expected future changes. For changes in oxidant concentrations caused by future air pollution mitigation, we do not find a significant effect for the global annual mean radiative aerosol forcing. In the extreme case of only abating SO2 or carbonaceous emissions to a maximum feasible extent, we find deviations from additivity for the radiative forcing over anthropogenic source regions up to 10% compared to an experiment abating both at the same time.
|Europe adapts to climate change. Status of developing National Adaptation Strategies in Europe
Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. ; Binnerup, S. ; Carter, T. ; Cowan, C. ; Henrichs, T. ; Loquen, S. ; Mela, H. ; Morecroft, M. ; Reese, M. ; Rey, D. - \ 2008
Partnership of European Environmental Research: climate projects 2008
Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. - \ 2008
klimaatverandering - landen van de europese unie - milieu - onderzoeksprojecten - internationale samenwerking - climatic change - european union countries - environment - research projects - international cooperation
Powerpoint presentation about the Partnership of European environmental research: climate projects 2008. This presentation is about the TOLERATE conference of May 19th 2008
PEER project 1A: A comparative analysis of national adaptation strategies in European Countries
Biesbroek, G.R. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2008
In the late 1990s, European countries started the development of adaptation responses to climate change, spearheaded by a few frontrunners such as Finland and the United Kingdom. From 2005, activities accelerated in various other countries, several of which do now have national adaptation strategies. In this new and rapidly evolving area it is useful to learn from each other¿s approaches and experiences. The paper reports on the preliminary results of a comparative analysis of national adaptation action in a dozen EU countries, a project performed by the Partnership of European Environmental Research institutions (PEER). It looks specifically at a number of dimensions, such as the balance between a government-driven top-down approach and a stakeholder-driven bottom-up approach, the way scientific information is developed and made available to adaptation planning, and the problem of multi-level governance. Some illustrative cases are described.
|A comparative analysis of national adaptation strategies in Europe
Biesbroek, G.R. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2008
Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model
Minnen, J.G. van; Strengers, B.J. ; Eickhout, B. ; Swart, R.J. ; Leemans, R. - \ 2008
Carbon Balance and Management 3 (2008). - ISSN 1750-0680 - 20 p.
Background - Carbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C) fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies. Results - Two different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75–80% or more. Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5–7% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities. Conclusion - Carbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO2. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local communities and the environment. Carbon plantations are, however, particularly effective in the long term. Furthermore, plantations do not offer the ultimate solution towards stabilizing CO2 concentrations but should be part of a broader package of options with clear energy emission reduction measures.
Sustainable Development and Mitigation
Sathaye, J. ; Najam, A. ; Cocklin, C. ; Heller, T. ; Lecocq, F. ; Llanes, J. ; Pan, J. ; Rayner, S. ; Robinson, J. ; Schaeffer, R. ; Sokona, Y. ; Swart, R.J. ; Winkler, H. - \ 2007
In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change / Metz, B., Davidson, O.R., Bosch, P.R., Dave, R., Meyer, L.A., Cambridge, NY : Cambridge University Press - ISBN 9780521705981 - p. 691 - 743.
Uncertainty management in the IPCC: Agreeing to disagree
Ha-Duong, M. ; Swart, R.J. ; Petersen, A. ; Bernstein, L. - \ 2007
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 17 (2007). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 8 - 11.
Are national greenhouse gas emissions reports scientifically valid
Swart, R.J. ; Bergamaschi, P. ; Pulles, T. ; Raes, F. - \ 2007
Climate Policy 7 (2007)6. - ISSN 1469-3062 - p. 535 - 538.
While countries have recently been accused of misreporting greenhouse gas emissions for their benefit, internationally agreed procedures minimize such possibilities and allow for new scientific results to be taken into account in a stepwise manner.
Climate assessment: what's next?
Raes, F. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2007
Science 318 (2007)5855. - ISSN 0036-8075 - p. 1386 - 1386.
Making integration of adaption and mitigation work: mainstreaming into sustainable development policies?
Swart, R.J. ; Raes, F. - \ 2007
Climate Policy 7 (2007)4. - ISSN 1469-3062 - p. 288 - 303.
climate-change policy - capacity
Can an integrated approach to mitigation and adaptation offer opportunities for a more effective response to climate change than the current strategies? The nature of the linkages depends on the dimensions: economic, institutional or environmental, and on the scale. Differences are pervasive: adaptation and mitigation usually have different temporal and spatial scales and are mostly relevant for different economic sectors, so that costs and benefits are distributed differently. The article concludes that generally the global, regional and - in most countries - national potential of synergetic options to mitigate and adapt to climate change is relatively low, and both strategies should be considered as complementary. However, a few notable exceptions are identified in the land and water management and urban planning sectors, in particular in countries or locations where these sectors provide important adaptation and mitigation opportunities. What is the theoretically most efficient and least expensive mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies may not be a very urgent policy question. Instead, five pragmatic ways of broadening climate policy are suggested, while taking into account the linkages between adaptation and mitigation: (1) avoiding trade-offs - when designing policies for mitigation or adaptation, (2) identifying synergies, (3) enhancing response capacity, (4) developing institutional links between adaptation and mitigation - e.g. in national institutions and in international negotiations, and (5) mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation considerations into broader sustainable development policies
Spatial mapping of air quality for European scale assessment
Horálek, J. ; Denby, B. ; Smet, P. de; Leeuw, F. de; Kurfürst, P. ; Swart, R.J. ; Noije, T. van - \ 2006
Bilthoven : ETC/ACC (2006 6) - 182
luchtkwaliteit - cartografie - europa - geografische informatiesystemen - air quality - mapping - europe - geographical information systems