Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Foresight promotion report for policy & decision-makers : Work Package 4 – Institutional strengthening, Task 4.3 – Promote Foresight activities
    Leitner, M. ; Bentz, J. ; Lourenço, Tiago Capela ; Swart, R.J. ; Coninx, I. ; Allenbach, Karin ; Thibaut Rohat, Guillaume - \ 2019
    Lisbon : Placard - 57 p.
    Foresight workshop summary: The future of Europe depends on how it manages the risks of climate extremes : Foresight: December 2018 Workshop summary
    Leitner, M. ; Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. ; Lourenço, Tiago Capela - \ 2019
    Lisbon : Placard - 36 p.
    This report is partly based on the The future of Europe and the future of climate action: reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by Jonathan Gaventa and Manon Dufour, E3G; Martin Nesbit and Kamila Paquel, IEEP and Radostina Primova, HBS EU and mostly on the PLACARD Foresight workshop: facing the future of Europe’s climate – EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads One of the working streams of PLACARD is to promote foresight. Foresight is a method to try out a set of forward-looking approaches that help decision-makers explore and anticipate what might happen. This allows decision-makers to prepare for a range of possible futures, and influence and shape those futures.
    Assessing physical climate risks for investments: A risky promise
    Swart, Rob - \ 2019
    Climate Services 14 (2019). - ISSN 2405-8807 - p. 15 - 18.
    The world’s financial sector is making significant strides to account for both transition and physical climate risks in investments. The latter holds promise for increasing resilience. But effective frameworks for characterising physical risks for different types of investors and investments are as yet missing or often not used, and avoidance of investments in high-risk areas may counter the positive effects. This short commentary starts to characterise the promises and pitfalls of climate risk assessment in the financial sector and proposes a conceptual framework to capture the main dimensions. A stronger and collaborative role for public and private climate service providers is suggested to upgrade climate risk assessments for financial actors.
    Adaptation policy at supranational level? Evidence from the European Union
    Biesbroek, G.R. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2019
    In: Research Handbook on Climate Change Adaptation Policy / Keskitalo, E.C.H., Preston, B.L., Edward Elgar Publishing (Social and Political Science 2019 ) - ISBN 9781786432513 - p. 194 - 211.
    The European Union (EU) is a supranational entity for which climate change adaptation has become an important policy topic. This chapter seeks to address the question of how the EU currently governs climate change adaptation. The authors show how the open method of coordination as governing logic offers the possibility for the European Commission to mainstream climate change adaptation considerations through the acquiscommunautaire. Moreover, this approach also offers the Commission the possibility to stimulate the exchange of best practices, setting up new policy, practice and knowledge networks, involving non-governmental organizations and the private sector in adaptation, and to facilitate coordination and cooperation between member states and regions. Beyond these mostly procedural policy tools, however, the EU has very limited power to force member states to start adapting. The authors reflect on what these insights from the EU mean for governing climate change adaptation at the supranational level in general.
    How could climate services support disaster risk reduction in the 21st century
    Street, R.B. ; Buontempo, C. ; Mysiak, J. ; Karali, E. ; Pulquério, M. ; Murray, V. ; Swart, R. - \ 2019
    International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 34 (2019). - ISSN 2212-4209 - p. 28 - 33.
    Climate services - DRR decision-support - Post-2015 agenda

    In January 2018, three leading European initiatives on climate services (CS) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiated a discussion on how the DRR community could be best served by new and emerging CS. The aim was to identify challenges and opportunities for delivery of effective operational disaster risk management and communication informed by an understanding of future climate risks. The resulting discussion engaged experts from civil protection, health, insurance, engineering and the climate service community. Discussions and subsequent reflections recognised that CS can strengthen all phases of the DRR cycle and that there are lessons to learn from experience that could enhance and demonstrate the value of CS supporting the DRR community. For this to happen, however, the supporting information should be relevant, accessible, legitimate and credible and engage both service supply and demand sides. It was also agreed that there was need for identifiable and credible champions recognised as providing leadership and focal points for the development, delivery and evaluation of CS supporting DRR. This paper summarises the identified key challenges (e.g. disconnection between CS and DRR; accessibility of relevant and quality-controlled information; understanding of information needs; and understanding the role of CS and its link to the DRR planning cycle). It also suggests taking advantage of the unique opportunities as a result of the increased coherence and mutual reinforcement across the post-2015 international agendas and the increasing recognition that links between public health and DRR can provide impetus and a focus for developing CS that support DRR.

    PLACARD translated materials – first set : Work Package 3 – knowledge brokerage, Deliverable 3.3
    Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. ; Schwarze, Reimund ; Michalek, Gabriela - \ 2018
    Placard - 9 p.
    Brief communication: Strengthening coherence between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction
    Mysiak, J. ; Castellari, Sergio ; Kurnik, Blaz ; Swart, R.J. ; Pringle, Patrick ; Schwarzenbach, R. ; Wolters, H. ; Jeuken, A. ; Linden, Paul van der - \ 2018
    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18 (2018)11. - ISSN 1561-8633 - p. 3137 - 3143.
    Reducing disaster risks and adapting to climate change are ever more important policy goals in Europe and worldwide. The commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and complementary multilateral frameworks, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, has galvanised pursuits for policy coherence. The report »Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe: enhancing coherence of the knowledge base, policies and practices« of the European Environment Agency identified several ways how coherence and resilience can be built through knowledge sharing, collaboration and investments.
    Identification of relevant international networks, programmes and institutions for JPI Climate research : Work Package 3 - Deliverable 3.1
    Aalbers, C.B.E.M. ; Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2018
    Wageningen : SINCERE - 60 p.
    Identification of relevant international networks, programmes and institutions for JPI Climate research
    Aalbers, C.B.E.M. ; Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2018
    SINCERE project, strategic document, non-public H2020-SC5-2016-2017/H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB, Deliverable 3.1, European Commission
    Social vulnerability to climate change in European cities – state of play in policy and Practice
    Breil, M. ; Downing, C. ; Kazmierczak, A. ; Mäkinen, K. ; Romanovska, L. ; Terämä, E. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2018
    Copenhagen : EEA - European Environment Agency (ETC/CCA Technical Paper 2018/1) - 85 p.
    Climate change impacts do not affect all citizens in the same way. They often cause worse impacts on certain vulnerable groups within cities. The aim of this technical paper is to provide the state-of-play in policy and practice for addressing social vulnerability to climate change in urban areas.
    Adaptation to climate change at local level in Europe: An overview
    Aguiar, F.C. ; Bentz, J. ; Silva, J.M.N. ; Fonseca, A.L. ; Swart, R.J. ; Santos, F.D. ; Penha-Lopes, Gil - \ 2018
    Environmental Science & Policy 86 (2018). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 38 - 63.
    Europe’s climate change vulnerability pushes for initiatives such as the European Adaptation Strategy and the associated Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. What are the triggers and barriers, for which sectors and for which risks and how is adaptation funded? This paper examines 147 Local Adaptation Strategies in Europe. Key triggers were incentives via research projects, implementation of EU policies and the increasing frequency of extreme climate events. Insufficient resources, capacity, political commitment and uncertainty were the main barriers. Prioritized sectors reflected the main local vulnerabilities - flood protection and water management, built environment and urban planning. Differing patterns of adaptation planning and adaptive capacity were identified among different regions in Europe. Large municipalities generally fund adaptation locally, whereas international and national funding appears to be more important for adaptation in less urban or densely populated territories. The database of LAS described in the present study can be expanded and used to increase the understanding of and promotion of local adaptation action in Europe and beyond.
    Strategic narratives to induce preparedness and prevention in cities : New governance tool for public action
    Coninx, I. ; Michalek, Gabriela ; Bentz, J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Schwarze, Reimund - \ 2017
    Weather- and climate-related natural hazards in Europe
    Kurnik, Blaz ; Linden, P. van der; Mysiak, J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Füssel, H.M. ; Christiansen, Trine ; Cavicchia, Leone ; Gualdi, S. ; Mercogliano, Paola ; Rianna, Guido ; Kramer, K. ; Michetti, Melania ; Salis, Michele ; Schelhaas, M. ; Leitner, M. ; Vanneuville, W. ; Macadam, Ian - \ 2017
    In: Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe / Castellari, Sergio, Kurnik, Blaz, EEA - European Environment Agency (EEA Report 15/2017) - ISBN 9789292138936 - p. 46 - 91.
    Since 2003, Europe has experienced several extreme summer heat waves. Such heat waves are projected to occur as often as every 2 years in the second half of the 21st century, under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The impacts will be
    particularly strong in southern Europe.
    Heavy precipitation events have increased in northern and north-eastern Europe since the 1960s, whereas different indices show diverging trends for south-western and southern Europe. Heavy precipitation events are projected to
    become more frequent in most parts of Europe.
    The number of very severe flood events in Europe has varied since 1980, but the economic losses have increased. It isnot currently possible to quantify the contribution due to increased heavy precipitation in parts of Europe compared with better reporting and land use changes.
    Observations of windstorm location, frequency and intensity have showed considerable variability across Europe during the 20th century. Models project an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track towards central Europe, with an increase in the number of cyclones in central Europe and a decreased number in the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas.
    For medicanes (also termed Mediterranean Sea hurricanes), a decreased frequency but increased intensity of medicanes is projected in the Mediterranean area.
    Landslides are a natural hazard that cause fatalities and significant economic losses in various parts of Europe. Projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will affect rock slope stability conditions and favour increases in the frequency of shallow landslides, especially in European mountains.
    The severity and frequency of droughts appear to have increased in parts of Europe, in particular in southern and south-eastern Europe. Droughts are projected to increase in frequency, duration, and severity in most of Europe, with the strongest increase projected for southern Europe.
    Forest fire risk depends on many factors, including climatic conditions, vegetation, forest management practices and other socio-economic factors. The burnt area in the Mediterranean region increased from 1980 to 2000; it has decreased thereafter. Projected increases in heat waves together with an expansion of the fire-prone area will increase the duration of fire seasons across Europe, in particular in southern Europe.
    Observational data between 1970 and 2015 show that alpine avalanches cause on average 100 fatalities every winter in the Alps. Increased temperatures are expected to lead to decreases in alpine snow cover and duration, and in turn
    to decreased avalanche activity below about 1 500-2 000 m elevation in spring, but increased avalanche activity above 2 000 m elevation, especially in winter.
    Hail is responsible for significant damage to crops, vehicles, buildings and other infrastructure. Despite improvements in data availability, trends and projections of hail events are still subject to large uncertainties owing to a lack of direct
    observation and inadequate microphysical schemes in numerical weather prediction and climate models.
    Extreme high coastal water levels have increased at most locations along the European coastline. This increase appears to be predominantly due to increases in mean local sea level rather than to changes in storm activity. Projected changes in the frequency and intensity of storm surges are expected to cause significant ecological damage, economic loss and other societal problems along low-lying coastal areas in northern and western Europe, unless additional adaptation measures are implemented.
    Impacts of natural hazards in Europe
    Groeve, Tom De; Kurnik, Blaz ; Mysiak, J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Semenza, Jan C. ; Kendrovski, Vladimir ; Kramer, K. ; Ivits, Eva ; Vanneuville, W. ; Carrera, Lorenzo ; Blauhut, V. ; Erhard, M. ; Christiansen, Trine - \ 2017
    In: Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe / Castellari, Sergio, Kurnik, Blaz, EEA - European Environment Agency (EEA Report 15/2017) - ISBN 9789292138936 - p. 92 - 115.
    Climate change has caused noticeable effects on human health in Europe, mainly as a result of extreme events, an increase in climate-sensitive diseases, and a deterioration in environmental and social conditions. Heat waves were the
    deadliest extreme weather event in the period 1991–2015 in Europe.
    Increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather- and climate-related events may lead to more disastrous impacts on ecosystems and their services. Management of ecosystems can help to avoid or significantly reduce these impacts.
    The total reported economic losses caused by extreme weather- and climate-related events in the EEA member countries over the period 1980-2015 amount to around EUR 433 billion (in 2015 values). A large share of the total losses (70 %) has been caused by a small number of events (3 %).
    Transformative urban adaptation to climate change
    Kazmierczak, A. ; Breil, A.M. ; Dworak, T. ; Swart, R.J. ; Mäkinen, K. - \ 2017
    EEA - European Environment Agency
    Developing climate information portals with users : Promises and pitfalls
    Swart, R.J. ; Bruin, K. de; Dhenain, S. ; Dubois, G. ; Groot, Annemarie ; Forst, E. von der - \ 2017
    Climate Services 6 (2017). - ISSN 2405-8807 - p. 12 - 22.
    The priority of climate change on political and research agendas fluctuates but got a recent boost after the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement. The amount of climate data is surging and so is the number of climate information portals.

    Portal developers usually aim at serving ‘‘users” and therefore consult them. But how useful are the resulting portals really? And for whom? How effective was the involvement of users in developing the portal?

    This paper aims to provide some answers to these questions.

    Reflections which have been carried out in this paper are based on the situation in Europe, building on experience in a number of European projects, in particular the CLIPC project (Climate Information Portal for Copernicus), a ‘‘pre-operational” research project for Copernicus.
    Financing urban adaptation tot climate change
    Swart, R.J. ; Georgi, B. ; Romanovska, L. ; Dworak, T. ; Berglund, M. ; Gossum, H. van; Water, Sandra van de; Bosch, P. ; Rovers, V. ; Eichler, L. - \ 2017
    EEA - European Environment Agency (EEA Report 2) - ISBN 9789292138455 - 36
    Despite the global signals, and European and national
    efforts to unlock climate finance, meeting the costs
    of adaptation measures for climate change is a
    major challenge for relevant authorities and private
    stakeholders. However, municipalities across Europe
    — cities, towns and smaller districts — have found
    various innovative ways to overcome the challenge of
    financing their adaptation measures. The 11 city case
    studies presented in this publication, and the lessons
    they provide, can inspire other cities and smaller
    municipalities to reproduce these measures.
    Klaar voor klimaatverandering : Opmaak van een risico- en kwetsbaarheidsanalyse in functie van klimaatadaptatie en uitwerken van adaptatiebeleid op maat van en voor de provincie Antwerpen
    Coninx, Ingrid ; Willems, Patrick ; Goosen, Hasse ; Rooij, Bertram De; Swart, Rob ; Boone, Pieter ; Uytven, Els Van; Tabari, Hossein ; Koekoek, Arjen ; Bijsterveldt, Menno Van - \ 2016
    Wageningen : Alterra Wageningen UR (Alterra-rapport 2741) - 104
    Deze studie vat de bestaande kennis over klimaatverandering, die relevant is voor de provincieAntwerpen samen. De voornaamste effecten die te verwachten zijn, zijn inzichtelijk gemaakt.Vervolgens is er een opsomming gemaakt van beleidsacties die de provincie Antwerpen kan nemenOm de effecten te matigen of zelfs te voorkomen. Deze acties zijn gericht op: -Analyse en het verwerven van meer en betere inzichten, - Integreren van klimaatdata in de huidige beleidsinstrumenten, wat vaak wordt aangeduid met‘mainstreamen van beleid’, - Realiseren van een aantal adaptatiemaatregelen, - Betrekken en activeren van andere mensen om acties te ondernemen voor elk van de acties is aangegeven op welke termijn ze genomen zouden kunnen worden. Bij veelvan deze acties wordt de korte termijn aangegeven. Dat heeft twee redenen. Ten eerste, omdat deeffecten nu al plaatsvinden. Ten tweede omdat hoe sneller men klaar is voor klimaatverandering, hoebeter men het hoofd leert bieden aan deze effecten. Vele van deze acties zijn gericht op maatregelendie ook andere maatschappelijke doelen dienen. Het zijn zogenaamde ‘no-regret’ maatregelen diemeerdere voordelen opleveren. Het kan daarom geen kwaad om zo spoedig mogelijk aan de gang tegaan met deze acties.Tot slot nog de boodschap: klimaatadaptatie gaat niet louter om het aanpakken van eenbeleidsprobleem door één specifieke beleidsdienst. Klimaatadaptatie is een integraal beleidsproces.Het kan een manier zijn om een regio te ontwikkelen, sterk te maken en om nieuwe levensstijlenmogelijk te maken. Het kan ook een manier zijn om de samenleving te versterken en het gebiedleefbaar te houden, zodat elke bevolkingsgroep zich thuis voelt. Klimaatadaptatie doet men samen, endaarom zal de provincie Antwerpen in navolging van deze eerste verkenning met andere mensen devolgende stappen zetten om de provincie klaar te maken voor klimaatverandering.
    Evolving issues brief 2016
    Coninx, I. ; Swart, R.J. ; Schwarze, Reimund ; Michalek, Gabriela - \ 2016
    Placard - 21 p.
    The Evolving issues brief aims to inform the PLACARD community in a short and easy-to-read way about our progress in bridging the gaps between the CCA and DRR communities. The issues identified are described in the gap report and are at the core of the PLACARD dialogues. The brief describes the issues and summarises how they can be bridged based on suggestions made during the PLACARD dialogues. The brief also describes new issues that may arise during future PLACARD dialogues. Additional activities to bridge CCA and DRR on these issues are proposed, and research questions are described.
    Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe 2016 : Transforming cities in a changing climate
    Georgi, B. ; Isoard, S. ; Asquith, M. ; Garzillo, C. ; Swart, R.J. ; Timmerman, J.G. - \ 2016
    Copenhagen : ETC CCA (EEA Report No 12/2016) - 45
    Climate change adaptation - urban areas - urban adaptation
    This report builds on and complements existing products and initiatives on urban adaptation in Europe. It focuses on the state of actions in the field and progress achieved since the first EEA report in 2012, and it considers this analysis in relation to current challenges: Do existing actions lead to attractive, climate-resilient cities and if not, what needs to be changed? The report aims to broaden perspectives and provide input to a review and subsequent adjustment of urban adaptation to climate change by local governments and by supporting regional, national and European institutions, researchers and other relevant stakeholders.
    The rise of demand-driven climate services
    Lourenço, Tiago Capela ; Swart, Rob ; Goosen, Hasse ; Street, Roger - \ 2016
    Nature Climate Change 6 (2016)1. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 13 - 14.
    With the concept of climate services rapidly climbing research and research-funding agendas worldwide, the time is ripe for a debate about the objectives, scope and content of such services.
    Towards a diagnostic adaptation science
    Hinkel, Jochen ; Bisaro, Alexander ; Swart, Rob - \ 2016
    Regional Environmental Change 16 (2016)1. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 1 - 5.
    Frontiers of solution-oriented adaptation research
    Bisaro, A. ; Swart, R.J. ; Hinkel, J. - \ 2016
    Regional Environmental Change 16 (2016)1. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 123 - 136.
    Adaptation is heterogeneous and relevant for a range of sectors and levels of decision-making. As adaptation moves up the policy agenda, solution-oriented adaptation research requires addressing questions that are salient to stakeholders and decision-makers at various scales and involves applying a wide range of different methods. Yet while solution-oriented adaptation research is being increasingly undertaken, there is to date a lack of synthesis of these experiences in the literature. In this paper, we aim to address this gap by synthesising findings in nine cases from the MEDIATION project (Methodology for Effective Decision-making on Impacts and AdaptaTION), an EC-funded solution-oriented adaptation research project. We do so by, first, describing methods applied for solution-oriented research in Europe and sequences of methods carried out in individual cases. Second, we assess strengths and weaknesses of individual methods in given empirical situations. Third, we analyse patterns observed in the sequences of methods and reflect on their implications for adaptation research. A strength of our approach is that detailed data on choices of research questions and methods were collected through in-depth and iterative interaction with the case study teams. We find that there is no standard recipe for adaptation; that even though social science methods are often indicated, they are often not applied; and that robust decision-making methods, while available, are often constrained because of their resource intensity. Reflecting on the implications of these findings, we argue that greater flexibility and transdisciplinarity are needed in adaptation research and that social science methods should be further supported. Finally, we find that stakeholder engagement is not a panacea and that engagement requires a more differentiated understanding of stakeholders and careful design in order to be effective.
    Forest Fires and Adaptation Options in Europe
    Khabarov, N. ; Krasovskii, A. ; Obersteiner, M. ; Swart, R.J. ; Dosio, A. ; San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. ; Durrant, T. ; Camia, A. ; Migliavacca, M. - \ 2016
    Regional Environmental Change 16 (2016)1. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 21 - 30.
    This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with observed data coming from two different sources (European Forest Fire Information System and Global Fire Emissions Database). Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under “no adaptation” scenario is about 200 % by 2090 (compared with 2000–2008). The application of prescribed burnings has the potential to keep that increase below 50 %. Improvements in fire suppression might reduce this impact even further, e.g. boosting the probability of putting out a fire within a day by 10 % would result in about a 30 % decrease in annual burned areas. By taking more adaptation options into consideration, such as using agricultural fields as fire breaks, behavioural changes, and long-term options, burned areas can be potentially reduced further than projected in our analysis.
    Steden en gemeenten adapteren
    Coninx, I. ; Och, R.A.F. van; Swart, R.J. ; Goosen, H. ; Bijsterveldt, M.A.J.C. van; Masselink, L.J.W. ; Sips, K. ; Vincke, Jan ; Bonné, Evita - \ 2015
    Brussel : Departement Leefmilieu, Natuur en Energie - 123 p.
    Cities and municipalities in Flanders will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of climate change. The
    Department of LNE intends to support them by the prevention of and adaptation to these impacts by offering
    an easily accessible toolbox with which local authorities can decrease their vulnerability. This toolbox will help
    the local authorities to ease, in an ‘automatic’ way, to develop a local adaptation plan. This report proposes the
    characteristics of such a toolbox. It is based on (i) an analysis of different steps in the adaptation decision-making
    processes, (ii) a mapping of adaptation support needs of municipalities, (iii) an inventory and evaluation of existing
    instruments for adaptation, (iv) the demonstration and testing existing instruments that meets the adaptation
    support needs of local authorities and (v) a description of the Adaptation Toolbox for Flanders, based on the
    Analysis of steps in adaptation processes. Based on an analysis of national and international adaptation processes
    six steps are distinguished that shape the decision-making process of climate change adaptation at the local level:
    fostering political commitment, climate impact and vulnerability analysis, identification of adaptation measures,
    prioritizing and choosing adaptation measures, implementing measures, and monitoring and evaluation. In practice,
    these steps will not always be taken subsequently but sometimes also in parallel. Stakeholder engagement is
    relevant for all steps.
    Adaptation support needs of local authorities. Information on adaptation support needs of local authorities was
    analysed through a number of interviews with different types of municipalities across Flanders. Needs and desires
    depend on factors such as the size of a municipality, the available staff and funds, the motivation of staff involved
    and the progress made in developing climate plans. The willingness of a wide variety of municipalities to participate
    and the interest in the issue appeared to be large, which also led to a very wide diversity of needs and wishes as to
    the characteristics of a toolbox.
    Analysis of existing methods and tools. An inventory resulted in about 89 existing methods and tools that could
    be relevant for a Flemish toolbox, from Belgium, the Netherlands, and other Western countries. The tools were
    organized and evaluated according to a number of aspects, such as their specific purposes, the accessibility, the
    required level of expertise, the type of climate effects, the ease or complexity of application, the level of scale, the
    type of output and the potential for transfer to an application in Flanders. Furthermore, benefits and pitfalls are
    identified. The 89 instruments were structured in a decision tree to ease the search for the most appropriate tool.
    Playzone. In a workshop, instruments that fit to the adaptation support needs were demonstrated and tested
    by the participants for their applicability in the Flemish context. This exercise made clear that many of the tools
    have potential, but need to be translated to the Flemish situation, and for non-Dutch tools, translated. Many of
    them also require Flemish data. It is important that detailed data and other relevant information on climate risks
    and vulnerabilities will become available for Flanders, where this is currently sometimes the cases for Antwerp
    and a limited number of other cities and regions. This should preferably be at one location and compatible with
    software systems used by Flemish municipalities. The toolbox should take the level of available knowledge and
    human resources into account as well as the need to integrate climate change adaptation with other policy areas.
    Participants confirmed the urgency of such a toolbox and also the feasibility.
    Describing the Adaptation Toolbox. Based on the inteviews, the steering group consultations, the analyses and the
    playzone activity recommendations are formulated for the Adaptation Toolbox for Flemish municipalities and cities.
    Adaptation support needs and instrument specifications are fully considered. Recommendations are made on the
    Adaptation Toolbox, including: (a) bringing together information on climate impact and vulnerability in a GIS viewer;
    (b) a climate test for new and ongoing projects; (c) a database of adaptation measures, including information
    on vulnerabilities, costs and effects; (d) a Climate Cuisine – a workshop to involve stakeholders in identifying
    adaptation measures and developing an adaptation plan; (g) financial support on synergies in local budgets and
    help to find national and European subsidies to finance adaptation measures. In addition to an online toolbox, we
    recommend the development of an Adaptation Community where a lively dialogue will take place between local
    authorities, provinces, companies, citizens, NGO’s and the Flemish authorities on adaptation practices and how to
    develop than as efficient as possible.
    National action supporting urban adaptation in EEA Member States
    Breil, M. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2015
    Copenhagen : ETC CCA (Eionet Report ETC/CCA 2015/3) - 45 p.
    Map book urban vulnerability to climate change : Factsheets
    Timmerman, J.G. ; Bacciu, Valentina ; Coninx, I. ; Fons, J. ; Gregor, M. ; Havranek, Miroslav ; Jacobs, C.M.J. ; Loehnertz, M. ; Peltonen, L. ; Sainz, M. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2015
    Copenhagen : European Environment Agency - 90 p.
    National monitoring, reporting and evaluation of climate change adaptation in Europe
    Pringle, P. ; Karali, E. ; Klostermann, J.E.M. ; Mäkinen, K. ; Prutsch, A. ; Hildén, M. ; Swart, R.J. ; Street, R. ; MCCallum, S. - \ 2015
    Copenhagen : European Environment Agency (EEA Technical Report 20/2015) - ISBN 9789292137052 - 68
    Acknowledgements : National monitoring, reporting and evaluation of climate change adaption in Europe
    Timmerman, J.G. ; Coninx, I. ; Jacobs, C.M.J. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2015
    Copenhagen : European Environment Agency (EEA)
    Communicating climate (change) uncertainties: simulation games as boundary objects
    Pelt, S.C. van; Haasnoot, M. ; Arts, B.J.M. ; Ludwig, F. ; Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. - \ 2015
    Environmental Science & Policy 45 (2015). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 41 - 52.
    science-policy interface - decision-support - projections - adaptation - politics - information - transition - management - working - systems
    Climate science is characterized by large uncertainties about the direction, extent and time frame of climate change. Communicating these uncertainties is important for decision making on robust adaptation strategies, but proves to be a challenge for scientists particularly because of the complexity of uncertainties that are part of natural variability and of human induced climate change. The aim of this paper is to assess the role of a simulation game, as intermediate, to the communication of climate change uncertainties to water managers. In three workshops with water managers, the simulation game ‘Sustainable Delta’ was played to test the influence of the game on their understanding of climate change uncertainty using ex ante and ex post surveys. In each workshop an experimental- and control group were given different assignments to measure the influence of the game. The results show that although the differences between groups were not statistically significant, a change in their understanding of uncertainties was observed. The paper concludes that the learning effect of the game is inconclusive, but that the game does fosters a broader understanding of the concept climate change uncertainty. In doing so, simulation games are a promising approach to support the communication of climate change uncertainties meaningfully and support the process of adaptation to an uncertain future.
    Socioecological inequalities in European urban areas : A first exploration of incidences, causes, consequences and assessment methods
    Aalbers, C.B.E.M. ; Vries, S. de; Swart, R.J. ; Betgen, C. ; Eupen, M. van - \ 2014
    Wageningen : WUR, Alterra - 51 p.
    Climate Change Adaptation Manual : Lessons learned from European and other industrialised countries
    Prutsch, Andrea ; Grothmann, Torsten ; MCCallum, S. ; Schauser, I. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
    London : Routledge - ISBN 9780203381267 - 378 p.
    economics - finance - business & industry - environment and sustainability - law - politics & international relations
    Due to the lack of success in climate change mitigation efforts, the importance of adaptation is becoming more and more apparent and is now one of the main imperatives of international research and action. However, research on adaptation is mostly not directly applicable to adaptation policy or practice, leaving a gap between scientific results and practical advice for decision makers and planners. This book seeks to address this problem and bridge the gap and should provide readers with practical and applicable information on climate change adaptation.Following an introduction, the book is organised into four main sections, each reflecting an essential component in the adaptation process. Climate change adaptation is an emerging subject area and has gained increased political and academic attention within the last decade. Whereas most books in the field focus on adaptation in developing countries, this volume provides an examination of predominantly European policy and offers inter-disciplinary insight into cutting edge knowledge and lessons learnt in a relatively new field of implementation.
    Copernicus climate change services and the Climate-ADAPT platform
    Linden, P. van der; Buontempo, C. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
    European Environment Agency
    National adaptation policy processes in European countries - 2014
    Biesbroek, R. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
    European Environment Agency - ISBN 9789292134846 - 136 p.
    This report draws on the results of a self-assessment survey conducted on national adaptation policy processes in Europe. In May 2013, the survey was sent out by the European Environment Agency (EEA) to authorities in countries responsible for coordinating adaptation at national level (the EEA 32 member countries, and in Croatia in July 2013 as a new EU Member State and EEA member country). Some 30 EEA member countries provided their responses on a voluntary basis. Thanks to the high response rate and the wealth of information provided by these European countries, this report presents a unique collection of information and the largest and most comprehensive overview of national adaptation policy processes in Europe, to date.
    Future directions for national adaptation policies in Europe
    Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. ; Hildén, M. ; Isoard, S. ; Prutsch, A. ; MCCallum, S. - \ 2014
    In: National adaptation policy processes in European countries - 2014 Luxembourgh : European Environment Agency (EEA Report No 4/2014) - ISBN 9789292134853 - p. 112 - 114.
    Science of adaptation to climate change and science for adaptation
    Swart, R.J. ; Biesbroek, G.R. ; Capela Lourenco, T. - \ 2014
    Frontiers in Environmental Science 2 (2014). - ISSN 2296-665X - 8 p.
    Adaptation to climate change has gained a prominent place next to mitigation on global, national, and local policy agendas. However, while an abundance of adaptation strategies, plans, and programmes have been developed, progress in turning these into action has been slow. The development of a sound knowledge basis to support adaptation globally is suggested to accelerate progress, but has lagged behind. The emphasis in both current and newly proposed programmes is very much on practice-oriented research with strong stakeholder participation. This paper supports such practice-oriented research, but argues that this is insufficient to support adaptation policy and practice in a productive manner. We argue that there is not only a need for science for adaptation, but also a science of adaptation. The paper argues that participatory, practice-oriented research is indeed essential, but has to be complemented by and connected to more fundamental inquiry and concept development, which takes into account knowledge that has been developed in disciplinary sciences and on issues other than climate change adaptation. At the same time, the level and method of participation in science for adaptation should be determined on the basis of the specific project context and goals. More emphasis on science of adaptation can lead to improved understanding of the conditions for successful science for adaptation.
    Climate change adaptation planning in agriculture: processes, experiences and lessons learned from early adapters
    Bizikova, L. ; Crawford, E. ; Nijnik, M. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
    Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 19 (2014)4. - ISSN 1381-2386 - p. 411 - 430.
    sustainable adaptation - policy responses - level - vulnerability - states
    This paper explores the lessons learned by leaders in agricultural adaptation planning in order to assist other jurisdictions to develop adaptation strategies. It seeks to identify effective institutional, participatory and collaborative processes involved in designing agricultural adaptation strategies at the national and sub-national levels in Germany, Finland, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada. Its methodology is based on review of agricultural adaptation policy documents, research initiatives, stakeholder engagement processes, and cross-sectoral collaborations as well as interviews with key informants such as leaders and actors in adaptation planning. The gathered data show that early adapters have an improved regional and national understanding of climatic impacts, and of the risks to agriculture before the initiation of the planning process. The results indicate that the interplay between bottom-up and top-down initiatives has been crucial in the development of adaptation strategies. The former has provided rich and robust participation in designing, implementing and monitoring adaptations, while the latter was important for prioritizing and legitimizing the development of strategy. It also provided access to high-level decision makers and funding. The results of the study suggest that fostering cross-sectoral collaborations—especially by focusing on broader questions such as the role of agriculture in society—has become an important part of adaptation planning. Finally, our results also stress that adaptation planning in agriculture could be enhanced by skills development and mutual learning across stakeholder groups, research and policy-makers, and through the ongoing interactive development of institutional capabilities.
    Learning through collaboration – Knowledge Transfer and Sharing in Climate Change Adaptation. Research between European and developing countries. A CIRCLE-2 research policy brief
    Swart, R.J. ; Alberth, J. ; Kuna, B. ; Lillieskold, M. ; Hanzlickova, M. ; Horstmann, B. - \ 2014
    Lisbon/Portugal : Foundation of the Faculty of Sciences - 20
    klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - kennisoverdracht - milieubeleid - ontwikkelingslanden - landen van de europese unie - climatic change - climate adaptation - knowledge transfer - environmental policy - developing countries - european union countries
    From 2004-2009, and from 2009-2014, partners of CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research & Response Coordination for a Larger Europe) have collaborated to fund research and share knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation and the promotion of long-term cooperation among national and regional climate change programmes in Europe.
    Productive Science-practice Interactions in Climate Change Adaptation : Lessons from practice. A CIRCLE-2 research policy brief
    Groot, A.M.E. ; Hollaender, K. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2014
    Lisbon/Portugal : Foundation of the Faculty of Sciences - 32
    klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - kennisoverdracht - milieubeleid - climatic change - climate adaptation - knowledge transfer - environmental policy
    In the early stage of a project, it is important to account for a diversity of users. Policy makers and practitioners need to be distinguished from politicians, business managers and other actual decision-makers as they might have different information needs.
    Science-practice interactions for effective climate change adaptation: Identifying new approaches for collaboration between Europe and low-income countries
    Swart, Rob - \ 2014
    Climate-proofing spatial planning and water management projects: an analysis of 100 local and regional projects in the Netherlands
    Sedee, A.G.J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Pater, F. de; Goosen, H. ; Pijnappels, M.H.J. ; Vellinga, P. - \ 2014
    Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning 16 (2014)1. - ISSN 1523-908X - p. 55 - 74.
    klimaatverandering - regionale planning - waterbeheer - onderzoeksprojecten - inventarisaties - nederland - climatic change - regional planning - water management - research projects - inventories - netherlands - adaptation - strategies
    Since the turn of the century, an increasing number of local and regional authorities in Europe started making their city or region resilient to climate change, or ‘climate-proof’. Publications about the actual experiences with implementing these adaptation policies are as yet anecdotal, determined by the local context and the methods applied. In order to identify common processes and characteristics, moving beyond individual cases, this paper systematically assesses 100 spatial planning and water management projects in the Netherlands that included climate resilience as one of their objectives. We derive eight defining characteristics that not only increase climate resilience, but are also found to lead to a greater ‘quality’ of the project area. We structure these properties into a stylized sequence: (i) a longer timeframe, (ii) an integrative and sustainable approach, (iii) consideration of new spatial functions, (iv) a broader spatial context, (v) participation of multiple stakeholders, (vi) new opportunities for entrepreneurs, (vii) increased cost-effectiveness, and (viii) enhanced quality of the project area. The assessment also suggests four process-related conditions that contribute to the success of a project: early incorporation of adaptation; multi-actor collaboration and co-creation of knowledge; integrated, multifunctional and forward-looking solutions; and early political commitment.
    Climate adaptation services for the Netherlands: An operational approach to support spatial adaptation planning
    Goosen, H. ; Groot, M.A.M. de; Masselink, L. ; Koekoek, A. ; Swart, R.J. ; Bessembinder, J. ; Witte, J.M.P. ; Stuyt, L.C.M. ; Blom-Zandstra, G. ; Immerzeel, W. - \ 2014
    Regional Environmental Change 14 (2014)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 1035 - 1048.
    landgebruik - klimaatverandering - landgebruiksplanning - stakeholders - kennisoverdracht - land use - climatic change - land use planning - stakeholders - knowledge transfer - decision-support - design - visualization - thinking - tools - maps - gap
    There is a growing availability of climate change information, offered to scientists and policy makers through climate services. However, climate services are not well taken up by the policy-making and planning community. Climate services focus on primary impacts of climate change, e.g., the disclosure of precipitation and temperature data, and this seems insufficient in meeting their needs. In this paper, we argue that, in order to reach the spatial planning community, climate services should take on a wider perspective by translating climate data to policy-relevant indicators and by offering support in the design of adaptation strategies. We argue there should be more focus on translating consequences of climate change to land-use claims and subsequently discuss the validity, consequences and implications of these claims with stakeholders, so they can play a role in spatial planning processes where much of the climate adaptation takes place. The term Climate Adaptation Services is introduced as being a stepwise approach supporting the assessment of vulnerability in a wider perspective and include the design and appraisal of adaptation strategies in a multi-stakeholder setting. We developed the Climate Adaptation Atlas and the Climate Ateliers as tools within the Climate Adaptation Services approach to support decision-making and planning processes. In this paper, we describe the different steps of our approach and report how some of the challenges were addressed
    EEA Grants Conference: presentation “Too Much, Too Little: The Role of Water in Adaptation to Climate Change”, 7-9 October 2013, Lisbon, Portugal
    Swart, Rob - \ 2013
    Mediation and the Adaptation Challenge: Identifying appropriate methods and tools
    Swart, R.J. ; Singh, T. - \ 2013
    Wageningen : Alterra
    klimaatadaptatie - beleidsprocessen - beleidsondersteuning - climate adaptation - policy processes - policy support
    The MEDIATION project guides researchers, policy advisors and experts to suitable climate change adaptation methods and tools for a wide range of questions and from various disciplines and perspectives. The project involves 11 partners and 11 case studies. Summaries of five of these case studies can be found in the present publication.
    Beyond vulnerability assessment
    Swart, R.J. ; Fuss, S. ; Obersteiner, M. ; Ruti, P. ; Teichmann, C. ; Vautard, R. - \ 2013
    Nature Climate Change 3 (2013). - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 942 - 943.
    Turning points in climate change adaptation
    Werners, S.E. ; Swart, R.J. ; Slobbe, E.J.J. van; Bölscher, T. ; Pfenninger, S. ; Trombi, G. ; Moriondo, M. - \ 2013
    Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change
    Werners, S.E. ; Pfenninger, S. ; Slobbe, E.J.J. van; Haasnoot, M. ; kwakkel, J.H. ; Swart, R.J. - \ 2013
    Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 5 (2013)3-4. - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 334 - 340.
    klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - onzekerheidsanalyse - climatic change - climate adaptation - uncertainty analysis - social-ecological systems - decision-making - policy-makers - adaptation - science - uncertainty - information - world - transitions - 4-degrees-c
    We review four bodies of literature that suggest that thresholds, tipping and turning points are important focal points for sustainability under climate change that can help bridge the science–policy interface. For decision-makers a critical threshold is reached, the moment that climate change renders policy untenable and alternative strategies must be considered.
    We review four bodies of literature that suggest that thresholds, tipping and turning points are important focal points for sustainability under climate change that can help bridge the science-policy interface. For decision-makers a critical threshold is reached, the moment that climate change renders policy untenable and alternative strategies must be considered. A focus on thresholds and tipping points allows for a salient and credible dialogue between decision-makers and scientists about the amount of acceptable change, when unacceptable conditions could occur, how likely these conditions are and what adaptation pathways to consider. Uncertainty can be communicated as the time range in which a critical threshold is likely to be exceeded.
    On the contribution of Knowledge for Climate to the development of JPI Climate in 2012
    Swart, R.J. ; Bessembinder, J. ; Driessen, P. - \ 2012
    Utrecht : National Research Programme Knowledge for Climate (Knowledge for Climate 91/2013) - 88
    klimaatverandering - kennisoverdracht - europa - climatic change - knowledge transfer - europe
    From 2008 to 2012, Knowledge for Climate contributed to the development of the Joint Programming Initiative “Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe” (JPI Climate). In 2010, a proposal was developed and accepted, followed in 2011 by the development and adoption of a governance structure and a stra-tegic research agenda. The Initiative is now supported by 13 member and 2 ob-server countries as well as the European Commission and 4 other observer in-stitutions. In 2012, JPI Climate was formally launched in Brussels, financial sup-port was obtained for the Commission in the form of a Coordination and Sup-port Action (CSA), new steps were taken towards the alignment of climate re-search programmes in the participating countries, and first steps were taken towards the development of a first joint call, planned to be launched in 2013. This report summarizes the Dutch involvement in the programme in 2012, in-cluding the organization of meetings of the Governing and Transdisciplinary Advisory Boards, workshops and chairmanship of Working Group 4 on Decision-Support Methods and Tools. Because of strongly decreased priority of climate research in The Netherlands, no successful connection was yet made with NWO top sector research policy or other Dutch funding sources. The report discusses the future plans and collaborations.
    A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
    Vuuren, D.P. van; Riahi, K. ; Moss, R. ; Edmonds, J. ; Thomson, A. ; Nakicenovic, N. ; Kram, T. ; Berkhout, F. ; Swart, R.J. ; Janetos, A. ; Rose, S.K. ; Arnell, N. - \ 2012
    Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 22 (2012)1. - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 21 - 35.
    expert judgments - impact assessment - vulnerability - costs - stabilization - adaptation - strategies
    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.
    Urban Vulnerability Indicators. A joint report of ETC-CCA and ETC-SIA
    Swart, R.J. ; Fons, J. ; Geertsema, W. ; Hove, L.W.A. van; Jacobs, C.M.J. - \ 2012
    Bologna : ETC CCA (Technical Report 01/2012) - 178 p.
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