Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
    Leclère, David ; Obersteiner, Michael ; Barrett, Mike ; Butchart, Stuart H.M. ; Chaudhary, Abhishek ; Palma, Adriana De; DeClerck, Fabrice A.J. ; Marco, Moreno Di; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Dürauer, Martina ; Freeman, Robin ; Harfoot, Michael ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Hellweg, Stefanie ; Hilbers, Jelle P. ; Hill, Samantha L.L. ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Jennings, Nancy ; Krisztin, Tamás ; Mace, Georgina M. ; Ohashi, Haruka ; Popp, Alexander ; Purvis, Andy ; Schipper, Aafke M. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo ; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Visconti, Piero ; Alkemade, Rob ; Almond, Rosamunde ; Bunting, Gill ; Burgess, Neil D. ; Cornell, Sarah E. ; Fulvio, Fulvio Di; Ferrier, Simon ; Fritz, Steffen ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Grooten, Monique ; Harwood, Thomas ; Havlík, Petr ; Herrero, Mario ; Hoskins, Andrew J. ; Jung, Martin ; Kram, Tom ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Matsui, Tetsuya ; Meyer, Carsten ; Nel, Deon ; Newbold, Tim ; Schmidt-Traub, Guido ; Stehfest, Elke ; Strassburg, Bernardo B.N. ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Ware, Chris ; Watson, James E.M. ; Wu, Wenchao ; Young, Lucy - \ 2020
    Nature 585 (2020). - ISSN 0028-0836 - p. 551 - 556.

    Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

    The percentage of total agricultural area under maize, rice, wheat, vegetables, pulses and fruit production, by country, subject to water scarcity in 2050 as estimated from a multi-model ensemble
    Fitton, N. ; Alexander, P. ; Arnell, N. ; Bajzelj, B. ; Calvin, K. ; Doelman, J. ; Gerber, J.S. ; Havlik, P. ; Hasegawa, T. ; Herrero, M. ; Krisztin, T. ; Meijl, H. van; Powell, T. ; Sands, R. ; Stehfest, E. ; West, P.C. ; Smith, P. - \ 2020
    University of Aberdeen
    agriculture production - commodity production - future land availability - global analysis - water scarcity
    Projections of global changes in water scarcity with the current extent of maize, rice, wheat, vegetables, pulses and fruit production commodities were combined to identify the potential country level vulnerabilities of cropland land to water scarcity in 2050. The data relate to an analysis of the impact changes in water availability will have on maize, rice, wheat, vegetables, pulses and fruit production commodities availability in 2050.
    Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?
    Zeist, Willem-Jan van; Stehfest, Elke ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Valin, Hugo ; Calvin, Katherine ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Kyle, Page ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel ; Meijl, Hans van; Popp, Alexander ; Sulser, Timothy B. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Verhagen, Willem ; Wiebe, Keith - \ 2020
    Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 64 (2020). - ISSN 0959-3780
    Attainable yield - Crop yield projections - Integrated assessment - Land use - Potential yield - Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

    Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and not considering future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. This is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. On a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

    Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation
    Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Havlík, Petr ; Valin, Hugo ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Kyle, Page ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Müller, Christoph ; Ochi, Yuki ; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio ; Stehfest, Elke ; Sulser, Timothy B. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Takakura, Junya ; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Wiebe, Keith ; Witzke, Peter - \ 2020
    Nature Climate Change 10 (2020)5. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 420 - 421.
    Snakes and ladders : World development pathways’ synergies and trade-offs through the lens of the Sustainable Development Goals
    Philippidis, George ; Shutes, Lindsay ; M'Barek, Robert ; Ronzon, Tévécia ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van - \ 2020
    Journal of Cleaner Production 267 (2020). - ISSN 0959-6526
    Bioeconomy - CGE modelling - Global foresight study - SDGs

    This paper takes three global visions of world development to 2050 and quantifies their implications for sustainable progress employing the metrics of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDG outcomes are structured through the interconnectivities of the three ‘wedding cake’ layers of ‘economy’, ‘society’ and ‘biosphere’, as posited by the Stockholm Resilience Centre. The key policy contribution is to quantify the resulting SDG synergies and trade-offs, whilst also decomposing and calculating the part-worth of the market drivers which contribute to these outcomes. The paper employs a global economic simulation model that combines rational market behaviour with environmental constraints (MAGNET) and is further extended with an SDG metrics module. A ‘non-sustainable’ world reveals trade-offs between economy and biosphere SDGs, with population growth of particular concern to a safe planetary operating space in the world's poorest regions. Sustainable visions could reduce natural resource pressures and emissions and meet energy requirements at potentially limited economic cost. Notwithstanding, these futures do not address income inequalities and potentially increase food security concerns for the most vulnerable members of society. Consequently, developed region led international cooperation and in-kind income transfers to developing countries, constitutes a necessary prerequisite to help remedy the SDG trade-offs exhibited within the more sustainable global pathways.

    Modelling alternative futures of global food security: Insights from FOODSECURE
    Meijl, Hans van; Shutes, Lindsay ; Valin, Hugo ; Stehfest, Elke ; Dijk, Michiel van; Kuiper, Marijke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Havlik, Petr - \ 2020
    Global Food Security 25 (2020). - ISSN 2211-9124
    Environment - Food security - Integrated assessment - Long run - Scenario analysis

    Global economic models have been increasingly used to project food and agricultural developments for long term-time horizons, but food security aspects have often been limited to food availability projections. In this paper, we propose a broader framework to explore the future of food and nutrition security with a focus on food availability, food access, and a reasonable proxy for food utilisation. This framework is applied to a new set of stakeholder-designed scenarios of alternative future worlds that were developed for the FOODSECURE project and are structured around the two dimensions of inequality and sustainability. The framework is tested with two global models, MAGNET-IMAGE and GLOBIOM, and illustrated through an assessment of the possible trade-offs between food and nutrition security and sustainability in each of the worlds. Our results indicate that more equal worlds improve food security over a wider range of food security indicators and neglecting the sustainability dimension might revert food security gains over time. This paper concludes that there is a need for model-based scenario analysis to assess the complex and multi-dimensional characteristics of global food security.

    Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs
    Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Hof, Andries F. ; Braakhekke, Maarten C. ; Gernaat, David E.H.J. ; Berg, Maarten van den; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Meijl, Hans van; Lucas, Paul L. - \ 2020
    Global Change Biology 26 (2020)3. - ISSN 1354-1013 - p. 1576 - 1591.
    afforestation - climate change mitigation - food security - integrated assessment - land-based mitigation - negative emissions

    Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2/year at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.

    MAGNET - a team-based modular CGE approach for coherent cross-cutting policy assessments
    Kuiper, M.H. ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Tabeau, A.A. - \ 2019
    In: EU Conference on modelling for policy support In: EU Conference on modelling for policy support. - EU Science Hub - p. 103 - 105.
    Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target
    Frank, Stefan ; Havlík, Petr ; Stehfest, Elke ; Meijl, Hans van; Witzke, Peter ; Pérez-Domínguez, Ignacio ; Dijk, Michiel van; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo - \ 2019
    Nature Climate Change 9 (2019)1. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 66 - 72.

    Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.

    The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
    Fitton, N. ; Alexander, P. ; Arnell, N. ; Bajzelj, B. ; Calvin, K. ; Doelman, J. ; Gerber, J.S. ; Havlik, P. ; Hasegawa, T. ; Herrero, M. ; Krisztin, T. ; Meijl, H. van; Powell, T. ; Sands, R. ; Stehfest, E. ; West, P.C. ; Smith, P. - \ 2019
    Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 58 (2019). - ISSN 0959-3780
    Food security - Land use - Shared socio-economic pathways - Water availability

    Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

    A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation
    Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Krey, Volker ; Riahi, Keywan ; Bertram, Christoph ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Bosetti, Valentina ; Callen, Jessica ; Després, Jacques ; Doelman, Jonathan ; Drouet, Laurent ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Frank, Stefan ; Fricko, Oliver ; Havlik, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Meijl, Hans van; Ochi, Yuki ; Popp, Alexander ; Schmitz, Andreas ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Vuuren, Detlef van - \ 2019
    Nature Sustainability 2 (2019)5. - ISSN 2398-9629 - p. 386 - 396.

    Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.

    Key determinants of global land-use projections
    Stehfest, Elke ; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Valin, Hugo ; Havlik, Petr ; Popp, Alexander ; Kyle, Page ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Calvin, Katherine ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Meijl, Hans van; Wiebe, Keith - \ 2019
    Nature Communications 10 (2019). - ISSN 2041-1723 - 10 p.

    Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

    Making the Paris agreement climate targets consistent with food security objectives
    Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Stehfest, Elke ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van - \ 2019
    Global Food Security 23 (2019). - ISSN 2211-9124 - p. 93 - 103.
    Agricultural intensification - Climate change - Diet change - Food security - Land-based mitigation

    Climate change mitigation is crucial to limit detrimental impacts of climate change on food production. However, cost-optimal mitigation pathways consistent with the Paris agreement project large-scale land-based mitigation for bio-energy and afforestation to achieve stringent climate targets. Land demand from land-based mitigation leads to competition with food production, raising concerns that climate policy (SDG13 – climate action) conflicts with food security objectives (SDG2 – zero hunger). In this study we use the computable general equilibrium model MAGNET and the IMAGE integrated assessment model to quantify the food security effects of large-scale land-based mitigation. Subsequently, we implement two measures to prevent reduced food security: increased agricultural intensification and reduced meat consumption. We show that large-scale land-based mitigation (∼600 Mha in 2050) leads to increased food prices (11%), reduced food availability (230 kcal/cap/day) and substantially more people at risk of hunger (230 million) compared to the baseline scenario in 2050, most notably in developing regions. Land-based mitigation also leads to yield increases (9%) and intensified ruminant production (11%). Additional crop yield improvement (9%) and intensification in ruminant production (3%) could prevent the negative effect of mitigation on food security. Introducing a reduction in meat consumption in high- and middle-income regions reduces required crop yield improvement (7%) and ruminant intensification (2%). Our study highlights the importance of transparency about food security effects in climate change mitigation scenarios. In addition, it provides an example of explicitly including measures to limit negative trade-offs in mitigation scenarios. In this way, we show how the Paris agreement can be made consistent with food security objectives and how multiple Sustainable Development Goals can be achieved.

    Levelling the playing field for EU biomass usage
    Philippidis, George ; Bartelings, Heleen ; Helming, John ; M’barek, Robert ; Smeets, Edward ; Meijl, Hans van - \ 2019
    Economic Systems Research 31 (2019)2. - ISSN 0953-5314 - p. 158 - 177.
    Bioeconomy - CGE - foresight study - MAGNET

    The threats of climate change, food security, resource depletion and energy security are driving society towards a sustainable low-carbon future. Within this paradigm, biomass plays an invaluable role in meeting the food, feed, energy and material needs of future generations. Current EU thinking advocates biomass for high-value materials, which is not aligned with EU public policy support for ‘lower value’ bioenergy applications. ‘High-technology’ and ‘no bioenergy mandate’ pathways explore market conditions that generate a more equitable distribution between competing biomass conversion technologies and competing biomass and fossil technologies. In achieving greater equity, these pathways ease biomass market tensions; enhance EU food security; improve EU biobased trade balances; accelerate biomaterial sectors’ output performance and favour macroeconomic growth. Moreover, an additional 80% increase in the oil price signals a tipping point in favour of first generation biofuels, whilst simultaneously boosting output in advanced material conversion technologies even more than the high-technology pathway.

    Hattum, T. van; Sass-Klaassen, U.G.W. ; Meijl, J.C.M. van; Marcelis, L.F.M. ; Hilhorst, H.W.M. ; Klein Lankhorst, R.M. - \ 2018
    2018 : Wageningen University and Research
    The Good, the Bad and the Uncertain : Bioenergy Use in the European Union
    Philippidis, George ; Bartelings, Heleen ; Helming, John ; M'barek, Robert ; Smeets, Edward ; Meijl, Hans van - \ 2018
    Energies 11 (2018)10. - ISSN 1996-1073
    Advanced technologies - Agricultural production - Bio-chemicals - Bio-energy - Biomass - Economic modelling - Land use - MAGNET model - Trade

    As the EU is moving towards a low carbon economy and seeks to further develop its renewable energy policy, this paper quantitatively investigates the impact of plausible energy market reforms from the perspective of bio-renewables. Employing a state-of-the-art biobased variant of a computable general equilibrium model, this study assesses the perceived medium-term benefits, risks and trade-offs which arise from an advanced biofuels plan, two exploratory scenarios of a more 'sustainable' conventional biofuels plan and a 'no-mandate' scenario. Consistent with more recent studies, none of the scenarios considered present significant challenges to EU food-security or agricultural land usage. An illustrative advanced biofuels plan simulation requires non-trivial public support to implement whilst a degree of competition for biomass with (high-value) advanced biomass material industries is observed. On the other hand, it significantly alleviates land use pressures, whilst lignocellulose biomass prices are not expected to increase to unsustainable levels. Clearly, these observations are subject to assumptions on technological change, sustainable biomass limits, expected trends in fossil fuel prices and EU access to third-country trade. With these same caveats in mind, the switch to increased bioethanol production does not result in significant market tensions in biomass markets.

    Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy
    Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Havlík, Petr ; Valin, Hugo ; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Kyle, Page ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Ochi, Yuki ; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio ; Stehfest, Elke ; Sulser, Timothy B. ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Takahashi, Kiyoshi ; Takakura, J. ; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Wiebe, Keith ; Witzke, Peter - \ 2018
    Nature Climate Change 8 (2018)8. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 699 - 703.

    Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions1–3. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities4–6. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.

    Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
    Meijl, Hans van; Havlik, Petr ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Stehfest, Elke ; Witzke, Peter ; Domínguez, Ignacio P. ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Dijk, Michiel van; Doelman, Jonathan ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Koopman, Jason F.L. ; Müller, Christoph ; Popp, Alexander ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Valin, Hugo ; Zeist, Willem J. van - \ 2018
    Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018)6. - ISSN 1748-9318
    adaptation - agriculture - climate change - economic models - mitigation - shared socioeconomic pathways

    Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

    Exploring the impact of alternative population projections on prices, growth and poverty developments
    Kuiper, Marijke ; Shutes, Lindsay ; Verma, Monika ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Meijl, Hans van - \ 2018
    Rome : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - ISBN 9789251300961 - 51
    On the macro-economic impact of bioenergy and biochemicals – Introducing advanced bioeconomy sectors into an economic modelling framework with a case study for the Netherlands
    Meijl, H. van; Tsiropoulos, I. ; Bartelings, H. ; Hoefnagels, R. ; Smeets, E. ; Tabeau, A. ; Faaij, A. - \ 2018
    Biomass and Bioenergy 108 (2018). - ISSN 0961-9534 - p. 381 - 397.
    Biochemicals - Bioeconomy - Bioenergy - Computable general equilibrium - Macro-economic impact
    Advanced uses of biomass for bioenergy and biochemicals are being gradually introduced and are expected to grow considerably in regional economies, thus raising questions on their mid-term macro-economic impacts. To assess these impacts, we use a computable general equilibrium model and a regional energy systems model side-by-side. The former is extended with new sectors of lignocellulosic biofuels, bioelectricity, biochemicals, lignocellulosic biomass supply and tradeable pellets. Next to 1st generation biofuels and other renewable energy supply, the economic impacts of bioeconomy are assessed for technology development and trade openness scenarios. We demonstrate the macro-economic model by assessing developments of the Dutch bioeconomy in 2030. Under rapid technical growth and trade openness, the models consistently show increased biomass consumption and supply of bioenergy and biochemicals from lignocellulose through large-scale deployment of advanced biomass conversion technologies. Traditional fossil-based sectors are replaced by biomass, which brings additional macro-economic benefits on gross domestic product (0.8 bn€ a−1) and value added (0.7 bn€ a−1). Furthermore, it reduces projected decline in trade balance (0.7 bn€ a−1) and employment (2.5–4.5%) compared to low technology development. Extending the temporal scope to beyond 2030 may demonstrate additional macro-economic benefits of bioeconomy. This requires assessing the influence of improvements in the agricultural sector that may lower biomass prices, learning and other developments of promising biomass conversion technologies in the longer term. Uncertain fossil fuel and CO2 price developments necessitate additional sensitivity analysis.
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