Prediction of plant species occurrence as affected by nitrogen deposition and climate change on a European scale
Wamelink, G.W.W. ; Mol-Dijkstra, J.P. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Voogd, J.C. ; Bonten, L.T.C. ; Posch, M. ; Hennekens, S.M. ; Vries, W. de - \ 2020
Environmental Pollution 266 (2020). - ISSN 0269-7491
Biodiversity - Climate change - EUNIS - Nitrogen deposition - Precipitation - Soil
Plant species occurrence in Europe is affected by changes in nitrogen deposition and climate. Insight into potential future effects of those changes can be derived by a model approach based on field-based empirical evidence on a continental scale. In this paper, we present a newly developed empirical model PROPS, predicting the occurrence probabilities of plant species in response to a combination of climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and soil properties. Parameters included were temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, soil pH and soil C/N ratio. The PROPS model was fitted to plant species occurrence data of about 800,000 European relevés with estimated values for pH and soil C/N ratio and interpolated climate and modelled N deposition data obtained from the Ensemble meteo data set and EMEP model results, respectively. The model was validated on an independent data set. The test of ten species against field data gave an average Pearson's r-value of 0.79. PROPS was applied to a grassland and a heathland site to evaluate the effect of scenarios for nitrogen deposition and climate change on the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), being the average of the relative probabilities, compared to the maximum probability, of all target species in a habitat. Results for the period 1930–2050 showed that an initial increase and later decrease in nitrogen deposition led to a pronounced decrease in HSI, and with dropping nitrogen deposition to an increase of the HSI. The effect of climate change appeared to be limited, resulting in a slight increase in HSI.
Threshold effects of air pollution and climate change on understory plant communities at forested sites in the eastern United States
McDonnell, T.C. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Wamelink, G.W.W. ; Goedhart, P.W. ; Posch, M. ; Sullivan, T.J. ; Clark, C.M. - \ 2020
Environmental Pollution 262 (2020). - ISSN 0269-7491
Biodiversity - Climate change - Critical load - Forest understory - Nitrogen
Forest understory plant communities in the eastern United States are often diverse and are potentially sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen caused by air pollution. In recent years, empirical and processed-based mathematical models have been developed to investigate such changes in plant communities. In the study reported here, a robust set of understory vegetation response functions (expressed as version 2 of the Probability of Occurrence of Plant Species model for the United States [US-PROPS v2]) was developed based on observations of forest understory and grassland plant species presence/absence and associated abiotic characteristics derived from spatial datasets. Improvements to the US-PROPS model, relative to version 1, were mostly focused on inclusion of additional input data, development of custom species-level input datasets, and implementation of methods to address uncertainty. We investigated the application of US-PROPS v2 to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and climate change on forest ecosystems at three forested sites located in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee in the eastern United States. Species-level N and S critical loads (CLs) were determined under ambient deposition at all three modeled sites. The lowest species-level CLs of N deposition at each site were between 2 and 11 kg N/ha/yr. Similarly, the lowest CLs of S deposition, based on the predicted soil pH response, were less than 2 kg S/ha/yr among the three sites. Critical load exceedance was found at all three model sites. The New Hampshire site included the largest percentage of species in exceedance. Simulated warming air temperature typically resulted in lower maximum occurrence probability, which contributed to lower CLs of N and S deposition. The US-PROPS v2 model, together with the PROPS-CLF model to derive CL functions, can be used to develop site-specific CLs for understory plants within broad regions of the United States. This study demonstrates that species-level CLs of N and S deposition are spatially variable according to the climate, light availability, and soil characteristics at a given location. Although the species niche models generally performed well in predicting occurrence probability, there remains uncertainty with respect to the accuracy of reported CLs. As such, the specific CLs reported here should be considered as preliminary estimates. Critical loads of atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur deposition were determined for maintaining understory vegetation diversity. Critical load exceedance was found at all model application sites.
Nitrogen deposition is the most important environmental driver of growth of pure, even-aged and managed European forests
Etzold, Sophia ; Ferretti, Marco ; Reinds, Gert Jan ; Solberg, Svein ; Gessler, Arthur ; Waldner, Peter ; Schaub, Marcus ; Simpson, David ; Benham, Sue ; Hansen, Karin ; Ingerslev, Morten ; Jonard, Mathieu ; Karlsson, Per Erik ; Lindroos, Antti Jussi ; Marchetto, Aldo ; Manninger, Miklos ; Meesenburg, Henning ; Merilä, Päivi ; Nöjd, Pekka ; Rautio, Pasi ; Sanders, Tanja G.M. ; Seidling, Walter ; Skudnik, Mitja ; Thimonier, Anne ; Verstraeten, Arne ; Vesterdal, Lars ; Vejpustkova, Monika ; Vries, Wim de - \ 2020
Forest Ecology and Management 458 (2020). - ISSN 0378-1127
Air pollution - Climate change - Forest management - ICP Forests - Observational study - Ozone - Statistical modelling
Changing environmental conditions may substantially interact with site quality and forest stand characteristics, and impact forest growth and carbon sequestration. Understanding the impact of the various drivers of forest growth is therefore critical to predict how forest ecosystems can respond to climate change. We conducted a continental-scale analysis of recent (1995–2010) forest volume increment data (ΔVol, m3 ha−1 yr−1), obtained from ca. 100,000 coniferous and broadleaved trees in 442 even-aged, single-species stands across 23 European countries. We used multivariate statistical approaches, such as mixed effects models and structural equation modelling to investigate how European forest growth respond to changes in 11 predictors, including stand characteristics, climate conditions, air and site quality, as well as their interactions. We found that, despite the large environmental gradients encompassed by the forests examined, stand density and age were key drivers of forest growth. We further detected a positive, in some cases non-linear effect of N deposition, most pronounced for beech forests, with a tipping point at ca. 30 kg N ha−1 yr−1. With the exception of a consistent temperature signal on Norway spruce, climate-related predictors and ground-level ozone showed much less generalized relationships with ΔVol. Our results show that, together with the driving forces exerted by stand density and age, N deposition is at least as important as climate to modulate forest growth at continental scale in Europe, with a potential negative effect at sites with high N deposition.
Oenema, O. ; Vries, W. de; Dobben, H.F. van; Kros, J. ; Velthof, G.L. ; Reinds, G.J. - \ 2019
Wageningen : Wageningen Environmental Research - 17 p.
Currently legislated decreases in nitrogen deposition will yield only limited plant species recovery in European forests
Dirnböck, Thomas ; Pröll, Gisela ; Austnes, Kari ; Beloica, Jelena ; Beudert, Burkhard ; Canullo, Roberto ; Marco, Alessandra De; Fornasier, Maria Francesca ; Futter, Martyn ; Goergen, Klaus ; Grandin, Ulf ; Holmberg, Maria ; Lindroos, Antti Jussi ; Mirtl, Michael ; Neirynck, Johan ; Pecka, Tomasz ; Nieminen, Tiina Maileena ; Nordbakken, Jørn Frode ; Posch, Maximilian ; Reinds, Gert Jan ; Rowe, Edwin C. ; Salemaa, Maija ; Scheuschner, Thomas ; Starlinger, Franz ; Uziȩbło, Aldona Katarzyna ; Valinia, Salar ; Weldon, James ; Wamelink, Wieger G.W. ; Forsius, Martin - \ 2018
Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018)12. - ISSN 1748-9318
Atmospheric nitrogen (N) pollution is considered responsible for a substantial decline in plant species richness and for altered community structures in terrestrial habitats worldwide. Nitrogen affects habitats through direct toxicity, soil acidification, and in particular by favoring fast-growing species. Pressure from N pollution is decreasing in some areas. In Europe (EU28), overall emissions of NO x declined by more than 50% while NH 3 declined by less than 30% between the years 1990 and 2015, and further decreases may be achieved. The timescale over which these improvements will affect ecosystems is uncertain. Here we use 23 European forest research sites with high quality long-term data on deposition, climate, soil recovery, and understory vegetation to assess benefits of currently legislated N deposition reductions in forest understory vegetation. A dynamic soil model coupled to a statistical plant species niche model was applied with site-based climate and deposition. We use indicators of N deposition and climate warming effects such as the change in the occurrence of oligophilic, acidophilic, and cold-tolerant plant species to compare the present with projections for 2030 and 2050. The decrease in N deposition under current legislation emission (CLE) reduction targets until 2030 is not expected to result in a release from eutrophication. Albeit the model predictions show considerable uncertainty when compared with observations, they indicate that oligophilic forest understory plant species will further decrease. This result is partially due to confounding processes related to climate effects and to major decreases in sulphur deposition and consequent recovery from soil acidification, but shows that decreases in N deposition under CLE will most likely be insufficient to allow recovery from eutrophication.
Feasibility of coupled empirical and dynamic modeling to assess climate change and air pollution impacts on temperate forest vegetation of the eastern United States
McDonnell, T.C. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Sullivan, T.J. ; Clark, C.M. ; Bonten, L.T.C. ; Mol-Dijkstra, J.P. ; Wamelink, G.W.W. ; Dovciak, M. - \ 2018
Environmental Pollution 234 (2018). - ISSN 0269-7491 - p. 902 - 914.
Acidification - Biodiversity - Climate change - Forest understory - Nitrogen
Changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition caused pronounced changes in soil conditions and habitat suitability for many plant species over the latter half of the previous century. Such changes are expected to continue in the future with anticipated further changing air temperature and precipitation that will likely influence the effects of N deposition. To investigate the potential long-term impacts of atmospheric N deposition on hardwood forest ecosystems in the eastern United States in the context of climate change, application of the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community model VSD+PROPS was explored at three sites in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee. This represents the first application of VSD+PROPS to forest ecosystems in the United States. Climate change and elevated (above mid-19th century) N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability. Although simulation results suggested that the suitability of these forests to support the continued presence of their characteristic understory plant species might decline by the year 2100, low data availability for building vegetation response models with PROPS resulted in uncertain results at the extremes of simulated N deposition. Future PROPS model development in the United States should focus on inclusion of additional foundational data or alternate candidate predictor variables to reduce these uncertainties. Climate change and elevated N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability for plants, and are expected to interact with changes in soil chemistry.
Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems
Dirnböck, Thomas ; Djukic, Ika ; Kitzler, Barbara ; Kobler, Johannes ; Mol, Janet ; Posch, Max ; Reinds, Gert Jan ; Schlutow, Angela ; Starlinger, Franz ; Wamelink, Wieger G.W. - \ 2017
PLoS ONE 12 (2017)9. - ISSN 1932-6203
Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.
Modelling long-term impacts of changes in climate, nitrogen deposition and ozone exposure on carbon sequestration of European forest ecosystems
Vries, Wim de; Posch, Maximilian ; Simpson, David ; Reinds, Gert Jan - \ 2017
Science of the Total Environment 605-606 (2017). - ISSN 0048-9697 - p. 1097 - 1116.
Carbon sequestration - Climate change - CO - Forest - Nitrogen deposition - Ozone
We modelled the effects of past and expected future changes in climate (temperature, precipitation), CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition (N) and ozone (O3) exposure (phytotoxic ozone dose, POD) on carbon (C) sequestration by European forest ecosystems for the period 1900–2050. Tree C sequestration was assessed by using empirical response functions, while soil C sequestration was simulated with the process-based model VSD, combined with the RothC model. We evaluated two empirical growth responses to N deposition (linear and non-linear) and two O3 exposure relationships (linear function with total biomass or net annual increment). We further investigated an ‘interactive model’ with interactions between drivers and a ‘multiplicative model’, in which the combined effect is the product of individual drivers. A single deposition and climate scenario was used for the period 1900–2050. Contrary to expectations, growth observations at European level for the period 1950–2010 compared better with predictions by the multiplicative model than with the interactive model. This coincides with the fact that carbon responses in kg C ha− 1 yr− 1 per unit change in drivers, i.e. per °C, ppm CO2, kg N ha− 1 yr− 1 and mmol m− 2 yr− 1 POD, are more in line with literature data when using the multiplicative model. Compared to 1900, the estimated European average total C sequestration in both forests and forest soils between 1950 and 2000 increased by 21% in the interactive model and by 41% in the multiplicative model, but observed changes were even higher. This growth increase is expected to decline between 2000 and 2050. The simulated changes between 1950 and 2000 were mainly due to the increase in both N deposition and CO2, while the predicted increases between 2000 and 2050 were mainly caused by the increase in CO2 and temperature, and to lesser extent a decrease in POD, counteracted by reduced N deposition.
Technical documentation of the soil model VSD+ : Status A
Mol-Dijkstra, J.P. ; Reinds, G.J. - \ 2017
Wageningen : Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment (WOt-technical report 88) - 88
soil - soil acidity - models - nutrient availability - soil carbon sequestration - climatic change - precipitation - bodem - bodemaciditeit - modellen - voedingsstoffenbeschikbaarheid - koolstofvastlegging in de bodem - klimaatverandering - neerslag
VSD+ is een model om de gevolgen te berekenen van atmosferische depositie en klimaatverandering voorbodemverzuring, de beschikbaarheid van voedingsstoffen en het vastleggen van koolstof. Het model isontwikkeld ter onderbouwing van strategieën om de uitstoot van zwavel (S) en stikstof (N) in Europa teverminderen. Dit document biedt een samenvatting van de theorie waar het model op gestoeld is, detechnische documentatie hiervan alsmede een beschrijving van het testen, het valideren en de sensitiviteitsanalysevan het model. De processen zoals beschreven in het artikel over VSD+ zijn met goed gevolg getest.De gevoeligheidsanalyse gaf aan dat de constante voor het evenwicht tussen H+ en Al3+ in de bodemoplossingen de Ca-verweringssnelheid de parameters zijn, die voor een groot gedeelte de waarde van degesimuleerde pH bepalen. Voor basenverzadiging zijn de belangrijkste parameters de uitwisselingsconstantetussen H+ en basische kationen en de verwering van Ca. Voor de C/N ratio van bodemorganische stof zijn Cen N in het strooisel en de opname van N zeer bepalende factoren. De nitraatconcentratie hangt sterk samenmet het nerslagoverschot en de netto input van N---VSD+ is a model to calculate effects of atmospheric deposition and climate change on soil acidification,nutrient availability and carbon sequestration. The model has been developed to support emission abatementstrategies of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. This document contains a summary of the modeltheory, technical documentation and descriptions of testing, validations and the sensitivity analysis of themodel. The processes described in the paper about VSD+ have been tested successfully. The sensitivityanalysis showed that the constant for the equilibrium between H+ and Al3+ in the soil solution and theweathering rate of Ca are the parameters that to a large extent determine the value of the simulated pH. Forbase saturation, most important parameters are the exchange constant between H+ and base cations andthe weathering of Ca. For the C/N ratio of soil organic matter, litterfall of C and N and the uptake of N areimportant influencing factors. The nitrate concentration strongly depends on the leaching flux and the net N input
|Knelpunten CLO (VSD+) : Tussenrapportage WOT-04-010-036.71
Mol, J.P. ; Reinds, G.J. - \ 2016
Wageningen : WOT Natuur en Milieu (WOt-interne notitie 165) - 30 p.
Modelling impacts of acid deposition and groundwater level on habitat quality and plant species diversity
Kros, J. ; Mol, J.P. ; Wamelink, G.W.W. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Hinsberg, A. van; Vries, W. de - \ 2016
Ecological Processes 5 (2016). - ISSN 2192-1709 - 19 p.
We quantified the effects of the site factors pH and nitrate (NO3) concentration in soil solution and groundwater level on the vegetation of terrestrial ecosystems for the Netherlands in response to changes in atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) deposition and groundwater level over the period 1990–2030. The assessment was made with the SMART2 model, a simple one-layer model including geochemical buffer processes, element cycling by litterfall, mineralisation and uptake, nitrogen transformation processes and element input through deposition, weathering and upward seepage.
To assess the effects of changes in abiotic site factors on the vegetation, we developed a simple plant diversity indicator for grassland, heathland and forest, based on the occurrence of target plant species and competing species. Species occurrence was calculated from the preferred ranges of each species for the NO3 concentration and pH in soil solution and mean spring groundwater level. Changes in the plant diversity indicator were assessed from effects of changes in the occurrence of target and competing plant species in response to changes in mean spring groundwater level and in pH and NO3 concentration, as calculated with SMART2. Calculations were made for combinations of five vegetation structure types (three forest types, semi-natural grassland and heathland) and seven soil types (three sandy soils, two clay soils, peat and loess soils) using a 250 × 250 m grid. We used data for atmospheric deposition and groundwater level in the past to assess trends between 1990 and 2010 and evaluated two future scenarios for the period 2010–2030: a Business as Usual and an Improved Environment scenario.
Comparison of model predictions on pH and NO3 with measured soil solution concentrations for forest showed a reasonable to good agreement for pH but rather poor for NO3. The largest impacts were found for the combination of the two Improved Environment scenarios.
Reductions in N and S deposition and an increase in groundwater level between 1990 and 2030 hardly caused changes in soil pH and only relatively small reductions in NO3 concentration (11–13%). Nevertheless, those changes caused a significant increase in plant diversity indicator.
Geostatistical prediction and simulation of European soil property maps
Heuvelink, Gerard B.M. ; Kros, Johannes ; Reinds, Gert Jan ; Vries, Wim de - \ 2016
Geoderma Regional 7 (2016)2. - ISSN 2352-0094 - p. 201 - 215.
Cambisols - Cokriging - Europe - Fluvisols - Geostatistics - Mapping - Soil properties - Uncertainty
A geostatistical model was developed and applied to predict six soil properties and soil horizon thickness for mineral A, B and C soil horizons at the European scale and quantify the associated prediction uncertainties. The soil properties are pH, organic carbon content, organic nitrogen content, clay and sand contents and bulk density. The geostatistical model takes a regression cokriging approach, in which correlations between soil properties and across soil horizons are taken into account. Non-stationarities in the means and variances are represented by mapping units of the generalised European soil and land cover maps. The model was calibrated using the combined WISE, SPADE 1 and EFSDB databases, which jointly contain approximately 3600 soil profiles, irregularly distributed over Europe. The resulting model showed for most soil properties strong dependencies on soil type and land cover, moderate correlations between soil property residuals, strong correlations across horizons, and moderate spatial correlation of regression residuals. Kriging predictions and simulations were made on a 5 km by 5 km grid. Uncertainties in the resulting maps are large, particularly in under-sampled parts of Europe and in strata with large spatial variation. We conclude that geostatistical prediction and simulation are useful techniques to quantify uncertainties in soil property maps at the European scale, but that many more observations are required to fully exploit the relationship with explanatory variables and improve mapping accuracy. One important advantage of the techniques used is that they yield a full probabilistic model, as required by Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation analyses of spatially distributed dynamic models that use soil properties as uncertain input. In particular, the results of this study have been used to analyse how uncertainty in soil properties propagate through terrestrial greenhouse gas emission models.
A model to calculate effects of atmospheric deposition on soil acidification, eutrophication and carbon sequestration
Bonten, L.T.C. ; Reinds, Gert Jan ; Posch, Maximilian - \ 2016
Environmental Modelling & Software 79 (2016). - ISSN 1364-8152 - p. 75 - 84.
Carbon sequestration - Dynamic model - Nitrogen - Soil acidification - VSD+
Triggered by the steep decline in sulphur deposition in Europe and North America over the last decades, research and emission reduction policies have shifted from acidification to the effects of nitrogen (N) deposition and climate change on plant species diversity and carbon (C) sequestration in soils and biomass. Consequently, soil-ecosystem models need to include detailed descriptions of C and N processes, and ideally provide output that link to plant species diversity models. We describe an extension of the Very Simple Dynamic (VSD) model, called VSD+, which includes an explicit description of C and N turnover. Model simulations for three forest stands, which differ in N deposition and soil C/N ratios, show that VSD+ can well predict both trends and absolute values of NO3 and NH4 concentrations in soil and stream waters, soil C/N ratios and pH, which makes VSD+ suitable for providing input for plant species diversity models.
Assessment of critical loads of sulphur and nitrogen and their exceedances for terrestrial ecosystems in the northern hemisphere
Reinds, G.J. ; Posch, M. ; Aherne, J. ; Forsius, M. - \ 2015
In: Critical Loads and Dynamic Risk Assessments / de Vries, W., Hettelingh, J.P., Posch, M., Dordrecht : Springer (Environmental Pollution ) - ISBN 9789401795074 - p. 403 - 417.
In this chapter an assessment of critical loads of sulphur and nitrogen for forests and (semi-)natural vegetation and their exceedances in the boreal and temperate region of the Northern Hemisphere (excluding the contiguous USA) is reported. Critical loads were estimated using steady-state mass balance methods (see Chap. 6). The influence of different chemical criteria on critical loads and their exceedances was also evaluated.
Critical loads of nitrogen and sulphur to avert acidification and eutrophication in Europe and Chna
Posch, Maximilian ; Duan, L. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Zhao, Yu - \ 2015
Landscape Ecology 30 (2015)3. - ISSN 0921-2973 - p. 487 - 499.
Introduction Forests and other (semi-)natural ecosystems
provide a range of ecosystem services, such as
purifyingwater, stabilizing soils and nutrient cycles, and
providing habitats for plants and wildlife. Critical loads
are a well-established effects-based approach that has
been used for assessing the environmental consequences
of air pollution on large regional or national scales.
Materials and methods Typically critical loads of
sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) have been derived
separately for characterizing the vulnerability of
ecosystems to acidification (by S and N) and eutrophication
(by N). In this paper we combine the two
approaches and use multiple criteria, such as critical
pH and N concentrations in soil solution, to define a
single critical load function of N and S.
Results and conclusions The methodology is used to
compute and map critical loads ofNand S in two regions
of comparable size, Europe andChina.We also assess the
exceedance of those critical loads under globally modelled
present and selected futureNand S depositions.We
also present an analysis, in which the sensitivity of the
critical loads and their exceedances to the choice of the
chemical criteria is investigated. As pH and N concentration
in soil solution are abiotic variables also linked to
plant species occurrence, this approach has the potential
for deriving critical loads for plant species diversity.
A biodiversity indicator for the assessment of nitrogen deposition
Wamelink, G.W.W. ; Mol, J.P. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Bonten, L.T.C. ; Jochem, R. ; Goedhart, P.W. - \ 2015
- p. 118 - 118.
Field survey based models for exploring nitrogen and acidity effects on plant species diversity and assessing long-term critical loads
Rowe, E.C. ; Wamelink, G.W.W. ; Smart, S.M. ; Butler, A. ; Henrys, P.A. ; Dobben, H.F. van; Reinds, G.J. ; Evans, C. ; Kros, J. ; Vries, W. de - \ 2015
In: Critical Loads and Dynamic Risk Assessments: Nitrogen, Acidity and Metals in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems, Environmental Pollution / de Vries, W., Hettelingh, J.P., Posch, M., Springer Verlag - ISBN 9789401795081 - p. 297 - 326.
Empirical critical loads are based on current evidence for relationships between the rate of pollutant deposition and changes to ecosystems observed in experiments and surveys. When considering longer-term change and effects of changes in deposition rate after periods of deposition in excess of the critical load, dynamic modelling approaches are useful. This chapter describes two soil-vegetation-floristics model chains, similar in concept, that are being applied in the Netherlands and the UK to explore pollution scenarios and calculate long-term critical loads for acidity and nutrient-N. These model chains consist of dynamic models of soil and vegetation biogeochemistry, combined with environmental suitability models that define the realised niche for the species or assemblage. The environmental suitability models described in this chapter are based on empirical relationships between species (MOVE, PROPS, MultiMOVE) or assemblage (NTM3) occurrence and environmental conditions, defined on multiple axes. They are driven by different biogeochemical models, forming the model chains SMART2-(SUMO2)-PROPS/NTM3 and MADOC-MultiMOVE. In this chapter these model chains are described in detail, and applications to scenario exploration and setting critical loads are demonstrated.
Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe
Wolf, J. ; Kanellopoulos, Argyris ; Kros, J. ; Webber, H. ; Zhao, G. ; Britz, W. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Ewert, F. ; Vries, W. de - \ 2015
Agricultural Systems 140 (2015). - ISSN 0308-521X - p. 56 - 73.
In this study, we compare the relative importance of climate change to technological, management, price and policy changes on European arable farming systems. This required linking four models: the SIMPLACE crop growth modelling framework to calculate future yields under climate change for arable crops; the CAPRI model to estimate impacts on global agricultural markets, specifically product prices; the bio-economic farm model FSSIM to calculate the future changes in cropping patterns and farm net income at the farm and regional level; and the environmental model INTEGRATOR to calculate nitrogen (N) uptake and losses to air and water. First, the four linked models were applied to analyse the effect of climate change only or a most likely baseline (i.e. B1) scenario for 2050 as well as for two alternative scenarios with, respectively, strong (i.e. A1-b1) and weak economic growth (B2) for five regions/countries across Europe (i.e. Denmark, Flevoland, Midi Pyrenées, Zachodniopomorski and Andalucia). These analyses were repeated but assuming in addition to climate change impacts, also the effects of changes in technology and management on crop yields, the effects of changes in prices and policies in 2050, and the effects of all factors together. The outcomes show that the effects of climate change to 2050 result in higher farm net incomes in the Northern and Northern-Central EU regions, in practically unchanged farm net incomes in the Central and Central-Southern EU regions, and in much lower farm net incomes in Southern EU regions compared to those in the base year. Climate change in combination with improved technology and farm management and/or with price changes towards 2050 results in a higher to much higher farm net incomes. Increases in farm net income for the B1 and A1-b1 scenarios are moderately stronger than those for the B2 scenario, due to the smaller increases in product prices and/or yields for the B2 scenario. Farm labour demand slightly to moderately increases towards 2050 as related to changes in cropping patterns. Changes in N2O emissions and N leaching compared to the base year are mainly caused by changes in total N inputs from the applied fertilizers and animal manure, which in turn are influenced by changes in crop yields and cropping patterns, whereas NH3 emissions are mainly determined by assumed improvements in manure application techniques. N emissions and N leaching strongly increase in Denmark and Zachodniopomorski, slightly decrease to moderately increase in Flevoland and Midi-Pyrenées, and strongly decrease in Andalucia, except for NH3 emissions which zero to moderately decrease in Flevoland and Denmark.
Effects-based integrated assessment modelling for the support of European air pollution abatement policies
Hettelingh, J.P. ; Posch, M. ; Slootweg, J. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Vries, W. de; Gall, A. Le; Maas, R. - \ 2015
In: Critical Loads and Dynamic Risk Assessments: Nitrogen, Acidity and Metals in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems / de Vries, W., Hettelingh, J.P., Posch, M., Springer (Environmental Pollution 25) - ISBN 9789401795081 - p. 613 - 635.
Critical load and exceedance based indicators for effects of air pollution are used to define and compare air pollution abatement scenarios, thus assisting in the framing of policies and strategies, of emission abatement options. In this chapter the effects-based support of European air pollution abatement policies since the early 1990s is described. The systematic use of computed as well as empirical critical loads and other impact assessment methodologies, such as dynamic modelling, are addressed. Computed impacts of policy alternatives that have been considered to alleviate acidification and eutrophication are compared, including the relative robustness of the magnitude and location of these impacts in Europe. It is concluded that policies have led to significant reductions in the acidification over the whole of Europe, such that expected impacts are currently minimal. With respect to eutrophication it is concluded that the excessive atmospheric deposition of nitrogen compounds will continue to have detrimental impacts on plant biodiversity and ecosystems, unless emissions of oxidized and reduced nitrogen are further reduced.
Critical loads of cadmium, lead and mercury and their exceedances in Europe
Hettelingh, J.P. ; Schütze, G. ; Vries, W. de; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C. ; Ilyin, I. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Slootweg, J. ; Travnikov, O. - \ 2015
In: Critical Loads and Dynamic Risk Assessments: Nitrogen, Acidity and Metals in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems / de Vries, W., Hettelingh, J.P., Posch, M., Springer (Environmental Pollution 25) - ISBN 9789401795081 - p. 523 - 546.
In this chapter information is summarized on the assessment of the risk of impacts of cadmium, lead and mercury emissions and related depositions of these metals, with an emphasis on natural areas in Europe. Depositions are compared to critical loads to identify areas in Europe where critical loads are exceeded. Critical loads of cadmium, lead and mercury were based on (i) computations by 18 Parties to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) and (ii) computations from available data on soil chemistry, meteorology and land cover for the other Parties. Two target years are considered, i.e. 2010 and 2020. Emissions for these years have been assessed in support of the negotiations for the review and possible revision of the Heavy metal protocol (Aarhus 1998). The relationship between emissions, depositions and critical load exceedances is analysed assuming the implementation of abatement techniques under Current LEgislation in 2010 (CLE2010) and in 2020 under Full Implementation of the Aarhus protocol (FI2020). Comparing the critical loads to atmospheric depositions in these years, shows that cadmium deposition is not a widespread risk in either years, that the computed risk of lead deposition affects about 22 and 16¿% of natural European area in 2010 and 2020, respectively, and that mercury deposition is computed to affect an area of more than 74¿% in both years.