Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply, demand, and impacts
Wicke, B. ; Hilst, F. van der; Daioglou, V. ; Banse, M. ; Beringer, T. ; Gerssen-Gondelach, S. ; Heijnen, S. ; Karssenberg, D. ; Laborde, D. ; Lippe, M. ; Meijl, H. van; Nassar, A. ; Powell, J.P. ; Prins, A.G. ; Rose, S.N.K. ; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Stehfest, E. ; Tyner, W.E. ; Verstegen, J.A. ; Valin, H. ; Vuuren, D.P. van; Yeh, S. ; Faaij, A.P.C. - \ 2015
Global change biology Bioenergy 7 (2015)3. - ISSN 1757-1693 - p. 422 - 437.
land-use change - global agricultural markets - greenhouse-gas emissions - eu biofuel policies - bioenergy production - united-states - energy crops - trade-offs - bio-energy - ethanol
Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales, or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage. Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches can help assess (i) the causes of differences and similarities in model output, which is important for interpreting the results for policy-making and (ii) the linkages, feedbacks, and trade-offs between different systems and impacts (e.g., economic and natural), which is key to a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of biomass supply and demand. But, full consistency or integration in assumptions, structure, solution algorithms, dynamics and feedbacks can be difficult to achieve. And, if it is done, it frequently implies a trade-off in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal, and structural) and/or computation. Three key research areas are selected to illustrate how model collaboration can provide additional ways for tackling some of the shortcomings and uncertainties in the assessment of biomass supply and demand and their impacts. These research areas are livestock production, agricultural residues, and greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change. Describing how model collaboration might look like in these examples, we show how improved model collaboration can strengthen our ability to project biomass supply, demand, and impacts. This in turn can aid in improving the information for policy-makers and in taking better-informed decisions.
Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets
Friedlingstein, P. ; Andrew, R.M. ; Rogelj, J. ; Schaeffer, M. ; Vuuren, D.P. van - \ 2014
Nature Geoscience 7 (2014). - ISSN 1752-0894 - p. 709 - 715.
cumulative carbon emissions - dioxide - temperature - variability - mitigation - scenarios - storage - system - policy - 2-degrees-c
Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2 °C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. We show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota.
Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways
Chuwah, C.D. ; Noije, T. van; Vuuren, D.P. van; Hazeleger, W. ; Strunk, A. ; Deetman, S. ; Beltran, A.M. ; Vliet, J. van de - \ 2013
Atmospheric Environment 79 (2013). - ISSN 1352-2310 - p. 787 - 801.
intercomparison project accmip - greenhouse-gas concentrations - atmospheric chemistry - tropospheric ozone - next-generation - climate-change - model - emissions - stabilization - simulations
The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) only explore part of this range as they all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented. In this study, we explore how different assumptions on future air pollution policy and climate policy lead to different concentrations of air pollutants for a set of RCP-like scenarios developed using the IMAGE model. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W m(-2) and 6.0 W m(-2). Simulations using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 for the present-day climate show that both climate mitigation and air pollution control policies have large-scale effects on pollutant concentrations, often of similar magnitude. If no further air pollution policies would be implemented, pollution levels could be considerably higher than in the RCPs, especially in Asia. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate by 2020, and in the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other on a global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W m(-2) in the 6.0 W m(-2) scenario and -0.16 W m(-2) in the 2.6 W m(-2) scenario. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
Vuuren, D.P. van; Riahi, K. ; Moss, R. ; Edmonds, J. ; Thomson, A. ; Nakicenovic, N. ; Kram, T. ; Berkhout, F. ; Swart, R.J. ; Janetos, A. ; Rose, S.K. ; Arnell, N. - \ 2012
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 22 (2012)1. - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 21 - 35.
expert judgments - impact assessment - vulnerability - costs - stabilization - adaptation - strategies
In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.
An evaluation of the global potential of bioenergy production on degraded lands
Nijsen, M. ; Smeets, E.M.W. ; Stehfest, E. ; Vuuren, D.P. van - \ 2012
Global change biology Bioenergy 4 (2012)2. - ISSN 1757-1693 - p. 130 - 147.
miscanthus x giganteus - energy crop - carbon sequestration - biomass production - soil-erosion - switchgrass - biofuels - cover - management - yields
In this article the global potential of energy crop production on degraded lands was estimated using detailed, spatially explicit data about the area, type and extent of degradation derived from the Global Assessment of Land Degradation Dataset, and by combining this dataset with various spatially explicit data sets. Next, an estimate was made of the possible yield of perennial energy crops on the degraded areas as a function of the type and degree of degradation. Lightly degraded areas were not included, as these areas might be suitable for conventional food production. The total global potential energy production on degraded lands was assessed to be slightly above 150 and 190EJyr-1, for grassy and woody energy crops, respectively. Most of this potential, however, is on areas currently classified as forest, cropland or pastoral land, leaving a potential of around 25 and 32EJyr-1 on other land cover categories. Most of the potential energy crop production on degraded land is located in developing regions. China has a total potential of 30EJyr-1, of which 4EJyr-1 from areas classified as other land. Also USA, Brazil, West Africa, East Africa, Russia and India have substantial potentials of 1218EJyr-1, with up to 30% of the potential from areas classified as other land.
Indirect land use change: review of existing models and strategies for mitigation
Wicke, B. ; Verweij, P. ; Meijl, H. van; Vuuren, D.P. van; Faaij, A.P.C. - \ 2012
Biofuels 3 (2012)1. - ISSN 1759-7269 - p. 87 - 100.
This study reviews the current status, uncertainties and shortcomings of existing models of land use change (LUC) and associated GHG emissions as a result of biofuel production. The study also identifies options for improving the models and conducting further analysis. Moreover, because the extent of indirect LUC related to biofuels largely depends on other land uses, particularly agriculture, this study explores strategies for mitigating overall LUC and its effects. Despite recent improvements and refinements of the models, this review finds large uncertainties, primarily related to the underlying data and assumptions of the market-equilibrium models. Thus, there is still considerable scope for further scientific improvements of the modeling efforts. In addition, analyzing how overall LUC and its effects can be minimized is an important topic for further research and can deliver more concrete input for developing proper policy strategies. Future studies should investigate the impact of sustainability criteria and the effects of strategies for mitigating LUC, such as increasing agricultural efficiency, optimizing bioenergy production chains, using currently unused residues and byproducts, and producing feedstocks on degraded and marginal land.
A comprehensive view on climate change: coupling of Earth system and integrated assessment models
Vuuren, D.P. van; Batlle Bayer, L. ; Chuwah, C. ; Ganzeveld, L.N. ; Hazeleger, W. ; Hurk, B. van den; Noije, T. van; O'Neill, B. ; Strengers, B.J. - \ 2012
Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012)2. - ISSN 1748-9326
carbon-cycle models - land-cover change - environmental-change - atmosphere-ocean - simpler model - scenarios - emissions - impact - feedbacks - dynamics
There are several reasons to strengthen the cooperation between the integrated assessment (IA) and earth system (ES) modeling teams in order to better understand the joint development of environmental and human systems. This cooperation can take many different forms, ranging from information exchange between research communities to fully coupled modeling approaches. Here, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches and try to establish some guidelines for their applicability, based mainly on the type of interaction between the model components (including the role of feedback), possibilities for simplification and the importance of uncertainty. We also discuss several important areas of joint IA–ES research, such as land use/land cover dynamics and the interaction between climate change and air pollution, and indicate the type of collaboration that seems to be most appropriate in each case. We find that full coupling of IA–ES models might not always be the most desirable form of cooperation, since in some cases the direct feedbacks between IA and ES may be too weak or subject to considerable process or scenario uncertainty. However, when local processes are important, it could be important to consider full integration. By encouraging cooperation between the IA and ES communities in the future more consistent insights can be developed.
What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions? A letter
Vuuren, D.P. van; Edmonds, J. ; Smith, S.J. ; Calvin, K.V. ; Karas, J. ; Kainuma, M. ; Nakicenovic, N. ; Riahi, K. ; Ruijven, B.J. ; Swart, R.J. ; Thomson, A. - \ 2010
Climatic Change 103 (2010)3-4. - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 635 - 642.
carbon-dioxide - sres scenarios - energy - future - trends - model
Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years) Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them
Phosphorus demand for the 1970-2100 period: A scenario analysis of resource depletion
Vuuren, D.P. van; Bouwman, A.F. ; Beusen, A.H.W. - \ 2010
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 20 (2010)3. - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 428 - 439.
world - flows - environment - perspective - nutrient
The phosphorus (P) cycle has been significantly altered by human activities. For this paper, we explored the sustainability of current P flows in terms of resource depletion and the ultimate fate of these flows. The analysis shows that rapid depletion of extractable phosphate rock is not very likely, in the near term. Under best estimates, depletion would be around 20-35%. In worst case scenarios, about 40-60% of the current resource base would be extracted by 2100. At the same time, production will concentrate in Asia, Africa and West Asia, and production costs will likely have increased. As there are no substitutes for phosphorus plant nutrients in agriculture, arguably even partial depletion of P resources may in the long run be relevant for the sustainability of agriculture. Consumption trends lead to large flows of phosphorus to surface water and a considerable build-up of phosphorus in agricultural soils in arable lands. This may allow a reduction in future P fertiliser application rates in crop production. Results also indicate a global depletion of P pools in soils under grassland, which may be a threat to ruminant production.
Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios
Manning, M.R. ; Edmonds, J. ; Emori, S. ; Grubler, A. ; Hibbard, K. ; Joos, F. ; Kainuma, M. ; Keeling, R.F. ; Kram, T. ; Manning, A.C. ; Meinshausen, M. ; Moss, R. ; Nakicenovic, N. ; Riahi, K. ; Rose, S.K. ; Smith, S. ; Swart, R.J. ; Vuuren, D.P. van - \ 2010
Nature Geoscience 3 (2010)6. - ISSN 1752-0894 - p. 376 - 377.
trends
Scenarios and models for exploring future trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services changes. Final report to the European Commission, DG Environment on Contract
Tucker, G.M. ; McConville, A.J. ; McCoy, K. ; Brink, P. ten; Braat, L.C. ; Arets, E.J.M.M. ; Bräuer, I. ; Gerdes, H. ; Grunig, M. ; Beese, K. ; Kram, T. ; Bakkes, J. ; Oorschot, M.M.P. van; Heuermann, N. ; Vuuren, D.P. van; Walpole, M. ; Scharlemann, J.P.W. ; Kershaw, F. - \ 2009
Londen Engeland : IEEP, Alterra, Ecologic, PBL and UNEP-WCMC - 157
biodiversiteit - ecosystemen - modellen - ecosysteemdiensten - biodiversity - ecosystems - models - ecosystem services
The effect of different mitigation strategies on international financing of adaptation
Hof, A.F. ; Bruin, K.C. de; Dellink, R.B. ; Elzen, M.G.J. den; Vuuren, D.P. van - \ 2009
Environmental Science & Policy 12 (2009)7. - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 832 - 843.
climate-change - greenhouse gases - damage costs - trade-offs - model - policy - projections - economics - targets - regimes
Recent proposals at the UNFCCC meeting in Bali in December 2007 suggest that a 2% levy on the CDM could finance adaptation costs in developing regions. Other proposals include extending the scope of the levy to emissions trading. This study applies an Integrated Assessment Model to gain insight in the interactions between adaptation costs, residual damages and mitigation costs and to analyse the effectiveness of a 2% levy on both the CDM and emissions trading from developing countries. We show that adaptation is especially important in lower income regions where damages are higher. The revenues of a 2% levy strongly depend on both the climate mitigation target and the burden-sharing regime. A more stringent climate mitigation target results in more emissions trade and, in the longer run, less need for adaptation. Both factors increase the share of adaptation costs that can be funded. The burden-sharing regime strongly affects the revenues of a 2% levy as well: relatively more stringent targets for developed countries increase the revenues of a 2% levy. However, in the next two decades the share of adaptation that can be financed remains well below 20% in most cases. Additional funding mechanisms are therefore necessary to substantially finance adaptation costs in developing countries.
Climate benefits of changing diet
Stehfest, E. ; Bouwman, A.F. ; Vuuren, D.P. van; Elzen, M. ; Kabat, P. - \ 2009
Climatic Change 95 (2009)1-2. - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 83 - 102.
voedselconsumptie - klimaatverandering - klimaatadaptatie - broeikasgassen - milieueffect - landgebruik - dierlijke productie - food consumption - climatic change - climate adaptation - greenhouse gases - environmental impact - land use - animal production - greenhouse-gas - ecosystem responses - global change - emissions - targets - costs - scenarios - systems - health - model
Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.
Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk
Schaeffer, M. ; Kram, T. ; Meinshausen, M. ; Vuuren, D.P. van; Hare, W.L. - \ 2008
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105 (2008)52. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 20621 - 20626.
integrated assessment - benefit-analysis - sensitivity - uncertainty
One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global warming often rise rapidly, even exponentially, as the scale of emission reductions from a reference level increases. This rapid rise may suggest that more ambitious policies may be prohibitively expensive. Here, we propose a probabilistic perspective, focused on the relationship between mitigation costs and the likelihood of achieving a climate target. We investigate the qualitative, functional relationship between the likelihood of achieving a normative target and the costs of climate-change mitigation. In contrast to the example of exponentially rising costs for lowering concentration levels, we show that the mitigation costs rise proportionally to the likelihood of meeting a temperature target, across a range of concentration levels. In economic terms investing in climate mitigation to increase the probability of achieving climate targets yields ¿constant returns to scale,¿ because of a counterbalancing rapid rise in the probabilities of meeting a temperature target as concentration is lowered
Sectoral Emission Mitigation Potentials: Comparing Bottum-Up and Top-Down Approaches
Hoogwijk, M. ; Vuuren, D.P. van; Boeters, S. ; Blok, K. ; Blomen, E. ; Barker, T. ; Chateau, J. ; Grübler, A. ; Masui, T. ; Nabuurs, G.J. ; Novikova, A. ; Riahi, K. ; Rue du Can, S. de la; Sathaye, J. ; Scrieciu, S. ; Urge-Vorsatz, D. ; Vliet, J.M. van - \ 2008
Utrecht : Ecofys - 9 p.
Vleesconsumptie en klimaatbeleid
Stehfest, E. ; Bouwman, A.F. ; Vuuren, D.P. van; Elzen, M.G.J. den; Eickhout, B. ; Jeuken, M. ; Oorschot, M. van; Kabat, P. - \ 2008
Bilthoven : Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL rapport 50011004/2008) - 32
vleeswaren - voedselconsumptie - klimaatverandering - biodiversiteit - broeikasgassen - landgebruik - dieet - milieueffect - vleesvervangers - meat products - food consumption - climatic change - biodiversity - greenhouse gases - land use - diet - environmental impact - meat alternates
In deze studie wordt de mogelijke invloed van dieetveranderingen op de kosten van ambitieuze klimaatdoelstellingen verkend. Doel van de studie is uitsluitend om in te schatten wat de wereldwijde bijdrage van dieetverandering kan zijn. De vleesconsumptie wordt aangepast in vier varianten van dieetverandering: GeenHerkauwers (geen vlees van herkauwers), GeenVlees (geheel geen vlees), GeenDierproducten (geen enkel dierlijk product) en WilettDieet (een 'gezond' dieet). Hiervoor wordt het geïntegreerde model IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) gebruikt. Ook worden resultaten voor landgebruik en biodiversiteit gegeven
Het IPCC-rapport en de betekenis voor Nederland
Dorland, R. van; Janssen, B. ; Brink, H. van den; Drijfhout, S. ; Haak, H. ; Haarsma, R. ; Hazelegger, W. ; Hurk, B. van den; Katsman, C. ; Kattenberg, A. ; Komen, G. ; Lenderink, G. ; Oldenborgh, G.J. van; Reijmerink, M. ; Siegmund, P. ; Weber, N. ; Hove, B. van; Veraart, J.A. ; Verhagen, J. ; Berkhout, F. ; Bouwer, L. ; Eickhout, B. ; Haanstra, H. ; Kabat, P. ; Leemans, R. ; Tak, M. ; Meyer, L. ; Vuuren, D.P. van; Seedrechts, A. ; Bosch, P. ; Daniëls, B. ; Ybema, R. ; Drunen, M. van; Meijer, N. - \ 2007
De Bilt / Wageningen : PCCC - Platform Communication on Climate Change - 52
klimaatverandering - inventarisaties - wetenschappelijk onderzoek - climatic change - inventories - scientific research
Het IPCC brengt verspreid over 2007 in vier delen het vierde klimaatrapport uit (Fourth Assessment Report - AR4). Het geeft daarmee de nieuwste inzichten op het gebied van klimaatverandering in de wereld. Aan het AR4 hebben honderden gerenommeerde klimaatonderzoekers uit de hele wereld meegewerkt, waaronder verschillende uit Nederland. De hoofdrapporten met de wetenschappelijke onderbouwing komen dit jaar stapsgewijs beschikbaar. Eind november volgt het zogeheten ‘synthesis report’ van het IPCC. In dit rapport zullen de bevindingen en conclusies van de drie werkgroeprapporten in samenhang beschouwd worden om zo een integraal wetenschappelijk beeld te geven van ons huidige begrip van klimaatverandering. Deze stand van zaken rond klimaatverandering en Nederland wordt gegeven door: MNP, KNMI, VU Amsterdam, Universiteit Utrecht, NWO, Wageningen UR en ECN
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