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Methods for environment: Productivity trade-off analysis in agricultural systems
Wijk, M.T. van; Klapwijk, C.J. ; Rosenstock, T.S. ; Asten, P.J.A. van; Thornton, P.K. ; Giller, K.E. - \ 2016
In: Methods for Measuring Greenhouse Gas Balances and Evaluating Mitigation Options in Smallholder Agriculture / , T.S. Rosenstock, Rufino, M.C., Butterbach-Bahl, K., Wollenberg, E., Richards, M., Cham : Springer International Publishing - ISBN 9783319297927 - p. 189 - 198.
Trade-off analysis has become an increasingly important approach for evaluating system level outcomes of agricultural production and for prioritising and targeting management interventions in multi-functional agricultural landscapes. We review the strengths and weakness of different techniques available for performing trade-off analysis. These techniques, including mathematical programming and participatory approaches, have developed substantially in recent years aided by mathematical advancement, increased computing power, and emerging insights into systems behaviour. The strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches are identified and discussed, and we make suggestions for a tiered approach for situations with different data availability.
Scoping climate change adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in East Africa - a multi-dimensional, multi-scenario impact assessment
Claessens, L.F.G. ; Antle, J.M. ; Stoorvogel, J.J. ; Valdivia, R.O. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Herrero, M. - \ 2015
In: Climate change challenges and adaptations at farm-level: case studies from Asia and Africa / Singh, N.P., Bantilan, C., Byjesh, K., Nedumaran, S., CABI (CABI Climate Change Series ) - ISBN 9781780644639 - p. 138 - 145.
This chapter assesses the characteristics of current and future agricultural systems, land use, agricultural output, output price, cost of production, and farm and household size in response to climate change. This analysis also compared both current and projected future climate (2030), with and without adaptation, and for different socioeconomic scenarios (Representative Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) in two study areas in Kenya. A new approach to impact assessment, the Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) was adopted for this analysis, which simulated technology adoption and associated economic, environmental and social outcomes in a heterogeneous farm population for a regional impact assessment. These case studies yield new insights into the way that adaptation strategies could improve the livelihoods of smallholder farmers operating in the mixed crop-livestock systems in East Africa.
Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change
Vervoort, J.M. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Kristjansson, P. ; Foerch, W. ; Ericksen, P.J. ; Kok, K. ; Ingram, J.S. ; Herrero, M. ; Palazzo, A. ; Helfgott, A.E.S. ; Wilkinson, A. ; Havlik, P. ; Mason-D’Croz, D. ; Jost, C. - \ 2014
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 28 (2014). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 383 - 394.
sustainable development - uncertainty - agriculture - systems - adaptation - knowledge - science - scales
This paper examines the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change. Three challenges arehighlighted: (1) ensuring the appropriate scope for action; (2) moving beyond intervention-based decision guidance; and (3) developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning. To overcome these challenges we have applied explorative scenarios and normative back-casting with stakeholders from different sectors at the regional level in East Africa. We then applied lessons about appropriate scope, enabling adaptation pathways, and developing strategic planning capacity to scenarios processes in multiple global regions. Scenarios were created to have a broad enough scope to be relevant to diverse actors, and then adapted by different actor groups to ensure their salience in specific decision contexts. The initial strategy for using the scenarios by bringing a range of actors together to explore new collaborative proposals had limitations as well as strengths versus the application of scenarios for specific actor groups and existing decision pathways. Scenarios development and use transitioned from an intervention-based process to an embedded process characterized by continuous engagement. Feasibility and long-term sustainability could be ensured by having decision makers own the process and focusing on developing strategic planning capacity within their home organizations.
Analysis of trade-offs in agricultural systems: current status and way forward
Klapwijk, C.J. ; Wijk, M.T. van; Rosenstock, T.S. ; Asten, P.J.A. van; Thornton, P.K. ; Giller, K.E. - \ 2014
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 6 (2014)2. - ISSN 1877-3435 - p. 110 - 115.
crop-livestock systems - land-use - conservation agriculture - management-practices - climate-change - africa - strategies - knowledge - resource - science
Trade-off analysis has become an increasingly important approach for evaluating system level outcomes of agricultural production and for prioritizing and targeting management interventions in multifunctional agricultural landscapes. We review the state-of-the-art for trade-off analysis, assessing different techniques by exploring a concrete example of trade-offs around the use of crop residues in smallholder farming systems. The techniques for performing trade-off analyses have developed substantially in recent years aided by mathematical advancement, increased computing power, and emerging insights into systems behaviour. Combining different techniques allows the assessment of aspects of system behaviour via various perspectives, thereby generating complementary knowledge. However, this does not solve the fundamental challenge: trade-off analyses without substantial stakeholder engagement often have limited practical utility for informing practical decision-making. We suggest ways to integrate approaches and improve the potential for societal impact of future trade-off analyses.
A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data
Claessens, L.F.G. ; Antle, J.M. ; Stoorvogel, J.J. ; Valdivia, R.O. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Herrero, M. - \ 2012
Agricultural Systems 111 (2012). - ISSN 0308-521X - p. 85 - 95.
ecosystem services - developing-countries - technology adoption - western kenya - crop yield - impacts - systems - africa - sustainability - agriculture
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negative impacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in thecontext of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. High data demands includingsite-specific bio-physical and economic data are an important constraint. This paper applies a newapproach to impact assessment, the Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment(TOA-MD), which simulates technology adoption and associated economic, environmental and social outcomes in a heterogeneous farm population for a regional impact assessment. The methodology uses thekinds of survey, experimental and modeled data that are typically available in countries where semi-subsistencesystems are important, combined with future socio-economic scenarios based on new scenario pathway concepts being developed by the climate change and impact assessment modeling communities. Characteristics of current and future agricultural systems, including land use, output, output price, cost of production, and farm and household size are analyzed and compared for both current and projected future climate (2030), with and without adaptation, and for different socio-economic scenarios. The methodology is applied to two study areas in Kenya. These case studies show the potential of this approach to provide a flexible, generic framework that can use available and modeled data to evaluate climate impact and adaptation strategies under a range of socio-economic scenarios.
Adapting to climate change in potato and sweet potato systems in East Africa
Claessens, L.F.G. ; Stoorvogel, J.J. ; Antle, J.M. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Herrero, M. - \ 2011
In: Conference Abstracts International conference Challenges and Opportunities for Agricultural Intensification of the Humid Highland Systems of sub-Saharan Africa, Kigali, Rwanda, 23-27 October 2011. - Nairobi, Kenya : CIALCA - p. 211 - 211.
|Assessing climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale, semi-subsistence farming
Claessens, L.F.G. ; Antle, J.M. ; Stoorvogel, J.J. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Herrero, M. - \ 2011
In: Book of Abstracts of the International Congress Water 2011, Mekelle, Ethiopia, 19-26 September 2011. - Leuven, Belgium : Katholieke Universiteit Leuven - p. 23 - 23.
A novel methodology for ex ante assessment of climate change adaptation strategies: examples from East Africa
Stoorvogel, J.J. ; Claessens, L.F.G. ; Antle, J.M. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Herrero, M. - \ 2011
In: Book of Abstracts of the International Conference Crop Improvement, Ideotyping, and Modelling for African Cropping Systems under Climate Change - CIMAC, University of Hohenheim, Germany, 7-9- February 2011. - Stuttgart : University of Hohenheim - p. 29 - 29.
A novel methodology for ex ante assessment of climate change adaptation strategies: examples from East Africa JETSE STOORVOGEL3, LIEVEN CLAESSEN1, JOHN ANTLE2, PHILIP THORNTON4, MARIO HERRERO4 1 International Potato Center, Nairobi, Kenya 2 Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA 3 Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands 4 International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negativeimpacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in the context of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. An important constraint is that data demands are high, because site-specific biophysical and economic data are required. The development of relatively simple methods for ex ante evaluation of adaptation at the household and system levels is therefore needed. We test a new approach to ex ante impact assessment that produces site-specific results that can also be aggregated for regional analysis. The methodology uses the kinds of data that are more often available in resource-poor countries. The stochastic approach integrates socioeconomic and bio-physical data on farmers’ land allocation, production, input and output use. Characteristics of the agricultural system regarding resources and productivity are analyzed and compared for both current and projected climate. Possible adaptation strategies are then assessed for their capability to reduce or offset the adverse effects of climate change. In this paper we apply the methodology to two study areas in Kenya. After characterizing the current systems with actual climate data, the effects of a perturbed climate are analyzed and a variety of adaptation strategies tested. Despite the limitations, the new approach offers a flexible framework for evaluating adaptation strategies using scarce data of resource-poor countries in SSA and other parts of the world. It allows a rapid integrative analysis for timely advice to policymakers and for exploration of technology and policy options. Keywords: adaptation, climate change, sweet potato, East Africa, impact assessment Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: The importance of getting the numbers right
Herrero, M. ; Gerber, P. ; Vellinga, Th.V. ; Garnett, T. ; Leip, A. ; Opio, C. ; Westhoek, H.J. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Olesen, J. ; Hutchings, N. ; Montgomery, H. ; Soussana, J.F. ; Steinfeld, H. ; McAllister, T.A. - \ 2011
Animal Feed Science and Technology 166-167 (2011). - ISSN 0377-8401 - p. 779 - 782.
Estimates of global greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions attributable to livestock range from 8 to 51%. This variability creates confusion among policy makers and the public as it suggests that there is a lack of consensus among scientists with regard to the contribution of livestock to global GHG emissions. In reality, estimates of international scientific organizations such as the International Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are in close agreement, with variation mainly arising on how GHG emissions are allocated to land use and land use change. Other estimates involve major deviations from international protocols, such as estimated global warming potential of CH4 or including respired CO2 in GHG emissions. These approaches also fail to differentiate short-term CO2 arising from oxidation of plant C by ruminants from CO2 released from fixed fossil C through combustion. These deviances from internationally accepted protocols create confusion and direct attention from anthropomorphic practices which have the most important contribution to global GHG emissions. Global estimates of livestock GHG emissions are most reliable when they are generated by internationally recognized scientific panels with expertise across a range of disciplines, and with no preconceived bias to particular outcomes
|Prioritizing, targeting and monitoring science, technology and policy options for poor smallholders: examples from the CGIAR
Wood, S. ; Legg, C. ; Claessens, L. ; Herrero, M. ; Thornton, P.K. - \ 2010
|A minimum data approach for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies in East Africa
Claessens, L. ; Antle, J.M. ; Stoorvogel, J.J. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Herrero, M. - \ 2010
|The Way Forward for Livestock and the Environment
Herrero, M. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Gerber, P. ; Zijpp, A.J. van der; Steeg, J. van de; Notenbaert, A.M. ; Lecomte, P. ; Tarawali, S.A. ; Grace, D. - \ 2010
In: The Role of Livestock in Developing Communities: Enhancing Multifunctionality / Swanepoel, F., Stroebel, A., Moyo, S., Bloemfontein : University of the Free State and CTA - ISBN 9780868867984 - p. 51 - 76.
Livestock provide many benefits to society, but at the same time, they generate considerable pressure on land, water and biomass resources and are responsible for 18 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions. The total demand for livestock products may almost double by 2050, mostly in the developing world due to increases in population density, urbanisation and incomes. At the same time, existing trade-offs and competing demands for natural resources with other sectors will intensify, making it necessary to take a combination of measures to reduce the environmental footprint of livestock production. Measures such as sustainable intensification of crop-livestock systems, payments for ecosystem services, income diversification in pastoral systems, regulation of industrial systems and livestock-product demand management could play a significant role in ensuring sustainable livestock production, livelihoods and environmental protection. This chapter examines the main environmental interactions of livestock production and suggests ways to improve them.
Ex ante assessment of climate change adaptation strategies in resource-poor countries: study cases from East Africa
Claessens, L. ; Stoorvogel, J.J. ; Antle, J.M. ; Valdivia, R.O. ; Thornton, P.K. ; Herrero, M. - \ 2009
Modelling Livestock Component in FSSIM
Thorne, P.J. ; Hengsdijk, H. ; Janssen, S.J.C. ; Louhichi, K. ; Keulen, H. van; Thornton, P.K. - \ 2009
Wageningen : SEAMLESS (Report / SEAMLESS no. 35) - ISBN 9789085851233 - 65
rundveehouderij - schapenhouderij - geitenhouderij - rundveevoeding - schapenvoeding - geitenvoeding - energiebehoefte - eiwitbehoefte - simulatiemodellen - cattle husbandry - sheep farming - goat keeping - cattle feeding - sheep feeding - goat feeding - power requirement - protein requirement - simulation models
This document summarises the development of a ruminant livestock component for the Farm System Simulator (FSSIM). This includes treatments of energy and protein transactions in ruminant livestock that have been used as a basis for the biophysical simulations that will generate the input production parameters for FSSIM. The treatments are derived principally from the “French” feed evaluation and rationing system for protein and energy. Currently, we have constructed routines that are capable of simulating input-output relationships for energy and protein in the following representative systems; dairy cattle; suckler cows; growing and finishing cattle; sheep and goats. The calculations of energy and protein requirements for these classes of livestock are described in detail in this document
|Livestock, livelihoods and the environment: Finding the balance
Herrero, M. ; Gerber, P. ; Lecomte, P. ; Ayatunde, A.A. ; Zijpp, A.J. van der; Notenbaert, A. ; Steeg, J. van de; Thornton, P.K. - \ 2008