Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?
Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver ; Bathgate, Stephan ; Blennow, K. ; Borges, J.G. ; Bugmann, Harald ; Delzon, Sylvain ; Faias, Sonia P. ; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi ; Gardiner, Barry ; Gonzalez-Olabarria, J.R. ; Gracia, Carlos ; Guerra Hernandez, Jordi ; Kellomaki, Seppo ; Kramer, K. ; Lexer, M.J. ; Lindner, Marcus ; Maaten, Ernest van der; Maroschek, M. ; Muys, Bart ; Nicoll, B. ; Palahi, M. ; Palma, J.H.N. ; Paulo, Joana A. ; Peltola, H. ; Pukkala, T. ; Rammer, W. ; Ray, D. ; Sabaté, S. ; Schelhaas, M. ; Seidl, R. ; Temperli, Christian ; Tomé, Margarida ; Yousefpour, R. ; Zimmerman, N.E. ; Hanewinkel, Marc - \ 2017
Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017)3. - ISSN 1748-9326
Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands
Yousefpour, R. ; Didion, M.P. ; Jacobsen, J.B. ; Meilby, H. ; Hengeveld, G.M. ; Schelhaas, M. ; Thorsen, B.J. - \ 2015
Forest Policy and Economics 54 (2015). - ISSN 1389-9341 - p. 1 - 10.
management - uncertainty - future - dynamics - germany - belief - face
We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time and mostly differ from deterministic decisions ignoring any change in climate. Moreover, we find that the adaptation strategies are indispensable not only because of climate change but also because of the development of the forest biological system over time and the need to revisit decisions.