Are the planning targets of liquid biofuel development achievable in China under climate change?
Yan, Dan ; Liu, Litao ; Li, Jinkai ; Wu, Jiaqian ; Qin, Wei ; Werners, Saskia E. - \ 2021
Agricultural Systems 186 (2021). - ISSN 0308-521X
Climate change - Liquid biofuels - Marginal land - Non-grain energy crops
Liquid biofuels from non-grain energy crops on marginal land could become an important substitute of gasoline in the transport sector, and offer the possibility to reduce competition with food crops for land resources. However, the cultivation of energy crops is facing profound challenges due to changing temperature and precipitation in the future. To assess the impact of climate change on the potential of liquid biofuels on marginal land in China, this study used a geographic information system-based approach combined with multiple factor analysis to identify the spatial distribution of marginal land suitable for nine major energy crops in China. Climate scenarios were generated based on bias-corrected results of five different climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5). Results show that climate change is projected to have a substantial impact on the land availability for biofuel production in the 2050s under both RCPs. The total amount of marginal land suitable for energy crops was 170.2 million hectares for the period of 2010–2019, and would increase in the 2050s under both RCPs. The changing pattern of area are similar under both RCP 2.6 and 8.5, only the magnitude is different. All the species are projected to have a northward spread in China. The amount of marginal land suitable for all the energy crops is projected to increase in the 2050s, except for Miscanthus floridulus, and Miscanthus lutarioriparius under RCP 8.5. However, the potential productivity of the energy crops is projected to have a substantial decrease in the 2050s. The average yields of the energy crops are only about one fourth of their yields in the 2010s due to climate change. Combined with high costs of producing biofuels and numerous ecological tradeoffs, it is likely that liquid biofuels development using 1.5 and 2-generation energy crops does not have an optimistic perspective in China.
Examining the effectiveness of climate change communication with adolescents in vietnam : The role of message congruency
Ngo, Chinh C. ; Poortvliet, P.M. ; Feindt, Peter H. - \ 2020
Water 12 (2020)11. - ISSN 2073-4441 - p. 1 - 23.
Adolescents - Climate change - Construal level - Message framing - Risk communication
Climate change makes coastal communities more vulnerable to floods associated with storm surges and sea level rise, requiring both adaptation and mitigation measures. Moreover, proper understanding of flood risks and their potential impacts on climate change appears to be a communication challenge. In climate change communication, the effect of framing congruency on perception of risk, efficacy and behavioural intentions towards climate change adaptation and mitigation has received limited attention. Messages have not been congruent in framing risks associated with climate change. We define congruency as the coherent alignment of several aspects of message content. Messages are considered congruent when they provide recipients with consistent contents such as giving concrete and actionable advice, or by providing more abstract and general background information. This research focuses on climate change communication in fostering mitigation behaviours among adolescents in vulnerable locations in the global South. Based on Construal Level Theory, this paper investigates how message congruency affects the link between perceptions of climate change risk and efficacy and two predictors of behavioural change: perceived responsibility and mitigation intentions. We conducted an experiment to test the effect of congruent vs. incongruent risk communication among adolescents in highly vulnerable coastal communities in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam (N = 348). Multiple regression analysis found strong effects of congruency in message framing; when messages were congruent in the content, communicative interventions changed adolescents’ perceptions and attitudes toward climate change mitigation more consistently. This research contributes both theoretically and practically to risk communication among adolescents and toward climate change mitigation behaviour.
Disentangling the historic and future impacts of land use changes and climate variability on the hydrology of a mountain region in Brazil
Gomes, L.C. ; Bianchi, F.J.J.A. ; Cardoso, I.M. ; Schulte, R.P.O. ; Fernandes, R.B.A. ; Fernandes-Filho, E.I. - \ 2020
Journal of Hydrology (2020). - ISSN 0022-1694
Climate change - Forest expansion - Mountain area - Scenario analysis - SWAT - Water dynamics
Global changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and climate are expected to have profound impacts on water dynamics, which are key for human wellbeing. However, we still lack understanding of how changes in climate patterns and LULC are likely to interact and govern the hydrology at the watershed level in tropical regions in the future. Here we assessed the contribution of changes in weather patterns and LULC on the hydrology of a watershed in southeast of Brazil between 1990 and 2015 using the SWAT model. In addition, we explored the likely impacts of two contrasting LULC scenarios (Green Road versus Fossil Fuel) on the hydrology in 2045 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Between 1990 and 2004 and 2005–2015 the watershed witnessed an increase in precipitation and streamflow, in combination with an expansion of forest cover and coffee production. While surface runoff (+5.2 mm year−1) and water yield (+252 mm year−1) increased, soil water (−24.6 mm year−1) and evapotranspiration (−15.7 mm year−1) decreased. The analysis indicated that changes in climate patterns are the main drivers of historical water dynamics in the region. Compared with Fossil Fuel scenario, the increase in forest area in the Green Road scenario will lead to a decrease in surface runoff and consequently in water yield, favouring water infiltration and soil erosion control, and buffer against extreme precipitation events. Therefore, the socioeconomic and public policies underlying the Green Road scenario that favour the expansion of forests can direct sustainable future water management.
Ecology, growth and management of black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.), a non-native species integrated into European forests
Nicolescu, Valeriu Norocel ; Rédei, Károly ; Mason, William L. ; Vor, Torsten ; Pöetzelsberger, Elisabeth ; Bastien, Jean Charles ; Brus, Robert ; Benčať, Tibor ; Đodan, Martina ; Cvjetkovic, Branislav ; Andrašev, Siniša ; Porta, Nicola La; Lavnyy, Vasyl ; Mandžukovski, Dejan ; Petkova, Krasimira ; Roženbergar, Dušan ; Wąsik, Radosław ; Mohren, Godefridus M.J. ; Monteverdi, Maria Cristina ; Musch, Brigitte ; Klisz, Marcin ; Perić, Sanja ; Keça, Ljiljana ; Bartlett, Debbie ; Hernea, Cornelia ; Pástor, Michal - \ 2020
Journal of Forestry Research 31 (2020). - ISSN 1007-662X - p. 1081 - 1101.
Black locust - Climate change - Ecology - Invasiveness - Management
Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.), a species native to the eastern North America, was introduced to Europe probably in 1601 and currently extends over 2.3 × 106 ha. It has become naturalized in all sub-Mediterranean and temperate regions rivaling Populus spp. as the second most planted broadleaved tree species worldwide after Eucalyptus spp. This wide-spreading planting is because black locust is an important multipurpose species, producing wood, fodder, and a source of honey as well as bio-oil and biomass. It is also important for carbon sequestration, soil stabilization and re-vegetation of landfills, mining areas and wastelands, in biotherapy and landscaping. In Europe, black locust is drought tolerant so grows in areas with annual precipitation as low as 500–550 mm. It tolerates dry, nutrient poor soils but grows best on deep, nutrient-rich, well-drained soils. It is a fast-growing tree and the height, diameter and volume growth peak before the age of 20. It mostly regenerates vegetatively by root suckers under a simple coppice system, which is considered the most cost-effective management system. It also regenerates, but less frequently, by stool sprouts. Its early silviculture in production forests includes release cutting to promote root suckers rather than stool shoots, and cleaning-respacing to remove low-quality stems, reduce the number of shoots per stool, and adjust spacing between root suckers. In addition, early, moderate and frequent thinning as well as limited pruning are carried out focusing on crop trees. The species is regarded as invasive in several European countries and its range here is expected to expand under predicted climate changes.
Soil C, N and P cycling enzyme responses to nutrient limitation under elevated CO2
Keane, Ben ; Hoosbeek, Marcel R. ; Taylor, Christopher R. ; Miglietta, Franco ; Phoenix, Gareth K. ; Hartley, Iain P. - \ 2020
Biogeochemistry (2020). - ISSN 0168-2563
Climate change - eCO - Enzyme stoichiometry - Nitrogen - Phosphorus - Soil microbe
Abstract: Elevated CO2 (eCO2) can stimulate plant productivity and increase carbon (C) input to soils, but nutrient limitation restricts productivity. Despite phosphorus (P)-limited ecosystems increasing globally, it is unknown how nutrient cycling, particularly soil microbial extra cellular enzyme activity (EEA), will respond to eCO2 in such ecosystems. Long-term nutrient manipulation plots from adjacent P-limited acidic and limestone grasslands were exposed to eCO2 (600 ppm) provided by a mini-Free Air CO2 Enrichment system. P-limitation was alleviated (35 kg-P ha−1 y−1 (P35)), exacerbated (35 kg-N ha−1 y−1 (N35), 140 kg-N ha−1 y−1 (N140)), or maintained (control (P0N0)) for > 20 years. We measured EEAs of C-, N- and P-cycling enzymes (1,4-β-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, N-acetyl β-D-glucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase, and acid phosphatase) and compared C:N:P cycling enzyme ratios using a vector analysis. Potential acid phosphatase activity doubled under N additions relative to P0N0 and P35 treatments. Vector analysis revealed reduced C-cycling investment and increased P-cycling investment under eCO2. Vector angle significantly increased with P-limitation (P35 < P0N0 < N35 < N140) indicating relatively greater investment in P-cycling enzymes. The limestone grassland was more C limited than the acidic grassland, characterised by increased vector length, C:N and C:P enzyme ratios. The absence of interactions between grassland type and eCO2 or nutrient treatment for all enzyme indicators signaled consistent responses to changing P-limitation and eCO2 in both grasslands. Our findings suggest that eCO2 reduces C limitation, allowing increased investment in P- and N-cycle enzymes with implications for rates of nutrient cycling, potentially alleviating nutrient limitation of ecosystem productivity under eCO2. Graphic abstract: [InlineMediaObject not available: see fulltext.]
The water-saving strategies assessment (Wssa) framework : An application for the urmia lake restoration program
Shadkam, Somayeh ; Oel, Pieter van; Kabat, Pavel ; Roozbahani, Amin ; Ludwig, Fulco - \ 2020
Water 12 (2020)10. - ISSN 2073-4441
Climate change - Rebound effect - Urmia Lake - Water governance - Water resources management - Water-saving strategies assessment framework
Increases in water demand often result in unsustainable water use, leaving insufficient amounts of water for the environment. Therefore, water-saving strategies have been introduced to the environmental policy agenda in many (semi)-arid regions. As many such interventions failed to reach their objectives, a comprehensive tool is needed to assess them. We introduced a constructive framework to assess the proposed strategies by estimating five key components of the water balance in an area: (1) Demand; (2) Availability; (3) Withdrawal; (4) Depletion and (5) Outflow. The framework was applied to assess the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP) which aimed to increase the basin outflow to the lake to reach 3.1 × 109 m3 yr−1. Results suggested that ULRP could help to increase the Outflow by up to 57%. However, successful implementation of the ULRP was foreseen to be impeded because of three main reasons: (i) decreasing return flows; (ii) increased Depletion; (iii) the impact of climate change. Decreasing return flows and increasing Depletion were expected due to the introduction of technologies that increase irrigation efficiency, while climate change could decrease future water availability by an estimated 3–15%. We suggest that to reach the intervention target, strategies need to focus on reducing water depletion rather than water withdrawals. The framework can be used to comprehensively assess water-saving strategies, particularly in water-stressed basins.
Climate change risk perceptions of audiences in the climate change blogosphere
Eck, Christel W. van; Mulder, Bob C. ; Linden, Sander van der - \ 2020
Sustainability 12 (2020)19. - ISSN 2071-1050 - p. 1 - 17.
Blogs - CCRPM - Climate change - Risk perception
The Climate Change Risk Perception Model (CCRPM, Van der Linden, 2015) has been used to characterize public risk perceptions; however, little is known about the model’s explanatory power in other (online) contexts. In this study, we extend the model and investigate the risk perceptions of a unique audience: The polarized climate change blogosphere. In total, our model explained 84% of the variance in risk perceptions by integrating socio-demographic characteristics, cognitive factors, experiential processes, socio-cultural influences, and an additional dimension: Trust in scientists and blogs. Although trust and the scientific consensus are useful additions to the model, affect remains the most important predictor of climate change risk perceptions. Surprisingly, the relative importance of social norms and value orientations is minimal. Implications for risk and science communication are discussed.
Policy implementation styles and local governments : the case of climate change adaptation
Lesnikowski, Alexandra ; Biesbroek, Robbert ; Ford, James D. ; Berrang-Ford, Lea - \ 2020
Environmental Politics (2020). - ISSN 0964-4016
adaptation - Climate change - local government - policy formulation - policy implementation - policy instrument
Adaptation to impacts of climate change is a key pillar of climate change policy, and local governments have historically played a major role in the design and implementation of these policies. An array of political, economic, institutional, social, and individual factors influence adaptation policy instrument choice. At the local government level, these choices also reflect inter-governmental dynamics that can constrain or support local efforts. We analyze eight hypothesized drivers of local adaptation policy instrument choice using fractional regression analysis and multilevel modelling. Local governments are pursuing diverse adaptation policy implementation styles that are associated with different levels of internal capacity, local political economies and problem perception. Dependence on national governments, the presence or absence of national adaptation mandates, national decision-making traditions, and national adaptation policy approaches may also influence local policy instrument choices.
Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation options for farm performance using bio-economic models in Southwestern France
Schuler, Johannes ; Toorop, Roos Adelhart ; Willaume, Magali ; Vermue, Anthony ; Schläfke, Nicole ; Uthes, Sandra ; Zander, Peter ; Rossing, Walter - \ 2020
Sustainability 12 (2020)18. - ISSN 2071-1050
Adaptation - Bio-economic models - Climate change - Irrigation - Model comparison - Southern France
Regional impact studies are needed to explore possible adaptation options to climate change. We estimated impacts and adaptation options for future scenarios that feature different assumptions regarding climate, cropping pattern and access to irrigation with two bio-economic farm models. Farm profit, soil organic matter balance and labor input are used as indicators of farm performance. The difference between the baseline and the alternative configurations computed by models is referred as adaptation potential, indicative of the adaptation options including the corresponding changes in cropping patterns. Our results show that as long as there is sufficient access to irrigation water, there is little incentive to change current practices, as farming is at the economic optimum, has a positive soil organic matter balance and labor requirements can be met. Conversely, if irrigation is no longer possible, drastic impacts occur, causing a need to sustainably adjust on-going farm practices. Adaptation through changed crop selection reduced losses to some extent. We conclude that the use of bio-economic models can assist in evaluating the qualitative findings of participatory studies by quantitatively assessing possible climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Strong impacts of climate change, however, cannot be offset by changes in cropping patterns and need further adaptation measures.
Assessing long-term spatial movement of wheat area across China
Fan, Lingling ; Chen, Shi ; Liang, Shefang ; Sun, Xiao ; Chen, Hao ; You, Liangzhi ; Wu, Wenbin ; Sun, Jing ; Yang, Peng - \ 2020
Agricultural Systems 185 (2020). - ISSN 0308-521X
China - Climate change - Driving factors - Geographical centroid - Wheat area
In the context of climate change, assessing spatiotemporal dynamics of crop production is becoming an important component of food security, which is one of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Wheat is a major staple food that is grown worldwide. Although many studies have analyzed wheat production, spatial analyses, particularly geographical centroid (GC) studies, are rare. The GC studies are of important scientific value and policy implications. This study aims to estimate the GC movement of wheat area (including winter and spring wheat) from 1949 to 2014 in China (the largest wheat-producing country). A centroid model was adopted to measure GC movements, and then a regression analysis was conducted to understand the driving factors of wheat area changes (as area changes lead to GC movement). Then multiple scenario analyses were built to study GC movement driven by climatic factors alone. The net GC movements of winter and spring wheat area were estimated at 31 km northwestward and 692 km southwestward from 1949 to 2014, with both displaying a turning point in their movement routes around 1970s (the GC of winter wheat area moved 89 km before 1970s and 66 km after 1970s; while the GC of spring wheat area moved 89 km before 1970s and 799 km after 1970s); furthermore, the major driving factor of winter wheat GC movement is a socioeconomic factor (i.e., expanded irrigation area) while that of spring wheat GC movement is a climatic factor (i.e., temperature) among the factors considered in this study. Our “climate only” scenarios highlighted that the impact of temperature on GC movement of winter wheat is more significant than that of precipitation. We assessed the spatiotemporal movement of wheat area to better understand its production dynamics in response to climate change and human activities. This study provides scientific evidence for policymakers and related stakeholders in China and other countries regarding food production patterns and planting decisions.
Prediction of plant species occurrence as affected by nitrogen deposition and climate change on a European scale
Wamelink, G.W.W. ; Mol-Dijkstra, J.P. ; Reinds, G.J. ; Voogd, J.C. ; Bonten, L.T.C. ; Posch, M. ; Hennekens, S.M. ; Vries, W. de - \ 2020
Environmental Pollution 266 (2020). - ISSN 0269-7491
Biodiversity - Climate change - EUNIS - Nitrogen deposition - Precipitation - Soil
Plant species occurrence in Europe is affected by changes in nitrogen deposition and climate. Insight into potential future effects of those changes can be derived by a model approach based on field-based empirical evidence on a continental scale. In this paper, we present a newly developed empirical model PROPS, predicting the occurrence probabilities of plant species in response to a combination of climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and soil properties. Parameters included were temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, soil pH and soil C/N ratio. The PROPS model was fitted to plant species occurrence data of about 800,000 European relevés with estimated values for pH and soil C/N ratio and interpolated climate and modelled N deposition data obtained from the Ensemble meteo data set and EMEP model results, respectively. The model was validated on an independent data set. The test of ten species against field data gave an average Pearson's r-value of 0.79. PROPS was applied to a grassland and a heathland site to evaluate the effect of scenarios for nitrogen deposition and climate change on the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), being the average of the relative probabilities, compared to the maximum probability, of all target species in a habitat. Results for the period 1930–2050 showed that an initial increase and later decrease in nitrogen deposition led to a pronounced decrease in HSI, and with dropping nitrogen deposition to an increase of the HSI. The effect of climate change appeared to be limited, resulting in a slight increase in HSI.
Urban climate awareness and urgency to adapt : An international overview
Lenzholzer, Sanda ; Carsjens, Gerrit-Jan ; Brown, Robert D. ; Tavares, Silvia ; Vanos, Jennifer ; Kim, You Joung ; Lee, Kanghyun - \ 2020
Urban Climate 33 (2020). - ISSN 2212-0955
Awareness - Climate change - International - Societal actors - Urban heat island - Urban wind
Urban climate manifests itself through thermal and wind environments specific to cities and can cause wind danger or overheating. Cities can benefit from preventing these effects through adaptation measures. However, before any action can be taken in improving these urban climate conditions, an awareness of the problems is needed. Numerous studies show that there is awareness of urban climate extremes as a problem, yet that knowledge lacks amongst different actors in society, and may further differ between countries. Therefore, we conducted an international study on the awareness levels regarding urban climate phenomena and the sense of urgency to act within four groups: citizens, local politicians, urban planners and designers, and urban climate experts. Semi-structured interviews with experts in ten countries worldwide were conducted. Results indicate that the urgency to adapt to climate change was acknowledged rather equally for the four groups of actors. In contrast, awareness of urban climate phenomena (urban heat islands and urban wind patterns) amongst citizens and politicians is rather low in most countries. Amongst urban planners and designers and the urban climate experts we observed a generally high awareness regarding urban climate phenomena. Raising awareness requires tailor-made strategies for specific needs of the different actor groups.
Communicating climate change risk : A content analysis of ipcc's summary for policymakers
Poortvliet, Marijn ; Niles, Meredith T. ; Veraart, Jeroen A. ; Werners, Saskia E. ; Korporaal, Fiona C. ; Mulder, Bob C. - \ 2020
Sustainability 12 (2020)12. - ISSN 2071-1050
Climate change - Content analysis - Efficacy - Global warming - Psychological distance - Risk communication - Threat appraisal
This study investigated the effectiveness of climate change risk communication in terms of its theoretical potential to stimulate recipients' awareness and behavioral change. We selected the summary for policy makers (SPM) of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in order to conduct a content analysis; the extended parallel process model and construal level theory served as conceptual lenses to perform the analysis. Specifically, we evaluated to what extent the SPM included informational elements of threat, efficacy and psychological distance related to climate change. The results showed that threat information was prominently present, but efficacy information was less frequently included, and when it was, more often in the latter parts of the SPM. With respect to construal level it was found that in the IPCC report concrete representations were used only sparingly. Theoretical relevance and implications for climate change risk communication with key audiences are discussed.
Future projections of flood dynamics in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta
Triet, Nguyen Van Khanh ; Dung, Nguyen Viet ; Hoang, Long Phi ; Duy, Nguyen Le ; Tran, Dung Duc ; Anh, Tran Tuan ; Kummu, Matti ; Merz, Bruno ; Apel, Heiko - \ 2020
Science of the Total Environment 742 (2020). - ISSN 0048-9697
Climate change - Hydrodynamic modelling - Hydropower - Land subsidence - Sea-level rise
The annual flood pulse of the Mekong River is crucial to sustain agriculture production, nutrition, and the livelihood of millions of people living in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta (VMD). However, climate change impacts on precipitation, temperature and sea-level combined with land subsidence, upstream hydropower development, and water infrastructures (i.e. high-dykes construction) are altering the hydrological regime of the VMD. This study investigates future changes in flood hazard and agricultural production caused by these different scales of human-induced stresses. A quasi- two-dimensional (quasi-2D) hydrodynamic model was used to simulate eight scenarios representing the individual and compound impacts of these drivers for a baseline (1971–2000) and future (2036–2065) period. The scenarios map the most likely future pathway of climate change (RCP 4.5) combined with the best available Mekong upstream hydropower development, and land subsidence scenarios as well as the current delta development plan. We found that sea-level rise and land subsidence would cause the highest changes in flood hazard and damage to rice crop, followed by hydropower and climate change impacts. Expansion of high-dyke areas in two northernmost delta provinces (An Giang and Dong Thap) would have the smallest impact. The combination of all modelled drivers is projected to increase delta inundation extent by 20%, accompanied with prolonging submergence of 1–2 months, and 2–3 times increase in annual flood damage to rice crops in the flood-prone areas of the VMD. These findings of likely increasing risk of tidal induced flood hazard and damage call for well-planned adaptation and mitigation measures, both structural and non-structural.
Forest Management Approaches for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation : a Comparison Between Germany and Japan
Yousefpour, Rasoul ; Nakamura, N. ; Matsumura, N. - \ 2020
Journal of Sustainable Forestry 39 (2020)6. - ISSN 1054-9811 - p. 635 - 653.
Climate change - sustainable forest management - synergy - systematic review
Forest management affects carbon sequestration (mitigation) and resilience of forest ecosystems (adaptation) under climate change. Therefore, the efforts to integrate these two approaches have been made by the political arrangements to seek the synergy effects and deal with trade-offs. To study the state of the art linkages and forest policies to realize both adaptation and mitigation, we systematically review the literature highlighting the topic (136 publications) and outline two different approaches from Germany and Japan as countries with substantial forest resources and high influences on international forest policies and wood trade. We identify three linkages: (1) an ecosystem (based) approach assuming that a resilient ecosystem (adaptation), has high potential as a carbon sink (mitigation), (2) a sustainable forest management (SFM) aiming for enhancing forests’ resilience and carbon sink potential simultaneously, and (3) a cross-sectoral approach generating synergies among multiple sectors of agriculture, forestry, urban design, and nature conservation. We find that a significant objective is still SFM for sustaining the forest area andwood production, where SFM examples in Germany and Japan exemplify contributions to carbon sinks and ongoing disaster risk management, respectively. Overall, the current differentiated objectives of SFM do not underpin the twofold approach and their synergy effects.
Disentangling drivers of soil microbial potential enzyme activity across rain regimes : An approach based on the functional trait framework
Piton, Gabin ; Foulquier, Arnaud ; Martínez-García, Laura B. ; Legay, Nicolas ; Hedlund, Katarina ; Martins da Silva, Pedro ; Nascimento, Eduardo ; Reis, Filipa ; Sousa, José Paulo ; Deyn, Gerlinde B. De; Clement, Jean Christophe - \ 2020
Soil Biology and Biochemistry 148 (2020). - ISSN 0038-0717
Bacteria - Climate change - Enzymatic stoichiometry - Fungi - PLFA - Structural equation model
The functional trait framework provides a powerful corpus of integrated concepts and theories to assess how environmental factors influence ecosystem functioning through community assembly. While common in plant ecology, this approach is under-used in microbial ecology. After an introduction of this framework in the context of microbial ecology and enzymology, we propose an approach 1) to elucidate new links between soil microbial community composition and microbial traits; and 2) to disentangle mechanisms underlying “total” potential enzyme activity in soil (sum of 7 hydrolase potential activities). We address these objectives using a terrestrial grassland ecosystem model experiment with intact soil monoliths from three European countries (Switzerland, France and Portugal) and two management types (Conventional-intensive and Ecological-intensive), subjected to 4 rain regimes (Dry, Wet, Intermittent and Normal) under controlled conditions in a common climate chamber. We found tight associations between proxies of microbial ecoenzymatic community-weighted mean traits (enzymatic stoichiometry and biomass-specific activity) and community composition, bringing new information on resource acquisition strategy associated with fungi, Gram positive and Gram negative bacteria. We demonstrate that microbial biomass explained most of the total enzyme activity before altered rain regimes, whereas adjustments in biomass-specific activity (enzyme activity per unit of microbial biomass) explained most variation under altered rain regime scenarios. Furthermore, structural equation models revealed that the variation of community composition was the main driver of the variation in biomass-specific enzyme activity prior to rain perturbation, whereas physiological acclimation or evolutionary adaptation became an important driver only under altered rain regimes. This study presents a promising trait-based approach to investigate soil microbial community response to environmental changes and potential consequences for ecosystem functioning. We argue that the functional trait framework should be further implemented in microbial ecology to guide experimental and analytical design.
The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in western Norway
Schaller, Nathalie ; Sillmann, Jana ; Müller, Malte ; Haarsma, Reindert ; Hazeleger, Wilco ; Hegdahl, Trine Jahr ; Kelder, Timo ; Oord, Gijs van den; Weerts, Albrecht ; Whan, Kirien - \ 2020
Weather and Climate Extremes 29 (2020). - ISSN 2212-0947
AROME - Atmospheric river - Climate change - Dynamical downscaling - EC-Earth - Extreme precipitation - Flood - Storyline approach - Western Norway
We apply a physical climate storyline approach to an autumn flood event in the West Coast of Norway caused by an atmospheric river to demonstrate the value and challenges of higher spatial and temporal resolution in simulating flood impacts. We use a modelling chain whose outputs are familiar and used operationally, for example to issue flood warnings. With two different versions of a hydrological model, we show that (1) the higher spatial resolution between the global and regional climate model is necessary to realistically simulate the high spatial variability of precipitation in this mountainous region and (2) only with hourly data are we able to capture the fast flood-generating processes leading to the peak streamflow. The higher resolution regional atmospheric model captures the fact that with the passage of an atmospheric river, some valleys receive high amounts of precipitation and others not, while the coarser resolution global model shows uniform precipitation in the whole region. Translating the event into the future leads to similar results: while in some catchments, a future flood might be much larger than a present one, in others no event occurs as the atmospheric river simply does not hit that catchment. The use of an operational flood warning system for future events is expected to facilitate stakeholder engagement.
Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia
Zohner, Constantin M. ; Mo, Lidong ; Renner, Susanne S. ; Svenning, Jens Christian ; Vitasse, Yann ; Benito, Blas M. ; Ordonez, Alejandro ; Baumgarten, Frederik ; Bastin, Jean François ; Sebald, Veronica ; Reich, Peter B. ; Liang, Jingjing ; Nabuurs, Gert Jan ; De-Migueln, Sergio ; Alberti, Giorgio ; Antón-Fernández, Clara ; Balazy, Radomir ; Brändli, Urs Beat ; Chen, Han Y.H. ; Chisholm, Chelsea ; Cienciala, Emil ; Dayanandan, Selvadurai ; Fayle, Tom M. ; Frizzera, Lorenzo ; Gianelle, Damiano ; Jagodzinski, Andrzej M. ; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan ; Jucker, Tommaso ; Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian ; Khan, Mohammed Latif ; Kim, Hyun Seok ; Korjus, Henn ; Johannsen, Vivian Kvist ; Laarmann, Diana ; Langn, Mait ; Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Tomasz ; Niklaus, Pascal A. ; Paquette, Alain ; Pretzsch, Hans ; Saikia, Purabi ; Schall, Peter ; Seben, Vladimír ; Svoboda, Miroslav ; Tikhonova, Elena ; Viana, Helder ; Zhang, Chunyu ; Zhao, Xiuhai ; Crowther, Thomas W. - \ 2020
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117 (2020)22. - ISSN 0027-8424
Climate change - Freezing damage - Late frost - Phenology - Spring leaf-out
Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.
Deciphering interwoven drivers of environment-related migration – A multisite case study from the Ethiopian highlands
Groth, Juliane ; Ide, Tobias ; Sakdapolrak, Patrick ; Kassa, Endeshaw ; Hermans, Kathleen - \ 2020
Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 63 (2020). - ISSN 0959-3780
Adaptation - Africa - Climate change - Environment-related migration - Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA)
Global environmental change is increasing livelihood pressure for many communities, and agricultural households in the Global South are particularly vulnerable. Extant research has debated whether and to what degree this amplifies migration flows while also acknowledging that migration can be an adaptive strategy. However, little is known about which contextual factors are most relevant and how they interact in shaping environment-related migration. We shed light on this issue by conducting an in-depth qualitative, yet multisite and medium-N study of farming households in the northern Ethiopian highlands. We utilized qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) – a novel approach in the research field – to overcome the existing methodological challenges. We found that the migration experience within the household in combination with either the usage of the longer summer rainy season (Kiremt) or non-farm in situ diversification are sufficient causes for migration. Non-farm income activities and favorable environmental conditions during the Kiremt season increases economic household resources and as such migration ability. However, only together with migrant networks, which can reduce the costs and risks of migration and shape migration aspirations, can these drivers explain why households engage in migration. Our findings reveal that capabilities and networks, rather than commonly cited push factors, are far more important drivers of environment-related migration at the household level. Additionally, we illustrate that while migration is an important adaptation strategy, it cannot be adopted equally among households and as a result often reinforces existing inequalities.
Will dairy cattle production in West Africa be challenged by heat stress in the future?
Rahimi, Jaber ; Mutua, John Yumbya ; Notenbaert, An M.O. ; Dieng, Diarra ; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus - \ 2020
Climatic Change 161 (2020). - ISSN 0165-0009 - p. 665 - 685.
Climate change - Dairy cattle - THI - West Africa
This study focuses on heat stress conditions for dairy cattle production in West Africa under current and future climatic conditions. After testing the accuracy of the dynamically downscaled climate datasets for simulating the historical daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and relative humidity (RH) in West Africa for 50 meteorological stations, we used the dataset for calculating the temperature-humidity index (THI), i.e., an index indicating heat stress for dairy cattle on a daily scale. Calculations were made for the historical period (1981–2010) using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, and for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) using climate predictions of the GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Here, we show that during the period from 1981 to 2010 for > 1/5 of the region of West Africa, the frequency of severe/danger heat events per year, i.e., events that result in significant decreases in productive and reproductive performances, increased from 11 to 29–38 days (significant at 95% confidence level). Most obvious changes were observed for the eastern and southeastern parts. Under future climate conditions periods with severe/danger heat stress events will increase further as compared with the historical period by 5–22% depending on the GCM used. Moreover, the average length of periods with severe/danger heat stress is expected to increase from ~ 3 days in the historical period to ~ 4–7 days by 2021–2050 and even to up to 10 days by 2071–2100. Based on the average results of three GCMs, by 2071–2100, around 22% of dairy cattle population currently living in this area is expected to experience around 70 days more of severe/danger heat stress (compare with the historical period), especially in the southern half of West Africa. The result is alarming, as it shows that dairy production systems in West Africa are jeopardized at large scale by climate change and that depending on the GCM used, milk production might decrease by 200–400 kg/year by 2071–2100 in around 1, 7, or 11%. Our study calls for the development of improved dairy cattle production systems with higher adaptive capacity in order to deal with expected future heat stress conditions.