- WASS (3)
- WIMEK (3)
- Alterra - Climate change and adaptive land and water management (1)
- Alterra - Soil, water and land use (1)
- Climate Change (1)
- Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management (1)
- Earth System Science (1)
- Environmental Economics and Natural Resources (1)
- Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group (1)
- Landscape Architecture (1)
- Landscape Architecture and Spatial Planning (1)
- Public Administration and Policy (1)
- Sociology of Development and Change (1)
- Soil, Water and Land Dynamics (1)
- Soil, Water and Land Use (1)
- Strategic Communication (1)
- Petra Bergsma (1)
- Wouter Botzen (1)
- Adri Brink van den (1)
- Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts (1)
- Saskia E. Werners (1)
- S.G.M. Gabbert (1)
- E.C. Ierland van (1)
- Paul Kirshen (1)
- Martin Knotters (1)
- Nora Kooijmans (1)
- T.D. Pol van der (1)
- P.M. Poortvliet (1)
- Dik Roth (1)
- Joël Verstoep (1)
- Martijn Vink (1)
- Jeroen Warner (1)
- Jiska Wijk van (1)
- Madelinde Winnubst (1)
- Mark Zandvoort (1)
On the communication of statistical information about uncertainty in flood risk management
Poortvliet, P.M. ; Knotters, Martin ; Bergsma, Petra ; Verstoep, Joël ; Wijk, Jiska van - \ 2019
Safety Science 118 (2019). - ISSN 0925-7535 - p. 194 - 204.
Decision analysis - Flood risk management - Risk communication - Uncertainty
Uncertainty analysis is not typically performed in hydrological and hydraulic modelling. This is problematic because this may lead to inefficient decision making in water management. We therefore explored the role of statistical knowledge on uncertainty in decision-making processes in long term flood risk management within the context of regional water boards in the Netherlands. Research questions were: (1) in which parts of flood risk management statistical information about uncertainty is presented to professionals of district water boards, and in which forms?; (2) how is this information interpreted and used by these professionals, and how does this influence decision-making processes in district water boards?; and (3) how can communication about statistically quantified uncertainty be improved? To answer these questions we conducted interviews and surveys among professionals and board members of Dutch district water boards. Results suggest that statistical information on uncertainty is hard to interpret by professionals. The amount of statistical information on uncertainty strongly reduces during the decision making process, during which the information transforms from quantitative to qualitative. As a result the statistical information on uncertainty is not utilized to solve flood risk management decision problems. These decision problems are not formulated within statistical frameworks for decision making, and statistical information on uncertainty is not collected and presented with the purpose to be input of such frameworks. Practical recommendations for long term flood risk management are discussed.
Designing with pathways : A spatial design approach for adaptive and sustainable landscapes
Zandvoort, Mark ; Kooijmans, Nora ; Kirshen, Paul ; Brink, Adri van den - \ 2019
Sustainability 11 (2019)3. - ISSN 2071-1050
Adaptiveness - Climate adaptation - Decision pathways - Flood risk management - Landscape architecture - Spatial design - Uncertainty - Visualization
Despite rising attention to pathways thinking in multiple domains such as climate adaptation, energy supply planning, and flood risk management, their spatial translation is so far understudied. We set out to study how spatial design based on pathways thinking can help develop more adaptive and sustainable landscapes. Using landscape analysis, field research, and research-through-designing in a case study on climate resilience in Boston (USA), we argue for better understanding of the spatial and design consequences of pathways in general. Our results indicate that pathways can be spatially translated, demanding landscape-informed choices when sequencing different policy actions. We found that spatial designing makes the landscape consequences of pathways transparent and enables policy-makers to replace the input of policy actions with spatial interventions, select pathways according to different underlying design strategies, use the mapped pathways to initiate an iterative research-through-designing process to test and inform different designs, and spatially visualize the pathways and possible sequences of actions. We conclude that policy-makers should be cognizant about the spatial implications of pathways and offer directions to enrich applications of pathways thinking for achieving adaptive and sustainable landscapes.
Watered-down politics? Inclusive water governance in the Netherlands
Roth, Dik ; Vink, Martijn ; Warner, Jeroen ; Winnubst, Madelinde - \ 2017
Ocean & Coastal Management 150 (2017). - ISSN 0964-5691 - p. 51 - 61.
Flood risk management - Inclusion - Participation - The Netherlands - Water governance
In the past decades Dutch flood defence infrastructure has met with a growing societal awareness of landscape and cultural values, of the importance of local livelihoods, and increasingly strong claims and demands for active citizen involvement in decision-making and planning processes that change people's life-worlds. These have wrought important political and institutional changes in the flood security domain: participatory and environmental procedures are now part and parcel of flood defence decision making. This article points at the contradictions in Dutch-style inclusive decision-making. Water problems, it is assumed, are better tackled by more inclusive decision-making processes, while more integrated regional land-use planning is explored to accommodate multiple interests. Yet, greater scope for participation seems to go with a strong tendency towards depoliticization. In the process the stakes may become so fuzzy that participants risk losing interest in participating and may ‘exit’ or ‘voice’ in different fora. In some cases, participatory processes were still in train when a decision had already been taken. Echoing the concerns of Chantal Mouffe and others, we will argue that ‘the political’ may also be obscured at the peril of turning out self-defeating. This calls into question whether in the case of the Netherlands ‘inclusive governance’ is always progress. We focus on how these processes have been and are governed, what this means in terms of ‘stakeholder involvement’, and whether ‘inclusiveness’ is always the solution. We review a number of experiences in Dutch coastal, lake and river landscapes — the River Meuse, the Overdiepse polder, and the IJsselmeer — with a special focus on the ‘governance’ aspects in relation to the issue of inclusiveness in the decision-making processes involved.
Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change
Pol, T.D. van der; Ierland, E.C. van; Gabbert, S.G.M. - \ 2017
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 22 (2017)2. - ISSN 1381-2386 - p. 267 - 285.
Flood risk management - Cost-benefit analysis - Climate change - Flexibility - Learning - Robustness
Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising flood risk management strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods of hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted climate scenarios. Second, the analysis is extended by learning about climate change impacts. Learning occurs upon the probabilistic arrival of information. We distinguish between learning from scientific progress, from statistical evidence and from flood disasters. These probabilistic extensions can be used to analyse and compare the economic efficiency and flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. We offer a critical discussion of the scope of such extensions and options for increasing flexibility. We find that uncertainty reduction from scientific progress may reduce initial investments, while other types of learning may increase initial investments. This requires analysing effects of different types of learning. We also find that probabilistic information about climate change impacts and learning is imprecise. We conclude that risk-based CBA with learning improves the flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. However, CBA provides subjective estimates of expected outcomes and reflects different decision-maker preferences than those captured in robustness analyses. We therefore advocate robustness analysis in addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit analysis to support local investment decisions on flood risk reduction and global strategies on allocation of adaptation funds for flood risk management.
Portfolios of adaptation investments in water management
Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H. ; Botzen, Wouter ; Werners, Saskia E. - \ 2015
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 20 (2015)8. - ISSN 1381-2386 - p. 1247 - 1265.
Adaptation - Decision making under risk - Flood risk management - Modern portfolio theory - Uncertainty
This study explores how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can guide investment decisions in integrated water resources management (IWRM) and climate change adaptation under uncertainty. The objectives of the paper are to: (i) explain the concept of diversification to reduce risk, as formulated in MPT; (ii) discuss the conditions for applying MPT to IWRM, and provide examples of these; and (iii) analyze the opportunities and limitations of applying MPT to the design of IWRM and adaptation policies. It is shown that MPT can be applied when a case meets four conditions: (1) there is more than one possible investment at a given time; (2) these investments are subject to risk; (3) there is information about the historical and/or expected return of these investments; and (4) the same conditions do not affect all investments equally, meaning that their returns are imperfectly correlated. Analysis of a case study Noorderkwartier in the Netherlands concludes that MPT can contribute to designing portfolios of combinations of investments in flood risk management—technical measures, spatial planning and insurance—which are robust to uncertainty in long-term projections such as present in climate change scenarios.