Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    Neonicotinoids in global agriculture: evidence for a new pesticide treadmill?
    Bakker, L. ; Werf, W. van der; Tittonell, P.A. ; Wyckhuys, Kris A.G. ; Bianchi, F.J.J.A. - \ 2020
    Ecology and Society 25 (2020)3. - ISSN 1708-3087
    agrochemical pollution - Biodiversity loss - farmer decision making - Global change - insecticide dependency - Lock-in - neonicotinoids - pest management - pesticide treadmill - technological change
    Overreliance on synthetic insecticides in global agriculture is the outcome of a “pesticide treadmill,” in which insecticide-induced pest resistance development and the depletion of beneficial insect populations aggravate farmers’ pesticide dependencies. Examples of the pesticide treadmill have been witnessed repeatedly over the past seven decades, prompting the question whether the rapid uptake and usage patterns of neonicotinoid insecticides and their associated environmental impact are in accordance with this recurrent phenomenon. We hypothesize a conceptual framework in which treadmills are enforced by enabling or disabling drivers within four domains: pest management decisions at the farm level, characteristics of farming landscapes, science and technology, and societal demands. These drivers then tend to create a self-enforcing pesticide “lock-in.” We then analyze several post-1950s historical case studies with reference to this framework, e.g., those involving sprays of the highly hazardous DDT and methyl-parathion, in which the pesticide treadmill was initiated, sustained, and broken, and compare this with current patterns in neonicotinoid use. Historical case studies further illustrate how treadmills occur in three phases in which (i) a limited number of insecticides are routinely used, (ii) resistance development of pests results in the increased crop injury, prompting increased frequency of applications with a wider range of products, (iii) breaking out of the pesticide “lock-in” by policy change and adoption of alternative technologies that lowered chemical inputs and improved agro-ecosystem functioning. The analysis shows similarities as well as differences between neonicotinoid usage patterns and historic pesticide treadmills, and provides guidance on how to effectively avoid or dismantle pesticide treadmills in global agriculture.
    Warming and CO2 effects under oligotrophication on temperate phytoplankton communities
    Cabrerizo, Marco J. ; Álvarez-Manzaneda, Inmaculada M. ; León-Palmero, Elizabeth ; Guerrero-Jiménez, Gerardo ; Senerpont Domis, Lisette N. de; Teurlincx, Sven ; González-Olalla, Juan M. - \ 2020
    Water Research 173 (2020). - ISSN 0043-1354
    Cyanobacteria - Eukaryotes - Global change - Photosynthesis - Resource use efficiency - Shallow lakes

    Eutrophication, global warming, and rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are the three most prevalent pressures impacting the biosphere. Despite their individual effects are well-known, it remains untested how oligotrophication (i.e. nutrients reduction) can alter the planktonic community responses to warming and elevated CO2 levels. Here, we performed an indoor mesocosm experiment to investigate the warming × CO2 interaction under a nutrient reduction scenario (40%) mediated by an in-lake management strategy (i.e. addition of a commercial solid-phase phosphorus sorbent -Phoslock®) on a natural freshwater plankton community. Biomass production increased under warming × CO2 relative to present-day conditions; however, a Phoslock®-mediated oligotrophication reduced such values by 30–70%. Conversely, the warming × CO2 × oligotrophication interaction stimulated the photosynthesis by 20% compared to ambient nutrient conditions, and matched with higher resource use efficiency (RUE) and nutrient demand. Surprisingly, at a group level, we found that the multi-stressors scenario increased the photosynthesis in eukaryotes by 25%, but greatly impaired in cyanobacteria (ca. −25%). This higher cyanobacterial sensitivity was coupled with a reduced light harvesting efficiency and compensation point. Since Phoslock®-induced oligotrophication unmasked a strong negative warming × CO2 effect on cyanobacteria, it becomes crucial to understand how the interplay between climate change and nutrient abatement actions may alter the, ecosystems functioning. With an integrative understanding of these processes, policy makers will design more appropriate management strategies to improve the ecological status of aquatic ecosystems without compromising their ecological attributes and functioning.

    The institutionalization of nature-based solutions-a discourse analysis of emergent literature
    Mendes, Rúben ; Fidélis, Teresa ; Roebeling, Peter ; Teles, Filipe - \ 2020
    Resources 9 (2020)1. - ISSN 2079-9276
    Adaptation - Discourse - Global change - Institutional setting - Institutionalization - Nature-based solutions - Public policies - Spatial planning

    The European Union quickly incorporated the concept of nature based-solutions (NBS), becoming a key promotor. This was achieved through financial support for both academic research and city implementations. Still, the processes of institutionalization are yet to be fully explored. This study aims at assessing how the scientific literature regarding NBS is addressing institutional aspects and how it is constructing the NBS narrative. This research is divided into two stages. First, it undertakes a quantitative analysis of the discourse, considering a set of preselected search terms organized into five categories: Actor, institutional, planning, policy, and regulation. Second, it adopts a qualitative analysis considering both a group of the most cited articles and of articles highlighted in the previous stage. The results indicate that the NBS concept is still shadowed by other environmental concepts such as ecosystem services. Despite being an issue promoted at the European level, the results of this exercise express the lack of concrete planning and policy recommendations, reflected by the absence of terms such as "planning objectives". This pattern occurs in all other major categories, being the institutional category the least mentioned of all five categories. The results highlight the need to address both policies and planning recommendations more concretely, studying the institutional arrangements able to promote NBS.

    Soil erosion as a resilience drain in disturbed tropical forests
    Flores, Bernardo M. ; Staal, Arie ; Jakovac, Catarina C. ; Hirota, Marina ; Holmgren, Milena ; Oliveira, Rafael S. - \ 2020
    Plant and Soil 450 (2020). - ISSN 0032-079X - p. 11 - 25.
    Dynamics - Ecosystem services - Feedback - Forest restoration - Global change - Secondary forests

    Background: Tropical forests are threatened by intensifying natural and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. Disturbances reduce tree cover and leave the organic topsoil vulnerable to erosion processes, but when resources are still abundant forests usually recover. Scope: Across the tropics, variation in rainfall erosivity – a measure of potential soil exposure to water erosion – indicates that soils in the wetter regions would experience high erosion rates if they were not protected by tree cover. However, twenty-first-century global land cover data reveal that in wet South America tropical tree cover is decreasing and bare soil area is increasing. Here we address the role of soil erosion in a positive feedback mechanism that may persistently alter the functioning of disturbed tropical forests. Conclusions: Based on an extensive literature review, we propose a conceptual model in which soil erosion reinforces disturbance effects on tropical forests, reducing their resilience with time and increasing their likelihood of being trapped in an alternative vegetation state that is persistently vulnerable to erosion. We present supporting field evidence from two distinct forests in central Amazonia that have been repeatedly disturbed. Overall, the strength of the erosion feedback depends on disturbance types and regimes, as well as on local environmental conditions, such as topography, flooding, and soil fertility. As disturbances intensify in tropical landscapes, we argue that the erosion feedback may help to explain why certain forests persist in a degraded state and often undergo critical functional shifts.

    Projecting future impacts of global change including fires on soil erosion to anticipate better land management in the forests of NW Portugal
    Pastor, Amandine Valérie ; Nunes, Joao Pedro ; Ciampalini, Rossano ; Koopmans, Myke ; Baartman, Jantiene ; Huard, Frédéric ; Calheiros, Tomas ; Le-Bissonnais, Yves ; Keizer, Jan Jacob ; Raclot, Damien - \ 2019
    Water 11 (2019)12. - ISSN 2073-4441
    Erosion control techniques - Fire frequency - Global change - Mulching - Runoff - Sediment yield

    Wildfire is known to create the pre-conditions leading to accelerated soil erosion. Unfortunately, its occurrence is expected to increase with climate change. The objective of this study was to assess the impacts of fire on runoffand soil erosion in a context of global change, and to evaluate the effectiveness of mulching as a post-fire erosion mitigation measure. For this, the long-term soil erosion model LandSoil was calibrated for a Mediterranean catchment in north-central Portugal that burnt in 2011. LandSoil was then applied for a 20-year period to quantify the separate and combined hydrological and erosion impacts of fire frequency and of post-fire mulching using four plausible site-specific land use and management scenarios (S1. business-as-usual, S2. market-oriented, S3. environmental protection and S4. sustainable trade-off) and an intermediate climate change scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 by 2050. The obtained results showed that: (i) fire had a reduced impact on runoffgeneration in the studied catchment (<5%) but a marked impact on sediment yield (SY) by about 30%; (ii) eucalypt intensification combined with climate change and fires can increase SY by threefold and (iii) post-fire mulching, combined with riparian vegetation maintenance/restoration and reduced tillage at the landscape level, was highly effective to mitigate soil erosion under global change and associated, increased fire frequency (up to 50% reduction). This study shows how field monitoring data can be combined with numerical erosion modeling to segregate the prominent processes occurring in post forest fire conditions and find the best management pathways to meet international goals on achieving land degradation neutrality (LDN).

    Archetype analysis in sustainability research: Methodological portfolio and analytical frontiers
    Sietz, Diana ; Frey, Ulrich ; Roggero, Matteo ; Gong, Yanqing ; Magliocca, Nicholas ; Tan, Rong ; Janssen, Peter ; Václavík, Tomáš - \ 2019
    Ecology and Society 24 (2019)3. - ISSN 1708-3087
    Archetypical - Global change - Knowledge transfer - Land system - Pattern - Review - Socio-ecological system - Up-scaling

    In sustainability research, archetype analysis reveals patterns of factors and processes that repeatedly shape social-ecological systems. These patterns help improve our understanding of global concerns, including vulnerability, land management, food security, and governance. During the last decade, the portfolio of methods used to investigate archetypes has been growing rapidly. However, these methods differ widely in their epistemological and normative underpinnings, data requirements, and suitability to address particular research purposes. Therefore, guidance is needed for systematically choosing methods in archetype analysis. We synthesize strengths and weaknesses of key methods used to identify archetypes. Demonstrating that there is no “one-size-fits-all” approach, we discuss advantages and shortcomings of a range of methods for archetype analysis in sustainability research along gradients that capture the treatment of causality, normativity, spatial variations, and temporal dynamics. Based on this discussion, we highlight seven analytical frontiers that bear particular potential for tackling methodological limitations. As a milestone in archetype analysis, our synthesis supports researchers in reflecting on methodological implications, including opportunities and limitations related to causality, normativity, space, and time considerations in view of specific purposes and research questions. This enables innovative research designs in future archetype analysis, thereby contributing to the advancement of sustainability research and decision-making.

    The impact of socio-economic development and climate change on E. coli loads and concentrations in Kabul River, Pakistan
    Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid ; Islam, M.M.M. ; Hofstra, Nynke - \ 2019
    Science of the Total Environment 650 (2019). - ISSN 0048-9697 - p. 1935 - 1943.
    Bacterial modelling - Escherichia coli - Global change - Hydrological modelling - Scenario analysis

    Microbial pollution is a major problem worldwide. High concentrations of Escherichia coli have been found in Kabul River in Pakistan. E. coli concentrations vary under different socio-economic conditions, such as population and livestock densities, urbanisation, sanitation and treatment of wastewater and manure, and climate-change aspects, such as floods and droughts. In this paper, we assess potential future E. coli loads and concentrations in the Kabul River using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool with scenarios that are based on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs and RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Scenario_1 considers moderate population and livestock density growth, planned urbanisation and strongly improved wastewater and manure treatment (based on SSP1, “Sustainability”), and moderate climate change (RCP4.5, moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions). Scenario_2 considers strong population and livestock density growth, moderate urbanisation, slightly improved wastewater treatment, no manure treatment (based on SSP3, “Regional rivalry”) and strong climate change (RCP8.5, high GHG emissions). Simulated E. coli responses to Scenario_2 suggest a mid-century increase in loads by 111% and a late century increase of 201% compared to baseline loads. Similarly, simulated E. coli loads are reduced by 60% for the mid-century and 78% for the late century compared to the baseline loads. When additional treatment is simulated in Scenario_1, the loads are reduced even further by 94%, 92% and 99.3% compared to the baseline concentrations when additional tertiary treatment, manure treatment or both have been applied respectively. This study is one of the first to apply combined socio-economic development and climate change scenario analysis with an E. coli concentration model to better understand how these concentrations may change in the future. The scenario analysis shows that reducing E. coli concentrations in Pakistan's rivers is possible, but requires strongly improved waste water treatment and manure management measures.

    Responses of competitive understorey species to spatial environmental gradients inaccurately explain temporal changes
    Lombaerde, Emiel De; Verheyen, Kris ; Perring, Michael P. ; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus ; Calster, Hans Van; Brunet, Jörg ; Chudomelová, Markéta ; Decocq, Guillaume ; Diekmann, Martin ; Durak, Tomasz ; Hédl, Radim ; Heinken, Thilo ; Hommel, Patrick ; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan ; Kopecký, Martin ; Lenoir, Jonathan ; Macek, Martin ; Máliš, František ; Mitchell, Fraser J.G. ; Naaf, Tobias ; Newman, Miles ; Petřík, Petr ; Reczyńska, Kamila ; Schmidt, Wolfgang ; Świerkosz, Krzysztof ; Vild, Ondřej ; Wulf, Monika ; Baeten, Lander - \ 2018
    Basic and Applied Ecology 30 (2018). - ISSN 1439-1791 - p. 52 - 64.
    Canopy - Chronosequence - Cover abundance - forestREplot - Global change - Herb layer - Nitrogen deposition - Spatiotemporal resurvey data - Temperate forest - Tree regeneration

    Understorey plant communities play a key role in the functioning of forest ecosystems. Under favourable environmental conditions, competitive understorey species may develop high abundances and influence important ecosystem processes such as tree regeneration. Thus, understanding and predicting the response of competitive understorey species as a function of changing environmental conditions is important for forest managers. In the absence of sufficient temporal data to quantify actual vegetation changes, space-for-time (SFT) substitution is often used, i.e. studies that use environmental gradients across space to infer vegetation responses to environmental change over time. Here we assess the validity of such SFT approaches and analysed 36 resurvey studies from ancient forests with low levels of recent disturbances across temperate Europe to assess how six competitive understorey plant species respond to gradients of overstorey cover, soil conditions, atmospheric N deposition and climatic conditions over space and time. The combination of historical and contemporary surveys allows (i) to test if observed contemporary patterns across space are consistent at the time of the historical survey, and, crucially, (ii) to assess whether changes in abundance over time given recorded environmental change match expectations from patterns recorded along environmental gradients in space. We found consistent spatial relationships at the two periods: local variation in soil variables and overstorey cover were the best predictors of individual species’ cover while interregional variation in coarse-scale variables, i.e. N deposition and climate, was less important. However, we found that our SFT approach could not accurately explain the large variation in abundance changes over time. We thus recommend to be cautious when using SFT substitution to infer species responses to temporal changes.

    Promises and challenges in insect-plant interactions
    Giron, David ; Dubreuil, Géraldine ; Bennett, Alison ; Dedeine, Franck ; Dicke, Marcel ; Dyer, Lee A. ; Erb, Matthias ; Harris, Marion O. ; Huguet, Elisabeth ; Kaloshian, Isgouhi ; Kawakita, Atsushi ; Lopez-Vaamonde, Carlos ; Palmer, Todd M. ; Petanidou, Theodora ; Poulsen, Michael ; Sallé, Aurélien ; Simon, Jean Christophe ; Terblanche, John S. ; Thiéry, Denis ; Whiteman, Noah K. ; Woods, H.A. ; Pincebourde, Sylvain - \ 2018
    Entomologia Experimentalis et Applicata 166 (2018)5. - ISSN 0013-8703 - p. 319 - 343.
    Community ecology - Ecological networks - Evolutionary genomics - Forests and agroecosystems - Global change - Insect effectors - Multitrophic interactions - Phylogenetics - Plant response - Symbionts - Thermal ecology

    There is tremendous diversity of interactions between plants and other species. These relationships range from antagonism to mutualism. Interactions of plants with members of their ecological community can lead to a profound metabolic reconfiguration of the plants' physiology. This reconfiguration can favour beneficial organisms and deter antagonists like pathogens or herbivores. Determining the cellular and molecular dialogue between plants, microbes, and insects, and its ecological and evolutionary implications is important for understanding the options for each partner to adopt an adaptive response to its biotic environment. Moving forward, understanding how such ecological interactions are shaped by environmental change and how we potentially mitigate deleterious effects will be increasingly important. The development of integrative multidisciplinary approaches may provide new solutions to the major ecological and societal issues ahead of us. The rapid evolution of technology provides valuable tools and opens up novel ways to test hypotheses that were previously unanswerable, but requires that scientists master these tools, understand potential ethical problems flowing from their implementation, and train new generations of biologists with diverse technical skills. Here, we provide brief perspectives and discuss future promise and challenges for research on insect-plant interactions building on the 16th International Symposium on Insect-Plant interactions (SIP) meeting that was held in Tours, France (2-6 July 2017). Talks, posters, and discussions are distilled into key research areas in insect-plant interactions, highlighting the current state of the field and major challenges, and future directions for both applied and basic research.

    Millennial multi-proxy reconstruction of oasis dynamics in Jordan, by the Dead Sea
    Eggenberger, Sebastian ; Gobet, Erika ; Leeuwen, Jacqueline F.N. van; Schwörer, Christoph ; Knaap, Willem O. van der; Dobben, Han F. van; Vogel, Hendrik ; Tinner, Willy ; Rambeau, Claire M.C. - \ 2018
    Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 27 (2018)5. - ISSN 0939-6314 - p. 649 - 664.
    Fire history - Global change - Phoenix dactylifera - Pollen - Vegetation - XRF

    Vegetation reconstructions in the Dead Sea region based on sediment records are potentially biased, because the vast majority of them derive from the western side of the sea, and only focus on large areas and time spans, while little is known about extra-local (< 1,000 m radius) to local (< 20 m radius) changes. To fill this gap, we compared a vegetation survey with modern pollen assemblages from the “Palm Terrace” oasis ca. 300 m b.s.l. (below sea level), at the eastern edge of the Dead Sea. This revealed how the oasis vegetation is reflected in pollen assemblages. In addition, two sediment cores were collected from the centre and the edge of a mire at the oasis to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics. We analysed sedimentary pollen and microscopic charcoal, as well as the sediment chemistry by X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and conductivity, focusing on the past ~ 1,000 years. Pollen results suggest that mesophilous Phoenix dactylifera (date palm) stands and wetland vegetation expanded there around ad 1300–1500 and 1700–1900. During the past ca. 100 years, drought-adapted Chenopodiaceae gained ground, partly replacing the palms. Results from elemental analysis, especially of elements such as chlorine, provide evidence of enhanced evaporative salinization. Increasing desertification and the associated decline of mesophilous date palm stands during the past ca. 50 years is probably related to a decrease in annual precipitation and also corresponds to decreasing water levels in the Dead Sea. These have mainly been caused by increasing extraction of fresh water from tributaries and wells, mainly for local agriculture and industry. In the future, with hotter and drier conditions as well as increased use of water, oasis vegetation along the Dead Sea might be at further risk of contraction or even extinction.

    Priorities for research in soil ecology
    Eisenhauer, Nico ; Antunes, Pedro M. ; Bennett, Alison E. ; Birkhofer, Klaus ; Bissett, Andrew ; Bowker, Matthew A. ; Caruso, Tancredi ; Chen, Baodong ; Coleman, David C. ; Boer, Wietse de; Ruiter, Peter de; DeLuca, Thomas H. ; Frati, Francesco ; Griffiths, Bryan S. ; Hart, Miranda M. ; Hättenschwiler, Stephan ; Haimi, Jari ; Heethoff, Michael ; Kaneko, Nobuhiro ; Kelly, Laura C. ; Leinaas, Hans Petter ; Lindo, Zoë ; Macdonald, Catriona ; Rillig, Matthias C. ; Ruess, Liliane ; Scheu, Stefan ; Schmidt, Olaf ; Seastedt, Timothy R. ; Straalen, Nico M. van; Tiunov, Alexei V. ; Zimmer, Martin ; Powell, Jeff R. - \ 2017
    Pedobiologia 63 (2017). - ISSN 0031-4056 - p. 1 - 7.
    Aboveground-belowground interactions - Biodiversity–ecosystem functioning - Biogeography - Chemical ecology - Climate change - Ecosystem services - Global change - Microbial ecology - Novel environments - Plant-microbe interactions - Soil biodiversity - Soil food web - Soil management - Soil processes
    The ecological interactions that occur in and with soil are of consequence in many ecosystems on the planet. These interactions provide numerous essential ecosystem services, and the sustainable management of soils has attracted increasing scientific and public attention. Although soil ecology emerged as an independent field of research many decades ago, and we have gained important insights into the functioning of soils, there still are fundamental aspects that need to be better understood to ensure that the ecosystem services that soils provide are not lost and that soils can be used in a sustainable way. In this perspectives paper, we highlight some of the major knowledge gaps that should be prioritized in soil ecological research. These research priorities were compiled based on an online survey of 32 editors of Pedobiologia – Journal of Soil Ecology. These editors work at universities and research centers in Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia. The questions were categorized into four themes: (1) soil biodiversity and biogeography, (2) interactions and the functioning of ecosystems, (3) global change and soil management, and (4) new directions. The respondents identified priorities that may be achievable in the near future, as well as several that are currently achievable but remain open. While some of the identified barriers to progress were technological in nature, many respondents cited a need for substantial leadership and goodwill among members of the soil ecology research community, including the need for multi-institutional partnerships, and had substantial concerns regarding the loss of taxonomic expertise.
    Big data integration : Pan-European fungal species observations' assembly for addressing contemporary questions in ecology and global change biology
    Andrew, Carrie ; Heegaard, Einar ; Kirk, Paul M. ; Bässler, Claus ; Heilmann-Clausen, Jacob ; Krisai-Greilhuber, Irmgard ; Kuijper, Thomas ; Senn-Irlet, Beatrice ; Büntgen, Ulf ; Kauserud, Håvard - \ 2017
    Fungal Biology Reviews 31 (2017)2. - ISSN 1749-4613 - p. 88 - 98.
    Biogeography - Citizen science - Fungi - Global change - Meta-database - Open-source

    Species occurrence observations are increasingly available for scientific analyses through citizen science projects and digitization of museum records, representing a largely untapped ecological resource. When combined with open-source data, there is unparalleled potential for understanding many aspects of the ecology and biogeography of organisms. Here we describe the process of assembling a pan-European mycological meta-database (ClimFun) and integrating it with open-source data to advance the fields of macroecology and biogeography against a backdrop of global change. Initially 7.3 million unique fungal species fruit body records, spanning nine countries, were processed and assembled into 6 million records of more than 10,000 species. This is an extraordinary amount of fungal data to address macro-ecological questions. We provide two examples of fungal species with different life histories, one ectomycorrhizal and one wood decaying, to demonstrate how such continental-scale meta-databases can offer unique insights into climate change effects on fungal phenology and fruiting patterns in recent decades.

    A nitrogen index to track changes in butterfly species assemblages under nitrogen deposition
    Wallis de Vries, Michiel ; Swaay, Chris A.M. van - \ 2017
    Biological Conservation 212 (2017)pt. B. - ISSN 0006-3207 - p. 448 - 453.
    Biodiversity - Butterflies - Global change - Indicators - Insects - Nitrogen deposition
    The impacts of nitrogen deposition (N) on animal communities are still poorly understood in comparison to plant communities. Long-term monitoring of community changes may contribute to this understanding, complementing experimental studies on underlying mechanisms. Butterflies are particularly suitable for such analyses, because the different species cover a broad gradient of productivity, their ecological traits are well-known, monitoring data are available in a growing number of countries, and the short life history of butterflies ensures a rapid response to changing environmental conditions.Here, we use species-specific nitrogen optima to develop a community nitrogen index (CNI) for butterflies in the Netherlands. Over a 25-year period (1990-2015), data from the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme reveal a significant increase in the CNI in response to high nitrogen deposition levels. However, the rate of increase is declining, in close parallel with reduced nitrogen deposition loads. The continuing increase indicates that nitrogen deposition still exceeds the critical nitrogen load of butterfly communities in the Netherlands. Overall, the relative increase of butterflies from more productive environments reflects the advantage, under high nitrogen availability, of mobile and multivoltine species with high reproductive capacity, rapid larval development and hibernation as pupae or adults. We discuss the perspectives and limitations in applying the CNI at both national and local scales. We propose that, when taking the critical nitrogen load of the examined butterfly community into account, the CNI may prove a valuable tool to track changes of biotic communities in relation to nitrogen deposition.
    Impacts of population growth, urbanisation and sanitation changes on global human Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water
    Hofstra, Nynke ; Vermeulen-Henstra, Lucie - \ 2016
    International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health 219 (2016)7. - ISSN 1438-4639 - p. 599 - 605.
    Global change - Modelling - Scenarios - SSP - Waterborne pathogens

    Cryptosporidium is a pathogenic protozoan parasite and is a leading cause of diarrhoea worldwide. The concentration of Cryptosporidium in the surface water is a determinant for probability of exposure and the risk of disease. Surface water concentrations are expected to change with population growth, urbanisation and changes in sanitation. The objective of this paper is to assess the importance of future changes in population, urbanisation and sanitation on global human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface water. The GloWPa-Crypto H1 (the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for Human Cryptosporidium emissions version 1) model is presented and run for 2010 and with scenarios for 2050. The new scenarios are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) developed for the climate community. The scenarios comprise assumptions on sanitation changes in line with the storylines and population and urbanisation changes from the SSPs. In SSP1 population growth is limited, urbanisation large and sanitation and waste water treatment strongly improve. SSP1* is the same as SSP1, but waste water treatment does not improve. SSP3 sees large population growth, moderate urbanisation and sanitation and waste water treatment fractions that are the same as in 2010. Total global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water for 2010 are estimated to be 1.6 × 1017 oocysts per year, with hotspots in the most urbanised parts of the world. In 2050 emissions are expected to decrease by 24% or increase by 52% and 70% for SSP1, SSP3 and SSP1* respectively. The emissions increase in all scenarios for countries in the Middle East and Africa (MAF) region, while emissions in large parts in Europe decrease in scenarios SSP1 and SSP3. Improving sanitation by connecting the population to sewers, should be combined with waste water treatment, otherwise (SSP1*) emissions in 2050 are expected to be much larger than in a situation with strong population growth and slow development of safe water and improved sanitation (SSP3). The results show that population increase, urbanisation and changes in sanitation should be considered when water quality and resulting health risks are estimated by water managers or public health specialists.

    Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives by 2050 : Explorations using the IMAGE integrated assessment model
    Vuuren, D.P. van; Kok, Marcel ; Lucas, P.L. ; Prins, Anne Gerdien ; Alkemade, Rob ; Berg, Maurits van den; Bouwman, Lex ; Esch, Stefan van der; Jeuken, Michel ; Kram, Tom ; Stehfest, Elke - \ 2015
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98 (2015). - ISSN 0040-1625 - p. 303 - 323.
    Global change - Integrated assessment - Modelling - Sustainable development

    In 2012, governments worldwide renewed their commitments to a more sustainable development that would eradicate poverty, halt climate change and conserve ecosystems, and initiated a process to create a long-term vision by formulating Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although progress in achieving a more sustainable development has been made in some areas, overall, actions have not been able to bend the trend in critical areas (including those related to the so-called food-water-energy nexus). Here, we analyze how different combinations of technological measures and behavioral changes could contribute to achieving a set of sustainability objectives, taking into account the interlinkages between them. The objectives include eradicating hunger, providing universal access to modern energy, preventing dangerous climate change, conserving biodiversity and controlling air pollution. The analysis identifies different pathways that achieve these objectives simultaneously, but they all require substantial transformations in the energy and food systems, that go far beyond historic progress and currently formulated policies. The analysis also shows synergies and trade-offs between achieving the different objectives, concluding that achieving them requires a comprehensive approach. The scenario analysis does not point at a fundamental trade-off between the objectives related to poverty eradication and those related to environmental sustainability. The different pathways of achieving the set of long-term objectives and their implications for short-term action can contribute to building a comprehensive strategy to meet the SDGs by proposing near-term actions.

    Biome-specific effects of nitrogen and phosphorus on the photosynthetic characteristics of trees at a forest-savanna boundary in Cameroon
    Ferreira Domingues, Tomas ; Ishida, F.Y. ; Feldpausch, T.R. ; Grace, John ; Meir, Patrick ; Saiz, Gustavo ; Sene, Olivier ; Schrodt, Franziska ; Sonké, Bonaventure ; Taedoumg, Herman ; Veenendaal, E.M. ; Lewis, Simon ; Lloyd, Jon - \ 2015
    Oecologia 178 (2015)3. - ISSN 0029-8549 - p. 659 - 672.
    Global change - Nutrient - Photosynthesis - Terrestrial productivity - Tropical rain forest

    Photosynthesis/nutrient relationships of proximally growing forest and savanna trees were determined in an ecotonal region of Cameroon (Africa). Although area-based foliar N concentrations were typically lower for savanna trees, there was no difference in photosynthetic rates between the two vegetation formation types. Opposite to N, area-based P concentrations were—on average—slightly lower for forest trees; a dependency of photosynthetic characteristics on foliar P was only evident for savanna trees. Thus savanna trees use N more efficiently than their forest counterparts, but only in the presence of relatively high foliar P. Along with some other recent studies, these results suggest that both N and P are important modulators of woody tropical plant photosynthetic capacities, influencing photosynthetic metabolism in different ways that are also biome specific. Attempts to find simple unifying equations to describe woody tropical vegetation photosynthesis-nutrient relationships are likely to meet with failure, with ecophysiological distinctions between forest and savanna requiring acknowledgement.

    The contributions of regional knowledge networks researching environmental changes in Latin America and Africa : A synthesis of what they can do and why they can be policy relevant
    Lahsen, Myanna ; Bustamante, Mercedes M.C. ; Swap, Robert ; McNie, Elizabeth ; Ometto, Jean P.H.B. ; Schor, Tatiana ; Tiessen, Holm ; Andelman, Sandy ; Annegarn, Harold - \ 2013
    Ecology and Society 18 (2013)3. - ISSN 1708-3087
    Africa - Capacity building - Global change - Latin America - Scientific research networks

    We provide a synthesis of what regional scientific research networks in less developed regions of the world can do and why they might be relevant for societal decisions and practice. We do so through a focus on three regional science network initiatives that aim to enhance understanding of the multiscalar dynamics of global environmental change (GEC) regionally and globally, namely the Southern Africa Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000), the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA), and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change (IAI). With a view to aiding future efforts at regional research network formation, we assess whether and how these three networks enhanced regional science, and the extent to which they sought and managed to bridge the science-policy gap that challenges GEC science as a whole. Identifying key decisions and attributes bearing on their successes, the analysis attends specifically to how the three networks sought to build capacity, how differences and similarities between them affected their level of autonomy from governments, and how this and other factors influenced their functioning and achievements.

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