The Fatter the Tail, the Fatter the Climate Agreement. Simulating the Influence of Fat Tails in Climate Change Damages on the Success of International Climate Negotiations
Dellink, R.B. ; Dekker, T. ; Ketterer, J. - \ 2013
Environmental and Resource Economics 56 (2013)2. - ISSN 0924-6460 - p. 277 - 305.
international environmental agreements - stability likelihood - uncertainty - coalitions - strategies
International climate negotiations take place in a setting where uncertainties regarding the impacts of climate change are very large. In this paper, we examine the influence of increasing the probability and impact of large climate change damages, also known as the ‘fat tail’, on the formation of an international mitigation agreement. We systematically vary the shape and location of the distribution of climate change damages using the stochastic version of the applied game-theoretical STACO model. Our aim is to identify how changes to the distributional form affect the stability of coalitions and their performance. We find that fatter upper tails increase the likelihood that more ambitious coalitions are stable as well as the performance of these stable coalitions. Fatter tails thus imply more successful, or ‘fatter’, international climate agreements
Marine protected areas in the high seas and their impact on international fishing agreements
Punt, M.J. ; Weikard, H.P. ; Ierland, E.C. van - \ 2013
Natural Resource Modeling 26 (2013)2. - ISSN 0890-8575 - p. 164 - 193.
endogenous minimum participation - fisheries - stability - reserves - management - coalitions - link
Marine protected areas (MPAs) are gaining momentum as tools within fisheries management. Although many studies have been conducted to their use and potential, only few authors have considered their use in the High Seas. In this paper, we investigate the effects of fish growth enhancing MPAs on the formation of regional fisheries management organisations (RFMOs) for highly migratory fish stocks. We argue that in absence of enforcement MPAs constitute a weakest-link public good, which can only be realized if everyone agrees. We combine this notion with a game theoretic model of RFMO formation to derive potentially stable RFMOs with and without MPAs. We find that MPAs generally increase the parameter range over which RFMOs are stable, and that they increase stability in a number of cases as compared to the case without MPAs. They do not necessarily induce a fully cooperative solution among all fishing nations. In summary, results of this paper suggest a positive role for MPAs in the High Seas
Uncertainty and climate treaties: Does ignorance pay?
Dellink, R.B. ; Finus, M. - \ 2012
Resource and Energy Economics 34 (2012)4. - ISSN 0928-7655 - p. 565 - 584.
international environmental agreements - stability likelihood - irreversibility - strategies - coalitions - emissions - model
Uncertainty and learning play an important role in the management of many environmental and resource problems and in particular in climate change. In stylized game-theoretic models of international environmental treaty formation, which capture the strategic interactions between nations, learning usually has a negative impact on the success of cooperation. We use a richer climate model that captures the large heterogeneity between different world regions and considers uncertainty about the benefits and costs from climate mitigation. By explicitly exploiting differences between regions and allowing transfers to mitigate free-rider incentives, we derive much more positive conclusions about the role of learning.
Can altruism stabilise international climate agreements?
Pol, T.D. van der; Weikard, H.P. ; Ierland, E.C. van - \ 2012
Ecological Economics 81 (2012). - ISSN 0921-8009 - p. 112 - 120.
environmental agreements - contingent valuation - social identity - public-goods - cooperation - preferences - fairness - coalitions - consumer - schemes
We study the impact of altruism on the stability of international climate agreements. We consider the standard two-stage game for the analysis of international environmental agreements where countries announce their participation at the first stage and abatement levels are chosen at the second stage. We modify the game to consider altruism in the participation decision, i.e. countries consider, to a certain extent, the net benefits for other countries in their decisions. We study two types of altruism: impartial altruism, where countries show a concern for all other countries, and community altruism, where the concern extends only to coalition partners. We use the stability of coalitions model (STACO) to illustrate the impacts of both types of altruism on the stability of a climate agreement. We find that a limited degree of altruism is sufficient to stabilise the Grand Coalition such that a globally efficient climate policy can emerge while in the absence of altruism only a fraction of countries would join a climate agreement and the benefits of cooperation would largely remain unexploited. Our results indicate how moving beyond national interests can support the success of international climate agreements
International climate agreements under induced technological change
Nagashima, M.N. ; Weikard, H.P. ; Bruin, K.C. de; Dellink, R.B. - \ 2011
Metroeconomica : international review of economics 62 (2011)4. - ISSN 0026-1386 - p. 612 - 634.
klimaatverandering - internationale verdragen - technology assessment - climatic change - international agreements - technology assessment - development spillovers - technical change - environmental agreements - co2 abatement - coalitions - stability - economics - future - models - policy
We examine the impact of technological change on the stability of climate coalitions and explore how international cooperation on abatement affects the incentives of signatories to invest in R&D to reduce emissions. We compare the case of no technological change with exogenous technological change and induced technological change. In the latter case R&D investments are endogenous. We find that the highest equilibrium pay-offs are achieved in the case of induced technological change. Furthermore, the formation of a climate coalition boosts R&D investments in carbon abatement technologies in signatory countries
Community health promotion: A framework to facilitate and evaluate supportive social environments for health
Wagemakers, A. ; Vaandrager, L. ; Koelen, M.A. ; Saan, H. ; Leeuwis, C. - \ 2010
Evaluation and Program Planning 33 (2010)4. - ISSN 0149-7189 - p. 428 - 435.
physical-activity - public-health - research partnerships - coalitions - capacity - model - participation - determinants - programs - collaboration
The evaluation of community health promotion designed to create supportive social environments for health is still in its infancy. There is a lack of consensus on concepts, a lack of information on interventions that bring about social change, and a lack of feasible methods and tools. Consequently, the effectiveness of community health promotion may not be evaluated under all relevant headings. Therefore, this study aims to contribute to the evaluation of change in the social environment by presenting a framework. On the basis of the relevant literature we describe the relation between social environment and health predicting mediators. We selected participation and collaboration as core concepts in moderating the social environment of health because these terms give insight into the actual dynamics of health promotion practice. We synthesize the results into a framework with operational variables and offer four guidelines on how to apply the framework: use the variables as a menu, set specific aims for social change processes, use an action research approach, and triangulate data. The framework and guidelines enable the start-up, facilitation and evaluation of social change and learning processes and provide common ground for researchers and practitioners to improve the practice of their professions
About evidence based and beyond: a discourse-analytic study of stakeholders' talk on involvement in the early development of personalized nutrition
Bouwman, L.I. ; Molder, H.F.M. te - \ 2009
Health Education Research 24 (2009)2. - ISSN 0268-1153 - p. 253 - 269.
technology-assessment - health promotion - community-health - education - coalitions - feedback - future - views - fat
This paper draws on discourse analysis to examine how Dutch stakeholders in health education, health care, health insurance, social science, the food industry and the media make sense of innovations in the field of `personalized nutrition¿ and their own role and significance in an early stage of technology development. Previous research has focused on factors that help or hinder collaboration between stakeholders, and on the development, management and implementation of joint programs. However, no attention has been paid to how stakeholders themselves handle issues of responsibility and initiative in relation to early technology development and collaborative interactions. The present study shows how such stakeholders establish themselves as gatekeepers of innovation by displaying authority on what consumers `want¿ and `cannot do¿, while avoiding a proactive role. Uncertainty in scientific knowledge, fixed roles and responsibilities and dependency on incompetent or biased others are drawn upon to account for a wait-and-see policy