Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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    A Conceptual Framework for Range-Expanding Species that Track Human-Induced Environmental Change
    Essl, Franz ; Dullinger, Stefan ; Genovesi, Piero ; Hulme, Philip E. ; Jeschke, Jonathan M. ; Katsanevakis, Stelios ; Kühn, Ingolf ; Lenzner, Bernd ; Pauchard, Aníbal ; Pyšek, Petr ; Rabitsch, Wolfgang ; Richardson, David M. ; Seebens, Hanno ; Kleunen, Mark Van; Putten, Wim H. Van Der; Vilà, Montserrat ; Bacher, Sven - \ 2019
    Bioscience 69 (2019)11. - ISSN 0006-3568 - p. 908 - 919.
    biogeography - biological invasions - climate change - framework - global environmental change - native - range expansion - spread - terminology

    For many species, human-induced environmental changes are important indirect drivers of range expansion into new regions. We argue that it is important to distinguish the range dynamics of such species from those that occur without, or with less clear, involvement of human-induced environmental changes. We elucidate the salient features of the rapid increase in the number of species whose range dynamics are human induced, and review the relationships and differences to both natural range expansion and biological invasions. We discuss the consequences for science, policy and management in an era of rapid global change and highlight four key challenges relating to basic gaps in knowledge, and the transfer of scientific understanding to biodiversity management and policy. We conclude that range-expanding species responding to human-induced environmental change will become an essential feature for biodiversity management and science in the Anthropocene. Finally, we propose the term neonative for these taxa.

    Incorporating Renewable Energy Science in Regional Landscape Design: Results from a Competition in The Netherlands
    Waal, R.M. de; Stremke, S. ; Hoorn, A. van; Duchhart, I. ; Brink, A. van den - \ 2015
    Sustainability 7 (2015)5. - ISSN 2071-1050 - p. 4806 - 4828.
    architecture - framework
    Referentie: de Waal, R.M.; Stremke, S.; van Hoorn, A.; Duchhart, I.; van den Brink, A. Incorporating Renewable Energy Science in Regional Landscape Design: Results from a Competition in The Netherlands. Sustainability 2015, 7, 4806-4828.
    Flexible design in water and wastewater engineering - Definitions literature and decision guide
    Spiller, M. ; Vreeburg, J.H.G. ; Leusbrock, I. ; Zeeman, G. - \ 2015
    Journal of Environmental Management 149 (2015). - ISSN 0301-4797 - p. 271 - 281.
    real-time control - product modularization - system-design - management - technology - flexibility - framework - reuse - infrastructure - sustainability
    Urban water and wastewater systems face uncertain developments including technological progress, climate change and urban development. To ensure the sustainability of these systems under dynamic conditions it has been proposed that technologies and infrastructure should be flexible, adaptive and robust. However, in literature it is often unclear what these technologies and infrastructure are. Furthermore, the terms flexible, adaptive and robust are often used interchangeably, despite important differences. In this paper we will i) define the terminology, ii) provide an overview of the status of flexible infrastructure design alternatives for water and wastewater networks and treatment, and iii) develop guidelines for the selection of flexible design alternatives. Results indicate that, with the exception of Net Present Valuation methods, there is little research available on the design and evaluation of technologies that can enable flexibility. Flexible design alternatives reviewed include robust design, phased design, modular design, modular/component platform design and design for remanufacturing. As developments in the water sector are driven by slow variables (climate change, urban development), rather than market forces, it is suggested that phased design or component platform designs are suitable for responding to change, while robust design is an option when operations face highly dynamic variability.
    Organising a safe space for navigating social-ecological transformations to sustainability
    Pereira, L. ; Karpouzoglou, T.D. ; Doshi, S. ; Frantzeskaki, N. - \ 2015
    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12 (2015)6. - ISSN 1660-4601 - p. 6027 - 6044.
    transitions - innovation - framework - systems - perspective - governance - complexity - knowledge - responses - pathways
    The need for developing socially just living conditions for the world’s growing population whilst keeping human societies within a ‘safe operating space’ has become a modern imperative. This requires transformative changes in the dominant social norms, behaviours, governance and management regimes that guide human responses in areas such as urban ecology, public health, resource security (e.g., food, water, energy access), economic development and biodiversity conservation. However, such systemic transformations necessitate experimentation in public arenas of exchange and a deepening of processes that can widen multi-stakeholder learning. We argue that there is an emergent potential in bridging the sustainability transitions and resilience approaches to create new scientific capacity that can support large-scale social-ecological transformations (SETs) to sustainability globally, not just in the West. In this article, we elucidate a set of guiding principles for the design of a ‘safe space’ to encourage stronger interactions between these research areas and others that are relevant to the challenges faced. We envisage new opportunities for transdisciplinary collaboration that will develop an adaptive and evolving community of practice. In particular, we emphasise the great opportunity for engaging with the role of emerging economies in facilitating safe space experimentation.
    Moral Values and Attitudes Toward Dutch Sow Husbandry
    Bergstra, T.J. ; Gremmen, H.G.J. ; Stassen, E.N. - \ 2015
    Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 28 (2015)2. - ISSN 1187-7863 - p. 375 - 401.
    farm-animal-welfare - consumer concerns - pig farmers - market - ethics - agriculture - netherlands - stakeholder - perception - framework
    Attitudes toward sow husbandry differ between citizens and conventional pig farmers. Research showed that moral values could only predict the judgment of people in case of culling healthy animals in the course of a disease epidemic to a certain extent. Therefore, we hypothesized that attitudes of citizens and pig farmers cannot be predicted one-on-one by moral values. Furthermore, we were interested in getting insight in whether moral values can be useful in bridging the gap between attitudes toward sow husbandry of citizens and pig farmers. Based on a questionnaire, it was found that pig farmers and citizens, when considered as one group, shared the valuation of most moral values. However, when studying the four clusters of citizens with different attitudes toward sow husbandry, determined in a previous study, a variation in valuation of the moral values between the clusters of citizens and farmers came to the fore. This means that moral values are interpreted differently by groups of people when forming attitudes toward sow husbandry. The results of our study give an indication of which moral values are weighed differently between clusters of citizens and pig farmers. This information can be useful in future research on attitudes toward animal husbandry in order to understand why attitudes differ between groups of people. Besides, our results can be useful for the pig sector and citizens to learn to understand each other’s attitudes. With this understanding it is possible to invest in a husbandry system that can build on societal support.
    Sustainability assessment of food chain logistics
    Bloemhof, J.M. ; Vorst, J.G.A.J. van der; Bastl, M. ; Allaoui, H. - \ 2015
    International Journal of Logistics research and applications 18 (2015)2. - ISSN 1367-5567 - p. 101 - 117.
    supply chain - management - operations - framework - metrics
    Food chain logistics plays an important role in the sustainability performance of the food sector. Therefore, project SCALE (Step Change in Agri-food Logistics Ecosystems) started as a collaborative international project, aiming for tools and frameworks for the food sector to make a step change in operational practices. A sustainability framework is introduced to propose a structured and rational method for assessing sustainability. Next, we empirically apply the framework, based upon explorative web-based research and semi-structured interviews with the best practice players in the field in the Netherlands, the UK and France. Findings provide clear insights into the current state of the art regarding the use of sustainability performance indicators, companies’ sustainability strategies, supply chain redesign strategies currently applied in practice and experienced barriers to sustainability improvement. Overall, logistics service providers seem to have a wait-and-see attitude towards sustainability where food companies are more proactive following market demands for more sustainable products.
    Editorial: The governance of adaptation to climate change as a multi-level, multi-sector and multi-actor challenge: a European comparative perspective
    Dewulf, A.R.P.J. ; Meijerink, Sander ; Runhaar, Hens - \ 2015
    Journal of Water and Climate Change 6 (2015)1. - ISSN 2040-2244 - p. 1 - 8.
    klimaatadaptatie - hoogwaterbeheersing - governance - internationale vergelijkingen - nederland - verenigd koninkrijk - vlaanderen - duitsland - zweden - climate adaptation - flood control - governance - international comparisons - netherlands - uk - flanders - germany - sweden - environmental-policy integration - framework
    There is increasing recognition of the need for society to adapt to the impacts of climate change, especially in the water sector. Adaptation to climatic impacts involves both infrastructural adjustments, such as reinforcing dykes or creating water storage capacity, and broader processes of societal change, such as adjusting land use planning, more efficient water use or agricultural transitions. The aim of this special issue is not to ‘assess’ the current state of play for adaptation strategies and policies in Europe. Our interest is in the many facets of the governance of climate change adaptation, referring to the interactions and arrangements between public and/or private actors that are aimed at purposefully steering collective issues of adaptation to climate change.
    A control model for object virtualization in supply chain management
    Verdouw, C.N. ; Beulens, A.J.M. ; Reijers, H.A. ; Vorst, J.G.A.J. van der - \ 2015
    Computers in Industry 68 (2015). - ISSN 0166-3615 - p. 116 - 131.
    information-systems - intelligent products - science research - design science - internet - things - life - technology - framework - demand
    Due to the emergence of the Internet of Things, supply chain control can increasingly be based on virtual objects instead of on the direct observation of physical objects. Object virtualization allows the decoupling of control activities from the handling and observing of physical products and resources. Moreover, virtual objects can be enriched with information that goes beyond human observation. This will allow for more advanced control capabilities, e.g. concerning tracking and tracing, quality monitoring and supply chain (re)planning. This paper proposes a control model for object virtualization in supply chain management, which is based on a multiple case study in the Dutch floriculture. It includes a typology of distinct mechanisms for object virtualization, which discerns reference objects and future projections next to the representation of real physical objects. The control model helps to define feasible redesign options for the virtualization of supply chain control. It is also of value as a basis to define the requirements for information systems that enable these redesign options.
    The coproduction of knowledge and policy in coastal governance: Integrating mussel fisheries and nature restoration
    Molen, F. van der; Puente Rodriguez, D. ; Swart, J.A.A. ; Windt, H.J. v.d. - \ 2015
    Ocean & Coastal Management 106 (2015). - ISSN 0964-5691 - p. 49 - 60.
    dutch-wadden sea - local ecological knowledge - marine protected areas - adaptive governance - zone management - interface - science - conservation - framework - dynamics
    One of the challenges of coastal governance is to connect a variety of knowledge systems. The purpose of this paper is to show how a coastal governance practice can emerge and stabilize, such that actors with disparate knowledge systems collaborate towards the shared goal of sustainable resource use. We analyze this stabilization in terms of the coproduction of knowledge and policy. This paper is empirically informed by a case study on the transition towards a sustainable mussel fishery in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Our study illuminates the difficulties of underpinning a coastal governance practice with scientific research, since the relevance, quality, and results of research are interpreted differently from the perspectives of resource users and conservationists. Furthermore, our analysis shows that such a governance practice can stabilize through a combination of rule negotiation, legal, societal, and political pressure, along with collaborative knowledge creation. Based on our analysis, we identify several aspects of collaborative knowledge creation that enable the formation of a shared knowledge base for governance in a context of controversy. These include the shared ownership of research, knowledge creation as an integral part of governance, a focus on data and basic facts, and the close involvement of trusted experts. The findings of this study suggest that a controversial setting strongly structures knowledge creation, while at the same time knowledge creation enables coastal governance as a way of dealing with conflicts.
    Individual competencies for managers engaged in corporate sustainable management practices
    Wesselink, R. ; Blok, V. ; Leur, S. van; Lans, T. ; Dentoni, D. - \ 2015
    Journal of Cleaner Production 106 (2015). - ISSN 0959-6526 - p. 497 - 506.
    social-responsibility - higher-education - key competences - capabilities - innovation - framework - business - pitfalls
    Corporations increasingly acknowledge the importance of sustainable practices. Corporate social responsibility is therefore gaining significance in the business world. Since solving corporate social responsibility issues is not a routine job, every challenge in corporate social responsibility requires its own approach; and management competencies are crucial for designing appropriate approaches towards the realization of sustainable solutions. On the basis of seven corporate social responsibility competencies synthesized from the extant literature, this research provides an empirical analysis of which of these competencies managers need in order to achieve corporate social responsibility goals within their specific context; and at which specific stage of the implementation process. The data sources are interviews with corporate social responsibility managers – whose positions and circumstances share many similarities – at four large multinational enterprises. The empirical analysis reveals that managers undertake four corporate social responsibility core tasks: I) orientation, II) reaching common ground, III) performing pilot projects, and IV) embedding results. Within the context of the analysis, the competencies: Systems Thinking, Embracing Diversity and Interdisciplinarity, Interpersonal Competence, Action Competence, and Strategic Management were found to be necessary. The Embracing Diversity and Interdisciplinarity competence was identified as the most relevant. This study contributes to the corporate social responsibility (education) literature by introducing an empirical test of which competencies are considered necessary for managers in various stages of corporate social responsibility implementation. Linking these competencies to core tasks makes them more concrete and increases the chances of interpreting them unambiguously, which in turn can aid learning trajectories in both business and education.
    The need for reflexive evaluation approaches in development cooperation
    Arkesteijn, M.C.M. ; Mierlo, B. van; Leeuwis, C. - \ 2015
    Evaluation : The International Journal of Theory, Research and Practice 21 (2015)1. - ISSN 1356-3890 - p. 99 - 115.
    innovation - system - complexity - framework - poverty - design - benin - story
    Within development cooperation, development issues are increasingly recognized as complex problems requiring new paths towards solving them. In addition to the commonly used two dimensions of complex problems (uncertainty and disagreement), we introduce a third dimension: systemic stability; that is, stability provided by rules, relations and complementary technology. This article reflects on how development evaluation methodologies and especially those introducing a complexity perspective address these three dimensions. Inferring that this third dimension deserves more attention, we explore the characteristics of reflexive evaluation approaches that challenge systemic stability and support processes of learning and institutional change. We conclude that reflexive evaluation approaches may well complement current system approaches in development evaluation practice.
    Institutional constraints for adaptive capacity to climate change in Flevoland’s agriculture
    Mandryk, M. ; Reidsma, P. ; Kartikasari, K. ; Ittersum, M.K. van; Arts, B.J.M. - \ 2015
    Environmental Science & Policy 48 (2015). - ISSN 1462-9011 - p. 147 - 162.
    land-use - adaptation - vulnerability - netherlands - management - variability - framework - barriers - policy - level
    Institutional feasibility defined as the ability of institutions to support adaptive capacity, is an important aspect of climate adaptation, through its influence on the implementation of adaptation measures to climate change. The objective of this study is to create a framework for assessing institutional preconditions that enable or constrain climate change adaptation measures in agriculture and to apply the framework to a case study in agriculture. We adopted and modified the Procedure for Institutional Compatibility Assessment (PICA). Institutions in our framework are characterized by a set of crucial institutional preconditions (CIPs) and indicators linked to each CIP. CIPs refer to both institutional incentives and constraints for implementation of adaptation measures (here to climate change). We applied a combination of ranking and scoring techniques based on information from workshops, interviews and a literature review to assess institutional incentives and constraints for adaptation measures, together indicating the institutional feasibility of implementation of adaptation measures. We selected and assessed three adaptation measures relevant to agriculture in Flevoland, a province in the Netherlands: (1) improvement of water management and irrigation facilities; (2) relocation of farms; and (3) development of new crop varieties. The two main constraining CIPs for the implementation of the measures were found to be (1) heterogeneity of actors’ interests and (2) availability of resources. Based on the institutional feasibility analysis, the implementation of water management and improvement of irrigation facilities will potentially face fewer institutional constraints compared to the other two measures. We conclude that our approach proves applicable for institutional analyses of adaptation measures for current and future (climate) challenges at different levels of implementation, but that more applications are needed to test its validity and robustness.
    An international comparison of productivity change in the textile and clothing industry: a bootstrapped Malmquist index approach
    Kapelko, M. ; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. - \ 2015
    Empirical Economics 48 (2015)4. - ISSN 0377-7332 - p. 1499 - 1523.
    nonparametric frontier models - data envelopment analysis - technical efficiency - industrialized countries - technological-change - profitability change - detecting outliers - framework - progress - growth
    Firms in the textile and clothing industry operate in competitive international markets characterized by the liberalized trade after the removal of multi-fiber agreement quotas in 2005, and have to address rapid changes in consumer preferences and production technology. Hence, improving competitiveness is crucial for firm survival. Competitiveness of the sector often depends on its firms meeting their production potential. This paper analyzes productivity changes in the textile and clothing industry worldwide during the period 1995-2004. A bootstrapped Malmquist approach is used to identify the respective contributions of technical change, technical efficiency change, and scale efficiency change. Moreover, differences in productivity changes across different groups of firms are statistically assessed. Our results show a relatively small overall productivity increase for both textile and clothing firms due to positive technical change, despite declines in technical and scale efficiency. Furthermore, our results indicate that productivity and its components differ for textile firms and clothing firms, for firms in countries that benefited and did not benefit from the quotas' elimination, and for firms in different regions. © 2014 The Author(s).
    Price Volatility Transmission in Food Supply Chains: A Literature Review
    Assefa, T.T. ; Meuwissen, M.P.M. ; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M. - \ 2015
    Agribusiness 31 (2015)1. - ISSN 0742-4477 - p. 3 - 13.
    multivariate garch approach - rational-expectations - market power - sector - framework - spillover - dynamics - crisis - impact
    This paper reviews the literature on price volatility transmission in vertical food markets. The methods and major findings of the literature are discussed and avenues for future research are suggested. The literature review shows that price volatility is analyzed using a class of univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The reviewed studies conclude that price volatility transmits along food supply chains thereby exposing all chain actors to risk and uncertainty. Extension of the limited sample period, country, product, and chain stages coverage of the current literature are suggested as avenues for future research. A largely ignored aspect in the current literature is the identification and empirical testing of the role of contextual factors on the degree of price volatility transmission.
    Multi-resolution time series imagery for forest disturbance and regrowth monitoring in Queensland, Australia
    Schmidt, M. ; Lucas, R. ; Bunting, P. ; Verbesselt, J. ; Armston, J. - \ 2015
    Remote Sensing of Environment 158 (2015). - ISSN 0034-4257 - p. 156 - 168.
    reflectance fusion model - surface reflectance - aerial-photography - landsat data - vegetation - plus - phenology - framework - lidar
    High spatio-temporal resolution optical remote sensing data provide unprecedented opportunities to monitor and detect forest disturbance and loss. To demonstrate this potential, a 12-year time series (2000 to 2011) with an 8-day interval of a 30 m spatial resolution data was generated by the use of the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) with Landsat sensor observations and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data as input. The time series showed a close relationship over homogeneous forested and grassland sites, with r2 values of 0.99 between Landsat and the closest STARFM simulated data; and values of 0.84 and 0.94 between MODIS and STARFM. The time and magnitude of clearing and re-clearing events were estimated through a phenological breakpoint analysis, with 96.2% of the estimated breakpoints of the clearing event and 83.6% of the re-clearing event being within 40 days of the true clearing. The study highlights the benefits of using these moderate resolution data for quantifying and understanding land cover change in open forest environments.
    Marine ecosystem services: linking indicators to their classification
    Hattam, C. ; Atkins, J.P. ; Beaumont, N.J. ; Boerger, T. ; Boehnke-Henrichs, A. ; Burdon, D. ; Groot, R.S. de; Hoefnagel, E. ; Nunes, P.A.L.D. ; Piwowarczyk, J. ; Sastre, S. ; Austen, M.C. - \ 2015
    Ecological Indicators 49 (2015). - ISSN 1470-160X - p. 61 - 75.
    macrofauna communities - north-sea - management - valuation - framework - areas - need
    There is a multitude of ecosystem service classifications available within the literature, each with its own advantages and drawbacks. Elements of them have been used to tailor a generic ecosystem service classification for the marine environment and then for a case study site within the North Sea: the Dogger Bank. Indicators for each of the ecosystem services, deemed relevant to the case study site, were identified. Each indicator was then assessed against a set of agreed criteria to ensure its relevance and applicability to environmental management. This paper identifies the need to distinguish between indicators of ecosystem services that are entirely ecological in nature (and largely reveal the potential of an ecosystem to provide ecosystem services), indicators for the ecological processes contributing to the delivery of these services, and indicators of benefits that reveal the realized human use or enjoyment of an ecosystem service. It highlights some of the difficulties faced in selecting meaningful indicators, such as problems of specificity, spatial disconnect and the considerable uncertainty about marine species, habitats and the processes, functions and services they contribute to.
    The interaction triangle as a tool for understanding stakeholder interactions in marine ecosystem based management
    Rockmann, C. ; Leeuwen, J. van; Goldsborough, D.G. ; Kraan, M.L. ; Piet, G.J. - \ 2015
    Marine Policy 52 (2015). - ISSN 0308-597X - p. 155 - 162.
    traditional ecological knowledge - fisheries management - environmental assessment - citizen participation - resource-management - risk communication - uncertainty - governance - framework - science
    Expectations about ecosystem based management (EBM) differ due to diverging perspectives about what EBM should be and how it should work. While EBM by its nature requires trade-offs to be made between ecological, economic and social sustainability criteria, the diversity of cross-sectoral perspectives, values, stakes, and the specificity of each individual situation determine the outcome of these trade-offs. The authors strive to raise awareness of the importance of interaction between three stakeholder groups (decision makers, scientists, and other actors) and argue that choosing appropriate degrees of interaction between them in a transparent way can make EBM more effective in terms of the three effectiveness criteria salience, legitimacy, and credibility. This article therefore presents an interaction triangle in which three crucial dimensions of stakeholder interactions are discussed: (A) between decision makers and scientists, who engage in framing to foster salience of scientific input to decision making, (B) between decision makers and other actors, to shape participation processes to foster legitimacy of EBM processes, and (C) between scientists and other actors, who collaborate to foster credibility of knowledge production. Due to the complexity of EBM, there is not one optimal interaction approach; rather, finding the optimal degrees of interaction for each dimension depends on the context in which EBM is implemented, i.e. the EBM objectives, the EBM initiator’s willingness for transparency and interaction, and other context-specific factors, such as resources, trust, and state of knowledge.
    Co-evolution of soil and water conservation policy and human-environment linkages in the Yellow River Basin since 1949
    Wang, F. ; Mu, X. ; Li, R. ; Fleskens, L. ; Stringer, L.C. ; Ritsema, C.J. - \ 2015
    Science of the Total Environment 508 (2015). - ISSN 0048-9697 - p. 166 - 177.
    sustainable land management - impact - framework - science - erosion - china - state
    Policy plays a very important role in natural resource management as it lays out a government framework for guiding long-term decisions, and evolves in light of the interactions between human and environment. This paper focuses on soil and water conservation (SWC) policy in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. The problems, rural poverty, severe soil erosion, great sediment loads and high flood risks, are analyzed over the period of 1949–present using the Driving force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework as a way to organize analysis of the evolution of SWC policy. Three stages are identified in which SWC policy interacts differently with institutional, financial and technology support. In Stage 1 (1949–1979), SWC policy focused on rural development in eroded areas and on reducing sediment loads. Local farmers were mainly responsible for SWC. The aim of Stage 2 (1980–1990) was the overall development of rural industry and SWC. A more integrated management perspective was implemented taking a small watershed as a geographic interactional unit. This approach greatly improved the efficiency of SWC activities. In Stage 3 (1991 till now), SWC has been treated as the main measure for natural resource conservation, environmental protection, disaster mitigation and agriculture development. Prevention of new degradation became a priority. The government began to be responsible for SWC, using administrative, legal and financial approaches and various technologies that made large-scale SWC engineering possible. Over the historical period considered, with the implementation of the various SWC policies, the rural economic and ecological system improved continuously while the sediment load and flood risk decreased dramatically. The findings assist in providing a historical perspective that could inform more rational, scientific and effective natural resource management going forward.
    A European model and case studies for aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides
    Kennedy, M.C. ; Glass, C.R. ; Bokkers, B.G.H. ; Hart, A.D.M. ; Hamay, P. ; Kruisselbrink, J.W. ; Boer, W.J. de; Voet, H. van der; Garthwaite, D. ; Klaveren, J.D. van - \ 2015
    Food and Chemical Toxicology 79 (2015). - ISSN 0278-6915 - p. 32 - 44.
    residential exposure - framework - risk
    Exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) are assessed using risk analysis methods to protect public health. Traditionally, single sources, such as food or individual occupational sources, have been addressed. In reality, individuals can be exposed simultaneously to multiple sources. Improved regulation therefore requires the development of new tools for estimating the population distribution of exposures aggregated within an individual. A new aggregate model is described, which allows individual users to include as much, or as little, information as is available or relevant for their particular scenario. Depending on the inputs provided by the user, the outputs can range from simple deterministic values through to probabilistic analyses including characterisations of variability and uncertainty. Exposures can be calculated for multiple compounds, routes and sources of exposure. The aggregate model links to the cumulative dietary exposure model developed in parallel and is implemented in the web-based software tool MCRA. Case studies are presented to illustrate the potential of this model, with inputs drawn from existing European data sources and models. These cover exposures to UK arable spray operators, Italian vineyard spray operators, Netherlands users of a consumer spray and UK bystanders/residents. The model could also be adapted to handle non-PPP compounds.
    The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides
    Voet, H. van der; Boer, W.J. de; Kruisselbrink, J.W. ; Goedhart, P.W. ; Heijden, G.W.A.M. van der; Kennedy, M.C. ; Boon, P.E. ; Klaveren, J.D. van - \ 2015
    Food and Chemical Toxicology 79 (2015). - ISSN 0278-6915 - p. 5 - 12.
    dietary exposure - carbamate insecticides - 21st-century roadmap - chemicals - food - organophosphorus - framework - residues - project
    Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure.
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